PROGRESSIVE CORP/OH/ - FORM 8-K - EX-99

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8-K - 8-K - PROGRESSIVE CORP/OH/	d271063d8k.htm

Exhibit 99


				NEWS RELEASE

The Progressive Corporation 6300 Wilson Mills Road Mayfield Village, Ohio 44143 http://www.progressive.com				Company Contact: Matt Downing (440) 395-4222

PROGRESSIVE REPORTS NOVEMBER RESULTS

MAYFIELD VILLAGE, OHIO — December 14, 2011 — The Progressive Corporation today reported the following results for November 2011:


(millions, except per share amounts and ratios; unaudited)	November 2011		November 2010		Change
Net premiums written	$	1,071.9	$	1,011.7		6	%
Net premiums earned	$	1,163.7	$	1,117.0		4	%
Net income	$	124.7	$	109.9		13	%
Per share	$	.20	$	.17		22	%
Total pretax net realized gains (losses) on securities (including net impairment losses)	$	42.1	$	29.4		43	%
Combined ratio		90.1		90.7		(.6	)pts.
Average diluted equivalent shares		612.7		659.8		(7	)%


(in thousands; unaudited)	November 2011		November 2010		Change
Policies in Force:
Agency – Auto		4,653.5		4,486.5		4	%
Direct – Auto		3,851.4		3,610.5		7	%

Total Personal Auto		8,504.9		8,097.0		5	%
Total Special Lines		3,805.2		3,627.3		5	%

Total Personal Lines		12,310.1		11,724.3		5	%

Total Commercial Auto		511.4		514.0		(1	)%

Progressive offers insurance to personal and commercial auto drivers throughout the United States. Our Personal Lines business writes insurance for personal autos and recreational vehicles. Our Commercial Auto business writes primary liability, physical damage, and other auto-related insurance for autos and trucks owned by small businesses.

See the “Income Statements” and “Supplemental Information” for further month and year-to-date information and the “Monthly Commentary” at the end of this release for additional discussion.

THE PROGRESSIVE CORPORATION AND SUBSIDIARIES

INCOME STATEMENT

November 2011

(millions – except per share amounts)

(unaudited)


	Current Month		Comments on Monthly Results¹
Net premiums written	$	1,071.9

Revenues:
Net premiums earned	$	1,163.7
Investment income		42.4
Net realized gains (losses) on securities:
Other-than-temporary impairment (OTTI) losses:
Total OTTI losses		0
Non-credit losses, net of credit losses recognized on previously recorded non-credit OTTI losses		0

Net impairment losses recognized in earnings		0

Net realized gains (losses) on securities		42.1

Total net realized gains (losses) on securities		42.1
Service revenues		1.8

Total revenues		1,250.0

Expenses:
Losses and loss adjustment expenses		797.0
Policy acquisition costs		108.9
Other underwriting expenses		142.5
Investment expenses		1.0
Service expenses		1.6
Interest expense		12.1

Total expenses		1,063.1

Income before income taxes		186.9
Provision for income taxes		62.2

Net income	$	124.7

COMPUTATION OF EARNINGS PER SHARE
Basic:
Average shares outstanding		607.9

Per share	$	.21

Diluted:
Average shares outstanding		607.9
Net effect of dilutive stock-based compensation		4.8

Total equivalent shares		612.7

Per share	$	.20

See the Monthly Commentary at the end of this release for additional discussion. For a description of our reporting and accounting policies, see Note 1 to our 2010 audited consolidated financial statements included in our 2010 Shareholders’ Report, which can be found at www.progressive.com/annualreport.

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THE PROGRESSIVE CORPORATION AND SUBSIDIARIES

INCOME STATEMENTS

November 2011 Year-to-Date

(millions – except per share amounts)

(unaudited)


	Year-to-Date
	2011			2010			% Change
Net premiums written	$	14,135.1		$	13,547.7			4

Revenues:
Net premiums earned	$	13,738.1		$	13,202.2			4
Investment income		440.1			477.0			(8	)
Net realized gains (losses) on securities:
Other-than-temporary impairment (OTTI) losses:
Total OTTI losses		(6.0	)		(19.1	)		(69	)
Non-credit losses, net of credit losses recognized on previously recorded non-credit OTTI losses		.9			5.3			(83	)

Net impairment losses recognized in earnings		(5.1	)		(13.8	)		(63	)
Net realized gains (losses) on securities		130.8			87.0			50

Total net realized gains (losses) on securities		125.7			73.2			72
Service revenues		20.7			17.2			20
Net gain (loss) on extinguishment of debt		(.1	)		6.4			NM

Total revenues		14,324.5			13,776.0			4

Expenses:
Losses and loss adjustment expenses		9,816.5			9,336.7			5
Policy acquisition costs		1,290.4			1,254.0			3
Other underwriting expenses		1,686.4			1,615.1			4
Investment expenses		12.3			10.1			22
Service expenses		17.5			19.6			(11	)
Interest expense		120.6			123.1			(2	)

Total expenses		12,943.7			12,358.6			5

Income before income taxes		1,380.8			1,417.4			(3	)
Provision for income taxes		441.6			461.9			(4	)

Net income	$	939.2		$	955.5			(2	)

COMPUTATION OF EARNINGS PER SHARE
Basic:
Average shares outstanding		634.8			658.3			(4	)

Per share	$	1.48		$	1.45			2

Diluted:
Average shares outstanding		634.8			658.3			(4	)
Net effect of dilutive stock-based compensation		4.3			5.3			(19	)

Total equivalent shares		639.1			663.6			(4	)

Per share	$	1.47		$	1.44			2

NM = Not Meaningful

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THE PROGRESSIVE CORPORATION AND SUBSIDIARIES

INCOME STATEMENT – OTHER INFORMATION

November 2011

(millions – except per share amounts)

(unaudited)

The following table sets forth the comprehensive income for the period:


	Current			Year-to-Date
	Month			2011			2010
Net income	$	124.7		$	939.2		$	955.5

After-tax changes in:
Net unrealized gains (losses) on securities		(51.5	)		(119.1	)		341.0
Net non-credit related OTTI losses		0			(.6	)		(3.5	)

Total net unrealized gains (losses) on securities		(51.5	)		(119.7	)		337.5
Net unrealized gains on forecasted transactions		(.2	)		(6.5	)		(6.7	)
Foreign currency translation adjustment		(.1	)		.1			.3

Comprehensive income	$	72.9		$	813.1		$	1,286.6

Per share	$	.12		$	1.27		$	1.94

The following table sets forth the investment results for the period:


	Current			Year-to-Date
	Month			2011			2010
Fully taxable equivalent total return:
Fixed-income securities		.1	%		3.0	%		7.0	%
Common stocks		(.1	)%		1.7	%		9.7	%
Total portfolio		.1	%		2.7	%		7.4	%

Pretax recurring investment book yield		3.4	%		3.3	%		3.5	%

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THE PROGRESSIVE CORPORATION AND SUBSIDIARIES

SUPPLEMENTAL INFORMATION

November 2011

($ in millions)

(unaudited)


Current Month
										Commercial
	Personal Lines Business									Auto			Other			Companywide
	Agency			Direct			Total			Business			Businesses¹			Total
Net Premiums Written	$	544.5		$	418.6		$	963.1		$	108.8		$	0		$	1,071.9
% Growth in NPW		4	%		6	%		5	%		13	%		NM			6	%
Net Premiums Earned	$	592.0		$	454.5		$	1,046.5		$	117.0		$	.2		$	1,163.7
% Growth in NPE		3	%		6	%		4	%		4	%		NM			4	%
GAAP Ratios
Loss/LAE ratio		70.7			66.9			69.1			62.4			NM			68.5
Expense ratio		21.1			22.1			21.5			22.2			NM			21.6

Combined ratio		91.8			89.0			90.6			84.6			NM			90.1

Actuarial Adjustments²
Reserve Decrease/(Increase)
Prior accident years																$	17.3
Current accident year																	31.1

Calendar year actuarial adjustment	$	9.0		$	36.1		$	45.1		$	4.5		$	(1.2	)	$	48.4

Prior Accident Years Development
Favorable/(Unfavorable)
Actuarial adjustment																$	17.3
All other development																	.3

Total development																$	17.6

Calendar year loss/LAE ratio																	68.5

Accident year loss/LAE ratio																	70.0

Statutory Ratios
Loss/LAE ratio																	68.5
Expense ratio																	22.7

Combined ratio																	91.2

¹	The other businesses generated an underwriting loss of $1.1 million for the month. Combined ratios and % growth are not meaningful (NM) due to the low level of premiums earned by, and the variability of loss costs in, such businesses.

²	Represents adjustments solely based on our corporate actuarial reviews.

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THE PROGRESSIVE CORPORATION AND SUBSIDIARIES

SUPPLEMENTAL INFORMATION

November 2011 Year-to-Date

($ in millions)

(unaudited)


Year-to-Date
										Commercial
	Personal Lines Business									Auto			Other			Companywide
	Agency			Direct			Total			Business			Businesses¹			Total
Net Premiums Written	$	7,187.5		$	5,513.8		$	12,701.3		$	1,433.7		$	.1		$	14,135.1
% Growth in NPW		3	%		7	%		4	%		5	%		NM			4	%
Net Premiums Earned	$	7,034.8		$	5,348.9		$	12,383.7		$	1,350.0		$	4.4		$	13,738.1
% Growth in NPE		3	%		7	%		5	%		(1	)%		NM			4	%

GAAP Ratios
Loss/LAE ratio		71.8			71.4			71.7			69.4			NM			71.4
Expense ratio		20.8			22.7			21.6			22.1			NM			21.7

Combined ratio		92.6			94.1			93.3			91.5			NM			93.1


Actuarial Adjustments²
Reserve Decrease/(Increase)
Prior accident years																$	150.7
Current accident year																	69.3

Calendar year actuarial adjustment	$	77.0		$	96.2		$	173.2		$	48.0		$	(1.2	)	$	220.0


Prior Accident Years Development
Favorable/(Unfavorable)
Actuarial adjustment																$	150.7
All other development																	85.6

Total development																$	236.3

Calendar year loss/LAE ratio																	71.4

Accident year loss/LAE ratio																	73.1

Statutory Ratios
Loss/LAE ratio																	71.4
Expense ratio																	21.5

Combined ratio																	92.9

Statutory Surplus³																$	5,492.3

NM = Not Meaningful

¹	For the year, the other businesses generated an underwriting loss of $5.0 million.

²	Represents adjustments solely based on our corporate actuarial reviews.

³	During November, the insurance subsidiaries declared $128.7 million of dividends and net returns of capital, of which $44.6 million were paid during the month; the remaining $84.1 million will be paid in December.

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THE PROGRESSIVE CORPORATION AND SUBSIDIARIES

BALANCE SHEET AND OTHER INFORMATION

(millions – except per share amounts)

(unaudited)


	November 2011
CONDENSED GAAP BALANCE SHEET:
Investments – Available-for-sale, at fair value:
Fixed maturities¹(amortized cost: $11,615.9)	$	11,894.4
Equity securities:
Nonredeemable preferred stocks¹(cost: $473.7)		814.5
Common equities (cost: $1,416.9)		1,793.5
Short-term investments (amortized cost: $1,870.7)		1,870.7

Total investments^{2, 3}		16,373.1
Net premiums receivable		3,020.7
Deferred acquisition costs		448.1
Other assets⁴		2,464.3

Total assets	$	22,306.2


Unearned premiums	$	4,737.7
Loss and loss adjustment expense reserves⁴		7,258.5
Other liabilities³		1,908.6
Debt		2,442.0
Shareholders’ equity		5,959.4

Total liabilities and shareholders’ equity	$	22,306.2


Common shares outstanding		613.7
Shares repurchased – November		3.1
Average cost per share	$	18.69
Book value per share	$	9.71
Trailing 12-month return on average shareholders’ equity		17.0	%
Net unrealized pretax gains (losses) on investments	$	996.3
Increase (decrease) from October 2011	$	(79.2	)
Increase (decrease) from December 2010	$	(184.2	)
Debt-to-total capital ratio		29.1	%
Fixed-income portfolio duration		1.8	years
Weighted average credit quality		AA-
Year-to-date Gainshare factor		1.07

¹	As of November 30, 2011, we held certain hybrid securities and recognized a change in fair value of $0.4 million as a realized loss during the period we held these securities.

²	Includes $5.0 billion of short-term investments and U.S. Treasury securities prior to settling $68.9 million of net security transactions outstanding at month-end.

³	Includes $68.9 million of net unsettled security transactions (as discussed in note 2 above).

⁴	Loss and loss adjustment expense reserves are stated gross of reinsurance recoverables on unpaid losses of $763.3 million, which are included in “other assets.”

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Monthly Commentary

On December 9, 2011, the Board of Directors declared an annual variable dividend to be paid on February 3, 2012, to shareholders of record at the close of business on January 26, 2012. The amount of the dividend will be determined based on the Company’s 2011 financial results, subject to the limitations included in our annual variable dividend policy. See our News Release dated December 9, 2011, which can be found at http://investors.progressive.com/pdf/dividendreport-1211.pdf, for further details.

Events

We are currently scheduled to release December results on Thursday, January 19, 2012, before the market opens.

About Progressive

The Progressive Group of Insurance Companies makes it easy to understand, buy, and use auto insurance. Progressive offers choices so consumers can reach us whenever, wherever, and however it’s most convenient for them—online at http://www.progressive.com, by phone at 1-800-PROGRESSIVE, or in-person with a local agent.

Progressive offers insurance for personal and commercial autos and trucks, motorcycles, boats, recreational vehicles, and homes. We’re the fourth largest auto insurer in the country, the largest seller of motorcycle insurance, and a leader in commercial auto insurance. Progressive also offers car insurance online in Australia at http://www.progressiveonline.com.au.

Founded in 1937, Progressive continues its long history of offering shopping tools and services that save customers time and money, like Name Your Price^®, the Snapshot Discount^®, and a concierge level of claims service.

The Common Shares of The Progressive Corporation, the Mayfield Village, Ohio-based holding company, trade publicly at NYSE:PGR.

Safe Harbor Statement Under the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995: Statements in this release that are not historical fact are forward-looking statements that are subject to certain risks and uncertainties that could cause actual events and results to differ materially from those discussed herein. These risks and uncertainties include, without limitation, uncertainties related to estimates, assumptions, and projections generally; inflation and changes in economic conditions (including changes in interest rates and financial markets); the possible failure of one or more governmental entities to make scheduled debt payments or satisfy other obligations; the potential or actual downgrading of governmental, corporate, or other securities by a rating agency; the financial condition of, and other issues relating to the strength of and liquidity available to, issuers of securities held in our investment portfolios and other companies with which we have ongoing business relationships, including counterparties to certain financial transactions; the accuracy and adequacy of our pricing and loss reserving methodologies; the competitiveness of our pricing and the effectiveness of our initiatives to retain more customers; initiatives by competitors and the effectiveness of our response; our ability to obtain regulatory approval for requested rate changes and the timing thereof; the effectiveness of our brand strategy and advertising campaigns relative to those of competitors; legislative and regulatory developments, including, but not limited to, health care reform and tax law changes; disputes relating to intellectual property rights; the outcome of litigation pending or that may be filed against us; weather conditions (including the severity and frequency of storms, hurricanes, snowfalls, hail, and winter conditions); changes in driving patterns and loss trends; acts of war and terrorist activities; our ability to maintain the uninterrupted operation of our facilities, systems (including information technology systems), and business functions; court decisions and trends in litigation and health care and auto repair costs; and other matters described from time to time in our releases and publications, and in our periodic reports and other documents filed with the United States Securities and Exchange Commission. In addition, investors should be aware that generally accepted accounting principles prescribe when a company may reserve for particular risks, including litigation exposures. Accordingly, results for a given reporting period could be significantly affected if and when a reserve is established for one or more contingencies. Also, our regular reserve reviews may result in adjustments of varying magnitude as additional information regarding claims activity becomes known. Reported results, therefore, may be volatile in certain accounting periods.

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