MOSAIC CO - FORM 8-K - EX-99.2 - SLIDES SHOWN DURING THE WEBCAST OF THE CONFERENCE CALL OF THE MOSAIC COMPANY

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EX-99.1 - TRANSCRIPT OF CONFERENCE CALL OF THE MOSAIC COMPANY - MOSAIC CO	d329439dex991.htm

The Mosaic Company

Earnings

Conference

Call

–

Quarter

Fiscal

2012

Thursday,

March

29,

2012

Exhibit 99.2

Jim Prokopanko, President and Chief Executive Officer

Larry

Stranghoener,

Executive

Vice

President

and

Chief

Financial

Officer

Laura Gagnon, Vice President Investor Relations

This presentation contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Such

statements include, but are not limited to, statements about future financial and operating results. Such statements are based upon the

current beliefs and expectations of The Mosaic Company’s management and are subject to significant risks and uncertainties. These

risks and uncertainties include but are not limited to the predictability and volatility of, and customer expectations about, agriculture,

fertilizer,

raw

material,

energy

and

transportation

markets

that

are

subject

competitive

and

other

pressures

and

economic

and

credit

market conditions; the level of inventories in the distribution channels for crop nutrients; changes in foreign currency and exchange

rates; international trade risks; changes in government policy; changes in environmental and other governmental regulation, including

greenhouse gas regulation, implementation of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s numeric water quality standards for the

discharge of nutrients into Florida lakes and streams or possible efforts to reduce the flow of excess nutrients into the Gulf of Mexico;

further developments in judicial or administrative proceedings; difficulties or delays in receiving, increased costs of or challenges to

necessary governmental permits or approvals; the effectiveness of the Company’s processes for managing its strategic priorities;

adverse weather conditions affecting operations in Central Florida or the Gulf Coast of the United States, including potential hurricanes

or excess rainfall; actual costs of various items differing from

management’s current estimates, including, among others, asset

retirement, environmental remediation, reclamation or other environmental regulation, or Canadian resources taxes and royalties;

accidents and other disruptions involving Mosaic’s operations, including brine inflows at its Esterhazy, Saskatchewan potash mine and

other potential mine fires, floods, explosions, seismic events or releases of hazardous or volatile chemicals, as well as other risks and

uncertainties reported from time to time in The Mosaic Company’s reports filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Actual

results may differ from those set forth in the forward-looking statements.

Safe Harbor Statement

Ongoing business strength

despite near-term market challenges

Strong execution

Market impacts

South Fort Meade litigation

resolved [pending court approval]

Lower potash volumes

Potash expansion on track

Higher raw materials costs

MicroEssentials

expansion on

track for 4Q12 completion

Operational excellence delivering

benefits

Increased dividend 150%*

*The declaration and payment of future dividends is subject to approval by Mosaic’s Board of Directors.

These can be no assurance that the Company and Board of Directors will declare future dividends.

Resolving Near-term

Market Challenges

•

Indian subsidy known

•

China-Canpotex contract signed

•

Phosphate raw material spot prices down

Long-term market conditions remain

attractive

Expecting a strong spring

season in North America

•

Farm economics remain compelling

•

Farmers have incentive to plant more

acres and maximize yields

•

Expect early start due to warm weather

Mosaic is well positioned for the spring

season

Fourth quarter outlook

The issue is timing, not tonnes

Price

risk

aversion

remains

high,

impacting

timing

fertilizer

purchases

and willingness to hold inventories

Potash Fourth Quarter 2012 Guidance

Sales volume 1.7

–

2.2 million tonnes

MOP

selling

price

$420

–

$450

per

tonne

from

1.1

million

tonnes

Reflecting mix change from 3Q

Phosphates Fourth Quarter 2012 Guidance

Sales

volume

2.3

–

2.7

million

tonnes

DAP

selling

price

$460

$490

per

tonne

~Flat with 2.6 million tonnes in 3Q

Down from $536

per tonne in 3Q

Financial Results Review

Net Sales reflect delayed purchasing

Q3 FY12

Q3 FY12 vs.

Q3 FY11

Revenue

$2.2 billion

(1)%

Phosphates

$1.7 billion

13%

Potash

$553 million

(27) %

•

Phosphates sales volume:

–

2.6 million tonnes, up 9%

•

DAP price (FOB Central FL):

–

$536 / tonne, down 1%

•

Potash sales volume:

–

1.1 million tonnes, down 41%

•

MOP price (FOB Mine):

–

$453 / tonne, up 27%

Earnings reflect higher Phosphates raw

material costs and lower Potash volumes

Q3 FY12

Gross margin

Q3 FY12 vs.

Q3 FY11

Consolidated

24%

$522 million

(39)%

Phosphates

16%

$259 million

(43)%

Potash

49%

$270 million

(34)%

Net Earnings and EPS

Reported Earnings

($ in million except per share)

Q3 FY12

Earnings Before Taxes

$355

Net Earnings

$273

EPS

$0.64

Impact of Notable Items

$(0.08)

Potash Segment Highlights

In millions, except MOP price

Q3 FY12

Q2 FY12

Q3 FY11

Net sales

$553

$839

$758

Gross Margin

$270

$394

$412

Percent of net sales

49%

47%

54%

Operating earnings

$234

$358

$414

Sales volumes

1.1

1.8

1.9

Production volume

1.8

2.0

Production operating rate

79%

78%

90%

Avg MOP selling price

$453

$440

$358

Third quarter year over year highlights:

•

Operating earnings reflect lower sales volumes; expected to resume in 4Q

•

Operating rates reflect announced curtailments of up to 20% in January through March 2012

•

Average selling price driven by industrial and export average price increases Q/Q

100

200

300

400

500

600

Q3 FY11 OE

Sales Sales volumes

price

Resource

taxes

Other

Q3 FY12 OE

OPERATING EARNINGS BRIDGE

$ IN MILLIONS

Phosphates Segment Highlights

In millions, except DAP price

Q3 FY12

Q2 FY12

Q3 FY11

Net sales

$1,652

$2,179

$1,458

Gross Margin

$259

$476

$454

percent of net sales

16%

22%

31%

Operating earnings

$190

$432

$372

Sales volumes

2.6

3.2

2.4

NA production volume

(a)

2.0

2.1

2.0

Finished product

operating rate

81%

86%

83%

Avg DAP selling price

$536

$611

$543

(a)

Includes crop nutrient dry concentrates and animal feed ingredients

Third quarter year over year highlights:

•

Operating

earnings

are

down

percent,

primarily

result

higher

raw

material

costs

reflected

the

income statement

•

Full

benefits

from

the

Faustina

ammonia

plant

are

expected

realized

FY12

•

Finished product operating rate of 81 percent includes the impact of the previously announced curtailment of

250,000 tonnes in January through March 2012

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

Q3 FY11

Sales

price

Sales

volumes

Raw

materials

Other

Q3 FY12

OPERATING EARNINGS BRIDGE

$ IN MILLIONS

Phosphate Raw Material Costs

Ammonia

$/tonne

Realized costs of raw materials in COGS lag spot prices by approximately 3 months. Realized ammonia costs, in most

periods shown, include a benefit of our manufacture of ammonia at Faustina.

$431

$589

$200

$400

$600

$800

Q2 FY11

Q3 FY11

Q4 FY11

Q1 FY12

Q2 FY12

Q3 FY12

Realized in COGS

Average Purchase Price

Phosphate Raw Material Costs

Sulfur Costs

$/long ton

Realized costs of raw materials in COGS lag spot prices by approximately 3 months. Sulfur realized prices

include storage, conversion and transformation costs of $10 -

$15 / ton.

$228

$211

$100

$200

$300

Q2 FY11

Q3 FY11

Q4 FY11

Q1 FY12

Q2 FY12

Q3 FY12

Realized in COGS

Average Purchase Price

Phosphate Rock Sourcing

Rock Mix used in U.S. Operations

$25

$50

$75

$100

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

Q2 FY11

Q3 FY11

Q4 FY11

Q1 FY12

Q2 FY12

Q3 FY12

US mined rock

Purchased Miski Mayo rock

Other purchased rock

MOSAIC CO - FORM 8-K - EX-99.2 - SLIDES SHOWN DURING THE WEBCAST OF THE CONFERENCE CALL OF THE MOSAIC COMPANY - April 4, 2012

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