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8-K - FORM 8-K - POPULAR, INC.d255075d8k.htm

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Investor Presentation Fourth Quarter 2015 Exhibit 99.1


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Forward Looking Statements The information contained in this presentation contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These forward-looking statements are based on management’s current expectations and are subject to risks and uncertainties that may cause the Corporation's actual results to differ materially from any future results expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements.  Please refer to our Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2014, the Quarterly Reports on Form 10-Q for the quarters ended March 31, 2015, June 30, 2015, and September 30, 2015, and our other filings with the SEC for a discussion of those factors that could impact our future results.  Other than to the extent required by applicable law, the Corporation undertakes no obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statement to reflect events or circumstances after the date of such statements.


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1 See appendix for reconciliation to GAAP. 2015 Full Year Highlights NPLs decreased by $29 million YoY; ratio at 2.7% NPL inflows, excluding consumer loans, down by $114 million YoY NCOs ratio of 0.98% compared to 0.90% last year Credit (excluding covered loans) Reported adjusted net income of $375 million¹ Strong margins: Popular, Inc. 4.48%, BPPR 4.87% Earnings Reinstated common stock quarterly dividend Robust capital; Common Equity Tier 1 Capital ratio of 16.2% Strong DFAST results Year-end tangible book value per share of $42.18 compared to $35.89 for 2014 Capital Year Events Purchased over $2 billion of assets as part of Doral Bank transaction Purchased Doral insurance agency portfolio and $5 billion in Doral related MSRs Completed U.S. reorganization Continued strong U.S. loan growth Partial U.S. DTA allowance reversal


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Market Leadership in Puerto Rico Source: Puerto Rico Office of the Commissioner of Financial Institutions, COSSEC, and 10K Reports.*Information included pertains to P.R. Commercial Banks and Credit Unions. ¹ Mortgage loan production and credit card data for certain competitors is not publicly available; figures presented for competitors were estimated. Popular’s Puerto Rico Market Share by Category Popular’s Puerto Rico Market Share Trend 38% 37% 35% 42% 40% 39% 39% 41% 44% 24% 23% 22% 33% 34% 35% 36% 38% 41% 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Q3 2015 Total Deposits (net of brokered) Total Loans


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1 See appendix for reconciliation to GAAP. 2 Adjusted for Doral remeasurement, see appendix for GAAP results. Q4 2015 Highlights NPLs decreased by $33 million QoQ; ratio at 2.7% NPL inflows, excluding consumer loans, down by $87 million QoQ NCOs ratio of 1.48% compared to 0.83% last quarter Credit (excluding covered loans) Reported adjusted net income of $98 million¹ Strong margins: Popular, Inc. 4.39%2, BPPR 4.80%2 Earnings Robust capital; Common Equity Tier 1 Capital ratio of 16.2% Capital Quarter Events Completed fair value assessment of Doral transaction Incremental U.S. DTA allowance reversal


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P.R. Public Sector Exposure Our current direct exposure to the P.R. Government, instrumentalities, and municipalities is $669 million, of which approximately $578 million is outstanding. The outstanding balance remained essentially flat from Q3 2015, but down $233 million from Q4 2014. Central Government securities exposure consists of GDB notes, senior COFINA bonds and insured general obligation bonds of the Commonwealth. Loans to Public Corporations are obligations that have a pledge of a specific source of income or revenues identified for their repayment. Central Government & Public Corporations Municipalities Obligations of municipalities are backed by real and personal property taxes, municipal excise taxes, and a percentage of the sales and use tax. Indirect exposure includes loans or instruments that are payable by non-governmental entities and have a government guarantee to cover any shortfall in collateral in the event of borrower default. Majority are single-family mortgage related. Indirect Exposure 1 Numbers may not add to total due to rounding. 2 PREPA loans have a UPB of $75 million and are classified as held for sale. Outstanding P.R. government exposure ¹ ($ in millions) Loans Securities Total Central Government ¹ - $ 18 $ 18 $ Public Corporations PRASA 15 0 15 PREPA 2 42 0 42 Total Central Govt & Public Corp. 57 19 76 as % of Tier 1 Risk-Based Capital 1.9% Municipalities 445 57 502 Direct Government Exposure 502 $ 76 $ 578 $ Indirect Exposure 344 $ 50 $ 394 $


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Financial Summary (non-GAAP)¹ ¹ Unaudited. See Appendix for reconciliation to GAAP.


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FDIC Loss Share Asset


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Capital Ratios (%) Popular’s capital metrics continued to be robust with Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) of 16.2% Common stock quarterly dividend reinstated Regulatory capital ratios remained flat due to Doral fair value remeasurement which reduced CET1 by 41 basis points Note: Capital ratios for the current quarter are preliminary Popular, Inc.


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De-risked Loan Portfolios The Corporation has de-risked its loan portfolios by reducing its exposure to asset classes with historically high loss content The P.R. commercial portfolio reductions include: Commercial portfolio, including construction, has decreased from 55% of total loans held-in-portfolio to 43% Construction portfolio is down by 92% since Q4 2007 SME1 lending is down by 46% from Q4 2007 Collateralized exposure now represents a larger portion of consumer loan portfolio Unsecured loan credit quality has improved as overall FICO scores have increased Note: Numbers may not add to total due to rounding. (Excluding covered loans) ($ in millions) Highlights $ in millions Q4 2007 Q4 2015 Q4 2007 Q4 2015 Q4 2007 Q4 2015 Variance Commercial $7,774 $7,368 $4,515 $2,731 $12,288 $10,099 ($2,189) Consumer 3,552 3,346 1,698 491 5,249 3,838 (1,412) Mortgage 2,933 6,127 3,139 909 6,071 7,036 965 Construction 1,231 101 237 580 1,468 681 (787) Leases 814 628 - - 814 628 (187) Legacy - - 2,130 64 2,130 64 (2,066) Total $16,304 $17,571 $11,718 $4,776 $28,021 $22,346 ($5,675) P.R. U.S. Total Loan Composition (Held-in Portfolio) NCOs ($mm) (%) ($mm) (%) ($mm) (%) Distribution 2 CRE SME 1 $2,938 33% $2,012 27% ($926) -32% 25% C&I SME 1 2,287 25% 792 11% (1,495) -65% 29% C&I Corp 1,592 18% 1,866 25% 274 17% 5% Construction 1,231 14% 101 1% (1,130) -92% 35% CRE Corp 892 10% 2,567 34% 1,675 188% 5% Multifamily 64 1% 132 2% 68 106% 1% Total $9,004 $7,469 ($1,535) -17% 100% 1 Small and Medium Enterprise P.R. Commercial & Construction Distribution Q4 2007 Q4 2015 Variance 2 NCOs distribution represents the percentage allocation of net charge-offs from Q1 2008 through Q4 2015 per each loan category, excluding net charge-offs from previously covered loans up to Q2 2015.


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Non-Performing Assets Highlights NPAs, including covered loans, down by $36 million QoQ NPLs, excluding covered loans, down by $33 million QoQ P.R. NPLs at $575 million, or 3.3% of loans, down by $35 million Commercial NPLs down by $58 million mostly the result of: $31 million in charge-offs that were specifically reserved in prior periods $21 million related to bulk sale of loans with book value of $34 million Consumer NPLs up by $17 million mostly due to a single loan collateralized by P.R. securities U.S. NPLs at $27 million, or 0.6% of loans, up by $2 million Differences due to rounding. 1 Non-Performing Assets (including covered assets) ($ in millions) Non-Performing Loans (excluding covered loans) ($ in millions) 771 1,203 2,276 1,572 1,738 1,425 598 630 2.8% 4.7% 9.6% 7.6% 8.4% 6.8% 2.8% 3.3% 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Mortgage Commercial & Construction Other NPL/Loans (HIP) 665 576 635 602 3.2% 2.6% 2.8% 2.7% Q1 15 Q2 15 Q3 15 Q4 15


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NPL Inflows Total NPL Inflows ($ in millions) Highlights Total NPL inflows down $87 million QoQ P.R. commercial inflows, including construction, down by $74 million Prior quarter included the addition of three large credits, the largest of which was a $49 million relationship P.R. mortgage inflows decreased by $9 million U.S. NPL inflows decreased by $5 million QoQ, driven by lower construction inflows Excludes consumer loans Metrics exclude covered loans. Differences due to rounding. Mortgage NPL Inflows ($ in millions) Commercial, Construction, and Legacy NPL Inflows ($ in millions)


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NCO ($ in millions) and NCO-to-Loan Ratio Provision ($ in millions) and Provision-to-NCO Ratio Additional Credit Metrics Highlights NCO increase of $37 million QoQ mainly driven by: Higher commercial NCOs by $35 million; $31 million related to previously reserved large relationships NCO ratio of 1.48% vs. 0.83% in Q3 2015 Adjusted provision of $47 million, decreasing by $13 million QoQ Provision to NCO of 56% compared to 128% in Q3 2015; the provision for Q4 2015 was 90.3% of NCOs, excluding the $31 million of previously reserved loans. ALLL at $503 million, decreasing by $33 million QoQ ALLL to loans at 2.25% vs. 2.38% in Q3 2015 ALLL to NPL coverage ratio flat at 84% in Q4 2015 Metrics exclude covered loans. Differences due to rounding. ALLL ($ in millions), ALLL-to-NCO and ALLL-to-NPL Ratios


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Driving Shareholder Value Capital Robust capital with Common Equity Tier 1 Capital of 16.2% Strong DFAST Results Earnings Unique franchise in P.R. provides strong, stable revenue-generating capacity Continued strong loan growth in the U.S. Additional Value EVTC ownership and Banco BHD León stake Recent Accomplishments Common stock dividend reinstatement Doral transactions Completed U.S. reorganization


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Investor Presentation Fourth Quarter 2015 APPENDIX


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Who We Are – Popular, Inc. Franchise Information as of December 31, 2015 ¹ Doing business as Popular Community Bank Summary Corporate Structure Assets = $36 billion Assets = $28 billion Assets = $8 billion Puerto Rico Operations United States Operations Selected equity investments EVERTEC and Banco BHD León under Corporate segment and joint ventures under BPPR segment Transaction processing, business processes outsourcing 15.54% stake Adjusted EBITDA of $186.4 million for the year ended September 30, 2015 Dominican Republic bank 15.84% stake 2014 approximate net income of $123 million PRLP 2011 Holdings, LLC Construction and commercial loans vehicle 24.9% stake PR Asset Portfolio 2013-1 International, LLC Construction, commercial loans and OREOs vehicle 24.9% stake Corporate Structure – Popular, Inc. Industry Financial services Headquarters San Juan, Puerto Rico Assets $36 billion (among top 50 BHCs in the U.S.) Loans $23 billion Deposits $27 billion Banking branches 232 in Puerto Rico, New York, New Jersey, Florida and U.S. and British Virgin Islands NASDAQ ticker symbol BPOP Market Cap $2.9 billion Banco Popular de Puerto Rico Popular’s Insurance Subsidaries Popular North America, Inc. Popular Securities LLC Holding Companies (Including Equity Investments) Banco Popular North America 1 Popular Auto, LLC


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GAAP Reconciliation Full Year 2015 * Unaudited. ¹ Covered loans represent loans acquired in the Westernbank FDIC-assisted transaction that are covered under FDIC loss sharing agreements. ($ in thousands) Actual Results (U.S. GAAP) BPNA Reorganiza tion Doral Transaction OTTI Reversal of DTA U.S. Operations Loss on Bulk Sale of Covered OREOs Adjustme nt to FDIC Indemnific ation Assets MSRs Acquired Impairme nt of Loans Under Proposed Portfolio Sale Bulk Sale Adjusted Results (Non- GAAP) Net interest income $1,408,983 $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $1,408,983 Provision for loan losses – non-covered loans 217,458 - - - - - - - 15,190 5,852 196,416 Provision (reversal) for loan losses – covered loans ¹ 24,020 - - - - - - - - - 24,020 Net interest income after provision for loan losses 1,167,505 - - - - - - - (15,190) (5,852) 1,188,547 Mortgage banking activities 81,802 - 844 - - - - 4,378 - - 76,580 Other-than-temporary impairment losses on investment securities (14,445) - - (14,445) - - - - - - - FDIC loss-share income 20,062 - - - - 17,566 (10,887) - - - 13,383 Other non-interest income 432,122 - 2,072 - - - - - - - 430,050 Total non-interest income 519,541 - 2,916 (14,445) - 17,566 (10,887) 4,378 - - 520,013 Personnel costs 477,519 - 7,103 - - - - - - - 470,416 Net occupancy expenses 86,888 - 4,103 - - - - - - - 82,785 Equipment expenses 60,110 - 725 - - - - - - - 59,385 Professional fees 308,985 - 15,481 - - - - - - - 293,504 Communications 25,146 - 70 - - - - - - - 25,076 Business promotion 52,076 - 501 - - - - - - - 51,575 Other real estate owned (OREO) expenses 85,568 - - - - 21,957 - - - - 63,611 Amortization of intangibles 11,019 - - - - - - - - - 11,019 Restructuring costs 18,412 18,412 - - - - - - - - - Other operating expenses 162,498 - 509 - - - - - - - 161,989 Total operating expenses 1,288,221 18,412 28,492 - - 21,957 - - - - 1,219,360 Income from continuing operations before income tax 398,825 (18,412) (25,576) (14,445) - (4,391) (10,887) 4,378 (15,190) (5,852) 489,200 Income tax (benefit) expense (495,172) - (7,690) (2,486) (589,030) (1,712) (2,177) 1,707 (5,924) (2,282) 114,422 Income from continuing operations $ 893,997 $ (18,412) $ (17,886) $ (11,959) $ 589,030 $ (2,679) $ (8,710) $ 2,671 $ (9,266) $ (3,570) $ 374,778 Income from discontinued operations, net of tax $ 1,347 $ 1,347 $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - Net income $ 895,344 $ (17,065) $ (17,886) $ (11,959) $ 589,030 $ (2,679) $ (8,710) $ 2,671 $ (9,266) $ (3,570) $ 374,778 Basic EPS 8.66 $ Diluted EPS 8.65 $ Net interest margin 4.48% Tangible common book value per common share 42.18 $ Market value per common share 28.34 $ YTD 2015 *


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GAAP Reconciliation Q4 2015 * Unaudited. ¹ Covered loans represent loans acquired in the Westernbank FDIC-assisted transaction that are covered under FDIC loss sharing agreements. ($ in thousands) Actual Results (U.S. GAAP) BPNA Reorganization Doral Transaction Re measurement Bulk Sale Impairment of Loans Under Proposed Portfolio Sale Adjusted Results (Non- GAAP) Net interest income $ 352,500 $ - $ 1,952 $ - $ - $ - $ 350,548 Provision for loan losses – non-covered loans 57,711 - - 5,852 5,064 - 46,795 Provision (reversal) for loan losses – covered loans ¹ 820 - - - - - 820 Net interest income after provision for loan losses 293,969 - 1,952 (5,852) (5,064) - 302,933 Mortgage banking activities 23,430 - 833 - - - 22,597 FDIC loss-share income (4,359) - - - - - (4,359) Other non-interest income 113,367 - - - - - 113,367 Total non-interest income 132,438 - 833 - - - 131,605 Personnel costs 119,221 - - - - - 119,221 Net occupancy expenses 20,616 - - - - - 20,616 Equipment expenses 16,035 - - - - - 16,035 Professional fees 77,854 - - - - - 77,854 Communications 6,759 - - - - - 6,759 Business promotion 15,162 - - - - - 15,162 Other real estate owned (OREO) expenses 9,997 - - - - - 9,997 Amortization of intangibles 2,522 - (628) - - - 3,150 Restructuring costs 1,004 1,004 - - - - - Other operating expenses 36,638 - - - - - 36,638 Total operating expenses 305,808 1,004 (628) - - - 305,432 Income before income tax 120,599 (1,004) 3,413 (5,852) (5,064) - 129,106 Income tax expense (benefit) (16,827) - 731 (2,282) (1,975) (44,103) 30,802 Net income $ 137,426 $ (1,004) $ 2,682 $ (3,570) $ (3,089) $ 44,103 $ 98,304 Basic EPS 1.32 $ Diluted EPS 1.32 $ Net interest margin 4.42% Tangible common book value per common share 42.18 $ Market value per common share 28.34 $ Q4 2015 * Reversal of DTA U.S. Operations


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GAAP Reconciliation Q3 2015 * Unaudited. ¹ Covered loans represent loans acquired in the Westernbank FDIC-assisted transaction that are covered under FDIC loss sharing agreements. ($ in thousands) Actual Results (U.S. GAAP) BPNA Reorganization Doral Transaction MSRs Acquired Impairment of Loans Under Proposed Portfolio Sale Adjusted Results (Non-GAAP) Net interest income $ 350,735 $ - $ - $ - $ - $ 350,735 Provision for loan losses – non-covered loans 69,568 - - - 10,126 59,442 Provision for loan losses – covered loans ¹ (2,890) - - - - (2,890) Net interest income after provision for loan losses 284,057 - - - (10,126) 294,183 Mortgage banking activities 24,195 - 844 4,378 - 18,973 FDIC loss-share income 1,207 - - - - 1,207 Other non-interest income 105,707 - (10) - - 105,717 Total non-interest income 131,109 - 834 4,378 - 125,897 Personnel costs 120,863 - 806 - - 120,057 Net occupancy expenses 21,277 - 1,151 - - 20,126 Equipment expenses 14,739 - - - - 14,739 Professional fees 77,154 - 3,599 - - 73,555 Communications 6,058 - - - - 6,058 Business promotion 12,325 - 100 - - 12,225 Other real estate owned (OREO) expenses 7,686 - - - - 7,686 Amortization of intangibles 3,512 - - - - 3,512 Restructuring costs 481 481 - - - - Other operating expenses 42,802 - - - - 42,802 Total operating expenses 306,897 481 5,656 - - 300,760 Income from continuing operations before income tax 108,269 (481) (4,822) 4,378 (10,126) 119,320 Income tax expense 22,620 - (1,050) 1,707 (3,949) 25,912 Income from continuing operations $ 85,649 $ (481) $ (3,772) $ 2,671 $ (6,177) $ 93,408 Income from discontinued operations, net of tax $ (9) $ (9) $ - $ - $ - $ - Net income $ 85,640 $ (490) $ (3,772) $ 2,671 $ (6,177) $ 93,408 Basic EPS 0.82 $ Diluted EPS 0.82 $ Net interest margin 4.39% Tangible common book value per common share 42.71 $ Market value per common share 30.23 $ Q3 2015 *


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Business Segments (GAAP)* * Unaudited ¹ Non-fully taxable equivalent


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Consolidated Credit Summary (Excluding Covered Loans) 1 Excluding provision for loan losses and net write-downs related to the assets sales 2 Excluding the impact of the $5.1 million and $10.1 million impairment in Q4 2015 and Q3 2015, respectively, on the WB loans the Corporation has either sold or intends to sell and are subject to the ongoing arbitration with the FDIC. Note: Numbers may not add to total due to rounding.


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Popular, Inc. Credit Ratings Our senior unsecured ratings have remained stable Moody’s B2 Negative Fitch BB- Stable Outlook S&P B+ Negative January Fitch raised to BB- from B+; outlook stable October Moody’s revised outlook to negative February Moody's placed BPOP on review for downgrade May Moody’s downgraded BPOP to B2; outlook negative February S&P placed BPOP on credit watch negative due to the general economic environment in Puerto Rico 2013 2014 2015 May Moody’s, as part of a recalibration of their bank rating model, upgraded BPOP from B2 to B1 with a stable outlook July On 7/10 S&P affirmed BPOP’s rating while maintaining a negative outlook March Moody’s placed BPOP on review for possible upgrade due to a change in their bank rating methodology September Moody’s downgraded BPOP to B2; outlook negative


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Investor Presentation Fourth Quarter 2015