Attached files
file | filename |
---|---|
8-K - STURM RUGER & CO INC | e606521_8k-ruger.htm |
Exhibit
99.1
Final
Transcript
|
|
Thomson
StreetEventssm
|
|
Conference Call Transcript
RGR - Q4 2009 Sturm Ruger Earnings Conference
Call
Event Date/Time: Feb 25, 2010 /
02:00PM GMT
|
1
THOMSON REUTERS
STREETEVENTS | www.streetevents.com | Contact Us
|
|
©
2010 Thomson Reuters. All rights reserved. Republication or redistribution
of Thomson Reuters content, including by framing or similar means, is
prohibited without the prior written consent of Thomson Reuters. 'Thomson
Reuters' and the Thomson Reuters logo are registered trademarks of Thomson
Reuters and its affiliated
companies.
|
Final
Transcript
Feb
25, 2010 / 02:00PM GMT, RGR - Q4 2009 Sturm Ruger Earnings
Conference Call
|
CORPORATE
PARTICIPANTS
Mike
Fifer
Sturm,
Ruger & Company, Inc - CEO
Kevin
Reid
Sturm,
Ruger & Company, Inc - General Counsel
Tom
Dineen
Sturm,
Ruger & Company, Inc - VP, Treasurer, CFO
CONFERENCE
CALL PARTICIPANTS
Jim
Barrett
CL
King & Associates - Analyst
Brett
Jordan
Avondale
Partners - Analyst
Brian
Rafn
Morgan
Dempsey Capital Management - Analyst
Dan
Kozlowski
Plaisance
Capital - Analyst
PRESENTATION
Operator
Great
day ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Sturm Ruger and Company 2009
earnings conference call. My name is Katina and I will be your coordinator for
today. At this time all participants are in listen-only mode. (Operator
instructions) I would now like to turn the presentation over to your host for
today's call, Mr. Mike Fifer, Chief Executive Officer. Please
proceed.
Mike Fifer - Sturm, Ruger & Company, Inc - CEO
Good
morning and welcome to our year-end conference call at Sturm Ruger and Company.
We'd like to start with the reading of our cautionary statement on
forward-looking statements, by Kevin Reid, our General Counsel and then we will
give you a quick overview of 2009, including the fourth quarter and we can get
right into your questions. Kevin?
Kevin Reid - Sturm, Ruger & Company, Inc - General Counsel
Thanks
Mike. As before, statements made in the course of this presentation that state
the Company's or Management's intentions, hopes, beliefs, expectations or
predictions of the future, are forward-looking statements. It is important to
note that the Company's actual results could differ materially from those
projected in such forward-looking statements.
Additional
information concerning factors that could cause actual results to differ
materially from those in the forward-looking statements is contained from time
to time in the Company's SEC filings including, but not limited to the Company's
reports on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2009 and Form 10-Q for the
first, second and third quarters of 2009. Copies of these documents may be
obtained through the Company at our website at www.Ruger.com or from the SEC.
Furthermore, Management disclaims all responsibility to update forward-looking
statements. Mike?
2
Final
Transcript
Feb
25, 2010 / 02:00PM GMT, RGR - Q4 2009 Sturm Ruger Earnings
Conference Call
|
Mike Fifer - Sturm, Ruger & Company, Inc - CEO
Thank
you Kevin. We had a very good year in 2009, with net sales of $271 million and
earnings of $1.44 per share compared with sales of $182 million and earnings of
$0.43 per share in 2008. For the fourth quarter of 2009, net sales were $64
million and earnings were $0.31 per share. For the corresponding period in 2008,
net sales were $59 million and earnings were $0.28 per share. We are pleased to
have improved fourth quarter sales and earnings compared to 2008, because the
fourth quarter of 2008 clearly benefited from the post election
surge.
Over half
of our annual sales growth, or about $50 million, was attributable to increased
sales of new products. The definition we are using for new products includes
only those major product introductions that have occurred since the beginning of
2008. That includes the LCP, the LCR and the SR-556. We are not counting our
SR-9 or any minor line extensions or additional new calibers to mature
products.
Demand
for our products appears to still be strong, as estimated sell-through of our
products from the independent distributors to retailers in 2009 increased by
approximately 40% from 2008 and 86% from 2007. This annual growth substantially
exceeds the 10% and 25% growth in National Instant Criminal Background Check
System background checks over the same period.
For the
fourth quarter of 2009 the estimated sell-through of our products from
independent distributors to retailers decreased 3% from the fourth quarter of
2008 as compared to a decrease in NICS background checks during the same period
of 9%. And for the fourth quarter of 2009 compared to the fourth quarter of
2007, the estimated sell-through of our products increased 74% compared to an
increase in NICS checks during the same period of only 16%.
In
response to the significant increase in demand in 2009, the company increased
production in 2009 by 56% from 2008 and 101% from 2007. This increase production
was facilitated by the company's implementation of lean manufacturing, an
ongoing process that started in 2006. The work we had undergone the previous 2.5
years on improving production processes paid off as we were able to quickly
scale up production once increased volumes of raw materials and castings started
to flow.
2009 was
also a great year in terms of cash flow, as $47 million of cash was generated
from operations. As a result, our balance sheet at December 31, 2009 remains
very strong. Our cash, cash equivalents and short-term investments totaled $56
million at the end of the year. Our pre-LIFO working capital of $104 million,
less the LIFO reserve of $39 million resulted in a working capital of $65
million and a current ratio of 3 to 1. We have no debt.
In 2009
capital expenditures totaled $14 million. Of that, about 40% was related to new
products, about 30% to expansion in capacity and about 30% in the traditional
replacement and maintenance. We expect to invest approximately $10 to $15
million for capital expenditures during 2010.
In 2009
we paid dividends totaling $6 million for our shareholders. Yesterday we also
announced a dividend of $0.06 per share for the fourth quarter for shareholders
of record as of March 12, 2010 and payable on March 26, 2010. On December 31,
2009 $4.7 million remained authorized for share repurchases. On February 5, 2010
we announced that our Board of Directors had expanded this repurchase program to
$10 million.
Those are
the highlights of the past year and now I'd like to respond to your questions
about that year. Operator, can we please have the first question?
QUESTION AND
ANSWER
Operator
(Operator
instructions) Our first question is from Jim Barrett, representing CL King &
Associates.
Jim Barrett - CL King & Associates - Analyst
I
had just two questions. The first, I noticed that your casting business returned
to profitability in the quarter. Is that a sustainable underlying improvement in
that business or was there something else that might explain that?
3
Final
Transcript
Feb
25, 2010 / 02:00PM GMT, RGR - Q4 2009 Sturm Ruger Earnings
Conference Call
|
Mike Fifer - Sturm, Ruger & Company, Inc - CEO
That's
a good question. I don't believe actually there's any material change in the
business. We did roll costs and I'm going to ask Tom Dineen to pitch in on
whether we rolled cost on December 31 or January 1st. That may have been what
you're seeing.
Tom Dineen - Sturm, Ruger & Company, Inc - VP, Treasurer, CFO
We
did roll costs as of 12-31-09 in the castings for pine tree.
Jim Barrett - CL King & Associates - Analyst
And
Tom, could you explain exactly what that means? I don't quite understand
that.
Tom Dineen - Sturm, Ruger & Company, Inc - VP, Treasurer, CFO
What
we ended up doing, Jim, is we held our standard costs for our castings fairly
constant for the last couple of years in terms of labor and so to better reflect
what we thought the actual cost of the castings was, we basically rolled our
standard costs as of 12-31-09 and that caused a little bit of a pickup on the
balance sheet and consequently, a credit through the P&L.
Mike Fifer - Sturm, Ruger & Company, Inc - CEO
Jim,
for everyone else on the phone, let me just talk about our castings business for
a brief minute. Castings is one of the last places in the manufacturing sector
of the business where we are looking at trying to implement lean. We had done
some of the traditional early stuff like 5F but we hadn't really developed a
good flow system in the foundry.
And what
we are trying to do, projects that we've initiated, is to basically breakup one
monolithic process into perhaps three or four mini foundries that could be
cycled on and off as requirements need. And I think that will make a big
difference long-term in making that a profitable sector. I think it's just too
big and too complicated to run in an efficient manner and it also results in
long lead times the way we do it now. If I want to cast a new prototype part it
might take three weeks now for me to get the part and I think we can get it down
to where we can get those parts in sort of four or five days if we do
this.
The
project however, is probably going to take a full 12 months before we get the
first mini-foundry really running because there's some new technologies we're
trying to implement at the same time to dramatically reduce the period of time
it takes to create the ceramic, what they call the investment, the ceramic
investment around the wax. So there's a lot in progress. A lot of our internal
efforts are focused on the foundry this year, but I don't think any of us should
realistically expect a material change in what goes on there for the better part
of 12 months.
Jim Barrett - CL King & Associates - Analyst
And Mike, can you comment on your sales, how they
progressed by month through the quarter? And that's my last question.
Mike Fifer - Sturm, Ruger & Company, Inc - CEO
My
recollection is that we're following a fairly traditional pattern that October
and November were slower months, December was a bigger month and what you often
even have in there is that the last week of December sees a fair amount of
shipment of product for example like 1022 that faced a price increase on January
1st and distributors like to really load up on those and avoid that price
increase and so we have a 3% margin improvement for them right off the bat. So
they'll request that some of those shipments come quite late in the quarter. But
that's a fairly typical pattern; it really doesn't vary much from year to
year.
Operator
Your
next question is from Brett Jordan representing Avondale Partners.
4
Final
Transcript
Feb
25, 2010 / 02:00PM GMT, RGR - Q4 2009 Sturm Ruger Earnings
Conference Call
|
Brett Jordan - Avondale Partners - Analyst
A
couple of quick questions. One, some granularity on the CapEx expectation for
2010; where do you expect to be allocated, that's on the $15
million?
Mike Fifer - Sturm, Ruger & Company, Inc - CEO
The
pattern should be much the same. I'm thinking perhaps as much as 50% will be
related to tooling up new products this year and the rest split between capacity
expansion and MRO type of CapEx. The reason I gave such a broad range is because
when I, for example, tooled up the LCP a couple of years ago, I had idle
capacity and so I wasn't starting from scratch, but a couple of the next new
products I have coming on this year, I'm going to have to start from scratch
unless things slow down a little bit and free up some machine time.
For
example, right now in my LCPs I'm running two 12-hour shifts a day and I'm
wearing out the people and I'm wearing out the machinery and I don't have any
excess capacity to devote to the next product. So, if the volume holds up, I'm
going to have to spend towards the high end and if the volume slows down a
little bit, then I should be able to spend more like the low end.
Brett Jordan - Avondale Partners - Analyst
Okay.
I guess along that line of questions, looking at the backlog and the progression
of the backlog quarter to quarter, what's the rate of fall off, of customer
order cancelation? Clearly it had spiked as people were ordering in expectation
of shortage in supply. Are you seeing any deceleration in customer attrition in
that backlog?
Mike Fifer - Sturm, Ruger & Company, Inc - CEO
No.
First off, we don't allow cancelations. We will work with a distributor to time
some of the delivery but we don't allow any cancellations. Now the one exception
was third quarter which we told you about, where we went out and actively,
deliberately canceled all the mini-14 orders and said go ahead and resubmit. And
the reason was, I had far too much on order. Early in the year that volume
represented maybe six months of sales but then all of the sudden it fell off
around June and there we were in the middle of the third quarter and it looked
like we had 18 to 24 months worth of business on the books, so we said this is
ridiculous; let's just start over. That's the only order cancelation that
occurred the entire year and we initiated it.
Okay,
so Q3 was a onetime event.
Mike Fifer - Sturm, Ruger & Company, Inc - CEO
Right.
Brett Jordan - Avondale Partners - Analyst
And
I guess you talked about new products introduced since the beginning of 2008; do
you have the ASP of the SKUs versus the original product?
Mike Fifer - Sturm, Ruger & Company, Inc - CEO
I
can tell you fairly quickly here that the LCP is on the low end, the LCR is
right dead down the middle of our average sell price, maybe it's even $20
higher, and then the 556 is almost $1,000 higher.
5
Final
Transcript
Feb
25, 2010 / 02:00PM GMT, RGR - Q4 2009 Sturm Ruger Earnings
Conference Call
|
Brett Jordan - Avondale Partners - Analyst
So
the aggregate average selling price?
Mike Fifer - Sturm, Ruger & Company, Inc - CEO
I
don't think you've seen a whole lot of change in our ASP. I think it's crept up
a little bit. Tom Dineen, do you want to check that?
Brett Jordan - Avondale Partners - Analyst
It
has crept up, certainly. I was wondering whether you had a feeling for what the
delta between post 2008 versus pre 2008 SKUs were?
Tom Dineen - Sturm, Ruger & Company, Inc - VP, Treasurer, CFO
I
don't have that at my fingertips, Brett.
Operator
(Operator
instructions) Your next question is from Brian Rafn representing Morgan Dempsey
Capital Management.
Brian Rafn - Morgan Dempsey Capital Management - Analyst
Mike,
can you give me a sense of your lean manufacturing, you started a few years ago,
certainly going to cellular and certainly dramatically decreasing the floor
footprint on your shop floor. Give me a sense as to where that process is?
Certainly always ongoing, but where might you be in completion to where you set
out goal wise?
Mike Fifer - Sturm, Ruger & Company, Inc - CEO
As
long as everybody accepts that it's an ongoing process and in fact it's not just
a manufacturing process but one that we're attempting to deploy throughout the
company, including all the administrative functions as well, it's usually the
bigger more dramatic needle moving things happen on the manufacturing side. I
would say we are really starting in casting; we are not far from starting in
some of the small parts, the low volume small parts and we've made huge progress
in some of the established product lines, meaning that we're all the way moving
forward on super cells for small steel frame revolvers, for mini-14s, next will
be super cells for the large frame revolvers, the LCR has got a wonderful cell
operation going on that.
Brian Rafn - Morgan Dempsey Capital Management - Analyst
The
sense is you guys have certainly launched a lot of new product over the last
couple of years, the Smokey Robinson-22 or the LCP LCR, the Striker, the Smokey
Robinson-556; what has been your cycle time in actually going from engineering
design to prototype to getting a working model, getting it manufactured; how
have you compressed that say over the legacy Ruger product cycles, the old batch
processing?
Mike Fifer - Sturm, Ruger & Company, Inc - CEO
Are
you talking about the R&D cycle?
Brian Rafn - Morgan Dempsey Capital Management - Analyst
Well,
I'm just talking about from the concept -- maybe you can take it from the
R&D right through production. Give me a sense or is it about the same? I'm
just getting a sense as to how that process from concept to actual working
production, has it been a 12-month process, 18-months and has it changed, has
there been a delta change over the last two years?
6
Final
Transcript
Feb
25, 2010 / 02:00PM GMT, RGR - Q4 2009 Sturm Ruger Earnings
Conference Call
|
Mike Fifer - Sturm, Ruger & Company, Inc - CEO
It's
been probably 12 months longer than we initially planned on any of the most
recent product introductions. It turns out that designing a well- functioning
firearm is really, really difficult. You've got pressures anywhere from sort of
40,000 psi that happen in a microsecond or less in a mechanical part and lots of
times what you design in a 3D CAD system and it works perfectly in the computer,
when you put it in real life and have that enormous pressure wave and that
microburst, it doesn't actually operate in real life the way it did on the
computer.
And also
some of the designs like the LCR, it's probably the first truly radical, new,
double-action revolver design in many, many, many decades and there hadn't been
anybody at Ruger who had done that kind of design and there does not today exist
anyone at any of the other firearms companies whose done a completely brand new
design of that magnitude. So there was a lot of learning process going
on.
I will
tell you on the positive side is that we have a very good process that's being
adapted throughout the company and people are getting onboard with it, they're
learning it, we're seeing some real benefits from it. And so I think that the
first step won't necessarily speed up everything we're doing but it will make it
more bullet proof and then over time that will speed it up as well.
Brian Rafn - Morgan Dempsey Capital Management - Analyst
Okay.
Give me a sense as you launch new product, what kind of mix, and certainly you
mentioned the radical change in the SR-556, but what mix of a brand new class of
firearms, a new frame, so to speak, versus the old kind of Ruger legacy, the
derivatives, where you might change a caliber or a boring or a new grips or you
put a 1911 grip on the 22 caliber; do you have a sense of if it is that
difficult to bring out a new class of firearms, what kind of mix between new
firearms versus just model line extensions or derivatives products might you go
forward?
Mike Fifer - Sturm, Ruger & Company, Inc - CEO
The
vast majority of our effort and our staffing is dedicated to new platform
products. What we're trying to do is we're trying to staff up full teams, for
example, I'd like to have two rifle teams; one for the modern sporting rifle and
one for sort of all the other rifles and then each of those would be responsible
to bring out a new platform every 12 to 18 months. And then the same thing on
the revolver side and then probably I need three teams on the semiautomatic
pistol side. And we're not there yet. We're looking for engineers but we have
brought a lot on board and I think you'll see some great new products from
us.
Brian Rafn - Morgan Dempsey Capital Management - Analyst
Okay.
A sense for as you look at where you're running you had mentioned running two
shifts of 12 hours; if you look at Prescott, Arizona and Newport, New Hampshire,
can you give us an idea of how many shifts you're running or is it really varied
down to the cell and the product line?
Mike Fifer - Sturm, Ruger & Company, Inc - CEO
It
varies down to the cell and the product line very much and that changes
throughout the year. As an overall company we don't have great apparent
seasonality. Individual products have enormous seasonality.
Brian Rafn - Morgan Dempsey Capital Management - Analyst
Could
you then look at what you guys may have certainly paid in overtime or do you
have an overtime budget? Have you run beyond that or are there any products that
are running three shifts or is two shifts the top for whatever product, like the
LCR, LCP?
Mike Fifer - Sturm, Ruger & Company, Inc - CEO
What
you'll have is the max will be two 12-hour machining shifts. On assembly we
pretty much will do two 8-hour assembly shifts, sometimes two 10-hour assembly
shifts. Generally assembly you don't really want a staff on a third shift if you
can help it. It takes a while to train people to do it really well and once
you've got them going, you've got two good shifts going, you leave it at
that.
7
Final
Transcript
Feb
25, 2010 / 02:00PM GMT, RGR - Q4 2009 Sturm Ruger Earnings
Conference Call
|
Brian Rafn - Morgan Dempsey Capital Management - Analyst
Okay.
You brought in Robert Gates on the police and military sale side; is that a
focus going forward? Historically, legacy Ruger has always been pretty selective
in that area. They have not liked discounting. They have not liked police
departments that want to give you their scrap guns back. What's your strategy in
that area going forward?
Mike Fifer - Sturm, Ruger & Company, Inc - CEO
We
talked about bringing a gentleman of Bob Gates' capabilities onboard for a while
now but concluded we needed to expand our product line so they actually have a
portfolio of products to take out there and sell and we're making progress in
that regard. We've got a few more planned product lines to come out to fill his
bag.
So this
is the early stages you're seeing here where he's going out and establishing
both military and police relationships and as those start to mature we hope to
have a few more products for him to go out and show them. And these are pretty
long lead time efforts, to build those relationships, to even be invited to some
of the events where you can demo new products and talk about your capabilities.
We're also slightly going out and expanding our LE distribution network. We
didn't have very many LE distributors and we are significantly increasing that,
and we've also got Bob looking at international sales force.
Brian Rafn - Morgan Dempsey Capital Management - Analyst
Okay.
Mike, on the military side are you seeing military procurement of firearms, is
there more differentiation or more standardization, in other words, in the US
would the Marine snipers be carrying a different sidearm than say the Navy Seals
or would the Army be carrying something different than the military police for
the US Air Force and are you seeing smaller, more fragmented bids or are you
seeing the military going to more of a standard across the spectrum, a full
allocation for all branches?
Mike Fifer - Sturm, Ruger & Company, Inc - CEO
I
think we're so new to this, I can't give you a reasonable answer. What I've
heard anecdotally from our guys is that you want to use the special forces guys
to use some of their discretionary money to try out your product, because
whatever those boys have, everybody else wants.
Brian Rafn - Morgan Dempsey Capital Management - Analyst
Okay.
I'll just ask one more and get back in queue. You guys certainly have focused in
new products on the LCR, the LCP, the smaller, more lightweight, more mobile,
more concealable pistol or revolver; when you look at the top of the product
line in the bigger guns like the 50 caliber Barrick, is that a business being
that you're going into the military, that instead of getting into the smaller
guns, the bigger guns as you came out with the SR-556, is that an incremental
area where you have interest or are you guys going to continue with your focus
on the sportsman and the hunter and that type of end market?
Mike Fifer - Sturm, Ruger & Company, Inc - CEO
Specifically
with regard to large caliber sniper rifle, a phrase we use is that's a long road
to a small house and I think there are much larger commercial opportunities and
as much as we all have our own personal favorites about items on the product
plan, we're very, very strict about looking at the financial returns and using
that as a guideline for what to focus on and put all our engineering
resources.
Operator
Your
next question is from Dan Kozlowski representing Plaisance Capital.
8
Final
Transcript
Feb
25, 2010 / 02:00PM GMT, RGR - Q4 2009 Sturm Ruger Earnings
Conference Call
|
Dan Kozlowski - Plaisance Capital - Analyst
Obviously
great job in 2009. Question for you on share buyback. At one point late in Q4,
Ruger was arguably one of the cheapest stocks on an EV to EBITDA basis in the
market, you generate a considerable amount of free cash flow relative to your
market cap and EV and yet it appears the company did not buy back any shares at
that time, so while we applaud the authorization increase, can you provide some
color as to why or why not and when you will pull the trigger on a share
repurchase based on valuation? No one has better information than you do. The
metrics seem to be coming in quite well and everything seems to be rolling
along, yet you seem to have held the line on share repurchase. So could you
provide some color on that?
Mike Fifer - Sturm, Ruger & Company, Inc - CEO
Well,
I think we've missed some opportunities there, particularly a year ago we missed
a huge opportunity when the stock was way down below $5.00 and we're learning
from that. Our outlook is much improved now from even where I thought it was a
year ago. I really thought that the post election surge would be very
short-lived and in some product categories it was short-lived but others seem to
be quite sustained. I think we brought a lot of new shooters into the industry
and I also think our long-term outlook is even better now than it was a year ago
and I think that can make us a little bit more bullish. We generated quite a bit
more cash in the meantime, so I think you'll see us being a bit more aggressive
on the stock buyback.
I'll tell
you how we do it; we wait until after four business days after the end of the
quarter and then typically somewhere in that following week we file a 10b5-1
plan for the company that outlines how much we'll spend and at what different
stock prices, how much to buy and then it executes on its own and so late in the
quarter if there's a sudden stock change like we saw a year ago, where I think
it was in November or December, the stock price dropped really low, we were not
able to take advantage of that and suddenly change the plan. Once the plan is
submitted and locked in, that's what it is for the quarter.
Dan Kozlowski - Plaisance Capital - Analyst
Okay
thank you. A couple more questions, the new SR9c, can you talk about the success
that's had or the challenges it's had in the market? From everything we read
sort of on a grassroots level, the product has been very well received. It seems
to be a significant upgrade over the SR9. Could you talk a little bit about that
particular category and how the SR9c will impact your ability to grow that card?
And then as a follow-up to that, I noticed in the Pros, in the 10-K there was a
statement saying that the backlog had increased to $70 million as of February
1st, which is somewhat materially better than where the backlog stood at 12-31,
so could you give some color and tell me if those interrelate?
Mike Fifer - Sturm, Ruger & Company, Inc - CEO
They're
very much related. The SR9c is being very well received. People who hold it
really like the feel of it in their hands and the fortunate ones who get to take
it out to the range are just really impressed by it. This is a gun that it's
hard to tell on paper but when you pick it up and go ahead and take it to the
range, it's really something else. So there's been huge demand for that, but in
general we had a very good show season in January and early February, which is
when typically all the distributor shows, plus the Shot Show, we write a lot of
business. It's something that happens every year; this is normal.
It's
probably not at all unusual for the backlog to be higher at the time the 10-K is
published than it was on December 31; that's something you might expect just
about every year. But in this case it was fueled quite a bit by the popularity
of all our new products. The LCP still did extraordinarily well, the LCR did
very well, the SR9c did very well, even our old P95 was very popular, so
handguns did exceptionally well in the order writing season. 10/22s did just
fine; we were pleased with that and long guns did about what we'd expected,
which was they didn't knock the roof off, but we're busy there.
Dan Kozlowski - Plaisance Capital - Analyst
Okay
great. Last question, on shotguns, this is an area where the new product
development has been sort of dormant for a long time, although there was some
information in the marketplace saying that you had hired a Chief Engineer for
shotgun development and that was quite some time ago. So is there an intention
in that space to come out with a new platform, something that could move the
needle and give Ruger an increased presence in that vertical or is the overall
demand for hunting just something that kind of downgrades the shotgun
development on the list of priorities when you think about your total
opportunity side?
9
Final
Transcript
Feb
25, 2010 / 02:00PM GMT, RGR - Q4 2009 Sturm Ruger Earnings
Conference Call
|
Mike Fifer - Sturm, Ruger & Company, Inc - CEO
The
short answer is, yes, we're excited about it. He's got some great things on
paper and we're moving to the prototype stage and we're adding to the staff so
we can move that along a little faster.
Dan Kozlowski - Plaisance Capital - Analyst
Okay,
the question really is you see market opportunities in the shotgun space that if
you can develop the right product and have the right timing, there could be a
material business opportunity in that vertical?
Mike Fifer - Sturm, Ruger & Company, Inc - CEO
Yes.
Now, keep in mind that when I tell you we're moving from the computer stage to
the prototype stage, we're still in the 9 to 12-month period away from when
we're satisfied that we've got a gun that we're going into production with and
launching a product. That's not three months away, it's more like 9 to 12-months
away. We've got to build a bunch of prototypes, we've got to test out some of
these theories because we're not just doing a me-too, we're coming out with good
stuff and then it will take a lot of field testing, which is kind of fun, then
we'll bring it out. And I think also by then we might see a rebound in that
shotgun market. Remember, the shotgun market is one of the absolute slowest
markets today in the industry. The shotgun guys are not having that much
fun.
Dan Kozlowski - Plaisance Capital - Analyst
Thank
you and again, congratulations, phenomenal 2009 and good stuff for 2010, so keep
up the good work. We appreciate it.
Operator
Your
next question is a follow-up from Brett Jordan representing Avondale
Partners.
Brett Jordan - Avondale
Partners - Analyst
A
quick follow-up on that question; long guns ex the 556 I think you said didn't
knock the roof off. Were long guns up year-over-year in the fourth quarter or
was that a category that declined?
Mike Fifer - Sturm, Ruger & Company, Inc - CEO
Let's
see, a year ago the big news was any gun that might be affected by a new assault
weapons ban, so pretty much any center fire semiautomatic and for us at the time
that was all mini-14s so I am positive that mini-14s were down year-over-year
but I doubt there was much change to the bolt actions. I think the bolt actions
did fine and the 10/22s are up.
Brett Jordan - Avondale Partners - Analyst
And
bolt action, I guess you look at the order book at a shot show, is the hunting
category showing any signs of life? I guess clearly shotguns are still soft, but
is there any improvement on the recreational side?
Mike Fifer - Sturm, Ruger & Company, Inc - CEO
We
never suffered to the degree that we heard other folks complaining, so if we'd
been the only one out there talking about the hunting category, I don't think
you would have heard a lot of complaints on our part.
10
Final
Transcript
Feb
25, 2010 / 02:00PM GMT, RGR - Q4 2009 Sturm Ruger Earnings
Conference Call
|
Operator
Your
next question is a follow-up from Brian Rafn representing Morgan Dempsey Capital
Management.
Brian Rafn - Morgan Dempsey Capital Management - Analyst
Mike,
on the shotgun side with your kind of reentry into the military and police, is
there any thought in the shotgun area versus the old standby, side by side or
over and under, to begin building a shotgun perhaps riot gun, assault gun,
because of special forces, police and that use shotguns and that's not something
you historically have built in the past.
Mike Fifer - Sturm, Ruger & Company, Inc - CEO
The
first thing you're going to see from us probably is a reengineered red label
over and under that's easier to manufacture and cost less to manufacture but
still delivers all the benefits. And then after that you're going to see some
new platform products that we don't currently have and of course you should
expect us to analyze the market and figure out where the best opportunities are
and we're going to go right after them.
Brian Rafn - Morgan Dempsey Capital Management - Analyst
Okay.
You guys were doing some demolition on the Dorr Woolen building; where does that
stand right now?
Mike Fifer - Sturm, Ruger & Company, Inc - CEO
Basically
the external demolition is complete. We knocked down most of the building and
we've done some upgrading and then everything froze and got covered by snow, so
we'll finish up some of the external touchup work in the spring and we're just
finishing up some of the fit-up of the remaining space. That Dorr Woolen
building, like a lot of old mill buildings, was built over many decades with
different expansions and the part we saved was the front office building where
we'll house our LE, military and export and then quite a new warehouse in the
back, which will be our finished goods warehouse going forward. A little bit of
fit-up but basically we're done.
Brian Rafn - Morgan Dempsey Capital Management - Analyst
Okay.
Your inventory levels, rebuilding safety stock, you guys certainly published the
numbers, I think you said you had 20,100 at factory level and about 96,000 plus
in the wholesale channel. Your sense in 2010 is you're rebuilding back to a
level higher than that or kind of give us a sense going forward on your safety
stock?
Mike Fifer - Sturm, Ruger & Company, Inc - CEO
Yes,
we expect to increase inventories throughout the year. I don't have a specific
number for you because I've been wrong every other time I've tried to estimate
what we would get to, usually because demand was much stronger than we thought
it would be and we couldn't get there. We are watching what the distributors
sell to the retailers very, very closely. We meet several times a month and go
through line by line by line to see exactly what's selling through and that
guides our production and we are very cautiously and carefully saying, for
example, if there are 100 units of day of SKU ABC are selling, maybe we'll build
one-tenth, where we can. Sometimes we can't. Some products are moving so well
that like I said, we're doing two 12-hour shifts and we just can't build
anymore.
Brian Rafn - Morgan Dempsey Capital Management - Analyst
Okay.
Give me a sense on the M&A side, you're out looking, obviously you're not
going to disclose what you'd be willing to do, but how broad a category, if you
were looking, you're building cash, how broad of ancillary accessories, would be
you looking at for the Ruger portfolio slings or holsters or grips, laser
targets, scopes, would you get into ballistic armor or Kevlar vests? Is there
any limitation or would you stay more on the firearms side?
11
Final
Transcript
Feb
25, 2010 / 02:00PM GMT, RGR - Q4 2009 Sturm Ruger Earnings
Conference Call
|
Mike Fifer - Sturm, Ruger & Company, Inc - CEO
I'll
tell you, we got frustrated looking at firearms companies because they were
basically almost nobody for sale and the few that were for sale had completely
unrealistic expectations, sort of at the height of the market and so at that
point we started looking farther afield. However, we're sensing a change as
things slow down a little bit, particularly for certain categories and so I
think firearms companies are starting to come on the market again at an
accelerating pace.
And I
think what we've decided to do is to focus back on those for the moment and to
look for opportunities that will move the needle. I don't really want to try to
build a separate business unit out of a lot of $2 to $5 million acquisitions if
we can be a little more patient and nail a big one.
Brian Rafn - Morgan Dempsey Capital Management - Analyst
Okay.
On the steel casting side, what type of end products would you be as you look to
mill, you're going into the mini mill layout, what type of end products would
you be looking for in the casting side business?
Mike Fifer - Sturm, Ruger & Company, Inc - CEO
First
off, quite a lot of the volume is used to take care of our own internally and
even within that, there's heavier casting use on mature products than there are
on the brand new products, so eventually we've got to build up some of the
external and we brought a new salesman on board last year to look at that, we've
also expanded one of our better reps we've dramatically expanded their
territory, one of the independent reps.
Folks
that are out shopping for investment casting are either looking for price, which
may lead them offshore if they're allowed to do it, if they don't have export
control, or they're looking for rapid turnaround and one of those two usually
drives them. And frankly, no domestic investment casting house has been able to
compete really on price if somebody has a lot of patience and can take very long
lead times, but I think the mini mill approach and some of process changes we're
hoping we'll be successful with that dramatically reduce the lead time, will
give us an opportunity to go after that segment of business which hopefully
would have much better margins than the sort of classic model of just trying to
cover your variable costs and absorb a little bit of overhead. We're trying to
avoid that.
Brian Rafn - Morgan Dempsey Capital Management - Analyst
Okay.
Thanks guys, good job.
Operator
There
are no further audio questions at this time.
Kevin Reid - Sturm, Ruger & Company, Inc - General Counsel
We
did receive one question via the internet you may want to comment on, Mike. One
of our listeners has asked, with a strong quarter, just questioning why the
$0.06 dividend that was declared?
Mike Fifer - Sturm, Ruger & Company, Inc - CEO
Our
dividend is tied very much to an internal measure that we publish once or twice
a year where we're looking at really the cash drivers in the business and when
you have LIFO income that's not a cash driver, in fact that's a cash drain
because you've got to pay Uncle Sam some more taxes and so you'll see that we'll
certainly publish that when we get to the annual meeting, but it's close to
reported earnings but you've got to pull out some of the non-cash things that
boost earnings like LIFO. And I think the $0.06 actually came pretty close to
our ratio of 15% of that pretax adjusted operating earnings. So I think the
formula is actually still pretty close. I may have done a little bit of rounding
from $0.063 or something to $0.06 but it's pretty close.
12
Final
Transcript
Feb
25, 2010 / 02:00PM GMT, RGR - Q4 2009 Sturm Ruger Earnings
Conference Call
|
Operator
(Operator
instructions)
Mike Fifer - Sturm, Ruger & Company, Inc - CEO
If
that's all the questions, I'd like to thank everybody for participating and look
forward to seeing you all at our annual meeting. I hope as many as possible will
attend. We look forward to seeing you then and discussing the
business.
Operator
Ladies
and gentlemen, thank you for your participation in today's conference. This
concludes your presentation. You may now disconnect. Good day.
DISCLAIMER
Thomson
Reuters reserves the right to make changes to documents, content, or other
information on this web site without obligation to notify any person of
such changes.
In
the conference calls upon which Event Transcripts are based, companies may
make projections or other forward-looking statements regarding a variety
of items. Such forward-looking statements are based upon current
expectations and involve risks and uncertainties. Actual results may
differ materially from those stated in any forward-looking statement based
on a number of important factors and risks, which are more specifically
identified in the companies' most recent SEC filings. Although the
companies mayindicate and believe that the assumptions underlying the
forward-looking statements are reasonable, any of the assumptions could
prove inaccurate or incorrect and, therefore, there can be no assurance
that the results contemplated in the forward-looking statements will be
realized.
THE
INFORMATION CONTAINED IN EVENT TRANSCRIPTS IS A TEXTUAL REPRESENTATION OF
THE APPLICABLE COMPANY'S CONFERENCE CALL AND WHILE EFFORTS ARE MADE TO
PROVIDE AN ACCURATE TRANSCRIPTION, THERE MAY BE MATERIAL ERRORS,
OMISSIONS, OR INACCURACIES IN THE REPORTING OF THE SUBSTANCE OF THE
CONFERENCE CALLS. IN NO WAY DOES THOMSON REUTERS OR THE APPLICABLE COMPANY
OR THE APPLICABLE COMPANY ASSUME ANY RESPONSIBILITY FOR ANY INVESTMENT OR
OTHER DECISIONS MADE BASED UPON THE INFORMATION PROVIDED ON
THIS WEB SITE OR IN ANY EVENT TRANSCRIPT. USERS ARE ADVISED TO REVIEW THE
APPLICABLE COMPANY'S CONFERENCE CALL ITSELF AND THE APPLICABLE COMPANY'S
SEC FILINGS BEFORE MAKING ANY INVESTMENT OR OTHER DECISIONS.
© 2010
Thomson Reuters. All Rights Reserved.
|
13