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8-K - FORM 8-K - EXELON CORP | d22418d8k.htm |
EX-99.1 - PRESS RELEASE AND EARNINGS RELEASE ATTACHMENTS - EXELON CORP | d22418dex991.htm |
Earnings Conference Call 3 rd Quarter 2015 October 30, 2015 Exhibit 99.2 |
2 Q3 2015 Earnings Release Slides Cautionary Statements Regarding Forward-Looking Information
This presentation contains certain forward-looking statements
within the meaning of the Private Securities
Litigation Reform Act of 1995, that are subject to risks and uncertainties. The factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from the
forward-looking statements made by Exelon Corporation,
Commonwealth Edison Company, PECO Energy Company,
Baltimore Gas and Electric Company and Exelon
Generation Company, LLC (Registrants) include those factors
discussed herein, as well as the items discussed
in (1) Exelons 2014 Annual Report on Form 10-K in (a) ITEM 1A. Risk Factors, (b) ITEM 7. Managements Discussion and Analysis of Financial
Condition and Results of Operations and (c) ITEM 8. Financial
Statements and Supplementary Data: Note 22; (2)
Exelons Third Quarter 2015 Quarterly Report on
Form 10-Q (to be filed on October 30, 2015) in (a) Part II,
Other Information, ITEM 1A. Risk Factors; (b) Part
1, Financial Information, ITEM 2. Managements Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations and (c) Part I, Financial
Information, ITEM 1. Financial Statements: Note 19; and (3)
other factors discussed in filings with the SEC by
the Registrants. Readers are cautioned not to place undue reliance on these forward-looking statements, which apply only as of the date of this
presentation. None of the Registrants undertakes any obligation
to publicly release any revision to its
forward-looking statements to reflect events or circumstances after the date of this presentation. |
Delivering Value through Strong Financial and Operational
Performance
Exelon
Utilities
Exelon
Generation
Exelon:
On track for best year of earnings since 2012
Q3 earnings of $0.83 per share, 6% higher than the same quarter
last year Raising full-year guidance to $2.40
to $2.60 per share despite delay in closing Pepco
3
Q3 2015
Earnings Release
Slides
Successful Generation to Load matching
strategy is meaningfully contributing to
earnings
#1 Provider of retail electricity, serving 34
TWhs
more than our nearest competitor
Serving 195 TWhs
of wholesale and retail
load
Top 10 marketer of natural gas
Delivering on average 4-6 Bcfs
of gas daily
World Class Operator
Q3 Nuclear Capacity Factor: 95.5%
Q3 Power dispatch match: 99.0%
Q3 Renewables energy capture: 94.8%
On track to invest $3.7 billion this year to
make the grid smarter, more reliable, and
more resilient
Exceeding $1B in net income this year
Constructive regulatory environments
PECO rate case settlement
ComEd formula rate
Recent BGE unanimous rate case
settlement
An industry leader of operational excellence
1
st
Quartile
SAIFI
performance
1
st
Quartile
CAIDI
performance
at
ComEd
and
PECO,
2
nd
Quartile
at
BGE
1
st
Quartile
Customer
Satisfaction
Top Decile
Gas Odor Response |
Aligning our Hedging Strategy with Our Fundamental Views Midwest (Nihub) power continues to discount the impact of coal
retirements and the potential for even modest load growth in
PJM and the surrounding regions over the next five
years
Prices could get an additional boost from $0.25-$0.75 higher
gas prices, primarily driven by increased export
and industrial demand
Power prices remain undervalued from 2017 onward, even absent a
recovery in gas; our portfolio management actions
reflect this view NiHub
Market versus Fundamental View
($/MWh)
We continue to align our hedging strategies with our fundamental views by leaving portfolio exposure to power price
upside
We continue to leave a significant amount of our portfolio open
to moves in the power market, when considering our behind
ratable and cross commodity
strategies
Generation ~46-49% open in 2017
~6-9% behind ratable -- even further behind in the Midwest 2017: Maintaining a More Open Position Across Entire Portfolio $31 $27 $29 $30 $26 $28 $32 2016 2017 NiHub Forecast 9/30 NiHub Market 9/30 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% 55% 60% Q4-14 Q1-15 Q2 - 15 Q3-15 2017-Actual 2017-Ratable 2017-Actual (excl. NG hedges) 4 Q3 2015 Earnings Release Slides |
5 Q3 2015 Earnings Release Slides Exelon Generation: Gross Margin Update 1) Gross margin categories rounded to nearest $50M 2) Total Gross Margin (Non-GAAP) is defined as operating revenues less purchased power and
fuel expense, excluding revenue related to decommissioning,
gross receipts tax, Exelon Nuclear Partners,
operating services agreement with Fort Calhoun and variable interest entities. Total Gross Margin is also net of direct cost of sales for certain Constellation
businesses.
See
Slide
29
for a Non-GAAP to GAAP reconciliation of Total Gross Margin. Gross Margin Category ($M) (1) 2015 2016 2017 2015 2016 2017 Open Gross Margin (3) (including South, West, Canada hedged gross margin) $5,150 $5,650 $5,800 $(100) $(50) $50 Mark-to-Market of Hedges (3,4) $2,200 $1,200 $750 $350 $300 $250 Power New Business / To Go $50 $500 $800 $(50) $50 $(100) Non-Power Margins Executed $400 $200 $100 $50 - - Non-Power New Business / To Go $50 $250 $350 $(50) - - Total Gross Margin (2) $7,850 $7,800 $7,800 $200 $300 $200 September 30, 2015 Change from June 30, 2015 3) Excludes EDFs equity ownership share of the CENG Joint Venture
4)
Mark-to-Market of Hedges assumes mid-point of hedge
percentages Recent Developments
Capacity Performance auction results reflected in 2016 and 2017 gross margin updates
Load serving business had a strong quarter driven by our generation to load matching
strategy
Behind ratable reflecting the fundamental upside we see in power prices in 2016 and
2017 |
6 Q3 2015 Earnings Release Slides Key Financial Messages Q3 2015 Adjusted Operating EPS (1,2) 2015 Full-Year Guidance (3.4) $0.45 - $0.55 $0.35 - $0.45 $0.25 - $0.35 2015 Initial Guidance $2.25 - $2.55 (1) $1.15 - $1.35 $0.45 - $0.55 $0.35 - $0.45 $0.20 - $0.30 ExGen ComEd PECO BGE ExGen ComEd PECO BGE 2015 Revised Guidance $1.35 - $1.45 HoldCo ~($0.10) $2.40 - $2.60 (1) $0.17 $0.10 PECO Q3 2015 $0.83 ($0.04) $0.55 HoldCo BGE ExGen ComEd $0.06 Raising full-year guidance range to $2.40 - $2.60/share (3,4) (1) Refer to the Earnings Release Attachments for additional details and to the Appendix for a reconciliation of adjusted
(non-GAAP) operating EPS to GAAP EPS (2) Amounts may not add due to
rounding (3) ComEd ROE based on 30 Year average Treasury yield of 2.82% as of 9/30/15 (4) 2015 earnings guidance based on expected average outstanding shares of ~893M. Refer to Appendix for a reconciliation
of adjusted non-GAAP operating EPS guidance to
GAAP EPS. |
7 Q3 2015 Earnings Release Slides 2015 Projected Sources and Uses of Cash (1) All amounts rounded to the nearest $25M. Figures may not add due to rounding. (2) Excludes counterparty collateral activity. (3) Adjusted Cash Flow from Operations (non-GAAP) primarily includes net cash flows from operating activities and net cash flows from investing activities excluding capital expenditures at ownership. (4) Other Financing primarily includes expected changes in short-term debt and tax-exempt bond issuance at ExGen. (5) Dividends are subject to declaration by the Board of Directors. (6) Includes cash flow activity from Holding Company, eliminations, and other corporate entities. Consistent and reliable free cash flows Enable growth & value creation Supported by a strong balance sheet Strong balance sheet enables flexibility to raise and deploy capital for growth Completed financing for PHI Acquisition including: $4.2B Long-term debt issuance $1.9B Equity issuance HoldCo: Retired $0.8B LTD note at maturity in June Operational excellence and financial discipline drives free cash flow reliability Generating ~$4.3B of free cash flow in 2015, including $0.9B at ExGen and $3.5B at the Utilities Creating value for customers, communities and shareholders Investing $4.8B, with $3.7B at the Utilities and $1.1B at ExGen ($ in millions) (1) BGE ComEd PECO Total Utilities ExGen Corp (6) Exelon 2015E Cash Balance Beginning Cash Balance (2) 3,575 Adjusted Cash Flow from Operations (3) 650 2,175 700 3,550 3,325 (50) 6,800 Base CapEx and Nuclear Fuel 0 0 0 0 (2,375) (50) (2,450) Free Cash Flow 650 2,175 700 3,550 925 (125) 4,350 Debt Issuances 0 850 350 1,200 750 4,200 6,150 Debt Retirements (75) (250) 0 (325) (550) (800) (1,675) Project Financing n/a n/a n/a n/a 0 n/a 0 Equity Issuance 0 0 0 0 0 1,875 1,875 Contribution from Parent 0 200 0 200 0 (200) 0 Other Financing (4) 225 (275) 25 (25) 1,400 (50) 1,300 Financing 150 525 375 1,050 1,600 5,000 7,650 Total Free Cash Flow and Financing Growth 800 2,700 1,075 4,600 2,525 4,875 12,000 Utility Investment (700) (2,425) (600) (3,700) 0 0 (3,700) ExGen Growth 0 0 0 0 (1,100) 0 (1,100) Dividend (5) (1,100) (1,100) Other CapEx and Dividend (700) (2,425) (600) (3,700) (1,100) (1,100) (5,925) Total Cash Flow, excl. Collateral 125 300 475 900 1,425 3,775 6,075 Ending Cash Balance (2) 9,650 |
8 Q3 2015 Earnings Release Slides Exelon Generation Disclosures September 30, 2015 |
Portfolio Management Strategy Protect Balance Sheet Ensure Earnings Stability Create Value Exercising Market Views Purely ratable Actual hedge % Market views on timing, product allocation, and regional spreads reflected in actual hedge % High End of Profit Low End of Profit % Hedged Open Generation with LT Contracts Portfolio Management & Optimization Portfolio Management Over Time Align Hedging & Financials Establishing Minimum Hedge Targets 9 Q3 2015 Earnings Release Slides Ensure stability in near-term cash flows and earnings Disciplined approach to hedging Tenor aligns with customer preferences and market liquidity Multiple channels to market that allow us to maximize margins Large open position in outer years to benefit from price upside Ability to exercise fundamental market views to create value within the ratable framework Modified timing of hedges versus purely ratable Cross-commodity hedging (heat rate positions, options, etc.) Delivery locations, regional and zonal spread relationships Aligns hedging program with financial policies and financial outlook Establish minimum hedge targets to meet financial objectives of the company (dividend, credit rating) Hedge enough commodity risk to meet future cash requirements under a stress scenario Bull / Bear Program Three-Year Ratable Hedging Strategic Policy Alignment Credit Rating Capital Structure Capital & Operating Expenditure Dividend |
10 Q3 2015 Earnings Release Slides Components of Gross Margin Categories Margins move from new business to MtM of hedges over the course of the year as sales are executed (5) Margins move from Non power new business to
Non power executed over the course of the
year Gross margin linked to power production and
sales Gross margin from
other business activities
Generation Gross
Margin at current
market prices,
including capacity
and ancillary
revenues, nuclear
fuel amortization
and fossils fuels
expense
Exploration and
Production
(4)
Power Purchase
Agreement (PPA)
Costs and
Revenues
Provided at a
consolidated level
for all regions
(includes hedged
gross margin for
South, West and
Canada
(1)
)
Mark-to-Market
(MtM) of power,
capacity and
ancillary hedges,
including cross
commodity, retail
and wholesale load
transactions
Provided directly at
a consolidated
level for five major
regions. Provided
indirectly for each
of the five major
regions via
Effective Realized
Energy Price
(EREP), reference
price, hedge %,
expected
generation
Retail, Wholesale
planned electric
sales
Portfolio
Management new
business
Mid marketing new
business
Retail, Wholesale
executed gas sales
Energy Efficiency
(4)
BGE Home
(4)
Distributed Solar
Retail, Wholesale
planned gas sales
Energy Efficiency
(4)
BGE Home
(4)
Distributed Solar
Portfolio
Management /
origination fuels
new business
Proprietary
trading
(3)
Open Gross
Margin
MtM of
Hedges
(2)
Power New
Business
Non-Power
Executed
Non-Power
New Business
(1) Hedged gross margins for South, West & Canada region
will be included with Open Gross Margin, and no expected generation, hedge %, EREP or reference prices provided for this region
(2) MtM of hedges provided directly for the five larger regions;
MtM of hedges is not provided directly at the regional level but can be easily estimated using EREP, reference price and hedged MWh
(3) Proprietary trading gross margins will generally remain
within Non Power New Business category and only move to Non Power Executed category upon management discretion
(4) Gross margin for these businesses are net of direct
cost of sales (5) Margins for South, West & Canada regions and optimization of fuel and PPA activities captured in Open Gross Margin |
11 Q3 2015 Earnings Release Slides ExGen Disclosures (1) Gross margin categories rounded to nearest $50M
(2)
Total Gross Margin (Non-GAAP) is defined as operating
revenues less purchased power and fuel expense,
excluding revenue related to decommissioning, gross receipts tax, Exelon Nuclear Partners, operating services agreement with Fort Calhoun and variable interest
entities. Total Gross Margin is also net of direct cost of sales
for certain Constellation businesses. See
Slide 29 for a Non-GAAP to GAAP reconciliation of Total Gross Margin. (3) Excludes EDFs equity ownership share of the CENG Joint Venture
(4)
Mark-to-Market of Hedges assumes mid-point of hedge
percentages (5)
Based on September 30, 2015 market conditions
Gross Margin Category ($M)
(1)
2015
2016
2017
Open Gross Margin
(including South, West & Canada hedged GM)
(3)
$5,150
$5,650
$5,800
Mark-to-Market of Hedges
(3,4)
$2,200
$1,200
$750
Power New Business / To Go
$50
$500
$800
Non-Power Margins Executed
$400
$200
$100
Non-Power New Business / To Go
$50
$250
$350
Total Gross Margin
(2)
$7,850
$7,800
$7,800
Reference Prices
(5)
2015
2016
2017
Henry Hub Natural Gas ($/MMbtu)
$2.75
$2.80
$2.99
Midwest: NiHub ATC prices ($/MWh)
$28.80
$29.58
$28.95
Mid-Atlantic: PJM-WATC prices ($/MWh)
$37.05
$36.82
$35.36
ERCOT-N ATC Spark Spread ($/MWh)
HSC Gas, 7.2HR, $2.50 VOM
$3.12
$4.62
$4.47
New York: NY Zone A ($/MWh)
$33.55
$33.52
$33.22
New England: Mass Hub ATC Spark Spread($/MWh)
ALQN Gas, 7.5HR, $0.50 VOM
$5.57
$9.33
$10.73 |
12 Q3 2015 Earnings Release Slides ExGen Disclosures (1) Expected generation is the volume of energy that best represents our commodity position in energy markets from owned
or contracted for capacity based upon a simulated dispatch model that makes assumptions regarding future market conditions, which are calibrated to market quotes for power, fuel, load
following products, and options. Expected generation assumes 14 refueling outages in 2015, 12 in 2016, and 15 in 2017 at Exelon-operated nuclear plants, and Salem. Expected
generation assumes capacity factors of 93.5%, 94.1% and 93.3% in 2015 , 2016 and 2017 respectively at Exelon-operated nuclear plants, at ownership. These estimates of expected generation in
2016 and 2017 do not represent guidance or a forecast of future results as Exelon has not completed its planning or optimization processes for those years. (2) Excludes EDFs equity
ownership share of CENG Joint Venture. (3) Percent of expected generation hedged is the amount of equivalent sales divided by expected generation. Includes all hedging products, such as
wholesale and retail sales of power, options and swaps. (4) Effective realized energy price is representative of an all-in hedged price, on a per MWh basis, at which expected generation has been
hedged. It is developed by considering the energy revenues and costs associated with our hedges and by considering the fossil fuel that has been purchased to lock in margin. It excludes
uranium costs and RPM capacity revenue, but includes the mark-to-market value of capacity contracted at prices other than RPM clearing prices including our load obligations. It can be
compared with the reference prices used to calculate open gross margin in order to determine the mark-to-market value of Exelon Generation's energy hedges. (5) Spark spreads shown for ERCOT and
New England. Generation and Hedges
2015
2016
2017
(1)
186,700
199,400
205,300
Midwest
96,600
97,300
95,700
Mid-Atlantic
(2)
61,700
63,100
61,200
ERCOT
11,600
17,200
26,400
New York
(2)
9,300
9,300
9,200
New England
7,500
12,500
12,800
% of Expected Generation Hedged
(3)
97%-100%
81%-84%
51%-54%
Midwest
97%-100%
79%-82%
45%-48%
Mid-Atlantic
(2)
95%-98%
84%-87%
57%-60%
ERCOT
99%-102%
86%-89%
65%-68%
New York
(2)
94%-97%
72%-75%
46%-49%
New England
115%-118%
81%-84%
37%-40%
(4)
Midwest
$36.00
$34.50
$34.50
Mid-Atlantic
(2)
$51.50
$47.00
$45.50
ERCOT
(5)
$23.50
$11.00
$7.50
New York
(2)
$47.50
$45.50
$42.00
New England
(5)
$42.00
$20.00
$18.00
Effective Realized Energy Price ($/MWh)
Exp. Gen (GWh) |
13 Q3 2015 Earnings Release Slides ExGen Hedged Gross Margin Sensitivities Gross Margin Sensitivities (With Existing Hedges) (1) 2015 2016 2017 Henry Hub Natural Gas ($/Mmbtu) + $1/Mmbtu - $110 $445 - $1/Mmbtu $20 $(115) $(430) NiHub ATC Energy Price + $5/MWh - $100 $275 - $5/MWh - $(95) $(275) PJM-W ATC Energy Price + $5/MWh - $45 $130 - $5/MWh - $(40) $(125) NYPP Zone A ATC Energy Price + $5/MWh - $10 $25 - $5/MWh - $(10) $(25) Nuclear Capacity Factor +/- 1% +/- $10 +/- $40 +/- $40 (1) Based on September 30, 2015 market conditions and hedged position; Gas price sensitivities are based on an assumed
gas-power relationship derived from an internal
model that is updated periodically; Power prices sensitivities
are derived by adjusting the power price assumption while keeping all other prices inputs constant; Due to correlation of the various assumptions, the hedged gross margin impact calculated by aggregating individual sensitivities
may not be equal to the hedged gross margin impact
calculated when correlations between the various assumptions are
also considered; Sensitivities based on commodity exposure which includes open generation and all committed transactions; Excludes EDFs equity share of CENG Joint Venture |
14 Q3 2015 Earnings Release Slides ExGen Hedged Gross Margin Upside/Risk 5,000 5,500 6,000 6,500 7,000 7,500 8,000 8,500 9,000 9,500 10,000 10,500 11,000 2015 2016 2017 $9,050 $6,900 $7,900 $7,800 $8,250 $7,350 (1) Represents an approximate range of expected gross margin, taking into account hedges in place, between the 5th and 95th
percent confidence levels assuming all unhedged
supply is sold into the spot market; Approximate gross margin
ranges are based upon an internal simulation model and are subject to change based upon market inputs, future transactions and potential modeling changes; These ranges of approximate gross margin in 2016 and 2017 do not represent
earnings guidance or a forecast of future results
as Exelon has not completed its planning or optimization
processes for those years; The price distributions that generate this range are calibrated to market quotes for power, fuel, load following products, and options as of September 30, 2015 (2) Gross Margin Upside/Risk based on commodity exposure which includes open generation and all committed transactions (3) Gross Margin (Non-GAAP) is defined as operating revenues less purchased power and fuel expense, excluding revenue
related to decommissioning, gross receipts tax, Exelon Nuclear Partners, operating services agreement with Fort Calhoun and variable interest entities. Total Gross Margin is
also net of direct cost of sales for certain Constellation businesses. See Slide 29 for a Non-GAAP to GAAP reconciliation of Total Gross Margin. Excludes EDFs equity ownership share of the CENG Joint Venture. |
15 Q3 2015 Earnings Release Slides Illustrative Example of Modeling Exelon
Generation 2016 Gross Margin (1) Mark-to-market rounded to the nearest $5 million (2) Total Gross Margin (Non-GAAP) is defined as operating revenues less purchased power and fuel expense, excluding
revenue related to decommissioning, gross receipts tax, Exelon Nuclear Partners operating services agreement with Fort Calhoun and variable interest entities. Total Gross Margin is also net of
direct cost of sales for certain Constellation businesses. See Slide 29 for a Non-GAAP to GAAP reconciliation of Total Gross Margin. |
16 Q3 2015 Earnings Release Slides Additional Disclosures |
17 Q3 2015 Earnings Release Slides Exelon Utilities Adjusted Operating EPS Contribution (1) Key Drivers 3Q15 vs. 3Q14: BGE (+0.01): Increased distribution revenue due to increased rates and
lower storm costs: $0.01
PECO
(+0.01):
Favorable weather: $0.02 ComEd (+0.02) (2) : Favorable weather: $0.01 Increased distribution earnings due to increased capital investments: $0.02 Decreased distribution earnings due to lower return on common equity: $(0.01) Exelon Utilities (-0.01): Share differential: $(0.01) 3Q 2015 $0.33
$0.17
$0.10
$0.06
3Q 2014
$0.29
$0.15
$0.09
$0.05
BGE
ComEd
PECO
Numbers may not add due to rounding. (1) Refer to the Earnings Release Attachments for additional details and to the Appendix for a reconciliation of adjusted
(non-GAAP) operating EPS to GAAP EPS. (2) Due to the distribution formula rate, changes in ComEds earnings are driven primarily by changes in 30-year U.S.
Treasury rates (inclusive of ROE), rate base and capital structure in addition to weather, load and changes in customer mix. |
18 Q3 2015 Earnings Release Slides ExGen Adjusted Operating EPS Contribution (1) $0.55 Q3 $0.50 2015 2014 Numbers may not add due to rounding (1) Refer to the Earnings Release Attachments for additional details and to the Appendix for a reconciliation of adjusted
(non-GAAP) operating EPS to GAAP EPS.
(excludes Salem)
Q3
2014 Actual
Q3
2015
Actual
Planned Refueling Outage
Days
18
27
Non-refueling Outage Days
20
11
Nuclear Capacity Factor
96.5%
95.5%
Key
Drivers
3Q15
vs.
3Q14:
ExGen
(+0.05)
Increased RNF primarily due to the benefit of lower cost to serve
load in the Mid-Atlantic, Midwest, and New England regions
and the benefit from Integrys
acquisition, partially offset by the
absence of various generating units sold in 2014 and 2015:
$0.10
Realized NDT fund losses in 2015 as compared to gains in 2014:
$(0.02)
Increased contracting costs primarily due to growth development
projects: $(0.02)
Other: $0.02 Share differential: $(0.03) |
19 Q3 2015 Earnings Release Slides ComEd April 2015 Distribution Formula Rate The 2015 distribution formula rate filing establishes the net revenue requirement used to set the rates that will take
effect in
January 2016 after the
Illinois Commerce Commission's (ICCs) review. There are two
components to the annual distribution formula rate filing:
Filing Year: Based on prior year costs (2014) and current year (2015) projected plant additions.
Annual Reconciliation: For the prior calendar year (2014), this amount reconciles the revenue requirement reflected in
rates during the prior year (2014) in effect to the
actual costs for that year. The annual reconciliation impacts cash flow in the following year (2016) but the earnings impact has been recorded in the prior year (2014) as a regulatory asset.
Given the retroactive ratemaking provision in the Energy
Infrastructure Modernization Act (EIMA) legislation, ComEd net income during the year will be based on actual costs with a regulatory asset/liability recorded to reflect any under/over recovery
reflected in rates. Revenue Requirement in
rate filings impacts cash flow. Revenue
Requirement Decrease Rate Base
(1)
(1)
Docket # 15-0287
Filing Year 2014 Calendar Year Actual Costs and 2015 Projected Net Plant Additions are used to
set the rates for calendar
year 2016.
Rates currently in effect (docket 14-0312) for calendar
year 2015 were based on 2013 actual costs and 2014 projected net plant additions
Reconciliation Year Reconciles Revenue Requirement reflected in rates during 2014 to 2014 Actual Costs Incurred. Revenue requirement
for 2014 is based on docket 13-0318 (2012 actual costs and
2013 projected net plant additions) approved in December 2013 and reflects the impacts of PA 98-0015 (SB9)
Common Equity Ratio ~ 46% for both the filing and
reconciliation year ROE
9.14% for the filing year
(2014 30-yr Treasury Yield of 3.34% + 580 basis point risk premium) and 9.09% for the reconciliation year
(2014 30-yr Treasury Yield of 3.34% +
580 basis point risk premium 5 basis points performance metrics penalty). For 2015 and 2016, the actual allowed ROE reflected in net income will ultimately be based on the average of the 30-year Treasury
Yield during the respective years plus 580 basis
point spread, absent any metric penalties Requested Rate of Return
~ 7% for both the filing and
reconciliation years $8,277 million Filing year (represents projected year-end rate base using 2014 actual plus 2015 projected capital additions). 2015
and 2016 earnings will reflect 2015
and 2016 year-end rate base respectively. $7,082 million - Reconciliation year (represents year-end rate base for 2014) $55M decrease
($145M decrease due to the 2014 reconciliation offset by a $90M increase related to the filing year). The 2014
reconciliation impact on net income was
recorded in 2014 as a regulatory asset. Timeline
04/15/15 Filing Date
240 Day Proceeding
ICC order expected to be issued by December 11, 2015
(1)
Amounts represent ComEds position
filed in surrebuttal testimony on August 20, 2015. Note: Disallowance of any items in the 2015 distribution formula rate filing could impact 2015 earnings in the form
of a regulatory asset adjustment. |
20 Q3 2015 Earnings Release Slides PECO Electric Distribution Rate Case & Proposed Settlement
Docket #
R-2015-2468981
Test Year
2016 Calendar Year
Requested
Revenue Requirement
$190M
Requested
Common Equity Ratio
(1)
53.36%
Requested Rate of Return
ROE: 10.95%; ROR:
8.19%
Proposed Rate Base
$4.1B
Proposed
Revenue Requirement Settlement
Increase
$127M
Authorized Returns
(2)
N/A
System Average Increase as % of overall bill
2.9%
Timeline
3/27/15 PECO filed electric distribution rate case with PaPUC 9/10/15 Settlement filed with all intervening parties
October 2015 ALJ Recommended Decision December 2015 PUC Decision Increased rates effective on January 1, 2016 The proposed Revenue Requirement increase of $127M represents 67% of the
Companys original proposal
(1)
Reflects PECOs expected capital structure as of
12/31/2016 (2)
Due to the black box nature of the settlement,
Authorized Return was not agreed upon by the parties in determining the ultimate revenue requirement increase. |
21 Q3 2015 Earnings Release Slides PECO Electric LTIIP - System 2020 PECO filed its Electric Long Term Infrastructure Improvement Plan (LTIIP) along
with its associated recovery mechanism the Distribution System
Improvement Charge (DSIC) on
March 27, 2015 (with Electric Distribution Rate Case)
o LTIIP includes $275 million in incremental capital spending from 2016-2020
focusing on the following areas:
Cable Replacement
Storm Hardening Programs
Substation replacement and upgrades
o DSIC mechanism will allow recovery of eligible LTIIP spend between rate
cases if the electric distribution ROE falls below the DSIC ROE
established by PaPUC. The current Electric DSIC
ROE is 10.0%. o
Approved on 10/22/15
PECO also proposed the concept of constructing one or more pilot microgrid
projects as part of a future LTIIP update ($50-$100M). The
objective is to evaluate and test emerging
microgrid technologies that could enhance
reliability and resiliency by replacing obsolete
infrastructure as an alternative to traditional
solutions. |
22 Q3 2015 Earnings Release Slides 2015 load growth is greater than 2014, attributed to improving economic conditions and moderate customer growth, partially offset by energy efficiency. Exelon Utilities Load 2015E 2014 2015 load growth is flat to 2014, driven by slowly improving economic conditions coupled with solid residential customer growth, offset by energy efficiency. (1.2%) (0.8%) 1.2% 0.1% (1.6%) 2015E 1.0% 0.5% 2014 (0.6%) Baltimore GMP 2.3% Baltimore Unemployment 5.5% Large C&I Small C&I Residential All Customers 2015 load growth is lower than 2014 (impacts of energy efficiency partially offset by slowly improving economy) with Residential and Large C&I trending downward. 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% (0.1%) Philadelphia GMP 1.8% Philadelphia Unemployment 5.2% (0.7%) 0.2% (0.8%) 0.3% (0.3%) (1.3%) 0.7% (0.1%) 2015E 2014 Chicago GMP 2.1% Chicago Unemployment 5.4% PECO BGE ComEd Notes: Data is weather normalized. Source of economic outlook data is IHS (September 2015). Assumes 2015 GDP
of 2.5% and U.S. unemployment of 5.1%. ComEd has the ROE collar as part of the distribution formula rate and BGE is decoupled which mitigates the load risk. QTD
and YTD actual data can be found in earnings release tables. BGE amounts have been adjusted for prior quarter true-ups.
|
23 Q3 2015 Earnings Release Slides Appendix Reconciliation of Non-GAAP Measures |
24 Q3 2015 Earnings Release Slides 3Q GAAP EPS Reconciliation Three Months Ended September 30, 2015 ExGen ComEd PECO BGE Other Exelon 2015 Adjusted (non-GAAP) Operating Earnings (Loss) Per Share
$0.55
$0.17
$0.10
$0.06
$(0.04)
$0.83
Mark-to-market impact of economic hedging
activities (0.09)
-
-
-
-
(0.09)
Unrealized losses related to NDT fund investments
(0.15)
-
-
-
-
(0.15)
Merger and integration costs
(0.01)
-
-
-
-
(0.02)
Asset retirement obligation
0.01
-
-
-
-
0.01
Tax settlements
0.06
-
-
-
-
0.06
CENG Non-Controlling Interest
0.05
-
-
-
-
0.05
3Q 2015 GAAP Earnings (Loss) Per Share
$0.41
$0.17
$0.10
$0.06
$(0.04)
$0.69
NOTE: All amounts shown are per Exelon share and represent
contributions to Exelon's EPS. Amounts may not add due to rounding. Three Months Ended September 30, 2014 ExGen ComEd PECO BGE Other Exelon 2014 Adjusted (non-GAAP) Operating Earnings (Loss) Per Share
$0.50
$0.15
$0.09
$0.05
$(0.01)
$0.78
Mark-to-market impact of economic hedging
activities 0.19
-
-
-
-
0.18
Unrealized losses related to NDT fund investments
(0.03)
-
-
-
-
(0.03)
Merger and integration costs
(0.05)
-
-
-
(0.01)
(0.06)
Mark-to-market impact of PHI merger related interest
rate swaps -
-
-
-
(0.01)
(0.01)
Amortization of commodity contract intangibles
0.01
-
-
-
-
0.01
Long-lived asset impairment
(0.03)
-
-
-
-
(0.03)
Plant retirement and divestitures
0.23
-
-
-
-
0.23
Asset retirement obligation
0.02
-
-
-
-
0.02
Tax settlements
0.08
-
-
-
-
0.08
CENG Non-Controlling Interest
(0.02)
-
-
-
-
(0.02)
3Q 2014 GAAP Earnings (Loss) Per Share
$0.90
$0.15
$0.09
$0.05
$(0.03)
$1.15 |
25 Q3 2015 Earnings Release Slides 3Q YTD GAAP EPS Reconciliation NOTE: All amounts shown are per Exelon share and represent contributions to Exelon's EPS. Amounts may not add
due to rounding. Nine Months Ended September 30,
2014 ExGen
ComEd
PECO
BGE
Other
Exelon
2014 Adjusted (non-GAAP) Operating Earnings (Loss) Per
Share $1.07
$0.39
$0.30
$0.17
$(0.02)
$1.91
Mark-to-market impact of economic hedging
activities (0.34)
-
-
-
-
(0.34)
Unrealized gains related to NDT fund investments
0.07
-
-
-
-
0.07
Merger and integration costs
(0.09)
-
-
-
(0.02)
(0.11)
Mark-to-market impact of PHI merger related interest
rate swaps -
-
-
-
(0.01)
(0.01)
Amortization of commodity contract intangibles
(0.05)
-
-
-
-
(0.06)
Long-lived asset impairment
(0.10)
-
-
-
(0.02)
(0.11)
Plant retirements and divestitures
0.23
-
-
-
-
0.23
Asset retirement obligation
0.02
-
-
-
-
0.02
Tax settlements
0.12
-
-
-
-
0.12
Gain on CENG integration
0.18
-
-
-
-
0.18
CENG Non-Controlling Interest
(0.04)
-
-
-
-
(0.04)
3Q 2014 GAAP Earnings (Loss) Per Share
$1.07
$0.39
$0.30
$0.17
$(0.07)
$1.86 |
26 Q3 2015 Earnings Release Slides 3Q YTD GAAP EPS Reconciliation (continued) Nine Months Ended September 30, 2015 ExGen ComEd PECO BGE Other Exelon 2015 Adjusted (non-GAAP) Operating Earnings (Loss) Per Share
$1.26
$0.39
$0.34
$0.23
$(0.09)
$2.13
Mark-to-market impact of economic hedging
activities 0.18
-
-
-
-
0.18
Unrealized losses related to NDT fund investments
(0.19)
-
-
-
-
(0.19)
Merger and integration costs
(0.02)
(0.01)
-
-
(0.03)
(0.06)
Mark-to-market impact of PHI merger related interest
rate swaps -
-
-
-
0.03
0.03
Amortization of commodity contract intangibles
0.01
-
-
-
-
0.01
Long-lived asset impairment
-
-
-
-
(0.02)
(0.02)
Asset retirement obligation
0.01
0.01
Tax settlements
0.06
0.06
Midwest Generation bankruptcy recoveries
0.01
-
-
-
-
0.01
CENG Non-Controlling Interest
0.06
-
-
-
-
0.06
3Q 2015 GAAP Earnings (Loss) Per Share
$1.38
$0.38
$0.34
$0.23
$(0.11)
$2.22
NOTE: All amounts shown are per Exelon share and represent
contributions to Exelon's EPS. Amounts may not add due to rounding. |
27 Q3 2015 Earnings Release Slides GAAP to Operating Adjustments NOTE: All amounts shown are per Exelon share and represent contributions to Exelon's EPS. Amounts may not add
due to rounding.
Exelons 2015 adjusted (non-GAAP) operating earnings
excludes the earnings effects of the following:
Mark-to-market adjustments from economic hedging
activities Unrealized gains and losses from NDT
fund investments to the extent not offset by contractual accounting as described in the notes to the consolidated financial statements
Certain costs incurred associated with the Integrys
and pending Pepco Holdings, Inc. acquisitions
Mark-to-market adjustments from forward-starting
interest rate swaps related to anticipated financing for the pending PHI acquisition Non-cash amortization of intangible assets, net, related to commodity contracts recorded at fair value at
the
date
of
acquisition
of
Integrys
in
2014
Non-cash benefit pursuant to the annual update of the
Generation nuclear decommissioning obligation
related to the non-regulatory units
Impairment of investment in long-term generating
leases Favorable settlement of certain income tax
positions on Constellations pre-acquisition tax returns Generations non-controlling interest related to CENG exclusion items
Other unusual items |
28 Q3 2015 Earnings Release Slides ExGen Total Gross Margin Reconciliation to GAAP Total Gross Margin Reconciliation (in $M) (4) 2015 2016 2017 Revenue Net of Purchased Power and Fuel Expense (1)(5) $8,350 $8,350 $8,300 Other Revenues (2) $(200) $(250) $(250) Direct cost of sales incurred to generate revenues for certain
Constellation businesses
(3)
$(300)
$(300)
$(250)
Total Gross Margin (Non-GAAP, as shown on slide
6) $7,850
$7,800
$7,800
(1)
Revenue net of purchased power and fuel expense (RNF), a
non-GAAP measure, is calculated as the GAAP measure of operating revenue less the GAAP measure of purchased power and fuel expense. ExGen does not forecast the GAAP components of RNF separately. RNF also includes the RNF of our
proportionate ownership share of CENG (2) Reflects revenues from operating services agreement with Fort Calhoun, variable interest entities, funds collected through
revenues for decommissioning the former PECO
nuclear plants through regulated rates and gross receipts tax
revenues (3) Reflects the cost of sales and depreciation expense of certain Constellation businesses of Generation (4) All amounts rounded to the nearest $50M (5) Excludes the impact of the operating exclusion for mark-to-market due to the volatility and unpredictability of
the future changes to power prices |