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EX-99.1 - PRESS RELEASE ISSUED BY UNITED CONTINENTAL HOLDINGS, INC. DATED JANUARY 26, 2012 - UNITED AIRLINES, INC.d290195dex991.htm
8-K - FORM 8-K - UNITED AIRLINES, INC.d290195d8k.htm

Exhibit 99.2

 

LOGO   LOGO

Issue Date: Jan. 26, 2012

Investor Update

This investor update provides forward-looking information about United Continental Holdings, Inc. (the “Company” or “UAL”) for first quarter and full year 2012.

Capacity

The Company estimates its first quarter 2012 consolidated domestic available seat miles (“ASMs”) to decrease between 2.7% and 3.7% and consolidated international ASMs to increase between 3.2% and 4.2% year-over-year. The Company estimates first quarter consolidated system ASMs to be between up 0.3% and down 0.7% as compared to the same period in the prior year. For the full year, the Company estimates its consolidated system ASMs to be flat to down 1.0% year-over-year.

Non-Fuel Expense Guidance

The Company expects both first quarter and full year 2012 consolidated cost per ASM (CASM), excluding profit sharing, ancillary business expense, fuel, certain accounting charges and merger-related expenses, to increase 2.5% to 3.5% year-over-year.

In an effort to provide more meaningful disclosure, the Company provides non-fuel CASM guidance excluding ancillary business expenses not associated with the generation of a seat mile (third-party businesses). These ancillary businesses include activities such as maintenance, ground handling and catering services for third parties, fuel sales and non-air mileage redemptions. The Company expects to record approximately $65 million of ancillary business expense in the first quarter and $340 million for the full year. Corresponding ancillary business revenue associated with these activities is recorded in Other Revenue.

Fuel Expense

The Company estimates its consolidated fuel price, including the impact of settled cash hedges, to be $3.27 per gallon for the first quarter and full year based on the forward curve as of Jan. 18, 2012.

Non-Operating Expense

The Company estimates first quarter non-operating expense to be between $200 million and $220 million. For the full year, the Company estimates non-operating expense to be between $770 million and $830 million. Non-operating expense includes interest expense, capitalized interest, interest income and other non-operating income/(expense).

Capital Expenditures and Scheduled Debt and Capital Lease Payments

In the first quarter, the Company expects approximately $410 million of gross capital expenditures and $275 million of net capital expenditures, excluding net purchase deposits of $19 million. For the full year, excluding $70 million of net purchase deposit refunds, the Company expects approximately $2.3 billion of gross capital expenditures and $1.3 billion net capital expenditures.

The Company estimates scheduled debt and capital lease payments for the first quarter to be $0.4 billion. For the full year, the Company estimates scheduled debt and capital leases to be $1.3 billion.

Pension Expense and Contributions

The Company estimates that its non-cash pension expense will be approximately $160 million for 2012. This amount excludes non-cash settlement charges related to lump-sum distributions. The Company made $33 million of cash contributions to its tax-qualified defined benefit pension plans to date in January. The Company’s remaining minimum funding requirement is approximately $145 million for 2012.

Taxes

The Company currently expects to record minimal cash income taxes in 2012.

Advance Booked Seat Factor (Percentage of Available Seats that are Sold)

Compared to the same period last year, for the next six weeks, mainline domestic advance booked seat factor is up 1.0 points, mainline international advance booked seat factor is down 3.2 points, mainline Atlantic advance booked seat factor is down 2.8 points, mainline Pacific advance booked seat factor is down 7.6 points and mainline Latin America advance booked seat factor is down 0.4 points. Regional advance booked seat factor is up 0.3 points.


LOGO

Company Outlook

First Quarter and Full Year 2012 Operational Outlook

 

     Estimated
1Q 2012
     Year-Over-Year %
Change

Higher/(Lower)
    Estimated
FY 2012
     Year-Over-Year %
Change

Higher/(Lower)
 

Capacity (Million ASMs)

                                

Mainline Capacity

                                

Domestic

     25,407         —           25,672         (4.4 %)      —           (3.4 %)                 

Atlantic

     11,388         —           11,500         1.2     —           2.2                

Pacific

     9,505         —           9,595         5.3     —           6.3                

Latin America

     5,706         —           5,761         3.2     —           4.2                

Total Mainline Capacity

     52,006         —           52,528         (0.7 %)      —           0.3                

Regional1

     7,755         —           7,835         (0.5 %)      —           0.5                

Consolidated Capacity

                                

Domestic

     32,892         —           33,233         (3.7 %)      —           (2.7 %)      139,124         —           140,563         (3.3 %)      —           (2.3 %) 

International

     26,869         —           27,130         3.2     —           4.2     110,953         —           112,039         2.1     —           3.1

Total Consolidated Capacity

     59,761         —           60,363         (0.7 %)      —           0.3     250,077         —           252,602         (1.0 %)      —           0.0

Traffic (Million RPMs)

                                

Mainline Traffic

                                

Domestic

                                

Atlantic

                                

Pacific

                                

Latin America

                                

Total Mainline System Traffic

     Traffic guidance to be provided at a future date   

Regional System Traffic1

                                

Consolidated System Traffic

                                

Domestic System

                                

International System

                                

Total Consolidated System Traffic

                                

Load Factor

                                

Mainline Load Factor

                                

Domestic

                                

Atlantic

                                

Pacific

                                

Latin America

                                

Total Mainline Load Factor

     Load factor guidance to be provided at a future date   

Regional Load Factor1

                                

Consolidated Load Factor

                                

Domestic

                                

International

                                

Total Consolidated Load Factor

                                

 

1. Regional results reflect flights operated under capacity purchase agreements and flights operated as part of our joint venture with Aer Lingus.

 

2


LOGO

 

Company Outlook

First Quarter and Full Year 2012 Financial Outlook

 

    Estimated
1Q 2012
  Year-Over-Year  %
Change

Higher/(Lower)
  Estimated
FY 2012
  Year-Over-Year  %
Change

Higher/(Lower)

Revenue (¢/ASM, except Cargo and Other Revenue)

       

Mainline Passenger Unit Revenue

       

Regional Passenger Unit Revenue

  Revenue guidance to be provided at a future date

Consolidated Passenger Unit Revenue

       

Cargo and Other Revenue ($B)

       

Operating Expense1 (¢/ASM)

       

Mainline Unit Cost Excluding Profit Sharing & Ancillary Business Expense

  13.66 —
13.75
  9.7% — 10.4%   13.44 —
13.52
  6.2% — 6.8%

Regional Unit Cost

  19.31 —
19.40
  (0.4%) — 0.0%   18.70 —
18.86
  (3.8%) — (3.0%)

Consolidated Unit Cost Excluding Profit Sharing & Ancillary Business Expense

  14.40 —
14.49
  7.9% — 8.5%   14.13 —
14.22
  4.3% — 5.0%

Non-Fuel Expense1 (¢/ASM)

       

Mainline Unit Cost Excluding Profit Sharing, Fuel & Ancillary Business Expense

  8.75 — 8.84   4.5% — 5.5%   8.50 — 8.58   4.5% — 5.5%

Regional Unit Cost Excluding Fuel

  11.62 —
11.71
  (7.1%) — (6.4%)   11.26 —
11.42
  (6.7%) — (5.4%)

Consolidated Unit Cost Excluding Profit Sharing, Fuel & Ancillary Business Expense

  9.12 — 9.21   2.5% — 3.5%   8.86 — 8.95   2.5% — 3.5%

Ancillary Business Expense ($M)

  $65     $340  

Select Expense Measures ($M)

       

Aircraft Rent

  $250     $1,020  

Depreciation and Amortization

  $390     $1,560  

Fuel Expense

       

Mainline Fuel Consumption (Million Gallons)

  790     3,320  

Regional Fuel Consumption (Million Gallons)

  180     730  

Consolidated Fuel Consumption (Million Gallons)

  970     4,050  

Consolidated Fuel Price Excluding Hedges

  $3.21 /
Gallon
    $3.21 /
Gallon
 

Consolidated Fuel Price Including Cash Settled Hedges

  $3.27 /
Gallon
    $3.27 /
Gallon
 

Non-Operating Expense ($M)

  $200 — $220     $770 — $830  

Income Taxes

       

Income Tax Rate

  0%     0%  

Capital Expenditures ($M)

       

Gross Capital Expenditures ex Net Purchase Deposits

  $410     $2,335  

Net Capital Expenditures ex Net Purchase Deposits

  $275     $1,250  

Net Purchase Deposits

  $19     ($70)  

Debt and Capital Lease Obligations ($B)

       

Scheduled Debt and Capital Lease Obligations

  $0.4     $1.3  

 

1. Excludes special charges.

 

3


LOGO

 

Company Outlook

Fuel Hedge Positions by Quarter

As of Jan. 18, 2012, the Company had hedged approximately 42% of its expected first half of 2012 consolidated fuel consumption; further details are as follows:

 

          1Q 2012    2Q 2012    3Q 2012  
          % of
Expected
Consumption
    Weighted
Average
Strike Price
   % of
Expected
Consumption
    Weighted
Average
Strike Price
   % of
Expected
Consumption
    Weighted
Average
Strike Price
 

WTI Crude Oil Call Options

   ($/bbl)      2   $99.40      —                —          

Heating Oil Call Options

   ($/gal)      15   3.23      12   3.20      —          

Jet Fuel Call Options

   ($/gal)      —                —                1   3.13   

Brent Crude Collars

   ($/bbl)      1   115    83      2   115    81      11   115      80   

Heating Oil Collars

   ($/gal)      22   3.17    2.57      22   3.08    2.46      2   3.10      2.35   

Jet Fuel Collars

   ($/gal)      —                —                10   3.10      2.35   

Diesel Fuel Collars

   ($/gal)      —                —                2   3.00      2.35   

WTI Crude Oil Swaps

   ($/bbl)      2   94.43      —                —          

Heating Oil Swaps

   ($/gal)      1   2.93      —                —          

Jet Fuel Swaps

   ($/gal)      5   2.90      —                —          
     

 

 

         

 

 

         

 

 

      

Total

        48           36           26     
     

 

 

         

 

 

         

 

 

      

Fuel Price Sensitivity

The table below outlines the Company’s estimated settled hedge impacts at various crude oil prices, based on the hedge portfolio as of Jan. 18, 2012:

 

Crude Oil Price*

  

Cash Settled Hedge Impact

   1Q12     2Q12     3Q12     4Q12     FY12  

$115 per Barrel

  

Fuel Price Excluding Hedge** ($/gal)

   $ 3.46      $ 3.54      $ 3.56      $ 3.53      $ 3.52   
  

Increase/(Decrease) to Fuel Expense ($/gal)

   ($ 0.03   ($ 0.04   ($ 0.08   ($ 0.06   ($ 0.05

$110 per Barrel

  

Fuel Price Excluding Hedge** ($/gal)

   $ 3.37      $ 3.42      $ 3.44      $ 3.41      $ 3.41   
  

Increase/(Decrease) to Fuel Expense ($/gal)

   $ 0.01      $ 0.02      ($ 0.02   ($ 0.01   ($ 0.00

$105 per Barrel

  

Fuel Price Excluding Hedge** ($/gal)

   $ 3.28      $ 3.30      $ 3.32      $ 3.29      $ 3.30   
  

Increase/(Decrease) to Fuel Expense ($/gal)

   $ 0.04      $ 0.05      $ 0.02      $ 0.02      $ 0.03   

$101.19 per Barrel

  

Fuel Price Excluding Hedge** ($/gal)

   $ 3.21      $ 3.21      $ 3.23      $ 3.20      $ 3.21   
  

Increase/(Decrease) to Fuel Expense ($/gal)

   $ 0.05      $ 0.05      $ 0.03      $ 0.03      $ 0.04   

$95 per Barrel

  

Fuel Price Excluding Hedge** ($/gal)

   $ 3.10      $ 3.07      $ 3.08      $ 3.06      $ 3.07   
  

Increase/(Decrease) to Fuel Expense ($/gal)

   $ 0.06      $ 0.05      $ 0.03      $ 0.03      $ 0.04   

$90 per Barrel

  

Fuel Price Excluding Hedge** ($/gal)

   $ 3.01      $ 2.95      $ 2.96      $ 2.94      $ 2.96   
  

Increase/(Decrease) to Fuel Expense ($/gal)

   $ 0.07      $ 0.05      $ 0.03      $ 0.03      $ 0.05   

$85 per Barrel

  

Fuel Price Excluding Hedge** ($/gal)

   $ 2.91      $ 2.83      $ 2.84      $ 2.82      $ 2.85   
  

Increase/(Decrease) to Fuel Expense ($/gal)

   $ 0.08      $ 0.05      $ 0.03      $ 0.03      $ 0.05   

$80 per Barrel

  

Fuel Price Excluding Hedge** ($/gal)

   $ 2.82      $ 2.71      $ 2.72      $ 2.70      $ 2.74   
  

Increase/(Decrease) to Fuel Expense ($/gal)

   $ 0.10      $ 0.06      $ 0.03      $ 0.03      $ 0.05   

$75 per Barrel

  

Fuel Price Excluding Hedge** ($/gal)

   $ 2.73      $ 2.59      $ 2.60      $ 2.58      $ 2.62   
  

Increase/(Decrease) to Fuel Expense ($/gal)

   $ 0.12      $ 0.07      $ 0.03      $ 0.03      $ 0.06   

$70 per Barrel

  

Fuel Price Excluding Hedge** ($/gal)

   $ 2.64      $ 2.47      $ 2.49      $ 2.46      $ 2.51   
  

Increase/(Decrease) to Fuel Expense ($/gal)

   $ 0.14      $ 0.10      $ 0.04      $ 0.03      $ 0.08   

 

* Projected impacts assume a common, parallel jet fuel refining crack spread consistent with Jan. 18, 2012 forward prices and a parallel crude forward price curve consistent with Jan. 18, 2012 forward prices. Row headings refer to illustrative spot closing prices on Jan. 18, 2012.
** Fuel price per gallon excluding hedge impacts, but including taxes and transportation costs.

 

4


LOGO

 

Company Outlook

Fleet Plan

As of Jan. 26, 2012, the Company’s fleet plan, including aircraft operated by the Company or on the Company’s behalf under a capacity purchase agreement is as follows:

 

     Mainline Aircraft   
     YE 2011      1Q 2012 D     2Q 2012 D     3Q 2012 D     4Q 2012 D     YE 2012      FY YOY D  

B747-400

     23         —          —          —          —          23         —     

B777-200

     74         —          —          —          —          74         —     

B787-8

     —           —          —          2        3        5         5   

B767-200/300/400

     59         —          (3     —          (2     54         (5

B757-200/300

     155         —          —          (1     (4     150         (5

B737-500/700/800/900

     238         (4     5        (3     2        238         —     

A319/A320

     152         —          —          —          —          152         —     
  

 

 

    

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

    

 

 

 

Total Mainline Aircraft

     701         (4     2        (2     (1     696         (5
     Regional Aircraft  
     YE 2011      1Q 2012 D     2Q 2012 D     3Q 2012 D     4Q 2012 D     YE 2012      FY YOY D  

Q400

     30         —          —          —          —          30         —     

Q300

     5         —          —          —          —          5         —     

Q200

     16         —          —          —          —          16         —     

ERJ-145

     263         (3     (1     (1     3        261         (2

CRJ200

     79         (4     —          —          —          75         (4

CRJ700

     115         —          —          —          (5     110         (5

EMB 120

     9         —          —          —          —          9         —     

EMB 170

     38         —          —          —          —          38         —     
  

 

 

    

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

    

 

 

 

Total Regional Aircraft

     555         (7     (1     (1     (2     544         (11

Total Aircraft

     1,256         (11     1        (3     (3     1,240         (16

Share Count

These share count charts are based upon several assumptions including market stock price and number of shares outstanding. The number of shares used in the actual earnings per share calculation will likely be different from those set forth below.

 

     1Q 2012 (Estimated)
     Basic Share Count    Diluted Share Count    Interest Add-back

Net Income

   (in millions)    (in millions)    (in $ millions)

Less than or equal to $0

   330    330    $—

$1 million - $36 million

   330    331   

$37 million - $61 million

   330    371    4

$62 million - $111 million

   330    383    7

$112 million - $297 million

   330    388    8

$298 million or greater

   330    392    11
   Full Year 2012 (Estimated)
   Basic Share Count    Diluted Share Count    Interest Add-back

Net Income

   (in millions)    (in millions)    (in $ millions)

Less than or equal to $0

   331    331    $—

$1 million - $145 million

   331    332   

$146 million - $248 million

   331    372    17

$249 million - $447 million

   331    384    26

$448 million - $1,195 million

   331    389    32

$1,196 million or greater

   331    393    46

 

5


LOGO

 

Passenger Revenue Reclassification

In the fourth quarter or 2011, the Company reclassified revenue associated with mileage redemption activity for non-air travel awards from Passenger Revenue to Other Revenue. This change was made retrospectively and 2010 and 2011 results were restated to reflect the reclassification. The adjustment to prior periods is below:

 

     2010     2011  

($ millions)

  

1Q

   

2Q

   

3Q

   

4Q

   

FY

   

1Q

   

2Q

   

3Q

   

4Q

   

FY

 

Passenger Revenue

                    

Mainline

   ($ 35   ($ 25   ($ 25   ($ 32   ($ 117   ($ 55   ($ 30   ($ 28   ($ 24   ($ 137

Regional

     (8     (5     (6     (8     (27     (14     (7     (7     (6     (34
  

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

   

 

 

 

Consolidated

   ($ 43   ($ 30   ($ 31   ($ 40   ($ 144   ($ 69   ($ 37   ($ 35   ($ 30   ($ 171

Other Revenue

                    

Other Operating Revenue

   $ 43      $ 30      $ 31      $ 40      $ 144      $ 69      $ 37      $ 35      $ 30      $ 171   

Total Revenue

     —          —          —          —          —          —          —          —          —          —     

Updated financial statements are available for download at www.united.com/ir on the Pro-Forma Financials page under Investor Resources.

Non-GAAP to GAAP Reconciliations

Pursuant to SEC Regulation G, the Company has included the following reconciliation of reported non-GAAP financial measures to comparable financial measures reported on a GAAP basis. The Company believes that excluding fuel costs and certain other items from some measures is useful to investors because it provides an additional measure of management’s performance excluding the effects of a significant cost item over which management has limited influence, and the effects of certain other items that would otherwise make analysis of the Company’s operating performance more difficult.

 

     Estimated 1Q 2012      Estimated FY 2012  
Mainline Unit Cost (¢/ASM)    Low      High      Low      High  

Mainline CASM Excluding Profit Sharing

     13.79         13.88         13.59         13.67   

Special Items and other exclusions (a)

                                           
  

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

 

Mainline CASM Excluding Profit Sharing & Special Items (b)

     13.79         13.88         13.59         13.67   

Less: Ancillary Business Expense

     0.13         0.13         0.15         0.15   
  

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

 

Mainline CASM Excluding Profit Sharing, Special Items & Ancillary Business Expense (b)

     13.66         13.75         13.44         13.52   

Less: Fuel Expense (c)

     4.91         4.91         4.94         4.94   
  

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

 

Mainline CASM Excluding Profit Sharing, Ancillary Business Expense, Fuel & Special Items (b)

     8.75         8.84         8.50         8.58   
Regional Unit Cost (¢/ASM)    Low      High      Low      High  

Regional CASM

     19.31         19.40         18.70         18.86   

Less: Fuel Expense

     7.69         7.69         7.44         7.44   
  

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

 

Regional CASM Excluding Fuel

     11.62         11.71         11.26         11.42   
Consolidated Unit Cost (¢/ASM)    Low      High      Low      High  

Consolidated CASM Excluding Profit Sharing

     14.51         14.60         14.26         14.35   

Special Items and other exclusions (a)

                                           
  

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

 

Consolidated CASM Excluding Profit Sharing & Special Items (b)

     14.51         14.60         14.26         14.35   

Less: Ancillary Business Expense

     0.11         0.11         0.13         0.13   
  

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

 

Consolidated CASM Excluding Profit Sharing, Ancillary Business Expense & Special Items (b)

     14.40         14.49         14.13         14.22   

Less: Fuel Expense (c)

     5.28         5.28         5.27         5.27   
  

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

    

 

 

 

Consolidated CASM Excluding Profit Sharing, Ancillary Business Expense, Fuel & Special Items (b)

     9.12         9.21         8.86         8.95   

 

(a) Operating expense per ASM – CASM excludes special items, the impact of certain primarily non-cash impairment, severance and other similar accounting charges. While the Company anticipates that it will record such special items and charges throughout the year and may record profit sharing, at this time the Company is unable to provide an estimate of these items with reasonable certainty.

 

(b) These financial measures provide management and investors the ability to measure and monitor the Company’s performance on a consistent basis.

 

(c) Both the cost and availability of fuel are subject to many economic and political factors and are therefore beyond the Company’s control.

Safe Harbor Statement under the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995:

Certain statements included in this investor update are forward-looking and thus reflect our current expectations and beliefs with respect to certain current and future events and financial performance. Such forward-looking statements are and will be subject to many risks and uncertainties relating to our operations and business environment that may cause actual results to differ materially from any future results expressed or implied in such forward-looking statements. Words such as “expects,” “will,” “plans,” “anticipates,” “indicates,” “believes,” “forecast,” “guidance,” “outlook” and similar expressions are intended to identify forward-looking statements. Additionally, forward-looking statements include statements which do not relate solely to historical facts, such as statements which identify uncertainties or trends, discuss the possible future effects of current known trends or uncertainties, or which

 

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indicate that the future effects of known trends or uncertainties cannot be predicted, guaranteed or assured. All forward-looking statements in this investor update are based upon information available to us on the date of this investor update. We undertake no obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statement, whether as a result of new information, future events, changed circumstances or otherwise, except as required by applicable law. Our actual results could differ materially from these forward-looking statements due to numerous factors including, without limitation, the following: our ability to comply with the terms of our various financing arrangements; the costs and availability of financing; our ability to maintain adequate liquidity; our ability to execute our operational plans; our ability to control our costs, including realizing benefits from our resource optimization efforts, cost reduction initiatives and fleet replacement programs; our ability to utilize our net operating losses; our ability to attract and retain customers; demand for transportation in the markets in which we operate; an outbreak of a disease that affects travel demand or travel behavior; demand for travel and the impact that global economic conditions have on customer travel patterns; excessive taxation and the inability to offset future taxable income; general economic conditions (including interest rates, foreign currency exchange rates, investment or credit market conditions, crude oil prices, costs of aviation fuel and energy refining capacity in relevant markets); our ability to cost-effectively hedge against increases in the price of aviation fuel; any potential realized or unrealized gains or losses related to fuel or currency hedging programs; the effects of any hostilities, act of war or terrorist attack; the ability of other air carriers with whom we have alliances or partnerships to provide the services contemplated by the respective arrangements with such carriers; the costs and availability of aviation and other insurance; the costs associated with security measures and practices; industry consolidation or changes in airline alliances; competitive pressures on pricing and on demand; our capacity decisions and the capacity decisions of our competitors; U.S. or foreign governmental legislation, regulation and other actions (including open skies agreements and environmental regulations); labor costs; our ability to maintain satisfactory labor relations and the results of the collective bargaining agreement process with our union groups; any disruptions to operations due to any potential actions by our labor groups; weather conditions; the possibility that expected merger synergies will not be realized or will not be realized within the expected time period; and other risks and uncertainties set forth under Item 1A., Risk Factors of our Annual Report on Form 10-K, as well as other risks and uncertainties set forth from time to time in the reports we file with the SEC. Consequently, forward-looking statements should not be regarded as representations or warranties by us that such matters will be realized.

For further questions, contact Investor Relations at (312) 997-8610 or investorrelations@united.com

 

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