JPMORGAN CHASE & CO - FORM 8-K - EX-99.1

Attached files

file	filename
8-K - FORM 8-K - JPMORGAN CHASE & CO	d595480d8k.htm

September 9, 2013

Marianne Lake, Chief Financial Officer

Barclays Global Financial Services Conference

Exhibit 99.1

Agenda

Performance overview

II.

Capital & Leverage

III.

Balance sheet

IV.

Interest rate impacts

–

Mortgage production

–

Earnings-at-risk (“EaR”)

Credit update

VI.

Expense

VII.

Outlook

Performance summary

Note: Totals may not sum due to rounding

Note: LTM stands for last twelve months

See note 1 on slide 18

See note 2 on slide 18

See note 4 on slide 18

See note 3 on slide 18

1H13 includes the impact of final Basel 2.5 capital rules

Estimated impact of final Basel 2.5 Rules and Basel III Advanced NPR reflected in 2012, but not 2011. 1H13 includes the impact of Final Basel III capital rules issued July 2, 2013

Excludes Corp/PE loss for LTM as of 1H13 of $151mm from total revenue

CCB

48%

Lending and

deposit related

–

CCB 5%

Lending and

deposit related

–

other 6%

IB fees 11%

Principal

transactions

19%

Asset mgmt fees

–

AM 13%

Asset mgmt fees –

other 12%

Securities gains

Other 9%

Mortgage fees

13%

Credit card 10%

Including the impact of

final rules

$mm, excluding EPS

FY2011

FY2012

1H13

Revenue (FTE)

$99,767

$99,890

$51,806

Credit Costs

7,574

3,385

664

Expense

62,911

64,729

31,289

Net income applicable to common stock

$17,568

$19,877

$12,232

Reported EPS

$4.48

$5.20

$3.19

ROTCE

15%

17%

Return on Basel I RWA (excl. DVA)

1.5

1.7

1.8

Basel I Tier 1 common ratio

4,5

10.1

11.0

10.4

Basel III Tier 1 common ratio

4,6

7.9

8.7

9.3

Firmwide

revenue

–

LTM

1H13

1,7

NIR represents 56% of revenue –

LTM as of 1H13 NIR mix

Reported net income

$18,976

$21,284

$13,025

JPMorgan Chase overview – Performance summary

Growing our fortress balance sheet

outstanding

(EOP)

3.7B

3.9B

3.8B

3.4B

3.5B

Excludes legal reserves associated with mortgage-backed securities litigation

CAGR

Based on six months ended June 30, 2013, 2008 and 2003; excl. DVA, growth YoY would be 28%; see note 4 on slide 18

3.8B

($B)

2006

1H13

Tangible common equity

$65.4

$150.7

Basel I Tier 1 common

7.3%

10.4%

Loan loss reserve

$7.3

$19.4

Repurchase reserve

$0.0

$2.5

EOP Deposits

$638.8

$1,203.0

As of 1H13

Growth

YoY

10Y

BVPS

TBVPS

12%

EPS³

32%

22%

Key metrics since FY2006

JPMorgan Chase overview – Performance summary

Key business drivers by LOB

JPMorgan Chase overview

LTM average deposits represents the day-weighted average of the 3Q12, 4Q12, 1Q13 and 2Q13 average deposits

LTM average VaR represents the day-weighted average of the 3Q12, 4Q12, 1Q13 and 2Q13 average VaR

Represents client deposits and other third-party liabilities

Represents total CIB trading and Credit Portfolio VaR

Chase ranked #4 by J.D. Power for customer satisfaction in retail banking among large bank peers

Based on 2Q13 earnings

1H13 rank of JPM markets revenue of 10 leading competitors based on reported information, excl. DVA

Source: Strategic Insights

CCB

#1 in customer satisfaction among the

largest

banks

both

J.D.

Power

(Apr

13)

and the American Customer Satisfaction

Index (Dec 12)

Deposit growth 2x industry and fastest

amongst

large

cap

banks

#2 in mortgage originations in 2Q13, up

from #5 in 2006

Record Card sales volume in 2Q13,

outpacing the industry

Auto originations up 17% in 2Q13 YoY

CIB

#1 in Global IB fees

Markets

revenue

12 consecutive quarters of loan growth

17 consecutive quarters of positive long-

term client flows

#1 in active managed mutual funds flows

YTD in the US, EMEA and Asia

Key drivers/statistics ($B, except where noted)

Key highlights

CAGR

2011

2012

1H13

LTM

2011-LTM

CBB Deposits (Avg)

$360.8

$392.1

$427.0

$412.8

9.4%

Client inv. assets (EOP)

137.9

158.5

171.9

15.9%

Mortgage originations

145.6

180.8

101.7

200.2

23.7%

Card Sales volume

343.7

381.1

199.9

398.1

10.3%

Auto originations

21.0

23.4

13.3

25.1

12.6%

Loans (EOP)

$114.1

$115.3

$110.8

(1.9%)

Client deposits (Avg)

318.8

355.8

363.2

361.1

8.7%

AUC ($T, EOP)

16.9

18.8

18.9

8.0%

Average VaR ($mm)

76.0

96.0

51.0

82.7

N/M

Loans (EOP)

$112.0

$128.2

$130.9

11.0%

Deposits (Avg)

174.7

195.9

195.6

195.3

7.7%

AUM (EOP)

$1,336

$1,426

$1,470

6.6%

Long Term AUM Flows

51.0

58.0

55.0

84.0

39.5%

Loans (EOP)

57.6

80.2

86.0

30.7%

Deposits (Avg)

106.4

129.2

138.0

134.3

16.8%

CCB

CIB

Capital & Leverage

Buffer of 50+ bps above B3T1C and of 50 bps above SLR, reflects potential:

Capital volatility –

RWA and AOCI

Capital

Conservation

Leverage

Buffer

impacts

capital

distributions

–

when

fully

phased-in

Firm SLR consistent with Tier 1 capital ratio requirements

Bank SLR behind Firm SLR

More resources have been maintained at HoldCo to preserve firmwide flexibility

Majority of relevant off-balance sheet exposures held at the Bank

Targets to be achieved via a combination of actions

–

Retain Bank earnings and potentially downstream capital from HoldCo

–

Actions to reduce Bank leverage assets

Expect to resubmit CCAR in September

Corresponds to the Firm’s lead bank, JPMorgan Chase Bank, National Association

Increase in capital may impact return targets, but likely not proportionately, as we optimize

B3T1C ratio 2Q13 –

standardized approach: 9.7%

Leverage assets ~ 2x B3 RWA

Capital and Supplementary Leverage Ratio (“SLR”)

Estimated

2Q13

Comments

Basel III Tier 1 common ratio

9.3%

Target of 10-10.5%

Basel III Tier 1 ratio

10.0%

Target of 11.5%+

Firm SLR

4.7%

Target

5.5%+/-

Bank SLR

4.3%

Target

6%+

JPMorgan Chase fortress balance sheet

Note: Totals may not sum due to rounding

Note: For footnoted information, refer to slide 19

~$800B cash and high quality assets

60%

loan-to-deposit

ratio

HoldCo

pre-funding

: greater than 24 months

Less

than

$40B

wholesale

unsecured

debt

Wholesale

Consumer

$2,439B

Goodwill

Other

Loans

$706B

Eligible securities

Cash¹

$341B

Unencumbered

marketable

securities³

Capital markets

liabilities

Capital markets

secured financing

$564B

Other

liabilities

Equity $209B

B3 RWA

$1,587B

Other capital markets

secured

financing

Capital markets

trading assets

$640B

Deposits $1,203B

2Q13

Eligible cash

$279

Eligible securities

175

Total HQLA²

$454

$808B

$475B

Note: HoldCo debt included above excl. maturities within 1 year

2Q13

(B3T1C+HoldCo debt+pref)

$302

(B3T1C+HoldCo debt+pref)/B3 RWA

~19%

Estimated LCR ratio

118%

CP & other borrowed funds

JPMorgan

Chase

balance

sheet

–

June

30,

2013

($B)

Assets

Liabilities/Equity

LTD $266B

Long-term debt and equity $475B

$67B secured

$165B senior and structured notes

$34B subordinated debt & TruPS

$11B preferred stock

$151B TCE (excl. goodwill & other intang.)

The mortgage market volume reduction has been dramatic and rapid

Interest rate impacts

Primary and secondary mortgage rates (%)

MBA Weekly Application Index: Jan 2013-Aug 2013

Source: Freddie Mac, Bloomberg

Primary and secondary mortgage rates have increased >100 bps since the lows in early 2Q13, driving:

More than 60% reduction in market refinance applications relative to peak in May 2013

2H13 U.S. market originations expected to be down 30-40% versus 1H13

Medium-term profitability challenged by:

Lost revenue from volume

–

Purchase volume expected to increase but not to replace lost refinance volume

Compression of revenue margins

–

Due to competitive pressures, change in mix and higher secondary

rates

Negative operating leverage

–

Adjusting capacity of the business will take time

–

Addressing fixed costs may take longer

Commentary

Expect 3Q13 and 4Q13 pretax margin to be slightly negative

Maintain TTC Mortgage Production pretax income target guidance of $1.5B+/-

110 bps

102 bps

(64)%

Source: Mortgage Bankers Association

Note: MBA Weekly Application Index data is not seasonally adjusted

+111 bps

July-August

mean: 95 bps

Focus on growing purchase market share

Interest rate impacts

Chase purchase market share

Commentary

Increase in rates has reduced the remaining refinance opportunity by >50%

HPI improvement likely to increase eligible population over time

We will continue to invest to capture purchase share

Technology and process improvements

Customer service

Distribution

–

Retail

mortgage

bankers

and

Correspondent

Marketing and brand

Source: Inside Mortgage Finance

Households eligible for refinance with offer rate 50 bps lower than the current mortgage rate and credit eligible defined as meets FICO and LTV requirements with no bankruptcy or

foreclosure history

Chase purchase market share

Increasing mortgage rates

Commentary

Refinance opportunity at July 2013 (households)

Firm well-positioned for rising rates

Interest rate impacts

As of 6/30/2013. Reflects risk exposure to pretax NII of the Firm's non-market-based business activities (see 2Q13 Form 10-Q disclosure for further discussion on interest rate exposure)

June

30,

2013

The Firm is positioned to benefit from rising rates

EaR of $2.1B and $3.7B for a 100 bps and a 200 bps

parallel move, respectively

AOCI/NII relationship for 200 bps parallel rise in market

rates

Would reduce AOCI by incremental ~$15B pre-tax

Would generate cumulative incremental NII of $17B+/-

over 3 years

100

Potential increases in NII relative to the forward curve

10Yr Swap (bps)

No curve change

100

200

$2.1B

$2.0B

$0.9B

$1.7B

EaR

–

Simulated

net

interest

income

increases

Commentary

$3.7B

Simulated impact of a 200 bps parallel rate shock over a three year period

Interest rate impacts

Note: TTC stands for through-the-cycle

Note: Assumes tax rate of 38%

Note: Balance sheet and RWA assumed constant at 2Q13 over the three year simulation period

2Q13 annualized not incremental

Incremental to core earnings

As of June 30, 2013

200 bps instantaneous “parallel”

shock; immediate AOCI impact

Mortgage production market size/pretax margin: <$1T in year 1; exit year 3 at TTC targets ($1.5T and 65 bps)

The

combination

normal

rate

environment

with

broader

economic

recovery

would

also

increase

core

earnings

Capital impact manageable; additional earnings power significant

$B, except where noted

Simulation assumptions

Impact of simulation

2Q13 annualized

Year 1

Cumulative

over 3 years

Change in NII

$43.6

$3.7

$17.0+/-

Mortgage Production pretax earnings

$2.3

($0.5)+/-

$1.0+/-

Change in Mortgage Production pretax earnings

($2.8)+/-

($6.0)+/-

Pretax earnings

$45.9

$0.9

$11.0

AOCI impact (pretax)

~($15)

<($15)

Est. cumulative impact on B3T1C (%)

9.3%

~(0.6)%

~0.0%

Credit quality trends

Credit update

The

Firm’s

net

charge-offs

and

nonperforming

loans

are

down

83%

and

45%

respectively,

from

peak

levels

Adjusted NPLs

$15B

$8B

NCO rate MB

2.70%

1.81%

1.79%

NCO rate Card

9.73%

5.44%

3.95%

$7B

0.85%

3.43%

0.10%

(prime)

–

0.50%

(HE)

4.00%

$19.4B LLR, incl. PCI

$10B

NCOs by line of business

Strong coverage and reserve position

Strong

reserve

coverage

ratio

Card, Merchant Services & Auto

1H13 adjusted NCOs exclude CIB net recoveries

2012 NPLs are impacted by regulatory guidance issued in the first quarter of 2012 as a result of which the Firm began reporting performing junior liens that are subordinate to nonaccrual senior liens as nonaccrual loans and by regulatory

guidance issued in the third quarter of 2012 requiring loans not reaffirmed by the borrower and discharged under Chapter 7 bankruptcy to be reported as nonaccrual loans. For reference, reported NPLs were $14,841mm, $9,993mm,

$10,720mm and $9,734mm for 2010, 2011, 2012 and 1H13, respectively

Represents Real Estate Portfolios (“REP”) only

Represents Credit Card only; excludes loans held-for-sale

Based on peak levels of NCOs and NPLs in 3Q09

$13.7B LLR, excl. PCI

$21.9B

$16.2B

$27.3B

CCB

CIB

LLR, ex-PCI

$24B

$12B

$9B

$6B

$7-8B

Card

2010

2011

2012

Adjusted 1H13

Annualized

TTC guidance

(Investor Day 2013)

Card Services

Credit update

Comments and outlook

Given

improved

delinquencies,

lower

volume

new

TDR

together

with

portfolio

seasoning

–

expect

$500mm+/-

reserve

release in 2H13

delinquencies

continue

improve

2014

–

potential

incremental

reserve

releases

Credit card: 0-30 $ roll rate

Source: Internal Chase Data

Note: TDR stands for troubled debt restructuring

Note: Totals may not sum due to rounding

Credit card delinquencies prior to January 1, 2010 to principally reflect managed portfolio performance; the dotted part of the line has been adjusted to eliminate impact of legacy

payment strategy

TDR portfolio and NCO rates

22.0%

12.1%

Total NCO rate

Potential incremental

reserve releases in

2014

NCO rate

0-24

25-36

37+

Mar-10

22.9%

13.4%

8.7%

Jun-13

16.4%

8.5%

6.0%

$3.9B

Mar-10

Jun-13

90+ Day Delinquencies, excl. PCI (‘000 units)

Comments and outlook

Delinquencies down 24% since 1Q11

Severities down from ~40% in 3Q11 to ~25% in 2Q13 due to continuing HPI improvements

Total

quarterly

net

charge-offs

expected

$200mm+/-

3Q13

If current trends continue, net charge-offs will be at or around these levels in 4Q13

NCI

reserve

releases

expected

$500mm+/-

3Q13

Mortgage

Banking

–

Non

credit-impaired

loans

Credit update

Source: Internal Chase Data

Notes: Reflects Chase owned inventory

Source: Internal Chase Data

Loss severities at initial write-down, excl. PCI

Mortgage Banking –

Purchased credit-impaired loans

Credit update

Initial fair value mark reflected $30.5B of estimated

lifetime principal credit losses

Incremental

impairments

$5.7B

recorded

the

allowance for loan losses since acquisition

Recent HPI improvements have resulted in a

probable and significant decrease in lifetime loss

estimates

Expect

reserve

reduction

$750mm+/-

3Q13

taken through provision expense

We could see additional reserve reductions if HPI

and delinquencies continue to improve

Source: Moody’s July 2013 national HPI assumptions

Impairments taken 2009-2011; last impairment 4Q11

As of year-end

2013

2014

2015

2016

4Q11

(31)%

(26)%

(22)%

(19)%

Current

(23)

(18)

(15)

(13)

Improvement

HPI assumptions –

change from peak

Commentary

Changes in HPI since last PCI impairment

2013 Firmwide expense

Primarily

non-Corporate

litigation

Excludes Corporate litigation and foreclosure-related matters (“FRM”); includes elevated mortgage expense

$64.7

#1 priority –

led by

Operating Committee

Unprecedented efforts

with 23 workstreams,

including:

CCAR

Consent orders

Significant resources

committed to

addressing control and

regulatory agendas

~3,000 people added

across control functions

Control agenda

Firmwide adjusted expense ($B)

Mortgage Banking

Quarterly net charge-offs

–

3Q13: expect $200mm+/-

–

4Q13: at or around these levels, if current trends continue

3Q13 reserve releases

–

NCI: expect $500mm+/-

–

PCI: expect $750mm+/-

Mortgage Production pretax income

–

Expect 3Q13 and 4Q13 pretax margin to be slightly negative

–

Maintain TTC target pretax guidance of $1.5B+/-

Card, Merchant Services & Auto

Portfolio

improvements

–

delinquencies

and

restructured

loans

–

Expect $500mm+/-

reserve release in 2H13

Outlook

3Q13 Markets revenue, excluding DVA, expected to be flat to

down 5% YoY

Expect NII slightly up in 3Q13 vs. 2Q13

Expect

FY2013

firmwide

adjusted

expense

$59.5-$60B

Expect to increase litigation reserves in 3Q13

As defined at Investor Day, firmwide adjusted expense excludes Corporate litigation and FRM

Basel

III

Tier

common

ratio

target

10-10.5%

over

time

Firm SLR target of 5.5%+/-

over time

Bank SLR target of 6%+ over time

Consumer & Community Banking

Corporate & Investment Bank

Firmwide guidance

Capital and leverage

Enhancements to Corporate Governance Principles

Directors

Corporate governance announcements

Expect

join

the

JPM

Board

January

2014

after

retiring

from

General

Electric

Company at the end of 2013

Experience

General Electric Company (1979-present), including 26 years at GE Capital

Currently: Vice Chairman, General Electric Company

Previously:

Chairman

and

CEO

Capital,

President

and

COO

Capital, CEO of GE Commercial Finance

Michael A. Neal

Other Board best practices include:

Lead Independent Director position not rotating on an annual basis

Directors, including the Lead Independent Director, will be available for

consultation with major shareholders and other constituencies where

appropriate

Executive sessions (without company management) will take place at every

regularly scheduled Board meeting

Expect to be elected to the JPM Board on September 16, 2013

Experience

Director, Freddie Mac (2008-2013)

Deputy Head of Risk Management, JPMorgan Chase & Co. (2004-2005)

Chief Risk Management Officer, Bank One Corporation (2001-2004)

–

Chair of the Business and Risk Committee

Former Board Member, Risk Management Association

Former Chair, Loan Syndications and Trading Association

Linda B. Bammann

Establishment of a Lead Independent Director role

Lee R. Raymond, formerly Presiding Director, continues as Lead

Independent Director

Responsibilities and authorities of the Lead Director role include:

Authority to call for a Board meeting at any time

Preside over meetings when the CEO is conflicted or absent

Approve the Board agenda for a meeting and may add agenda items

Guide annual performance evaluation of Chairman and CEO

Guide full Board consideration of CEO succession issues

Facilitate communication between the company’s management and

independent directors

Meet one-on-one with the CEO after every regularly scheduled Board

meeting

Guide full Board consideration of compensation of CEO

Guide annual self-assessment of full Board

Lead Director

Other Board Best Practices

Notes on non-GAAP financial measures

Notes

In addition to analyzing the Firm’s results on a reported basis, management reviews the Firm’s results and the results of the lines of business on a “managed” basis,

which is a non-GAAP financial measure. The Firm’s definition of managed basis starts with the reported U.S. GAAP results and includes certain reclassifications to

present total net revenue for the Firm (and each of the business segments) on a fully taxable-equivalent (“FTE”) basis. Accordingly, revenue from investments that

receive tax credits and tax-exempt securities is presented in the managed results on a basis comparable to taxable securities and investments. This non-GAAP financial

measure allows management to assess the comparability of revenue arising from both taxable and tax-exempt sources. The corresponding income tax impact related to

tax-exempt items is recorded within income tax expense. These adjustments have no impact on net income as reported by the Firm as a whole or by the lines of

business.

Tangible common equity (“TCE”) represents common stockholders’ equity (i.e., total stockholders’ equity less preferred stock) less goodwill and identifiable intangible

assets (other than MSRs), net of related deferred tax liabilities. Return on tangible common equity measures the Firm’s earnings as a percentage of average TCE.

Tangible book value per share represents the TCE divided by the period-end number of common shares. In management’s view, these measures are meaningful to the

Firm, as well as to analysts and investors, in assessing the Firm’s use of equity and in facilitating comparisons with peers.

The Tier 1 common ratio under both Basel I and Basel III are both non-GAAP financial measures. These measures are used by management, bank regulators, investors

and analysts to assess the Firm's capital position and to compare the Firm's capital to that of other financial services companies. The Basel I Tier 1 common ratio is Tier

1 common capital divided by Basel I risk-weighted assets. Tier 1 common capital is defined as Tier 1 capital less elements of Tier 1 capital not in the form of common

equity, such as perpetual preferred stock, noncontrolling interests in subsidiaries, and trust preferred securities. In July 2013, the U.S. Federal Reserve approved the

final rule for implementing Basel III in the United States. For further information on Basel I and Basel III, see Regulatory capital on pages 117-119, 60-63, and 42-45 of

JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2012, and Quarterly Reports on Form 10-Q for the quarters ended June, 30,

2013 and March 31, 2013, respectively.

The impact of DVA is excluded from the calculation of the return on Basel I risk-weighted assets and EPS growth, which are non-GAAP financial measures used by

management to assess the underlying performance of the business and for comparability with peers.

Notes on slide 6 –

JPMorgan Chase fortress balance sheet

In addition to eligible cash included in High Quality Liquid Assets (“HQLA”), cash balance includes non-

operational deposits with third party banks and float (considered inflows under Basel III LCR), as well as

operational cash primarily used for settlement purposes

HQLA is the estimated amount of assets the Firm believes will qualify for inclusion in the Liquidity Coverage Ratio

(“LCR”) based on the Firm’s current understanding of the proposed rules

The Firm has approximately $278 billion of unencumbered marketable securities, such as equity and fixed income

securities available to raise liquidity if required

Net of allowance for loan losses

Includes resales, securities borrowed and cash and due from banks from CIB not included in the $808B total cash

and unencumbered securities

Includes CIB trading assets and derivatives receivables

Includes other assets, other intangible assets, MSR, premises and equipment, accrued interest and accounts

receivable and non-CIB trading assets

Includes

trading

liabilities,

Fed

funds

purchased

and

securities

loaned

sold

under

repurchase

agreements,

VIEs, other borrowed funds and other liabilities all in CIB and derivatives payable

Includes accounts payable and other liabilities, Fed funds purchased and securities loaned or sold under

repurchase agreements and VIEs (excluding CIB)

10.

Loan-to-deposit ratio is based on a gross loans basis

11.

Number of months of pre-funding: the Firm targets pre-funding of the parent holding company to ensure that both

contractual and non-contractual obligations can be met for at least 18 months assuming no access to wholesale

funding markets

12.

Includes wholesale CP funding and a portion of other borrowed funds, which are unsecured

Forward-looking statements

This presentation contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities

Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These statements are based on the current beliefs and expectations

of JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s management and are subject to significant risks and uncertainties.

Actual results may differ from those set forth in the forward-looking statements. Factors that could

cause JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s actual results to differ materially from those described in the

forward-looking statements can be found in JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s Annual Report on Form 10-K

for the year ended December 31, 2012, and Quarterly Reports on Form 10-Q for the quarters ended

March 31, 2013 and June 30, 2013, which have been filed with the Securities and Exchange

Commission and are available on JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s website

(http://investor.shareholder.com/jpmorganchase), and on the Securities and Exchange

Commission’s website (www.sec.gov). JPMorgan Chase & Co. does not undertake to update the

forward-looking statements to reflect the impact of circumstances or events that may arise after the

date of the forward-looking statements.

Attached files

Stock widget

Investing forum