Attached files

file filename
8-K - PARAGON OFFSHORE PLC 8-K 3-24-2016 - PARAGON OFFSHORE PLCform8k.htm
EX-99.1 - EXHIBIT 99.1 - PARAGON OFFSHORE PLCex99_1.htm
EX-99.3 - EXHIBIT 99.3 - PARAGON OFFSHORE PLCex99_3.htm

Exhibit 99.2
 
VALUATION ANALYSIS
 
A. Estimated Reorganization Valuation of the Debtors

The Debtors have been advised by Lazard Frères & Co. LLC (“Lazard”) with respect to the reorganization value of the Reorganized Debtors on a going concern basis.

Solely for purposes of the Plan, the estimated range of a reorganization value of the Reorganized Debtors was assumed to be approximately $1,650 million to $2,075 million (with a midpoint estimate of approximately $1,863 million) as of an assumed Effective Date of June 30, 2016.  The valuation analysis herein is based on information as of the date of the Disclosure Statement and is based on the Projections for the Projection Period.  For purposes of this valuation, it has been assumed that no material changes that would affect value occur between the date of the Disclosure Statement and the assumed Effective Date.  Lazard’s estimate of a range of reorganization values does not constitute an opinion as to fairness from a financial point of view of the consideration to be received under the Plan or of the terms and provisions of the Plan.

THE ASSUMED RANGE OF THE REORGANIZATION VALUE, AS OF AN ASSUMED EFFECTIVE DATE OF JUNE 30, 2016, REFLECTS WORK PERFORMED BY LAZARD ON THE BASIS OF INFORMATION IN RESPECT OF THE BUSINESS AND ASSETS OF THE DEBTORS AVAILABLE TO LAZARD AS OF MARCH 14, 2016.  IT SHOULD BE UNDERSTOOD THAT, ALTHOUGH SUBSEQUENT DEVELOPMENTS MAY AFFECT LAZARD’S CONCLUSIONS, LAZARD DOES NOT HAVE ANY OBLIGATION TO UPDATE, REVISE OR REAFFIRM ITS ESTIMATE.

Based upon the assumed combined range of the reorganization value of the Reorganized Debtors of between $1,650 million and $2,075 million and assumed net debt of $1,120 million (assuming a debt balance of $1,408 million and a pro forma cash balance of $288 million as of June 30, 2016), Lazard has employed an imputed estimate of the range of equity value for the Reorganized Debtors between approximately $530 million and $955 million, with a midpoint estimate of $742 million.

The assumed range of reorganization value was based on the Projections for the Projection Period, as set forth previously.

LAZARD DID NOT INDEPENDENTLY VERIFY THE PROJECTIONS IN CONNECTION WITH LAZARD’S ESTIMATES OF THE REORGANIZATION VALUE AND EQUITY VALUE, AND NO INDEPENDENT VALUATIONS OR APPRAISALS OF THE DEBTORS WERE SOUGHT OR OBTAINED IN CONNECTION HEREWITH.  ESTIMATES OF THE REORGANIZATION VALUE AND EQUITY VALUE DO NOT PURPORT TO BE APPRAISALS OR NECESSARILY REFLECT THE VALUES THAT MAY BE REALIZED IF ASSETS ARE SOLD AS A GOING CONCERN, IN LIQUIDATION, OR OTHERWISE.  IN THE CASE OF THE REORGANIZED DEBTORS, THE ESTIMATES OF THE REORGANIZATION VALUE PREPARED BY LAZARD REPRESENT THE HYPOTHETICAL REORGANIZATION VALUE OF THE REORGANIZED DEBTORS.  SUCH ESTIMATES WERE DEVELOPED SOLELY FOR PURPOSES OF THE FORMULATION OF THE PLAN AND THE ANALYSIS OF IMPLIED RELATIVE RECOVERIES TO CREDITORS THEREUNDER.  SUCH ESTIMATES REFLECT COMPUTATIONS OF THE RANGE OF THE ESTIMATED REORGANIZATION VALUE OF THE REORGANIZED DEBTORS THROUGH THE APPLICATION OF VARIOUS VALUATION TECHNIQUES AND DO NOT PURPORT TO REFLECT OR CONSTITUTE APPRAISALS, LIQUIDATION VALUES, OR ESTIMATES OF THE ACTUAL MARKET VALUE THAT MAY BE REALIZED THROUGH THE SALE OF ANY SECURITIES TO BE ISSUED PURSUANT TO THE PLAN, WHICH MAY BE SIGNIFICANTLY DIFFERENT THAN THE AMOUNTS SET FORTH HEREIN.
 

THE VALUE OF AN OPERATING BUSINESS IS SUBJECT TO NUMEROUS UNCERTAINTIES AND CONTINGENCIES WHICH ARE DIFFICULT TO PREDICT AND WILL FLUCTUATE WITH CHANGES IN FACTORS AFFECTING THE FINANCIAL CONDITION AND PROSPECTS OF SUCH A BUSINESS.  AS A RESULT, THE ESTIMATE OF THE RANGE OF THE REORGANIZATION ENTERPRISE VALUE OF THE REORGANIZED DEBTORS SET FORTH HEREIN IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF ACTUAL OUTCOMES, WHICH MAY BE SIGNIFICANTLY MORE OR LESS FAVORABLE THAN THOSE SET FORTH HEREIN.  BECAUSE SUCH ESTIMATES ARE INHERENTLY SUBJECT TO UNCERTAINTIES, NEITHER THE DEBTORS, LAZARD, NOR ANY OTHER PERSON ASSUMES RESPONSIBILITY FOR THEIR ACCURACY. IN ADDITION, THE VALUATION OF NEWLY ISSUED SECURITIES IS SUBJECT TO ADDITIONAL UNCERTAINTIES AND CONTINGENCIES, ALL OF WHICH ARE DIFFICULT TO PREDICT.  ACTUAL MARKET PRICES OF SUCH SECURITIES AT ISSUANCE WILL DEPEND UPON, AMONG OTHER THINGS, PREVAILING INTEREST RATES, CONDITIONS IN THE FINANCIAL MARKETS, THE ANTICIPATED INITIAL SECURITIES HOLDINGS OF PREPETITION CREDITORS, SOME OF WHICH MAY PREFER TO LIQUIDATE THEIR INVESTMENT RATHER THAN HOLD IT ON A LONG-TERM BASIS, AND OTHER FACTORS WHICH GENERALLY INFLUENCE THE PRICES OF SECURITIES.

Lazard assumed that the Projections were reasonably prepared in good faith and on a basis reflecting the Debtors’ most accurate currently available estimates and judgments as to the future operating and financial performance of the Reorganized Debtors. The estimated Enterprise Value and Equity Value ranges assume the Reorganized Debtors will achieve their Projections in all material respects, including revenue growth, EBITDA margins, and cash flows as projected. If the business performs at levels below or above those set forth in the Projections, such performance may have a materially negative or positive impact, respectively, on Enterprise Value and Equity Value. In estimating the Enterprise Value, Lazard: (a) reviewed certain historical financial information of the Debtors for recent years and interim periods, which is limited; (b) reviewed certain internal financial and operating data of the Debtors, including the Projections; (c) discussed the Debtors’ operations and future prospects with the senior management team and third-party advisors; (d) reviewed certain publicly available financial data for, and considered the market value of, public companies that Lazard deemed generally relevant in analyzing the value of the Reorganized Debtors; (e) considered certain economic and industry information relevant to the operating businesses; and (f) conducted such other studies, analyses, inquiries and investigations as it deemed appropriate. Lazard assumed and relied on the accuracy and completeness of all financial and other information furnished to it by the Debtors’ management as well as publicly available information.

The estimated Enterprise Value and Equity Value do not constitute a recommendation to any holder of Allowed Claims as to how such person should vote or otherwise act with respect to the Plan. Lazard has not been asked to and does not express any view as to what the trading value of the Reorganized Debtors’ securities would be on issuance at any time. The estimated Enterprise Value and Equity Value of the Reorganized Debtors set forth herein does not constitute an opinion as to fairness from a financial point of view to any person of the consideration to be received by such person under the Plan or of the terms and provisions of the Plan.

Based on the Debtors’ and their tax professionals’ tax analysis, the Reorganized Debtors do not expect to have significant tax attributes following the reorganization. Lazard did not estimate the value of any tax attributes nor did it estimate the impact of any cancellation of indebtedness income on the Reorganized Debtors’ projections. Any changes to the assumptions on the availability of tax attributes or the impact of cancellation of indebtedness income on the Reorganized Debtors’ projections could materially impact Lazard’s valuation analysis.
 
2

THE ESTIMATES OF THE REORGANIZATION VALUE AND EQUITY VALUE DETERMINED BY LAZARD REPRESENT ESTIMATED REORGANIZATION VALUES AND DO NOT REFLECT VALUES THAT COULD BE ATTAINABLE IN PUBLIC OR PRIVATE MARKETS. THE IMPUTED ESTIMATE OF THE RANGE OF THE REORGANIZATION EQUITY VALUE OF REORGANIZED DEBTORS ASCRIBED IN THE ANALYSIS DOES NOT PURPORT TO BE AN ESTIMATE OF THE POST-REORGANIZATION MARKET TRADING VALUE.  ANY SUCH TRADING VALUE MAY BE MATERIALLY DIFFERENT FROM THE IMPUTED ESTIMATE OF THE REORGANIZATION
EQUITY VALUE RANGE FOR THE REORGANIZED DEBTORS ASSOCIATED WITH LAZARD’S VALUATION ANALYSIS.

LAZARD IS ACTING AS INVESTMENT BANKER TO THE COMPANY, AND WILL NOT BE RESPONSIBLE FOR AND WILL NOT PROVIDE ANY TAX, ACCOUNTING, ACTUARIAL, LEGAL OR OTHER SPECIALIST ADVICE.
 
 
3