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| 8-K - 8-K - Aleris Corp | alerisform8-k4q19earningsr.htm |
| EX-99.1 - EXHIBIT 99.1 - Aleris Corp | a4q19earningsreleaser2.htm |
EARNINGS PRESENTATION Fourth Quarter & Full Year 2019 Aleris Corporation March 18, 2020
Forward-Looking and Other Information IMPORTANT INFORMATION This information is current only as of its date and may have changed. We undertake no obligation to update this information in light of new information, future events or otherwise. This information contains certain forecasts and other forward looking information concerning our business, prospects, financial condition and results of operations, and we are not making any representation or warranty that this information is accurate or complete. See “Forward-Looking Information” below. BASIS OF PRESENTATION We are a direct wholly owned subsidiary of Aleris Corporation. Aleris Corporation currently conducts its business and operations through us and our consolidated subsidiaries. As used in this presentation, unless otherwise specified or the context otherwise requires, “Aleris,” “we,” “our,” “us,” “ and the “Company” refer to Aleris International, Inc. and its consolidated subsidiaries. Notwithstanding the foregoing, with respect to the historical financial information and other data presented in this presentation, unless otherwise specified or the context requires, “Aleris,” “we,” “our,” “us,” and the “Company’ refer to Aleris Corporation. We completed the sale of our recycling and specification alloys and extrusions businesses in the first quarter of 2015. We have reported these businesses as discontinued operations for all periods presented, and reclassified the results of operations of these businesses as discontinued operations. Except as otherwise indicated, the discussion of the Company’s business and financial information throughout this presentation refers to the Company’s continuing operations and the financial position and results of operations of its continuing operations. FORWARD-LOOKING INFORMATION Certain statements contained in this presentation are “forward-looking statements” within the meaning of the federal securities laws. Statements under headings with “Outlook” in the title and statements about the Merger and our beliefs and expectations and statements containing the words “may,” “could,” “would,” “should,” “will,” “believe,” “expect,” “anticipate,” “plan,” “estimate,” “target,” “project,” “look forward to,” “intend” and similar expressions intended to connote future events and circumstances constitute forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements include statements about, among other things, future costs and prices of commodities, production volumes, industry trends, anticipated cost savings, anticipated benefits from new products, facilities, acquisitions or divestitures, projected results of operations, achievement of production efficiencies, capacity expansions, future prices and demand for our products and estimated cash flows and sufficiency of cash flows to fund operations, capital expenditures and debt service obligations, as well as statements regarding trade cases, tariffs and other governmental actions. Forward-looking statements involve known and unknown risks and uncertainties, which could cause actual results to differ materially from those contained in or implied by any forward-looking statement. Important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from the forward-looking statements include, but are not limited to, the following: (1) our ability to successfully implement our business strategy; (2) the success of past and future acquisitions or divestitures; (3) the cyclical nature of the aluminum industry, material adverse changes in the aluminum industry or our end-uses, such as global and regional supply and demand conditions for aluminum and aluminum products, and changes in our customers’ industries; (4) increases in the cost, or limited availability, of raw materials and energy; (5) our ability to enter into effective metal, energy and other commodity derivatives or arrangements with customers to manage effectively our exposure to commodity price fluctuations and changes in the pricing of metals, especially London Metal Exchange-based aluminum prices; (6) our ability to generate sufficient cash flows to fund our operations and capital expenditure requirements and to meet our debt obligations; (7) competitor pricing activity, competition of aluminum with alternative materials and the general impact of competition in the industry end-uses we serve; (8) our ability to retain the services of certain members of our management; (9) the loss of order volumes from any of our largest customers; (10) our ability to retain customers, a substantial number of whom do not have long-term contractual arrangements with us; (11) risks of investing in and conducting operations on a global basis, including political, social, economic, currency and regulatory factors (such as the outbreak of COVID-19); (12) variability in general economic or political conditions on a global or regional basis; (13) current environmental liabilities and the cost of compliance with and liabilities under health and safety laws; (14) labor relations (i.e., disruptions, strikes or work stoppages) and labor costs; (15) our internal controls over financial reporting and our disclosure controls and procedures may not prevent all possible errors that could occur; (16) our levels of indebtedness and debt service obligations, including changes in our credit ratings, material increases in our cost of borrowing or the failure of financial institutions to fulfill their commitments to us under committed facilities; (17) our ability to access credit or capital markets; (18) the possibility that we may incur additional indebtedness in the future; (19) limitations on operating our business and incurring additional indebtedness as a result of covenant restrictions under our indebtedness, and our ability to pay amounts due under our outstanding indebtedness; and (20) risks related to the Merger, including the possibility that the Merger may not be consummated; and (21) other factors discussed in our filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission, including the sections entitled “Risk Factors” contained therein. Investors, potential investors and other readers are urged to consider these factors carefully in evaluating the forward-looking statements and are cautioned not to place undue reliance on such forward-looking statements. We undertake no obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statements, whether in response to new information, futures events or otherwise, except as otherwise required by law. NON-GAAP INFORMATION The non-GAAP financial measures contained in this presentation (including, without limitation, EBITDA, Adjusted EBITDA, commercial margin, and variations thereof) are not measures of financial performance calculated in accordance with U.S. GAAP and should not be considered as alternatives to net income and loss attributable to Aleris Corporation or any other performance measure derived in accordance with GAAP or as alternatives to cash flows from operating activities as a measure of our liquidity. Non- GAAP measures have limitations as analytical tools and should be considered in addition to, not in isolation or as a substitute for, or as superior to, our measures of financial performance prepared in accordance with GAAP. Management believes that certain non-GAAP financial measures may provide investors with additional meaningful comparisons between current results and results in prior periods. Management uses non-GAAP financial measures as performance metrics and believes these measures provide additional information commonly used by the holders of our 2023 Junior Priority Senior Notes and parties to our Term Loan Facility and the ABL Facility with respect to the ongoing performance of our underlying business activities, as well as our ability to meet our future debt service, capital expenditure and working capital needs. We calculate our non-GAAP financial measures by eliminating the impact of a number of items we do not consider indicative of our ongoing operating performance, and certain other items. You are encouraged to evaluate each adjustment and the reasons we consider it appropriate for supplemental analysis. See “Appendix.” INDUSTRY INFORMATION Information regarding market and industry statistics contained in this presentation is based on information from third party sources as well as estimates prepared by us using certain assumptions and our knowledge of these industries. Our estimates, in particular as they relate to our general expectations concerning the aluminum industry, involve risks and uncertainties and are subject to changes based on various factors, including those discussed under “Risk Factors” in our filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. WEBSITE POSTING We use our investor website (investor.aleris.com) as a channel of distribution of Company information. The information we post through this channel may be deemed material. Accordingly, investors should monitor this channel, in addition to following our press releases, Securities and Exchange Commission ("SEC") filings, and public conference calls and webcasts. The content of our website is not, however, a part of this presentation. 2
Fourth Quarter & Full Year Overview 4Q & FY Adjusted EBITDA ($M) +41% ▪ Record 4Q19 Adjusted EBITDA of $80M and Full Year 2019 Adjusted EBITDA of $388M $388 – Global aerospace volumes increased on strong +33% $276 demand and regional growth in Asia Pacific $61 $80 – Global automotive volumes up on higher North 4Q18 4Q19 2018 2019 America demand; Europe automotive volumes Adjusted EBITDA per ton ($/t) unfavorably impacted by regional demand softness +43% due to lower automotive production +45% – North America mix/price and metal offset lower volumes $431 $452 $297 $316 4Q18 4Q19 2018 2019 Significant year over year improvement in Adjusted EBITDA & Adjusted EBITDA per ton 3
Key Global End Uses 4Q YoY Growth 2019 YoY Growth Aleris Volume Drivers ▪ Global volume growth benefitted from strong demand Aerospace 28% 33% ▪ Record shipment levels in Zhenjiang ▪ Aircraft backlogs remain strong ▪ Increased shipments in North America Automotive (1%) 37% ▪ Europe auto production decline impacting demand ▪ Light weighting / electrification drive long term growth ▪ Reduced demand as result of Europe automotive weakness Heat (21%) (13%) Exchanger ▪ Customers adjusting inventory levels 4
Key Regional End Uses 4Q YoY Growth 2019 YoY Growth Aleris Volume Drivers N.A. ▪ Continued demand choppiness in the housing sector Building & (3%) (6%) ▪ Customers managing inventories at year-end Construction ▪ Noteworthy uptick in fundamentals in late 4Q ▪ Shipments impacted by mix shift to Automotive N.A. ▪ Customer demand continued to be stable Distribution (31%) (36%) ▪ Competing against significant influx of imports ▪ Demand continued to be stable N.A. (2%) 13% Truck Trailer ▪ Record dry van backlogs being worked down EU Regional ▪ Weak industrial demand Commercial (25%) (8%) ▪ Increased import presence having an impact Plate & Sheet ▪ Strategic mix upgrade providing benefits 5
Adjusted EBITDA Bridges ($M) 4Q19 vs. 4Q18 90 80 ($5) $4 ($2) $12 70 $10 60 $80 50 $61 40 4Q18 Volume / Mix Price / Inflation Productivity Currency/ 4Q19 Metal Spreads Translation/ Other 2019 vs. 2018 420 ($30) ($2) $3 360 $104 300 $37 240 $388 180 $276 120 60 4Q18 YTD Volume / Mix Price / Inflation Productivity Currency/ 4Q19 YTD Metal Spreads Translation/ Other 6
North America Volume (kT) Segment Adjusted EBITDA ($M) -0% 518 517 $257 -4% $162 119 114 $32 $52 2018 2019 4Q18 4Q19 2018 2019 4Q18 4Q19 Adj. EBITDA / ton $313 $497 $266 $461 4Q Adjusted EBITDA Bridge ($M) 4Q19 Performance 60 ▪ Automotive volumes up due to demand growth; B&C and Truck Trailer down slightly; Distribution down from strategic mix shift 50 ($3) $4 and increased foreign imports $14 ▪ Improved mix/price, metal spreads, and favorable change in 40 manufacturing cost absorption more than offset decrease in $52 $5 overall volumes 30 ▪ Productivity more than offset cost inflation $32 20 4Q18 Volume / Mix Price / Metal Inflation Productivity 4Q19 Spreads 7
Metal Update $1.50 $0.60 $1.40 $0.55 $1.30 $0.50 $1.20 $0.45 $1.10 $0.40 $1.00 $0.35 $0.90 $0.30 $0.80 $0.25 $0.70 $0.60 $0.20 $0.50 $0.15 Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec 2015 2016 2016 2016 2016 2017 2017 2017 2017 2018 2018 2018 2018 2019 2019 2019 2019 P1020 (left axis) Weighted Painted Siding, Mixed Low Copper, Sheet Spread 1Platts, Aleris Management Analysis, January 2020 Spreads remain elevated at historical highs 8
Europe Volume (kT) Segment Adjusted EBITDA ($M) -6% 330 311 $129 $125 -15% 77 65 $31 $22 2018 2019 4Q18 4Q19 2018 2019 4Q18 4Q19 Adj. EBITDA / ton $388 $403 $394 $341 4Q Adjusted EBITDA Bridge ($M) 4Q19 Performance 35 ▪ Solid mix improvements partly offset the volume decline due to regional demand softness 30 ($3) ($1) ▪ Unfavorable productivity resulted from lower production ($2) 25 requirements and unplanned outage in Duffel from weaker ($1) $31 ($2) demand in the region 20 ▪ Negative net impact of currency changes $22 15 4Q18 Volume / Mix Price / Metal Inflation Productivity Currency/ 4Q19 Spreads Translation/ Other 9
Asia Pacific Volume (kT) Segment Adjusted EBITDA ($M) 19% 35 $43 29 +21% $22 $14 8 9 $7 2018 2019 4Q18 4Q19 2018 2019 4Q18 4Q19 Adj. EBITDA / ton $754 $1,217 $973 $1,571 4Q Adjusted EBITDA Bridge ($M) 4Q19 Performance 16 ($1) ▪ Aerospace shipments up 47% YoY due to new contracts 14 12 $8 ▪ Improved mix of products sold driving higher Adjusted 10 EBITDA/ton 8 $14 6 4 $7 2 0 4Q18 Volume / Mix Price / Metal Spreads 4Q19 10
Cash Flow and LTM Working Capital Net Cash Flow ($M) Total LTM Working Capital Days 25% 4Q18 4Q19 2019 95 90 22% 22% 85 Cash Provided by Operating Activities $90 $73 $47 80 75 Capital Expenditures (32) (52) (126) 70 90 65 78 78 Other (1) (0) (1) 60 55 Net Cash Before Financing $57 $21 ($80) 50 2017 2018 2019 Days % of Sales 11
Capital Structure & Liquidity Overview Capital Expenditures Summary ($M)1 Liquidity Summary ($M) $358 12/31/2019 $8 Cash and Restricted Cash3 $62 $298 $10 Availability under ABL Facility 291 $353 $208 Liquidity $276 $7 $201 Capital Structure ($M) $140-$1502 $126 12/31/2019 $148 $108 $3 $7 3 $7 Cash and Restricted Cash $62 $29 $52 $116 $1 ABL Facility 305 $88 $2 $74 $72 $53 $49 Term Loan Facility4 1,084 2023 Junior Priority Notes4 400 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 4Q19 2020E Non-Recourse China Loan Facilities4 149 Other Growth North America ABS Project & Other Upgrades Maintenance Other4,5 25 Net Debt $1,900 1Excludes discontinued operations CapEx of $15M in 2015 2Guidance does not include capitalized interest 3Includes $7.5M of restricted cash for China Loan Facility payments 6 4Amounts exclude applicable premiums and discounts LTM Adjusted EBITDA $388 5Other includes $25.1M of finance lease liabilities and excludes $45M of exchangeable notes 6See prior SEC filing for applicable reconciliations to GAAP financial measures 7Excludes Non-Recourse China Loan Facilities Net Debt / LTM Adj. EBITDA 4.9x 8Secured debt includes outstanding ABL Facility balance, Term Loan Facility, and 2023 Junior Priority Notes Note: Certain amounts may not foot as they represent the calculated totals based on actual amounts and not the rounded amounts presented in Net Recourse Debt7 / LTM Adj. EBITDA 4.5x these charts and tables Net Secured Debt8 / LTM Adj. EBITDA 4.4x Capex normalizing; overall strong liquidity and deleveraging continues 12
Outlook ▪ 2020 full year segment income and Adjusted EBITDA expected to be lower than prior year ▪ We expect to generate positive cash flow in 2020 ▪ First quarter 2020 segment income and Adjusted EBITDA expected to be lower than first quarter of 2019 ▪ North America volumes expected to benefit from improved US housing industry conditions and higher distribution volume; however increasing imports may limit our ability to realize higher distribution volumes and may also negatively impact rolling margins ▪ Global aerospace volumes expected to be lower as a result of the Boeing 737MAX production curtailments ▪ Global automotive volumes expected to be lower based on continued demand softness in Europe and customer right-sizing of inventories in North America ▪ Uncertainty associated with the impact of the corona virus 13
APPENDIX 14
4Q Adjusted EBITDA Reconciliation ($M) For the three months ended For the year ended December 31, December 31, 2019 2018 2019 2018 Adjusted EBITDA $ 80.5 $ 60.6 $ 388.1 $ 276.0 Unrealized (losses) gains on derivative financial instruments (11.7) 19.6 (35.2) 22.7 Restructuring charges (2.6) (2.7) (4.6) (4.8) Unallocated currency exchange gains (losses) on debt 0.6 0.1 (0.2) (2.3) Stock-based compensation expense (2.8) (6.4) (8.2) (9.2) Start-up costs (0.8) (6.3) (7.6) (55.0) (Unfavorable) Favorable metal price lag (0.5) (2.9) 9.2 36.3 Loss on extinguishment of debt — — — (48.9) Other (8.6) (6.9) (23.0) (3.5) EBITDA $ 54.1 $ 55.1 $ 318.5 $ 211.3 Interest expense, net (37.5) (38.7) (156.4) (144.7) Provision for income taxes (7.5) (3.7) (31.3) (18.5) Depreciation and amortization (37.0) (35.9) (142.6) (139.7) Net loss $ (27.9) $ (23.2) $ (11.8) $ (91.6) 15
4Q Adjusted EBITDA Reconciliation by Segment ($M) For the three months ended For the year ended December 31, December 31, 2019 2018 2019 2018 North America Segment income $ 51.0 $ 30.5 $ 259.8 $ 196.0 Unfavorable (favorable) metal price lag 1.4 1.2 (2.9) (33.9) 1 Segment Adjusted EBITDA $ 52.4 $ 31.7 $ 257.0 $ 162.1 Europe Segment income $ 22.9 $ 28.8 $ 130.1 $ 129.8 (Favorable) unfavorable metal price lag (0.6) 1.9 (5.0) (1.0) 1 Segment Adjusted EBITDA $ 22.2 $ 30.7 $ 125.1 $ 128.7 Asia Pacific Segment income $ 14.7 $ 7.6 $ 44.0 $ 23.6 Favorable metal price lag (0.3) (0.2) (1.3) (1.4) 1 Segment Adjusted EBITDA $ 14.4 $ 7.4 $ 42.7 $ 22.2 1Amounts may not foot as they represent the calculated totals based on actual amounts and not the rounded amounts presented in this table 16
4Q Adjusted EBITDA Per Ton Reconciliation ($M) For the three months ended For the year ended December 31, December 31, 2019 2018 2019 2018 Metric tons of finished product shipped: North America 113.7 119.0 517.4 517.5 Europe 65.2 76.9 310.8 330.4 Asia Pacific 9.2 7.6 35.1 29.4 Intra-entity shipments (1.5) (0.7) (5.3) (4.7) Total metric tons of finished product shipped 186.6 202.8 858.0 872.6 Segment Adjusted EBITDA:1 North America2 $ 52.4 $ 31.7 $ 257.0 $ 162.1 Europe 22.2 30.7 125.1 128.7 Asia Pacific 14.4 7.4 42.7 22.2 Corporate (8.5) (9.2) (36.7) (37.0) Total Adjusted EBITDA $ 80.5 $ 60.6 $ 388.1 $ 276.0 Segment Adjusted EBITDA per metric ton shipped: North America $ 460.7 $ 266.0 $ 496.6 $ 313.2 Europe $ 340.9 $ 394.0 $ 402.5 $ 388.4 Asia Pacific $ 1,570.7 $ 972.5 $ 1,216.9 $ 753.9 Aleris Corporation $ 431.1 $ 297.3 $ 452.4 $ 316.0 1See prior slides for a reconciliation to the applicable GAAP financial measures 2Segment Adjusted EBITDA excludes start-up operating expenses and losses incurred during the start-up period. For the three months ended December 31, 2019 and 2018, start-up costs were $0.8 million and $3.5 million, respectively. For the twelve months ended December 31, 2019 and 2018, start-up costs were $7.8 million and $45.3 million, respectively 17
Metal Hedging Practices Risk Mitigation Strategy Impact ▪ LME and regional premium volatility ▪ Pass through pricing and tolling ✓ Lowers margin volatility (inventory exposure) ▪ Minimize inventory levels ✓ Minimizes earnings impact ▪ Sell 100% of open inventory forward ✓ Risk limited to turn of inventory (“metal lag”) ▪ Forward price sales ▪ Match sales with physical purchases or LME forwards ✓ Locks in rolling margin ▪ Attempt to minimize LT fixed price sales ✓ Reduces multiyear dated derivatives Adjusted EBITDA vs. Metal Price Lag 1Q 2018 2Q 2018 3Q 2019 4Q 2018 1Q 2019 2Q 2019 3Q 2019 4Q 2019 Metal price lag impact on gross profit $10 $27 ($13) ($11) ($18) ($8) ($11) ($4) (+) Realized (losses) / gains on metal (1) (1) 17 8 25 8 13 3 derivatives Favorable / (unfavorable) metal price lag $9 $26 $4 ($3) $7 $0 $2 $0 net of realized derivative gains / losses Adj. EBITDA including metal lag $63 $111 $81 $58 $92 $108 $117 $80 (–) Income / (expense) from metal price lag 9 26 4 (3) 7 0 2 0 Adj. EBITDA as reported $54 $85 $77 $61 $85 $108 $115 $80 Risk management helps minimize commodity price exposure 18