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EX-99.1 - EX-99.1 - ASSURED GUARANTY LTDa11-29826_1ex99d1.htm
8-K - 8-K - ASSURED GUARANTY LTDa11-29826_18k.htm

Exhibit 99.2

Table of Contents Page Selected Financial Highlights 1 Consolidated Statements of Operations (unaudited) 2 Net Income (Loss) Reconciliation to Operating Income 3-4 Consolidated Balance Sheets (unaudited) 5 Adjusted Book Value 6 Claims Paying Resources 7 New Business Production 8 Financial Guaranty Gross Par Written 9 New Business Production by Quarter 10 Available-for-Sale Investment Portfolio and Cash 11 Estimated Net Exposure Amortization and Estimated Future Net Premium and Credit Derivative Revenues 12 Expected Amortization of Net Par Outstanding 13 Present Value of Financial Guaranty Insurance Net Expected Loss to be Expensed 14 Financial Guaranty Profile 15-17 Direct Pooled Corporate Obligations Profile 18 Consolidated U.S. RMBS Profile 19 Direct U.S. RMBS Profile 20-21 Direct U.S. Commercial Real Estate Profile 22 Direct U.S. Consumer Receivables Profile 23 Below Investment Grade Exposures 24-28 Assured Guaranty Ltd. Financial Supplement September 30, 2011 Largest Exposures by Sector 29-32 Rollforward of Net Expected Loss and Loss Adjustment Expense to be Paid 33 Financial Guaranty Insurance and Credit Derivative U.S. RMBS Representations and Warranties Benefit Development 34 Losses Incurred 35 Summary Financial and Statistical Data 36 Glossary 37-38 Non-GAAP Financial Measures 39-40 Some amounts in this financial supplement may not add due to rounding. This financial supplement should be read in conjunction with documents filed by Assured Guaranty Ltd. (‘‘AGL’’ and, together with its subsidiaries, ‘‘Assured Guaranty’’ or the ‘‘Company’’) with the Securities and Exchange Commission (‘‘SEC’’), including its Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2010, as amended, and its Quarterly Reports on Form 10-Q for the period ended March 31, 2011 and June 30, 2011, each as amended, and its Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q for the period ended September 30, 2011. The GAAP financial results and non-GAAP financial measures contained in this Financial Supplement reflect the Company’s restatement of its previously issued 2010 and 2009 financial statements to correct the elimination of intercompany activity between the Company’s insurance subsidiaries and its consolidated financial guaranty variable interest entities and other immaterial errors. Cautionary Statement Regarding Forward-Looking Statements: Any forward-looking statements made in this supplement reflect the current views of Assured Guaranty with respect to future events and financial performance and are made pursuant to the safe harbor provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Such statements involve risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from those set forth in these statements. The Company’s forward looking statements could be affected by many events. These events include (1) rating agency action, including a ratings downgrade, a change in outlook, the placement of ratings on watch for downgrade, or a change in rating criteria, at any time, of AGL or any of its subsidiaries and/or of transactions that AGL’s subsidiaries have insured, all of which have occurred in the past; (2) developments in the world’s financial and capital markets that adversely affect issuers’ payment rates, the Company’s loss experience, its ability to cede exposure to reinsurers, its access to capital, its unrealized (losses) gains on derivative financial instruments or its investment returns; (3) changes in the world’s credit markets, segments thereof or general economic conditions; (4) more severe or frequent losses implicating the adequacy of the Company’s expected loss estimates; (5) the impact of market volatility on the mark-to-market of the Company’s contracts written in credit default swap form; (6) reduction in the amount of insurance or reinsurance opportunities available to the Company; (7) deterioration in the financial condition of our reinsurers, the amount and timing of reinsurance recoverables actually received and the risk that reinsurers may dispute amount s owed to us under our reinsurance agreements; (8) the possibility that the Company will not realize insurance loss recoveries or damages expected from originators, sellers, sponsors, underwriters or servicers of residential mortgage-backed securities transactions; (9) increased competition; (10) changes in applicable accounting policies or practices; (11) changes in applicable laws or regulations, including insurance and tax laws; (12) other governmental actions; (13) difficulties with the execution of the Company’s business strategy; (14) contract cancellations; (15) the Company’s dependence on customers; (16) loss of key personnel; (17) adverse technological developments; (18) the effects of mergers, acquisitions and divestitures; (19) natural or man-made catastrophes; (20) other risks and uncertainties that have not been identified at this time; (21) management’s response to these factors; and (22) other risk factors identified in Assured Guaranty’s filings with the SEC. Readers are cautioned not to place undue reliance on these forward looking statements, which speak only as of the dates on which they are made. The Company undertakes no obligation to publicly update or revise any forward looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise, except as required by law.

 


2011 2010 2011 2010 Operating income reconciliation: Operating income 38.3 $ 222.6 $ 430.9 $ 511.4 $ Plus after-tax adjustments: Realized gains (losses) on investments (12.6) (1.3) (13.5) 1.1 Non-credit impairment unrealized fair value gains (losses) on credit derivatives 800.1 (187.1) 508.8 84.3 Fair value gains (losses) on committed capital securities 1.6 (3.6) 2.3 3.8 Foreign exchange gains (losses) on revaluation of premiums receivable (15.5) 24.4 (2.5) (17.6) Effect of consolidating financial guaranty variable interest entities ("VIEs") (50.7) 109.6 (66.8) 94.2 Net income (loss) 761.2 $ 164.6 $ 859.2 $ 677.2 $ Earnings per diluted share: Operating income 0.21 $ 1.19 $ 2.31 $ 2.70 $ Plus after-tax adjustments: Realized gains (losses) on investments (0.07) (0.01) (0.07) 0.01 Non-credit impairment unrealized fair value gains (losses) on credit 4.34 (1.00) 2.72 0.45 Fair value gains (losses) on committed capital securities 0.01 (0.02) 0.01 0.02 Foreign exchange gains (losses) on revaluation of premiums (0.08) 0.13 (0.01) (0.09) Effect of consolidating financial guaranty VIEs (0.28) 0.59 (0.36) 0.50 Net income (loss) 4.13 $ 0.88 $ 4.61 $ 3.58 $ Effective tax rate on operating income 32.6% (2.8)% 26.3% 19.4% Effective tax rate on net income 27.9% (8.5)% 27.3% 21.4% Return on equity ("ROE") calculations 1: ROE, excluding unrealized gain (loss) on investment portfolio 73.7% 17.6% 28.2% 25.1% Operating ROE 3.0% 19.8% 11.6% 15.6% New Business: Gross par written 4,608 $ 7,426 $ 11,300 $ 22,875 $ Present value of new business production ("PVP") 2 50.8 $ 88.9 $ 155.2 $ 257.6 $ Other information: September 30, 2011 December 31, 2010 Net debt service outstanding 865,692 $ 927,143 $ Net par outstanding 571,725 617,131 Claims paying resources 3 13,002 12,630 1. Quarterly ROE calculations represent annualized returns. 2. Please refer to the explanation within the Non-GAAP Financial Measures. 3. See page 7 for additional detail on claims paying resources. Assured Guaranty Ltd. Selected Financial Highlights (dollars in millions, except per share amounts) Nine Months Ended As of September 30, September 30, Three Months Ended Page 1

 


2011 2010 2011 2010 Revenues: Net earned premiums 211.1 $ 288.7 $ 695.1 $ 900.4 $ Net investment income 93.5 85.6 290.7 260.8 Net realized investment gains (losses) (11.1) (2.4) (13.4) (1.4) Net change in fair value of credit derivatives: Realized gains and other settlements 0.5 52.4 25.1 117.5 Net unrealized gains (losses) 1,155.4 (276.4) 829.8 10.8 Net change in fair value of credit derivatives 1,155.9 (224.0) 854.9 128.3 Fair value gains (losses) on committed capital securities 2.4 (5.5) 3.5 5.8 Net change in fair value of financial guaranty VIEs (99.2) 171.3 (153.9) 135.0 Other income (7.6) 33.8 63.4 7.4 Total revenues 1,345.0 347.5 1,740.3 1,436.3 Expenses: Loss and loss adjustment expenses 214.9 110.8 313.3 307.4 Amortization of deferred acquisition costs 7.3 8.0 24.2 23.1 - - - 6.8 Interest expense 24.9 24.9 74.4 74.9 Other operating expenses 41.9 52.2 147.2 162.2 Total expenses 289.0 195.9 559.1 574.4 Income (loss) before income taxes 1,056.0 151.6 1,181.2 861.9 Provision (benefit) for income taxes 294.8 (13.0) 322.0 184.7 Net income (loss) 761.2 $ 164.6 $ 859.2 $ 677.2 $ Less after-tax adjustments: Realized gains (losses) on investments (12.6) (1.3) (13.5) 1.1 Non-credit impairment unrealized fair value gains (losses) on credit derivatives 800.1 (187.1) 508.8 84.3 Fair value gains (losses) on committed capital securities 1.6 (3.6) 2.3 3.8 Foreign exchange gains (losses) on revaluation of premiums receivable (15.5) 24.4 (2.5) (17.6) Effect of consolidating financial guaranty VIEs (50.7) 109.6 (66.8) 94.2 Operating income 38.3 $ 222.6 $ 430.9 $ 511.4 $ Weighted average shares outstanding Basic shares outstanding 183.2 183.7 183.7 184.0 Diluted shares outstanding 1 184.0 187.3 186.3 188.9 Shares outstanding at the end of period 182.2 183.7 Effect of refundings and accelerations, net Net earned premiums from refundings and accelerations 26.8 $ 21.2 $ 77.4 $ 52.0 $ Operating income effect 18.8 13.9 52.9 33.7 Operating income per diluted share effect 0.10 0.07 0.28 0.18 1. Note: Please refer to the explanation within the Non-GAAP Financial Measures. Assured Guaranty Ltd. Consolidated Statements of Operations (unaudited) (dollars and shares in millions, except per share amounts) 1. Non-GAAP diluted shares outstanding were 184.0 million and 187.5 million for the three months ended September 30, 2011 and 2010, respectively, and 186.3 million and 189.1 million for the nine months ended September 30, 2011 and September 30, 2010, respectively. Nine Months Ended September 30, Assured Guaranty Municipal Holdings Inc. ("AGMH") acquisition-related expenses September 30, Three Months Ended Page 2

 


GAAP Income Statement As Reported Less: Operating Income Adjustments Non-GAAP Operating Income Results GAAP Income Statement As Reported Less: Operating Income Adjustments Non-GAAP Operating Income Results Revenues: Net earned premiums 211.1 $ (19.4) $ (1) 230.5 $ 288.7 $ (12.8) $ (1) 301.5 $ Net investment income 93.5 (4.0) (1) 97.5 85.6 - 85.6 Net realized investment gains (losses) (11.1) (11.1) (2) - (2.4) (2.4) (2) - Net change in fair value of credit derivatives: Realized gains and other settlements 0.5 0.5 - 52.4 52.4 - Net unrealized gains (losses) 1,155.4 1,155.4 - (276.4) (276.4) - Credit derivative revenues - (41.4) 41.4 - (50.7) 50.7 Net change in fair value of credit derivatives 1,155.9 1,114.5 (3) 41.4 (224.0) (274.7) (3) 50.7 Fair value gain (loss) on committed capital securities 2.4 2.4 (4) - (5.5) (5.5) (4) - Net change in fair value of financial guaranty VIEs (99.2) (99.2) (1) - 171.3 171.3 (1) - Other income (7.6) (23.0) (5) 15.4 33.8 33.6 (5) 0.2 Total revenues 1,345.0 960.2 384.8 347.5 (90.5) 438.0 Expenses: Loss expense: Financial guaranty insurance 214.9 (37.9) (1) 252.8 110.8 (10.2) (1) 121.0 Credit derivatives - (0.9) (3) 0.9 - (15.4) (3) 15.4 Amortization of deferred acquisition costs 7.3 - 7.3 8.0 - 8.0 AGMH acquisition-related expenses - - - - - - Interest expense 24.9 - 24.9 24.9 - 24.9 Other operating expenses 41.9 - 41.9 52.2 - 52.2 Total expenses 289.0 (38.8) 327.8 195.9 (25.6) 221.5 Income (loss) before income taxes 1,056.0 999.0 57.0 151.6 (64.9) 216.5 Provision (benefit) for income taxes 294.8 276.1 (6) 18.7 (13.0) (6.9) (6) (6.1) Net income (loss) 761.2 $ 722.9 $ 38.3 $ 164.6 $ (58.0) $ 222.6 $ 1. Adjustments to eliminate the effects of consolidating financial guaranty VIEs. 2. Adjustments to eliminate realized gains (losses) on investments. 3. Adjustments to eliminate non-economic fair value gains (losses) on credit derivatives and reclassification to revenues and loss expense. 4. Adjustments to eliminate fair value gain (loss) on committed capital securities. 5. 6. Tax effect of the above adjustments. Note: Please refer to the explanation within the Non-GAAP Financial Measures. Adjustments to eliminate foreign exchange gains (losses) on revaluation of net premiums receivable, reclassification of termination fees on credit derivative contracts and net realized investment gains (losses) on trading portfolio. September 30, 2011 September 30, 2010 Assured Guaranty Ltd. Net Income (Loss) Reconciliation to Operating Income (in millions) Three Months Ended Three Months Ended Page 3

 


GAAP Income Statement As Reported Less: Operating Income Adjustments Non-GAAP Operating Income Results GAAP Income Statement As Reported Less: Operating Income Adjustments Non-GAAP Operating Income Results Revenues: Net earned premiums 695.1 $ (56.8) $ (1) 751.9 $ 900.4 $ (34.4) $ (1) 934.8 $ Net investment income 290.7 (4.7) (1) 295.4 260.8 - 260.8 Net realized investment gains (losses) (13.4) (13.4) (2) - (1.4) (1.4) (2) - Net change in fair value of credit derivatives: Realized gains and other settlements 25.1 25.1 - 117.5 117.5 - Net unrealized gains (losses) 829.8 829.8 - 10.8 10.8 - Credit derivative revenues - (150.8) 150.8 - (157.1) 157.1 Net change in fair value of credit derivatives 854.9 704.1 (3) 150.8 128.3 (28.8) (3) 157.1 Fair value gain (loss) on committed capital securities 3.5 3.5 (4) - 5.8 5.8 (4) - Net change in fair value of financial guaranty VIEs (153.9) (153.9) (1) - 135.0 135.0 (1) - Other income 63.4 19.8 (5) 43.6 7.4 (13.2) (5) 20.6 Total revenues 1,740.3 498.6 1,241.7 1,436.3 63.0 1,373.3 Expenses: Loss expense: Financial guaranty insurance 313.3 (105.5) (1) 418.8 307.4 (44.4) (1) 351.8 Credit derivatives - 7.5 (3) (7.5) - (119.9) (3) 119.9 Amortization of deferred acquisition costs 24.2 - 24.2 23.1 - 23.1 AGMH acquisition-related expenses - - - 6.8 - 6.8 Interest expense 74.4 - 74.4 74.9 - 74.9 Other operating expenses 147.2 - 147.2 162.2 - 162.2 Total expenses 559.1 (98.0) 657.1 574.4 (164.3) 738.7 Income (loss) before income taxes 1,181.2 596.6 584.6 861.9 227.3 634.6 Provision (benefit) for income taxes 322.0 168.3 (6) 153.7 184.7 61.5 (6) 123.2 Net income (loss) 859.2 $ 428.3 $ 430.9 $ 677.2 $ 165.8 $ 511.4 $ 1. Adjustments to eliminate the effects of consolidating financial guaranty VIEs. 2. Adjustments to eliminate realized gains (losses) on investments. 3. Adjustments to eliminate non-economic fair value gains (losses) on credit derivatives and reclassification to revenues and loss expense. 4. Adjustments to eliminate fair value gain (loss) on committed capital securities. 5. 6. Tax effect of the above adjustments. Note: Please refer to the explanation within the Non-GAAP Financial Measures. Adjustments to eliminate foreign exchange gains (losses) on revaluation of net premiums receivable, reclassification of termination fees on credit derivative contracts and net realized investment gains (losses) on trading portfolio. September 30, 2011 September 30, 2010 Assured Guaranty Ltd. Net Income (Loss) Reconciliation to Operating Income (in millions) Nine Months Ended Nine Months Ended Page 4

 


Assured Guaranty Ltd. Consolidated Balance Sheets (unaudited) September 30, December 31, 2011 2010 Assets: Investment portfolio: Fixed maturity securities, available-for-sale, at fair value 10,091.2 $ 9,402.3 $ Short-term investments, at fair value 873.3 1,055.6 Other invested assets 298.0 283.0 Total investment portfolio 11,262.5 10,740.9 Cash 173.3 108.4 Premiums receivable, net of ceding commissions payable 987.1 1,167.6 Ceded unearned premium reserve 747.5 821.8 Deferred acquisition costs 231.0 239.8 Reinsurance recoverable on unpaid losses 48.0 22.3 Salvage and subrogation recoverable 360.2 1,032.4 Credit derivative assets 467.2 592.9 Deferred tax asset, net 676.2 1,259.1 Current income tax receivable 203.6 - Financial guaranty VIE assets, at fair value 3,005.4 3,657.5 Other assets 243.0 199.2 Total assets 18,405.0 $ 19,841.9 $ Liabilities and shareholders' equity: Liabilities: Unearned premium reserve 6,111.8 $ 6,972.9 $ Loss and loss adjustment expense reserve 670.7 574.4 Reinsurance balances payable, net 173.6 274.4 Long-term debt 1,041.7 1,052.9 Credit derivative liabilities 1,495.3 2,462.8 Current income tax payable - 93.0 Financial guaranty VIE liabilities with recourse, at fair value 2,575.6 3,030.9 Financial guaranty VIE liabilities without recourse, at fair value 1,133.0 1,337.2 Other liabilities 436.6 309.9 Total liabilities 13,638.3 16,108.4 Shareholders' equity: Common stock 1.8 1.8 Additional paid-in capital 2,567.6 2,585.4 Retained earnings 1,866.7 1,032.5 Accumulated other comprehensive income 327.1 111.8 Deferred equity compensation 3.5 2.0 Total shareholders' equity 4,766.7 3,733.5 Total liabilities and shareholders' equity 18,405.0 $ 19,841.9 $ As of : (in millions) Page 5

 


Total Per share Total Per share Reconciliation of shareholders' equity to adjusted book value: Shareholders' equity 4,766.7 $ 26.16 $ 3,733.5 $ 20.32 $ Less after-tax adjustments: Effect of consolidating financial guaranty VIEs (393.4) (2.16) (371.4) (2.02) Non-credit impairment unrealized fair value gains (losses) on credit derivatives (237.1) (1.30) (763.0) (4.15) Fair value gains (losses) on committed capital securities 14.5 0.08 12.2 0.07 Unrealized gain (loss) on investment portfolio excluding foreign exchange effect 271.2 1.49 101.2 0.55 Operating shareholders' equity 5,111.5 $ 28.05 $ 4,754.5 $ 25.88 $ After-tax adjustments: Less: Deferred acquisition costs 236.1 1.30 248.4 1.35 Plus: Net present value of estimated net future credit derivative revenue 331.4 1.82 424.8 2.31 Plus: Net unearned premium reserve on financial guaranty contracts in excess of expected loss to be expensed 3,698.1 20.30 4,058.0 22.08 Adjusted book value 8,904.9 $ 48.87 $ 8,988.9 $ 48.92 $ Note: Please refer to the explanation within the Non-GAAP Financial Measures. Assured Guaranty Ltd. Adjusted Book Value (dollars in millions, except per share amounts) September 30, 2011 December 31, 2010 As of : Page 6

 


Assured Guaranty Corp. Assured Guaranty Re Ltd. 1 Assured Guaranty Municipal Corp. Eliminations 2 Consolidated Claims paying resources Policyholders' surplus 1,112 $ 1,180 $ 1,301 $ (300) $ 3,293 $ Contingency reserve 606 - 1,804 - 2,410 Qualified statutory capital 1,718 1,180 3,105 (300) 5,703 Unearned premium reserve 835 1,027 2,207 - 4,069 Loss and loss adjustment expense reserves 3, 4 383 246 440 - 1,069 Total policyholders' surplus and reserves 2,936 2,453 5,752 (300) 10,841 Present value of installment premium 4 418 252 593 - 1,263 Standby line of credit/stop loss 200 200 498 - 898 Total claims paying resources 3,554 $ 2,905 $ 6,843 $ (300) $ 13,002 $ Net par outstanding 5 107,972 $ 132,464 $ 319,016 $ (1,658) $ 557,794 $ Net debt service outstanding 5 158,578 $ 214,767 $ 480,990 $ (3,795) $ 850,540 $ Ratios: Net par outstanding to qualified statutory capital 63:1 112:1 103:1 98:1 Capital ratio 6 92:1 182:1 155:1 149:1 Financial resources ratio 7 45:1 74:1 70:1 65:1 1. Assured Guaranty Re Ltd. ("AG Re") numbers are the Company's estimate of U.S. statutory. 2. 3. Reserves are reduced by approximately $1.6 billion for benefit related to representation and warranty recoverables. 4. Includes financial guaranty insurance and credit derivatives. 5. 6. The capital ratio is calculated by dividing net debt service outstanding by qualified statutory capital. 7. The financial resources ratio is calculated by dividing net debt service outstanding by total claims paying resources. Net par outstanding and net debt service outstanding are presented on a statutory basis. Under statutory accounting, such amounts would be reduced both when an outstanding issue is legally defeased (i.e., the rights and interests of bondholders and their lien on pledged revenues or other security are terminated in accordance with bond documentation) and when such issue is economically defeased (i.e., bond documentation does not provide a procedure for termination of such rights, interests and lien other than through payment of all outstanding debt in full; funds are deposited in an escrow account for future payment of the debt; and if the funds deposited prove insufficient to pay the outstanding debt in full, the issuer continues to be legally obligated to make payment on such debt). As of September 30, 2011 Assured Guaranty Ltd. Claims Paying Resources (dollars in millions) In 2009, Assured Guaranty Corp. ("AGC") issued a $300.0 million note payable to Assured Guaranty Municipal Corp. ("AGM"). Net par and net debt service outstanding eliminations represent second-to-pay policies between Assured Guaranty's insurance subsidiaries. Page 7

 


2011 2010 2011 2010 Consolidated new business production analysis: PVP Public finance - U.S.: Primary markets 33.7 $ 74.7 $ 96.4 $ 207.8 $ Secondary markets 5.9 9.8 22.0 32.4 Public finance - non-U.S. Primary markets - - - - Secondary markets - - - 0.7 Structured finance - U.S. 11.2 3.7 29.6 13.9 Structured finance - non-U.S. - 0.7 7.2 2.8 Total PVP 50.8 $ 88.9 $ 155.2 $ 257.6 $ Total PVP 50.8 $ 88.9 $ 155.2 $ 257.6 $ Less: PVP of credit derivatives - - - - PVP of financial guaranty insurance 50.8 88.9 155.2 257.6 Less: financial guaranty installment premium PVP 11.3 4.9 35.9 17.4 Total: financial guaranty upfront gross written premiums ("GWP") 39.5 84.0 119.3 240.2 Plus: financial guaranty installment GWP 1 (17.9) (6.4) (92.2) 21.2 Total GWP 21.6 $ 77.6 $ 27.1 $ 261.4 $ Consolidated financial guaranty gross par written: Public finance - U.S. Primary markets 4,078 $ 6,785 $ 9,256 $ 19,138 $ Secondary markets 264 441 953 1,103 Public finance - non-U.S. Primary markets - - - - Secondary markets - - - 34 Structured finance - U.S. 266 200 1,091 2,600 Structured finance - non-U.S. - - - - Total 4,608 $ 7,426 $ 11,300 $ 22,875 $ 1. Note: Please refer to the explanation within the Non-GAAP Financial Measures. Represents present value of new business on installment policies plus GWP adjustment on existing installment deals due to changes in assumptions and any cancellations of assumed reinsurance contracts. September 30, Three Months Ended Assured Guaranty Ltd. New Business Production (in millions) Nine Months Ended September 30, Page 8

 


Financial Guaranty Gross Par Written by Asset Type Sector: Gross Par Written Avg. Internal Rating Gross Par Written Avg. Internal Rating U.S. public finance: General obligation 2,377 $ A 5,783 $ A Municipal utilities 758 A- 1,507 A Tax backed 629 A+ 1,461 A Higher education 229 A- 527 A Transportation 158 A- 482 A- Healthcare 1 A+ 233 A Other public finance 190 A 216 A- Total U.S. public finance 4,342 A 10,209 A Non-U.S. public finance: Total non-U.S. public finance - - - - Total public finance 4,342 $ A 10,209 $ A U.S. structured finance: Consumer receivables - $ - 700 $ Super Senior Insurance securitizations - - 100 A+ Other structure finance 266 A- 291 A- Total U.S. structured finance 266 A- 1,091 AAA Non-U.S. structured finance: Total non-U.S. structured finance - - - - Total structured finance 266 $ A- 1,091 $ AAA Total gross par written 4,608 $ A 11,300 $ A Note: Please refer to the Glossary for a description of internal ratings and sectors. Three Months Ended September 30, 2011 Assured Guaranty Ltd. Financial Guaranty Gross Par Written (in millions) Nine Months Ended September 30, 2011 Page 9

 


Nine Months Nine Months 1Q-10 2Q-10 3Q-10 4Q-10 1Q-11 2Q-11 3Q-11 2010 2011 PVP: Public finance - U.S. Primary markets 60.4 $ 72.7 $ 74.7 $ 77.8 $ 26.7 $ 36.0 $ 33.7 $ 207.8 $ 96.4 $ Secondary markets 13.9 8.7 9.8 10.1 7.3 8.8 5.9 32.4 22.0 Public finance - non-U.S. Primary markets - - - - - - - - - Secondary markets - 0.7 - - - - - 0.7 - Structured finance - U.S. 4.5 5.7 3.7 16.3 11.3 7.1 11.2 13.9 29.6 Structured finance - non-U.S. - 2.1 0.7 0.9 7.2 - - 2.8 7.2 Total PVP 78.8 $ 89.9 $ 88.9 $ 105.1 $ 52.5 $ 51.9 $ 50.8 $ 257.6 $ 155.2 $ Total PVP 78.8 $ 89.9 $ 88.9 $ 105.1 $ 52.5 $ 51.9 $ 50.8 $ 257.6 $ 155.2 $ Less: PVP of credit derivatives - - - - - - - - PVP of financial guaranty insurance 78.8 89.9 88.9 105.1 52.5 51.9 50.8 257.6 155.2 Less: financial guaranty installment premium PVP 4.5 8.0 4.9 15.8 18.7 5.9 11.3 17.4 35.9 Total: financial guaranty upfront GWP 74.3 81.9 84.0 89.3 33.8 46.0 39.5 240.2 119.3 Plus: financial guaranty installment GWP 1 17.8 9.8 (6.4) (128.4) (45.3) (29.0) (17.9) 21.2 (92.2) Total financial guaranty GWP 92.1 91.7 77.6 (39.1) (11.5) 17.0 21.6 261.4 27.1 Plus: other GWP - - - - - - - - - Total GWP 92.1 $ 91.7 $ 77.6 $ (39.1) $ (11.5) $ 17.0 $ 21.6 $ 261.4 $ 27.1 $ Consolidated financial guaranty gross par written2: Public finance - U.S. Primary markets 5,816 $ 6,537 $ 6,785 $ 7,057 $ 1,886 $ 3,292 $ 4,078 $ 19,138 $ 9,256 $ Secondary markets 372 290 441 464 333 356 264 1,103 953 Public finance - non-U.S. Primary markets - - - - - - - - - Secondary markets - 34 - - - - - 34 - Structured finance - U.S. 1,000 1,400 200 363 100 725 266 2,600 1,091 Structured finance - non-U.S. - - - - - - - - - Total 7,188 $ 8,261 $ 7,426 $ 7,884 $ 2,319 $ 4,373 $ 4,608 $ 22,875 $ 11,300 $ 1. 2. Includes committed amount including undrawn revolvers. Note: Please refer to the explanation within the Non-GAAP Financial Measures. Represents present value of new business on installment policies plus GWP adjustment on existing installment deals due to changes in assumptions and any cancellations of assumed reinsurance contracts. Assured Guaranty Ltd. New Business Production by Quarter (in millions) Page 10

 


Pre-Tax After-Tax Annualized Amortized Book Book Fair Investment Cost Yield Yield Value Income1 Investment portfolio, available-for-sale: Fixed maturity securities: U.S. Treasury securities and obligations of U.S. government agencies 483.2 $ 2.77% 2.12% 514.1 $ 13.4 $ Agency obligations 379.5 3.75% 3.08% 422.3 14.2 Foreign government securities 331.0 3.10% 2.02% 336.6 10.3 Obligations of states and political subdivisions 3,382.7 4.03% 3.81% 3,583.2 136.5 Insured obligations of state and political subdivisions 2 1,684.1 4.75% 4.50% 1,785.3 80.0 Corporate securities 1,064.7 3.55% 2.94% 1,110.7 37.8 Mortgage-backed securities ("MBS") 3: Residential MBS ("RMBS") 4 1,481.5 5.56% 4.44% 1,398.7 82.3 Commercial MBS ("CMBS") 490.8 4.15% 3.50% 508.4 20.4 Asset-backed securities 5 492.5 5.19% 3.74% 501.1 25.6 Total fixed maturity securities 9,790.0 4.29% 3.74% 10,160.4 420.4 Short-term investments 832.5 0.04% 0.03% 832.5 0.3 Cash6 173.3 - - 173.3 - Total 10,795.8 $ 3.96% 3.45% 11,166.2 $ 420.7 $ Less: financial guaranty VIEs 99.0 11.17% 7.26% 28.4 11.1 Total 10,696.8 $ 3.85% 3.38% 11,137.8 $ 409.7 $ Fair Ratings 7: Value % of Portfolio U.S. Treasury securities and obligations of U.S. government agencies 514.1 $ 5.1% Agency obligations 422.3 4.2% AAA/Aaa 1,940.9 19.1% AA/Aa 5,324.9 52.4% A/A 1,522.1 15.0% BBB 15.1 0.1% Below investment grade ("BIG") 8 224.7 2.2% Not rated 8 196.3 1.9% Total fixed maturity securities available-for-sale 10,160.4 $ 100.0% Less: financial guaranty VIEs 69.2 Total fixed maturity securities available-for-sale 10,091.2 $ Duration of available-for-sale investment portfolio (in years): 4.7 Average ratings of available-for-sale investment portfolio AA 1.Represents annualized investment income based on amortized cost and pre-tax book yields. 2. 3. Contains no U.S. subprime RMBS. 4. Includes investments purchased for loss mitigation purposes. 5. Contains no collateralized debt obligations ("CDOs") of asset-backed securities ("ABS"). 6. 7. 8. Included in the investment portfolio are securities purchased or obtained as part of loss mitigation or other risk management strategies of $1,338.5 million in par with carrying value of $411.1 million. As of September 30, 2011 Assured Guaranty Ltd. (dollars in millions) Reflects obligations of state and local political subdivisions that have been insured by other financial guarantors. The underlying ratings of these bonds, after giving effect to the lower of the rating assigned by Standard & Poor's Ratings Services ("S&P") or Moody's Investors Service, Inc. ("Moody's") average AA-. Includes $327.0 million insured by AGC and AGM. Ratings are represented by the lower of the Moody's and S&P classifications except for bonds purchased for loss mitigation or risk management strategies which use internal ratings classifications. Available-for-Sale Investment Portfolio and Cash Represents operating cash and is not included in yield calculations. Page 11

 


Estimated Future Estimated Net Ending Net Expected PV Future Net Credit Debt Service Debt Service Net Earned Accretion of Premiums Derivative Amortization Outstanding Premiums 3 Discount Earned Revenues 4 Total 2011 (as of September 30) 865,692 $ 2011 (October 1 - December 31) 17,346 $ 848,346 167.2 $ 7.1 $ 174.3 $ 36.4 $ 210.7 $ 2012 67,074 781,272 579.8 26.7 606.5 128.1 734.6 2013 59,892 721,380 483.0 24.6 507.6 100.2 607.8 2014 63,431 657,949 425.4 22.8 448.2 71.4 519.6 2015 52,308 605,641 376.0 21.0 397.0 49.2 446.2 2011-2015 260,051 605,641 2,031.4 102.2 2,133.6 385.3 2,518.9 2016-2020 196,218 409,423 1,406.1 83.8 1,489.9 127.3 1,617.2 2021-2025 155,255 254,168 882.4 56.2 938.6 62.5 1,001.1 2026-2030 108,371 145,797 538.3 35.7 574.0 44.1 618.1 After 2030 145,797 - 579.5 31.0 610.5 51.2 661.7 Total 865,692 $ 5,437.7 $ 308.9 $ 5,746.6 $ 670.4 $ 6,417.0 $ 1. 2. See page 14 for ‘‘Present Value of Financial Guaranty Insurance Net Expected Loss to be Expensed.’’ 3. Excludes $423.7 million in expected present value of net earned premiums related to VIEs. 4. Excludes contracts with credit impairment. Assured Guaranty Ltd. Estimated Net Exposure Amortization 1 and Estimated Future Net Premium and Credit Derivative Revenues (in millions) Represents the future expected amortization of current debt service outstanding (principal and interest), assuming no advance refundings, as of September 30, 2011. Actual amortization differs from expected maturities because borrowers may have the right to call or prepay guaranteed obligations and because of management's assumptions on structured finance amortization. Financial Guaranty Insurance 2 Page 12

 


Structured Finance U.S. and Other Estimated Non-U.S. Pooled U.S. Financial Structured Ending Net Par Corporate RMBS Products 1 Finance Total Outstanding 2011 (as of September 30) 124,393 $ 2011 (October 1 - December 31) 2,929 $ 1,381 $ 60 $ 1,526 $ 5,896 $ 118,497 2012 12,104 4,464 1,059 3,946 21,573 96,924 2013 12,413 3,242 823 1,717 18,195 78,729 2014 18,746 2,281 630 1,837 23,494 55,235 2015 9,144 1,921 341 3,257 14,663 40,572 2011-2015 55,336 13,289 2,913 12,283 83,821 40,572 2016-2020 13,550 5,318 466 3,506 22,840 17,732 2021-2025 2,373 2,220 602 1,863 7,058 10,674 2026-2030 435 805 570 499 2,309 8,365 After 2030 3,242 832 1,258 3,033 8,365 - Total structured finance 74,936 $ 22,464 $ 5,809 $ 21,184 $ 124,393 $ Public Finance Estimated Estimated Net Par Ending Net Par Amortization Outstanding 2011 (as of September 30) 447,332 $ 2011 (October 1 - December 31) 5,358 $ 441,974 2012 22,637 419,337 2013 20,243 399,094 2014 19,853 379,241 2015 18,807 360,434 2011-2015 86,898 360,434 2016-2020 94,651 265,783 2021-2025 92,736 173,047 2026-2030 71,137 101,910 After 2030 101,910 - Total public finance 447,332 $ Net par outstanding (end of period): 1Q-10 2Q-10 3Q-10 4Q-10 1Q-11 2Q-11 3Q-11 Public finance - U.S. 430,112 $ 429,874 $ 426,584 $ 426,996 $ 417,367 $ 413,274 $ 408,065 $ Public finance - non-U.S. 41,406 39,573 42,125 40,743 41,828 41,226 39,267 Structured finance - U.S. 133,544 125,955 125,679 118,756 113,108 103,978 97,969 Structured finance - non-U.S. 34,403 32,112 33,684 30,636 29,984 28,718 26,424 Total 639,465 $ 627,514 $ 628,072 $ 617,131 $ 602,287 $ 587,196 $ 571,725 $ 1. See Glossary for description of financial products. Assured Guaranty Ltd. Expected Amortization of Net Par Outstanding (in millions) Estimated Net Par Amortization Page 13

 


Operating 2 GAAP 2 2011 (October 1 - December 31) 48.7 $ 40.7 $ 2012 133.5 108.5 2013 86.1 65.7 2014 67.6 49.5 2015 54.6 38.0 2011-2015 390.5 302.4 2016-2020 202.1 144.7 2021-2025 97.3 70.2 2026-2030 69.0 39.2 After 2030 64.6 27.0 Total expected PV of net expected loss to be expensed 823.5 583.5 Discount 380.0 353.8 Total future value 1,203.5 $ 937.3 $ 1. 2. Assured Guaranty Ltd. Present Value ("PV") of Financial Guaranty Insurance Net Expected Loss to be Expensed As of September 30, 2011 (in millions) Operating income includes net expected loss to be expensed on consolidated VIEs. Losses on consolidated VIEs are eliminated for GAAP. Net Expected Loss to be Expensed 1 The expected present value of net loss to be expensed is discounted by weighted-average risk free rates ranging from 0% to 3.85%. Page 14

 


Net Par Outstanding and Average Rating by Asset Type Net Par Outstanding Avg. Internal Rating Net Par Outstanding Avg. Internal Rating U.S. public finance: General obligation 174,385 $ A+ 181,799 $ A+ Tax backed 79,615 A+ 83,403 A+ Municipal utilities 66,677 A- 70,066 A- Transportation 35,543 A- 36,973 A- Healthcare 19,740 A- 21,592 A- Higher education 15,613 A+ 15,687 A+ Housing 5,996 AA- 6,562 AA- Infrastructure finance 4,194 BBB- 4,092 BBB+ Investor-owned utilities 1,178 A- 1,505 A- Other public finance 5,124 A- 5,317 A- Total U.S. public finance 408,065 A+ 426,996 A+ Non-U.S. public finance: Infrastructure finance 15,113 BBB- 15,973 BBB- Regulated utilities 13,259 BBB+ 13,978 BBB+ Pooled infrastructure 3,387 AA- 3,432 AA- Other public finance 7,508 A+ 7,360 AA- Total non-U.S. public finance 39,267 A- 40,743 A- Total public finance 447,332 $ A- 467,739 $ A- U.S. structured finance: Pooled corporate obligations 54,820 $ AAA- 67,384 $ AAA- RMBS 22,464 BB- 25,130 BB- Financial products 5,809 AA- 6,831 AAC MBS and other commercial real estate related exposures 4,835 AAA- 7,084 AAA- Consumer receivables 4,745 A+ 6,073 AA Commercial receivables 1,852 BBB+ 2,139 BBB+ Insurance securitizations 1,643 A+ 1,584 A+ Structured credit 434 B- 1,729 BBB Other structured finance 1,367 A- 802 A Total U.S. structured finance 97,969 AA- 118,756 AA Non- U.S. structured finance: Pooled corporate obligations 20,116 AAA 22,610 AAA RMBS 2,406 AA 3,394 AA+ Commercial receivables 1,316 BBB+ 1,729 A Structured credit 1,061 BBB 1,267 BBB Insurance securitizations 964 CCC- 964 CCC CMBS and other commercial real estate related exposures 183 AAA 251 AAA Other structured finance 378 Super Senior 421 Super Senior Total non-U.S. structured finance 26,424 AA+ 30,636 AA+ Total structured finance 124,393 $ AA- 149,392 $ AA Total net par outstanding 571,725 $ A+ 617,131 $ A+ December 31, 2010 Note: Please refer to the Glossary for an explanation of net par outstanding, internal ratings and sectors. Assured Guaranty Ltd. Financial Guaranty Profile (1 of 3) (in millions) September 30, 2011 Page 15

 


Distribution by Ratings of Financial Guaranty Portfolio Ratings: Net Par Outstanding % Net Par Outstanding % Net Par Outstanding % Net Par Outstanding % Net Par Outstanding % Super senior - $ 0.0% 1,386 $ 3.5% 17,544 $ 17.9% 6,664 $ 25.2% 25,594 $ 4.5% AAA 5,073 1.2% 1,383 3.5% 37,544 38.3% 12,159 46.0% 56,159 9.8% AA 149,190 36.6% 1,094 2.8% 12,532 12.8% 1,255 4.7% 164,071 28.7% A 208,837 51.2% 12,022 30.6% 5,086 5.2% 926 3.5% 226,871 39.7% BBB 41,700 10.2% 21,231 54.1% 5,283 5.4% 3,589 13.7% 71,803 12.5% BIG 3,265 0.8% 2,151 5.5% 19,980 20.4% 1,831 6.9% 27,227 4.8% Total net par outstanding 408,065 $ 100.0% 39,267 $ 100.0% 97,969 $ 100.0% 26,424 $ 100.0% 571,725 $ 100.0% Note: Please refer to the Glossary for an explanation of net par outstanding, internal ratings and sectors. Assured Guaranty Ltd. Financial Guaranty Profile (2 of 3) As of September 30, 2011 Structured Finance - Non-U.S. Consolidated Structured Finance - U.S. Public Finance - U.S. Public Finance - Non-U.S. (dollars in millions) Page 16

 


Geographic Distribution of Financial Guaranty Portfolio U.S.: Net Par Public finance: Outstanding % of Total California 58,411 $ 10.2% New York 33,443 5.9% Pennsylvania 30,548 5.3% Texas 29,869 5.3% Illinois 25,983 4.5% Florida 25,946 4.5% New Jersey 17,227 3.0% Michigan 16,173 2.8% Massachusetts 11,616 2.0% Other states 158,849 27.9% Total public finance 408,065 71.4% Structured finance (multiple states) 97,969 17.1% Total U.S. 506,034 88.5% Non-U.S.: United Kingdom 24,963 4.4% Australia 8,163 1.4% Canada 4,129 0.7% France 2,563 0.4% Italy 2,209 0.4% Other 23,664 4.2% Total non-U.S. 65,691 11.5% Total net par outstanding 571,725 $ 100.0% Exposure to the Troubled Eurozone Countries Net Par Internal Outstanding Rating Italy 2,209 $ A-Spain 547 A Greece 291 B Portugal 156 BBB Ireland 41 BBB Total 3,244 $ A-Assured Guaranty Ltd. Financial Guaranty Profile (3 of 3) (dollars in millions) As of September 30, 2011 Page 17

 


Distribution of Direct Pooled Corporate Obligations by Ratings Ratings: Net Par Outstanding % of Total Avg. Initial Credit Enhancement Avg. Current Credit Enhancement Super Senior 19,160 $ 26.1% 31.7% 30.8% AAA 44,487 60.5% 29.4% 27.8% AA 2,664 3.6% 41.7% 37.9% A 503 0.7% 45.9% 40.3% BBB 2,662 3.6% 35.4% 29.3% BIG 4,043 5.5% 38.5% 19.2% Total exposures 73,519 $ 100.0% 31.3% 28.6% Distribution of Direct Pooled Corporate Obligations by Asset Class Asset class: Net Par Outstanding % of Total Avg. Initial Credit Enhancement Avg. Current Credit Enhancement Avg. Rating CBOs/CLOs 42,204 $ 57.4% 31.7% 31.5% AAA Synthetic investment grade pooled corporates 13,379 18.2% 19.8% 18.4% AAA Synthetic high yield pooled corporates 5,094 6.9% 42.1% 36.0% AAA Market value CDOs of corporates 5,479 7.5% 34.1% 24.6% AAA Trust preferred 1 Banks and insurance 3,279 4.5% 46.7% 33.1% BBB U.S. mortgage and real estate investment trusts 2,279 3.1% 50.0% 32.6% BB European mortgage and real estate investment trusts 907 1.2% 36.7% 34.1% BBB Other pooled corporates 898 1.2% 25.2% 5.1% BBB Total exposures 73,519 $ 100.0% 31.3% 28.6% AAA 1. Note: Please refer to the Glossary for an explanation of internal ratings, performance indicators and sectors. Prior to fourth quarter 2010, the ratio of average current credit enhancement for Trust Preferred Pooled Corporate Obligations was based on the value of the collateral as reported by the trustees, which for non-performing or low-rated collateral varied by transaction in accordance with the individual transaction documents. Beginning fourth quarter 2010, Assured Guaranty has made the measure consistent across transactions, assigning a value of 100% of the par to all performing securities, applying a standard haircut for restructured performing collateral, assigning recovery assumptions for defaulted collateral by collateral type, and making additional negative adjustments for transactions where the notional amount of interest rate hedges materially exceeds the amount of performing collateral requiring hedges. Assured Guaranty Ltd. Direct Pooled Corporate Obligations Profile (dollars in millions) As of September 30, 2011 Page 18 - - -

 


Distribution of U.S. RMBS by Rating and Type of Exposure Ratings: Prime First Lien Closed End Seconds HELOC Alt-A First Lien Option ARMs Subprime First Lien Net Interest Margin Total Net Par Outstanding AAA 7 $ 0 $ 382 $ 67 $ - $ 1,989 $ - $ 2,445 $ AA 22 26 227 274 25 1,981 - 2,554 A 2 1 22 3 10 865 - 902 BBB 126 - 12 355 205 598 - 1,296 BIG 603 1,035 3,430 4,842 2,387 2,924 46 15,267 Total exposures 760 $ 1,061 $ 4,072 $ 5,541 $ 2,627 $ 8,357 $ 46 $ 22,464 $ Distribution of U.S. RMBS by Year Insured 1 and Type of Exposure Year insured: Prime First Lien Closed End Seconds HELOC Alt-A First Lien Option ARMs Subprime First Lien Net Interest Margin Total Net Par Outstanding 2004 and prior 46 $ 1 $ 303 $ 119 $ 45 $ 1,540 $ 0 $ 2,054 $ 2005 178 - 914 646 125 327 0 2,189 2006 126 448 1,224 436 619 3,546 0 6,398 2007 410 612 1,632 2,806 1,740 2,848 46 10,093 2008 - - - 1,534 98 98 - 1,730 Total exposures 760 $ 1,061 $ 4,072 $ 5,541 $ 2,627 $ 8,357 $ 46 $ 22,464 $ Distribution of U.S. RMBS by Rating and Year Insured AAA AA A BBB BIG Year insured: Rated Rated Rated Rated Rated Total 2004 and prior 1,333 $ 122 $ 46 $ 191 $ 364 $ 2,054 $ 2005 129 145 1 135 1,781 2,189 2006 695 1,756 818 315 2,815 6,398 2007 272 391 38 559 8,833 10,093 2008 17 140 - 98 1,475 1,730 Total exposures 2,445 $ 2,554 $ 902 $ 1,296 $ 15,267 $ 22,464 $ % of total 10.9% 11.4% 4.0% 5.8% 67.9% 100.0% 1. Assured Guaranty has not insured any U.S. RMBS transactions since 2008. Note: Please refer to the Glossary for a description of performance indicators and sectors. Assured Guaranty Ltd. Consolidated U.S. RMBS Profile (dollars in millions) As of September 30, 2011 Page 19

 


U.S. Prime First Lien Year insured: Net Par Outstanding Pool Factor Subordination Cumulative Losses 60+ Day Delinquencies Number of Transactions 2005 174 $ 43.2% 5.3% 1.3% 9.7% 6 2006 126 59.9% 8.4% 0.1% 17.3% 1 2007 410 54.4% 9.1% 3.5% 16.6% 1 2008 - - - - - - 710 $ 52.6% 8.1% 2.3% 15.0% 8 U.S. Closed End Seconds Year insured: Net Par Outstanding Pool Factor Subordination Cumulative Losses 60+ Day Delinquencies Number of Transactions 2005 - $ - - - - - 2006 437 16.3% - 59.8% 10.9% 2 2007 612 19.8% - 65.3% 10.5% 10 2008 - - - - - - 1,049 $ 18.3% - 63.0% 10.7% 12 U.S. HELOC Year insured: Net Par Outstanding Pool Factor Subordination Cumulative Losses 60+ Day Delinquencies Number of Transactions 2005 861 $ 18.3% 2.7% 14.6% 12.2% 6 2006 1,202 29.5% 2.2% 32.8% 9.9% 7 2007 1,632 44.6% 3.3% 28.7% 7.1% 9 2008 - - - - - - 3,695 $ 33.5% 2.8% 26.7% 9.2% 22 U.S. Alt-A First Lien Year insured: Net Par Outstanding Pool Factor Subordination Cumulative Losses 60+ Day Delinquencies Number of Transactions 2005 644 $ 35.9% 10.2% 5.6% 18.9% 21 2006 436 41.8% 0.0% 16.6% 37.2% 7 2007 2,806 53.3% 5.2% 11.9% 33.1% 12 2008 1,534 49.7% 23.4% 11.8% 30.3% 5 5,420 $ 49.3% 10.5% 11.5% 31.0% 45 Assured Guaranty Ltd. Direct U.S. RMBS Profile (1 of 2) (dollars in millions) Distribution of Direct U.S. RMBS Insured January 1, 2005 or Later by Exposure Type, Average Pool Factor, Subordination, Cumulative Losses and 60+ Day Delinquencies Note: Please refer to the Glossary for a description of performance indicators and sectors. As of September 30, 2011 Page 20

 


U.S. Option ARMs Year insured: Net Par Outstanding Pool Factor Subordination Cumulative Losses 60+ Day Delinquencies Number of Transactions 2005 116 $ 25.8% 7.6% 9.2% 37.2% 4 2006 613 49.5% 2.8% 13.6% 53.7% 7 2007 1,740 53.4% 3.9% 14.9% 41.0% 11 2008 98 56.5% 49.1% 10.2% 38.8% 1 2,566 $ 51.4% 5.5% 14.1% 43.8% 23 U.S. Subprime First Lien Year insured: Net Par Outstanding Pool Factor Subordination Cumulative Losses 60+ Day Delinquencies Number of Transactions 2005 316 $ 35.4% 43.8% 6.0% 38.2% 6 2006 3,539 23.1% 61.7% 15.7% 37.6% 4 2007 2,848 54.2% 23.6% 17.0% 47.1% 13 2008 81 66.4% 28.9% 11.5% 28.1% 1 6,783 $ 37.2% 44.5% 15.7% 41.5% 24 Assured Guaranty Ltd. Direct U.S. RMBS Profile (2 of 2) (dollars in millions) Distribution of Direct U.S. RMBS Insured January 1, 2005 or Later by Exposure Type, Average Pool Factor, Subordination, Cumulative Losses and 60+ Day Delinquencies Note: Please refer to the Glossary for a description of performance indicators and sectors. As of September 30, 2011 Page 21

 


U.S. CMBS Rating: Net Par Outstanding Pool Factor Subordination Cumulative Losses 60+ Day Delinquencies Number of Transactions Super senior 3,216 $ 81.7% 36.5% 1.3% 7.8% 148 AAA 206 76.4% 26.9% 1.2% 11.2% 11 AA - - - - - - A 169 49.5% 15.4% 1.4% 6.5% 1 BBB - - - - - - BIG - - - - - - Total exposures 3,591 $ 79.9% 34.9% 1.3% 8.0% 160 CDOs of U.S. Commercial Real Estate and CMBS1 Net Par Outstanding % of Total Avg. Initial Credit Enhancement Avg. Current Credit Enhancement CDOs of commercial real estate 664 $ 77.0% 49.8% 51.8% CDOs of CMBS2 198 23.0% 31.9% 59.8% Total exposures 862 $ 100.0% 45.7% 53.6% 1. Represents other U.S. Commercial Real Estate not included in the table above. 2. Relates to vintages 2003 and prior. Note: Please refer to the Glossary for a description of performance indicators and sectors. Assured Guaranty Ltd. Direct U.S. Commercial Real Estate Profile (dollars in millions) Distribution of Direct U.S. CMBS Insured January 1, 2005 or Later by Exposure Type, Internal Rating, Average Pool Factor, Subordination, Cumulative Losses and 60+ Day Delinquencies As of September 30, 2011 Page 22

 


Distribution of Direct U.S. Consumer Receivables by Rating Rating: Credit Cards Student Loans Manufactured Housing Auto Total Net Par Outstanding Super senior 400 $ - $ - $ 700 $ 1,100 $ AAA - 392 - - 392 AA - - 69 960 1,029 A - - - 83 83 BBB - 869 42 - 911 BIG - - 149 - 149 Total exposures 400 $ 1,261 $ 260 $ 1,743 $ 3,664 $ Average rating Super Senior A BB+ AAA AA Avg. initial credit enhancement 62.2% 7.2% 27.5% 32.1% 26.5% Avg. current credit enhancement 62.2% 9.4% 25.5% 47.8% 34.6% Note: Please refer to the Glossary for an explanation of net par outstanding, internal ratings and sectors. Assured Guaranty Ltd. Direct U.S. Consumer Receivables Profile (dollars in millions) As of September 30, 2011 Page 23

 


BIG Exposures by Asset Exposure Type September 30, 2011 December 31, 2010 U.S. public finance: General obligation 754 $ 882 $ Municipal utilities 663 541 Tax backed 460 430 Infrastructure finance 249 61 Transportation 243 162 Healthcare 135 333 Higher education 20 21 Housing - 8 Other public finance 741 721 Total U.S. public finance 3,265 3,159 Non-U.S. public finance: Infrastructure finance 1,735 1,506 Regulated utilities 9 289 Other public finance 407 - Total non-U.S. public finance 2,151 1,795 Total public finance 5,416 $ 4,954 $ U.S. structured finance: RMBS 15,267 $ 16,355 $ Pooled corporate obligations 3,455 2,976 Consumer receivables 474 425 Structured credit 371 399 Commercial receivables 252 240 Other structured finance 161 163 Total U.S. structured finance 19,980 20,558 Non-U.S. structured finance: Insurance securitizations 923 923 Pooled corporate obligations 892 355 Commercial receivables 16 16 Total non-U.S. structured finance 1,831 1,294 Total structured finance 21,811 $ 21,852 $ Total BIG net par outstanding 27,227 $ 26,806 $ 1. Assured Guaranty Ltd. Below Investment Grade Exposures (1 of 5) (in millions) Securities purchased for loss mitigation purposes represented $1,093.1 million and $489.3 million of gross par outstanding as of September 30, 2011 and December 31, 2010, respectively. In addition, under the terms of certain credit derivative contracts, the Company has obtained the underlying collateral of transactions and recorded it in invested assets in the consolidated balance sheets. Such amounts totaled $245.4 million and $251.8 million in gross par outstanding as of September 30, 2011 and December 31, 2010, respectively. Note: Please refer to the Glossary for an explanation of net par outstanding, internal ratings and sectors. BIG Net Par Outstanding 1 Page 24

 


Net Par Outstanding by BIG Category 1 September 30, 2011 2 December 31, 2010 2 Category 1 U.S. public finance $ 2,064 $ 1,958 Non-U.S. public finance 2,151 1,794 U.S. structured finance 5,513 4,646 Non-U.S. structured finance 831 293 Total Category 1 10,559 8,691 Category 2 U.S. public finance 339 282 Non-U.S. public finance - 1 U.S. structured finance 6,749 8,889 Non-U.S. structured finance 1 2 Total Category 2 7,089 9,174 Category 3 U.S. public finance 862 919 Non-U.S. public finance - - U.S. structured finance 7,718 7,023 Non-U.S. structured finance 999 999 Total Category 3 9,579 8,941 BIG Total $ 27,227 $ 26,806 1. 2. Securities purchased for loss mitigation purposes represented $1,093.1 million and $489.3 million of gross par outstanding as of September 30, 2011 and December 31, 2010, respectively. In addition, under the terms of certain credit derivative contracts, the Company has obtained the underlying collateral of transactions and recorded it in invested assets in the consolidated balance sheets. Such amounts totaled $245.4 million and $251.8 million in gross par outstanding as of September 30, 2011 and December 31, 2010, respectively. Assured Guaranty Ltd. Below Investment Grade Exposures (2 of 5) (in millions) Assured Guaranty's surveillance department is responsible for monitoring our portfolio of credits and maintains a list of BIG credits. During the fourth quarter of 2010 the Company revised the definitions of the three BIG surveillance categories to more closely track its view of whether a transaction is expected to experience a loss, without regard to whether the probability weighted expected loss exceeded the unearned premium reserve. While the revisions resulted in a number of transactions moving between BIG categories, the Company estimates that the revisions had a relatively small impact on the totals in each category. BIG Category 1: Below investment grade transactions showing sufficient deterioration to make lifetime losses possible, but for which none are currently expected. Transactions on which claims have been paid but are expected to be fully reimbursed (other than investment grade transactions on which only liquidity claims have been paid) are in this category. BIG Category 2: Below investment grade transactions for which lifetime losses are expected but for which no claims (other than liquidity claims) have yet been paid. BIG Category 3: Below investment grade transactions for which lifetime losses are expected and on which claims (other than liquidity claims) have been paid. Transactions remain in this category when claims have been paid and only a recoverable remains. Financial Guaranty Insurance and Credit Derivatives Surveillance Categories Page 25

 


Public Finance BIG Exposures Greater Than $50 Million Net Par Internal Name or description Outstanding Rating U.S. public finance: Jefferson County Alabama Sewer 496 $ D Detroit (City of) Michigan 385 BB San Joaquin Hills California Transportation 243 BB GMAC Military Housing Trust XVIII (Hickam Air Force Base Project Certificates 2007A) 216 BB Jefferson County Alabama School Sales Tax Limited Obligation 176 BB Guaranteed Student Loan Transaction 158 B Detroit (City of) School District Michigan 152 BB Guaranteed Student Loan Transaction 136 CCC Vermont Student Assistance Corporation Guaranteed Student Loans Series 1993 F-J 136 B Orlando Tourist Development Tax - Florida 118 BB+ Harrisburg (City of) Pennsylvania General Obligation 97 B-Puerto Rico Public Finance Corporation - Commonwealth Appropriation 87 BB+ Xenia Rural Water District, Iowa 82 B Guaranteed Student Loan Transaction 73 B Mashantucket Pequot Tribe, Connecticut 61 B Bessemer City, Alabama - Water Revenue 59 BB+ Guaranteed Student Loan Transaction 58 B Total 2,733 $ Non-U.S. public finance: Reliance Rail Finance Pty. Limited 646 $ BB M6 Duna Autopalya Koncesszios Zartkoruen Mukodo Reszvenytarsasag 428 BB+ Hellenic Republic 291 B Cross City Tunnel Motorway Finance Limited 289 BB Aeroporti Di Roma (ADR) Romulus Finance S.R.L. (Rome Airport) 252 BB Alte Liebe I Limited (Wind Farm) 96 BB Metropolitano de Porto Lease and Sublease of Railroad Equipment 56 BB+ Total 2,058 $ Total 4,791 $ Assured Guaranty Ltd. Below Investment Grade Exposures (3 of 5) As of September 30, 2011 (dollars in millions) Note: Please refer to the Glossary for an explanation of net par outstanding, internal ratings and sectors. Page 26

 


Structured Finance BIG Exposures Greater Than $50 Million Net Par Internal Current Credit 60+ Day Name or description Outstanding Rating Enhancement Delinquencies U.S. structured finance: U.S. RMBS: Deutsche Alt-A Securities Mortgage Loan 2007-2 807 $ CCC 0.0% 30.8% MABS 2007-NCW 562 B 30.6% 63.7% Countrywide HELOC 2006-I 452 CCC 0.0% 7.0% MASTR 2007-3 (NEGAM) 418 CCC 0.0% 53.4% Private Residential Mortgage Transaction 417 B 17.1% 30.9% Private Residential Mortgage Transaction 414 BB 20.4% 29.2% Mortgage IT Securities Corp. Mortgage Loan 2007-2 410 B 9.1% 16.6% Countrywide HELOC 2006-F (includes $98.7 million repurchased, 32% owned)1 378 CCC 0.0% 18.1% Option One 2007-FXD2 374 CCC 15.7% 31.9% Private Residential Mortgage Transaction 373 CCC 19.3% 31.7% Deutsche Alt-A Securities Mortgage Loan 2007-3 372 B 4.1% 23.4% Private Residential Mortgage Transaction 354 BB 18.6% 27.2% Private Residential Mortgage Transaction 336 CCC 9.5% 34.7% CWALT Alternative Loan Trust 2007-HY9 336 B 4.5% 46.3% Nomura Asset Accept. Corp. 2007-1 (includes $0.8 million repurchased, 1% owned)¹ 329 CCC 0.0% 38.4% AAA Trust 2007-2 302 CCC 27.6% 43.8% Harborview 2006-12 296 CCC 6.1% 59.8% Countrywide Home Equity Loan Trust 2005-J 284 CCC 0.0% 17.3% Countrywide Home Equity Loan Trust 2007-D 283 CCC 0.0% 8.4% Countrywide HELOC 2005-D 270 CCC 0.0% 12.7% Countrywide 2007-13 261 BB 30.4% 56.0% Terwin Mortgage Trust 2006-12SL (includes $256.3 million repurchased, 100% owned)¹ 248 B N/A 11.6% Countrywide HELOC 2007-A (includes $21.7 million repurchased, 8% owned)¹ 236 CCC 0.0% 7.1% CWABS 2007-4 219 B 20.2% 44.6% GMACM 2004-HE3 213 B 0.0% 0.0% Countrywide HELOC 2007-B 210 CCC 0.0% 5.1% Private Residential Mortgage Transaction 208 BB 27.4% 34.7% Terwin Mortgage Trust 2007-1SL (includes $196.5 million repurchased, 95% owned)¹ 203 B N/A 10.6% MARM 2007-1 (FKA MASTR 2007-OA1) (includes $1.1 million repurchased, 1% owned)¹ 201 CCC 0.0% 34.2% Terwin Mortgage Trust 2006-10SL (includes $95.5 repurchased, 50% owned)¹ 190 CCC N/A 10.0% Soundview 2007-WMC1 189 CCC 6.0% 69.3% FHABS 2007-HE1 HELOC 183 BB 0.0% 4.4% Indymac 2007-H1 HELOC 171 CCC 0.0% 8.5% Harborview 2007-1 171 CCC 8.9% 58.9% FHABS 2006-HE2 HELOC 160 BB 0.0% 4.6% New Century 2005-A 159 B 20.2% 32.5% Renaissance (DELTA) 2007-3 (includes $62.5 million repurchased, 94% owned)¹ 147 B 18.8% 34.2% Harborview 2006-1 143 CCC 0.0% 63.0% CSAB 2006-3 131 CCC 0.0% 43.8% Countrywide HELOC 2005-C 128 CCC 0.0% 11.5% CWALT 2007-OA10 (includes $39.9 million repurchased, 53% owned)¹ 123 CCC 10.0% 52.2% Lehman Excess Trust 2007-16N 115 CCC 5.1% 45.3% Taylor Bean & Whitaker 2007-2 (includes $28.3 million repurchased, 53% owned)¹ 100 CCC 0.0% 25.8% Flagstar HELOC 2005-1 94 BB 21.8% 3.5% Flagstar HELOC 2006-2 92 CCC 24.1% 4.2% ACE Home Equity Loan Trust 2007-SL3 86 BB 0.0% 7.8% Deutsche Alt-B 2006-AB1 85 CCC 0.0% 27.6% CSAB 2006-2 (includes $11.2 million repurchased, 30% owned)¹ 85 CCC 0.0% 38.2% American Home Mortgage Assets Trust 2007-4 85 CCC 0.0% 35.7% Soundview Home Loan Trust 2008-1 81 B 28.9% 28.1% MASTR Asset Backed Securities Trust 2005-NC2 80 CCC 8.0% 35.1% Private Residential Mortgage Transaction 79 B 21.3% 34.6% NAAC 2007-S2 78 CCC 0.0% 11.1% Harborview 2006-10 75 CCC 0.0% 27.1% Countrywide ALT-A 2005-22T 72 B 5.7% 30.1% IndyMac IMSC Mortgage Loan Trust 2007-HOA1 67 CCC N/A 39.3% CSMC 2007-3 65 CCC 0.0% 32.4% Terwin Mortgage Trust 2005-16HE 65 B 5.5% 26.8% Countrywide HELOC 2006-H (includes $22.2 million repurchased, 24% owned)¹ 63 CCC N/A 17.6% ACE 2007-SL1 61 BB N/A 11.4% Terwin Mortgage Trust 2007-6 ALT (includes $30.2 million repurchased, 36% owned)¹ 60 CCC 0.0% 58.0% CSAB Mortgage-Backed Trust 2007-1 (includes $11.1 million repurchased, 32% owned)¹ 56 CCC 0.0% 32.8% Terwin Mortgage Trust 2005-14HE 50 B 5.7% 22.3% Total U.S. RMBS 13,355 $ 1.Represents amounts of gross par which were purchased or obtained as part of loss mitigation strategies and recorded as part of the investment portfolio. Note: Please refer to the Glossary for an explanation of net par outstanding, internal ratings and sectors. Assured Guaranty Ltd. Below Investment Grade Exposures (4 of 5) As of September 30, 2011 (dollars in millions) Page 27

 


Structured Finance BIG Exposures Greater Than $50 Million (continued) Net Par Internal Current Credit Name or description Outstanding Rating Enhancement U.S. structured finance: Other: Taberna Preferred Funding IV, Ltd 292 $ CCC 23.7% Taberna Preferred Funding III, Ltd 287 CCC 14.8% Alesco Preferred Funding XVI, Ltd 256 B 8.0% Attentus CDO I, Ltd 221 BB 33.0% Taberna Preferred Funding II, Ltd 220 CCC 22.1% Alesco Preferred Funding XVII, Ltd 202 B 17.6% Weinstein Film Securitization 197 CCC N/A Trapeza CDO XI 196 BB- 29.4% Attentus CDO II, Ltd 182 BB 29.8% Taberna Preferred Funding VI, Ltd 152 CCC 20.4% Trapeza CDO X, Ltd 148 BB- 31.2% Alesco Preferred Funding VI 147 BB+ 31.3% Preferred Term Securities XIX, Ltd 147 BB+ 33.2% US Capital Funding IV, LTD 147 B 16.0% NRG PEAKER (includes $231.1 million repurchased, 100% owned)1 2 143 CCC N/A GlenEagles Funding LTD (1st issue) 142 BB N/A Alesco Preferred Funding V 124 BB+ 34.8% National Collegiate Trust Series 2007-3 122 CCC N/A Preferred Term Securities XVI, Ltd 120 B 20.3% Synthetic High Yield Pooled Corporate CDO 113 CCC 3.9% Private Other Non-Municipal Transaction 111 CCC N/A National Collegiate Trust Series 2007-4 98 CCC N/A Conseco Finance Manufactured Housing Series 2001-2 89 BB 16.0% Greenpoint 2000-4 65 CCC 10.2% CAPCO - Excess SIPC Excess of Loss Reinsurance 63 BB N/A Preferred Term Securities XVIII, Ltd 60 BB 34.1% America West Airlines Series 2000-1 G-1 59 BB N/A Preferred Term Securities XVII, Ltd 56 BB+ 29.0% Preferred Term Securities XX, Ltd 53 BB 28.4% Rental Car Finance Corp. 2007-1 50 BB N/A Total other 4,262 $ Total 17,617 $ Non-U.S. structured finance: Ballantyne Re, PLC (includes $106.4 million repurchased, 21% owned)¹ 500 $ CC N/A Orkney Re II, Plc 423 CCC N/A GlenEagles Funding LTD (1st Issue) 232 BB N/A Augusta Funding Limited 05 Perpetual Note Issue 81 BB N/A Private Pooled Corporate Transaction 81 BB N/A Augusta Funding Limited 07 Perpetual Note Issue 77 BB N/A Synthetic High Yield Pooled Corporate CDO 76 CCC 3.9% Private Pooled Corporate Transaction 64 BB N/A Private Pooled Corporate Transaction 56 BB N/A Total 1,590 $ Total 19,207 $ 1. 2. Net par shown is net of $88.3 million of ceded par. The Company owns 100% of the collateral in the insured transaction. Note: Please refer to the Glossary for an explanation of net par outstanding, internal ratings and sectors. Assured Guaranty Ltd. Below Investment Grade Exposures (5 of 5) As of September 30, 2011 (dollars in millions) Represents amounts of gross par which were purchased or obtained as part of loss mitigation strategies and recorded as part of the investment portfolio. Page 28

 


Net Par Internal Credit name: Outstanding Rating New Jersey (State of) 4,392 $ AA- California (State of) 3,516 BBB+ Massachusetts (Commonwealth of) 3,100 AA New York (City of) New York 3,050 AA New York (State of) 2,722 AA- Chicago (City of) Illinois 2,553 AA- Miami- Dade County Florida Aviation Authority - Miami International Airport 2,331 A Puerto Rico (Commonwealth of) 2,305 BBB- Port Authority of New York and New Jersey 2,282 AA- Houston Texas Water and Sewer Authority 2,278 AA- Los Angeles California Unified School District 2,171 AA- Wisconsin (State of) 2,159 AA- New York MTA Transportation Authority 2,110 A Illinois (State of) 2,104 BBB+ Washington (State of) 2,100 AA- Massachusetts (Commonwealth of) State Sales Tax 1,928 AA University of California Board of Regents 1,923 AA- Pennsylvania (Commonwealth of) 1,869 AA Michigan (State of) 1,785 A+ Philadelphia (City of) Pennsylvania 1,772 BBB- New York City Municipal Water Finance Authority 1,761 AA+ Long Island Power Authority 1,649 A- Chicago- O'Hare International Airport 1,609 A Miami-Dade County Florida School Board 1,564 A- Arizona (State of) 1,523 AA- Chicago Illinois Public Schools 1,479 A+ Los Angeles California Department of Water and Power - Electric Revenue Bonds 1,452 AA- New Jersey Turnpike Authority 1,405 A- Puerto Rico Highway and Transportation Authority 1,396 BBB Atlanta Georgia Water & Sewer System 1,370 BBB+ Massachusetts (Commonwealth of) Water Resources 1,362 AA Kentucky (Commonwealth of) 1,328 AA- Illinois Toll Highway Authority 1,300 AA Metro Washington Airport Authority 1,271 A+ Hawaii (State of) Department of Hawaiian Home Lands 1,218 AA New York State Thruway - Highway Trust Fund 1,202 AA- Connecticut (State of) 1,181 AA+ Puerto Rico Electric Power Authority 1,175 A- Philadelphia Pennsylvania School District 1,160 A District of Columbia 1,117 A+ California State University System Trustee 1,115 A+ Georgia Board of Regents Revenue Stream 1,114 A Pennsylvania Turnpike Commission 1,094 A+ Orlando-Orange County Expressway Authority, Florida 1,094 A+ Detroit Michigan Sewer 1,086 BBB+ New York MTA Dedicated Tax 1,084 AA- Broward County Florida School Board 1,084 AA- Skyway Concession Company LLC 1,071 BBB- North Texas Tollway Authority 1,053 A Austin Texas Combined Utility System Revenue Bonds 1,023 AA- Total top 50 U.S. public finance exposures 86,790 $ Note: Please refer to the Glossary for an explanation of net par outstanding, internal ratings and sectors. Assured Guaranty Ltd. 50 Largest U.S. Public Finance Exposures As of September 30, 2011 (in millions) Largest Exposures by Sector (1 of 4) Page 29

 


Net Par Internal Credit Credit name: Outstanding Rating Enhancement Fortress Credit Opportunities I, LP. 1,302 $ AA 28.5% Stone Tower Credit Funding 1,254 AAA 30.6% Synthetic Investment Grade Pooled Corporate CDO 1,157 AAA 13.3% Synthetic High Yield Pooled Corporate CDO 975 AAA 41.1% Synthetic High Yield Pooled Corporate CDO 842 Super Senior 31.4% Deutsche Alt-A Securities Mortgage Loan 2007-2 807 CCC 0.0% Synthetic Investment Grade Pooled Corporate CDO 763 Super Senior 14.8% Synthetic Investment Grade Pooled Corporate CDO 754 Super Senior 29.4% Mizuho II Synthetic CDO 747 A N/A Synthetic Investment Grade Pooled Corporate CDO 738 Super Senior 23.6% Synthetic Investment Grade Pooled Corporate CDO 733 Super Senior 29.2% Synthetic High Yield Pooled Corporate CDO 731 AAA 40.0% Private Consumer Receivable transaction 700 Super Senior 58.4% 280 FUNDING I 660 AAA 40.5% Synthetic Investment Grade Pooled Corporate CDO 653 AAA 17.2% ARES Enhanced Credit Opportunities Fund 608 AAA 29.5% MABS 2007-NCW 562 B 30.6% Synthetic Investment Grade Pooled Corporate CDO 514 Super Senior 14.3% Synthetic High Yield Pooled Corporate CDO 494 AAA 46.7% Denali CLO VII, LTD. 486 AAA 20.1% Shenandoah Trust Capital I Term Securities 484 A+ N/A Eastland CLO, LTD 455 Super Senior 38.6% Countrywide HELOC 2006-I 452 CCC 0.0% SLM Private Credit Student Trust 2007-A 450 BBB 12.5% Phoenix CLO II 449 AAA 21.3% Synthetic High Yield Pooled Corporate CDO 437 AAA 29.5% Synthetic Investment Grade Pooled Corporate CDO 433 AAA 10.7% LIICA Holdings, LLC 428 AA N/A MASTR 2007-3 (NEGAM) 418 CCC 0.0% Private Residential Mortgage Transaction 417 B 17.1% Private Residential Mortgage Transaction 414 BB 20.4% Synthetic Investment Grade Pooled Corporate CDO 414 Super Senior 12.0% Churchill Financial Cayman 413 AAA 36.1% Mortgage IT Securities Corp. Mortgage Loan 2007-2 410 B 9.1% KKR Financial CLO 2007-1 409 AAA 51.3% Private Consumer Receivable Transaction 400 Super Senior 62.2% GRAYSON CLO 397 Super Senior 28.8% Synthetic High Yield Pooled Corporate CDO 393 Super Senior 35.1% SLM Student Loan Trust 2007 -6 392 AAA 3.8% Synthetic High Yield Pooled Corporate CDO 388 AAA 29.5% Synthetic Investment Grade Pooled Corporate CDO 380 Super Senior 29.2% Countrywide HELOC 2006-F (includes $98.7 million repurchased, 32% owned)1 378 CCC 0.0% Option One 2007-FXD2 374 CCC 15.7% Synthetic Investment Grade Pooled Corporate CDO 373 Super Senior 14.2% Private Residential Mortgage Transaction 373 CCC 19.3% Deutsche Alt-A Securities Mortgage Loan 2007-3 372 B 4.1% ARES Enhanced Credit Opportunities Fund 369 AAA 29.5% Westchester CLO 367 AAA 39.8% Symphony Credit Opportunities Fund 364 AAA 28.5% CENT CDO 15 LIMITED 362 Super Senior 17.8% Total top 50 U.S. structured finance exposures 27,645 $ 1. Note: Please refer to the Glossary for an explanation of net par outstanding, internal ratings and sectors. Represents amounts of gross par which were purchased or obtained as part of loss mitigation strategies and recorded as part of the investment portfolio. 50 Largest U.S. Structured Finance Exposures Assured Guaranty Ltd. Largest Exposures by Sector (2 of 4) As of September 30, 2011 (dollars in millions) Page 30

 


Net Par Internal Credit name: Outstanding Rating Quebec Province 2,240 $ A+ Sydney Airport Finance Company 1,578 BBB Thames Water Utility Finance PLC 1,531 A- Fortress Credit Investments I 977 AAA Essential Public Infrastructure Capital II 955 Super Senior Channel Link Enterprises Finance PLC 904 BBB International AAA Sovereign Debt Synthetic CDO 821 AAA Southern Gas Networks PLC 820 BBB Campania Region - Healthcare receivable 773 A- Japan Expressway Holding and Debt Repayment Agency 720 AA Paragon Mortgages (No.13) PLC 717 AAA Capital Hospitals (Issuer) PLC 703 BBB- Societe des Autoroutes du Nord et de l'est de France S.A. 697 BBB+ United Utilities Water PLC 691 BBB+ Synthetic Investment Grade Pooled Corporate CDO 676 Super Senior International Infrastructure Pool (WISE 2006-1 Plc Senior Swap - B) 667 A- International Infrastructure Pool (WISE 2006-1 Plc Senior Swap - A) 667 A- International Infrastructure Pool (WISE 2006-1 Plc Senior Swap - C) 667 A- Southern Water Services Limited 664 A- Reliance Rail Finance Pty. Limited 646 BB Synthetic Investment Grade Pooled Corporate CDO 551 Super Senior ETSA Utility Finance Pty. Limited 545 A- Taberna Europe CDO II PLC 537 BBB- DBNGP Finance Co Pty Ltd Note Issue 1 & 2 534 BBB- Central Nottinghamshire Hospitals PLC 529 BBB Total top 25 non-U.S. exposures 20,810 $ Note: Please refer to the Glossary for an explanation of net par outstanding, internal ratings and sectors. 25 Largest Non-U.S. Exposures Assured Guaranty Ltd. Largest Exposures by Sector (3 of 4) As of September 30, 2011 (in millions) Page 31

 


Net Par Servicer: Outstanding Bank of America, N.A.1 7,371 $ Wells Fargo Bank, N.A. 2,485 American Home Mortgage Servicing, Inc. 2,432 GMAC Mortgage, LLC 1,927 Specialized Loan Servicing, LLC 1,654 JPMorgan Chase Bank 1,340 Ocwen Loan Servicing, LLC 1,163 OneWest Bank Group, LLC 694 Select Portfolio Servicing, Inc. 469 Carrington Mortgage Services, LLC 367 Total top 10 U.S. residential mortgage servicers exposures 19,902 $ Net Par Internal Credit name: Outstanding Rating State CHRISTUS Health 489 $ A+ TX MultiCare Health System 446 A+ WA Methodist Healthcare, TN 375 A TN Virtua Health - New Jersey 355 A NJ Meridian Health System 355 A- NJ Iowa Health System 339 A+ IA Bon Secours Health System Obligated Group 311 A- MD Asante Health System 291 A OR Lehigh Valley Health Network 287 A+ PA Children's National Medical Center 287 BBB+ DC Total top 10 U.S. healthcare exposures 3,535 $ 1. Includes Countrywide Home Loans Servicing LP. Note: Please refer to the Glossary for an explanation of net par outstanding, internal ratings and sectors. 10 Largest U.S. Healthcare Exposures 10 Largest U.S. Residential Mortgage Servicers Exposures Assured Guaranty Ltd. Largest Exposures by Sector (4 of 4) As of September 30, 2011 (in millions) Page 32

 


Rollforward of Net Expected Loss and LAE to be Paid for the Three Months Ended September 30, 2011 Expected Loss to be Paid as of Economic Loss Development (Paid) Recovered Losses Expected Loss to be Paid as of Credit Derivatives June 30, 2011 During 3Q-11 1 During 3Q-11 September 30, 2011 First lien: Prime first lien 3.2 $ (0.8) $ - $ 2.4 $ Alt-A first lien 377.9 (38.2) (27.9) 311.8 Option ARMs 350.8 48.8 (86.0) 313.6 Subprime first lien 294.5 26.3 (3.0) 317.8 Total first lien 1,026.4 36.1 (116.9) 945.6 Second lien: Closed end seconds (99.0) 48.1 (3.5) (54.4) HELOC (38.3) (7.8) (23.9) (70.0) Total second lien (137.3) 40.3 (27.4) (124.4) Total U.S. RMBS 889.1 76.4 (144.3) 821.2 TruPS 82.7 15.7 (0.1) 98.3 Other structured finance 276.0 88.1 (7.2) 356.9 Public finance 66.2 6.8 (30.3) 42.7 1,314.0 $ 187.0 $ (181.9) $ 1,319.1 $ Rollforward of Net Expected Loss and LAE to be Paid for the Nine Months Ended September 30, 2011 Expected Loss to be Paid as of Economic Loss Development (Paid) Recovered Losses Expected Loss to be Paid as of Credit Derivatives December 31, 2010 During 2011 1 During 2011 September 30, 2011 First lien: Prime first lien 1.4 $ 1.0 $ - $ 2.4 $ Alt-A first lien 399.8 (15.2) (72.8) 311.8 Option ARMs 628.8 (34.4) (280.8) 313.6 Subprime first lien 310.6 22.9 (15.7) 317.8 Total first lien 1,340.6 (25.7) (369.3) 945.6 Second lien: Closed end seconds 87.5 (87.0) (54.9) (54.4) HELOC (805.7) 96.9 638.8 (70.0) Total second lien (718.2) 9.9 583.9 (124.4) Total U.S. RMBS 622.4 (15.8) 214.6 821.2 TruPS 90.3 11.9 (3.9) 98.3 Other structured finance 261.2 105.9 (10.2) 356.9 Public finance 88.9 (6.7) (39.5) 42.7 1,062.8 $ 95.3 $ 161.0 $ 1,319.1 $ 1 Includes the effect of changes in the Company's estimate of future recovery on representations and warranties ("R&W"). Financial Guaranty Insurance Contracts and U.S. RMBS Total Total Assured Guaranty Ltd. Rollforward of Net Expected Loss and Loss Adjustment Expenses ("LAE") to be Paid (in millions) Financial Guaranty Insurance Contracts and U.S. RMBS Page 33

 


Financial Guaranty Insurance and Credit Derivatives U.S. RMBS R&W Benefit Development for the Three Months Ended September 30, 2011 R&W R&W Future Net R&W Economic Recovered Future Net R&W Benefit at Loss Development During Benefit at June 30, 2011 During 3Q-11 3Q-11 September 30, 2011 Financial guaranty insurance: Prime first lien 2.9 $ 0.1 $ - $ 3.0 $ Alt-A first lien 127.6 65.1 - 192.7 Option ARMs 711.2 81.7 (20.2) 772.7 Subprime first lien 1 81.5 26.2 - 107.7 Closed end seconds 239.7 (23.9) (9.0) 206.8 HELOC 310.4 9.9 (52.2) 268.1 Total 1,473.3 $ 159.1 $ (81.4) $ 1,551.0 $ Credit derivatives 170.4 $ 42.6 $ - $ 213.0 $ Financial Guaranty Insurance and Credit Derivatives U.S. RMBS R&W Benefit Development for the Nine Months Ended September 30, 2011 R&W R&W Future Net R&W Economic Recovered Future Net R&W Benefit at Loss Development During Benefit at December 31, 2010 During 2011 2011 September 30, 2011 Financial guaranty insurance: Prime first lien 1.1 $ 1.9 $ - $ 3.0 $ Alt-A first lien 81.0 111.7 - 192.7 Option ARMs 309.3 530.9 (67.5) 772.7 Subprime first lien 1 26.8 80.9 - 107.7 Closed end seconds 178.2 37.6 (9.0) 206.8 HELOC 1,004.1 167.0 (903.0) 268.1 Total 1,600.5 $ 930.0 $ (979.5) $ 1,551.0 $ Credit derivatives 70.2 $ 147.1 $ (4.3) $ 213.0 $ Financial Guaranty Insurance and Credit Derivatives U.S. RMBS Policies With R&W Benefit September 30, 2011 December 31, 2010 September 30, 2011 December 31, 2010 Financial guaranty insurance: Prime first lien 1 1 54.0 $ 57.1 $ Alt-A first lien 20 17 1,778.4 1,882.8 Option ARMs 11 10 1,768.0 1,909.8 Subprime first lien 1 5 1 1,071.7 228.7 Closed end seconds 4 4 378.7 444.9 HELOC 15 13 3,522.0 2,969.8 Total 56 46 8,572.8 $ 7,493.1 $ Credit derivatives 7 6 3,333.3 $ 3,616.5 $ 1. Includes net interest margin. Assured Guaranty Ltd. Financial Guaranty Insurance and Credit Derivatives U.S. RMBS R&W Benefit Development (dollars in millions) Number of Risks as of Debt Service as of Page 34

 


Total Net Par Outstanding for BIG Transactions 1 3Q-11 Losses Incurred 2011 Losses Incurred Net Reserve and Credit Impairment Net Salvage and Subrogation Assets Net Expected Loss to be Expensed U.S. RMBS First lien: Prime first lien 603.2 $ (0.4) $ 0.7 $ 1.8 $ - $ 0.6 $ Alt-A first lien 4,842.0 5.1 33.9 220.3 47.7 147.8 Option ARMs 2,387.4 91.1 134.7 236.9 121.1 223.6 Subprime first lien 2 2,969.8 7.4 22.8 215.3 - 89.4 Total first lien 10,802.4 103.2 192.1 674.3 168.8 461.4 Second lien: Closed end seconds 1,034.8 23.6 (17.1) 3.6 114.1 108.3 HELOC 3,429.7 18.5 116.5 49.5 198.4 166.9 Total second lien 4,464.5 42.1 99.4 53.1 312.5 275.2 Total U.S. RMBS 15,266.9 145.3 291.5 727.4 481.3 736.6 TruPS 3,184.1 24.4 20.8 83.5 - 2.1 Other structured finance 3,359.5 88.9 115.9 336.7 5.8 38.1 Public finance 5,416.5 (5.1) (17.1) 56.5 64.3 46.7 27,227.0 253.5 411.1 1,204.1 551.4 823.5 Effect of consolidating financial guaranty VIEs - (37.9) (105.5) (74.8) (236.8) (240.0) Total 27,227.0 215.6 305.6 1,129.3 314.6 583.5 Other - 0.2 0.2 1.9 - - Total 27,227.0 $ 215.8 $ 305.8 $ 1,131.2 $ 314.6 $ 583.5 $ Insurance Reserves Credit Impairment on Credit Derivative Contracts 3 Reserve and Credit Impairment Salvage and Subrogation Recoverable Net Gross 670.7 $ 536.1 $ 1,206.8 $ 360.2 $ 846.6 $ Ceded 48.0 27.6 75.6 45.6 4 30.0 Net 622.7 $ 508.5 $ 1,131.2 $ 314.6 $ 816.6 $ 1. 2. Includes net interest margin. 3. Credit derivative assets and liabilities recorded on the balance sheet considers estimates of expected losses. 4. Recorded in "reinsurance balances payable, net" on the consolidated balance sheets. As of September 30, 2011, securities purchased for loss mitigation purposes represented $1,093.1 million of gross par outstanding. In addition, under the terms of certain credit derivative contracts, the Company has obtained the underlying collateral of transactions and recorded it in invested assets in the consolidated balance sheets. Such amounts totaled $245.4 million in gross par outstanding. Subtotal Financial Guaranty Insurance Contracts and Credit Derivatives Assured Guaranty Ltd. Losses Incurred As of September 30, 2011 (in millions) Page 35

 


2010 2009 2008 2007 GAAP Summary Income Statement Data Net earned premiums 695.1 $ 1,186.7 $ 930.4 $ 261.4 $ 159.3 $ Net investment income 290.7 354.7 259.2 162.6 128.1 Realized gains and other settlements on credit derivatives 25.1 153.5 163.6 117.6 74.0 Total expenses 559.1 764.2 800.2 440.9 161.5 Income (loss) before income taxes 1,181.2 549.3 116.9 112.3 (463.0) Net income (loss) attributable to Assured Guaranty Ltd. 859.2 493.7 86.0 68.9 (303.3) Net income (loss) attributable to Assured Guaranty Ltd. per diluted share 4.61 2.61 0.66 0.77 (4.38) GAAP Summary Balance Sheet Data Total investments and cash 11,435.8 10,849.3 11,012.5 3,643.6 3,147.9 Total assets 18,405.0 19,841.9 16,779.4 4,555.7 3,762.9 Unearned premium reserve 6,111.8 6,972.9 8,381.0 1,233.7 887.2 Loss and LAE reserve 670.7 574.4 299.7 196.8 125.6 Long-term debt 1,041.7 1,052.9 1,066.5 347.2 347.1 Shareholders’ equity attributable to Assured Guaranty Ltd. 4,766.7 3,733.5 3,509.3 1,926.2 1,666.6 Book value attributable to Assured per share 26.16 20.32 19.06 21.18 20.85 Non-GAAP Financial Measures Operating income 430.9 $ 664.1 $ 282.2 $ 74.5 $ 178.0 $ Operating income per diluted share 2.31 3.51 2.18 0.84 2.57 Adjusted book value 8,904.9 8,988.9 8,886.9 3,817.8 3,349.8 PVP 155.2 362.7 640.2 823.0 874.6 Other Financial Information (GAAP Basis) Net debt service outstanding (end of period) 865,692 $ 927,143 $ 958,265 $ 348,816 $ 302,413 $ Gross debt service outstanding (end of period) 959,429 1,029,982 1,095,037 354,858 307,657 Net par outstanding (end of period) 571,725 617,131 640,422 222,722 200,279 Gross par outstanding (end of period) 630,163 681,248 726,929 227,164 204,809 Other Financial Information (Statutory Basis) Net debt service outstanding (end of period) 850,540 $ 905,131 $ 942,193 $ 348,816 $ 302,413 $ Gross debt service outstanding (end of period) 941,853 1,004,096 1,076,039 354,858 307,657 Net par outstanding (end of period) 557,794 598,843 626,274 222,722 200,279 Gross par outstanding (end of period) 614,019 659,765 709,786 227,164 204,809 Consolidated qualified statutory capital 5,703 4,915 4,841 2,310 2,079 Consolidated policyholders' surplus and reserves 10,841 10,247 10,409 3,652 3,040 Ratios: Par insured to statutory capital 98:1 122:1 129:1 96:1 96:1 Capital ratio 1 149:1 184:1 195:1 151:1 145:1 Financial resources ratio 2 65:1 72:1 72:1 70:1 68:1 Gross debt service written: Public finance - U.S. 18,781 $ 48,990 $ 87,940 $ 68,265 $ 66,190 $ Public finance - non-U.S. - 51 894 3,350 11,849 Structured finance - U.S. 1,158 2,962 2,501 13,972 42,414 Structured finance - non-U.S. - - - 5,490 13,122 Total gross debt service written 19,939 $ 52,003 $ 91,335 $ 91,077 $ 133,575 $ Net debt service written 19,939 $ 52,003 $ 91,335 $ 89,871 $ 129,872 $ Net par written 11,300 30,759 49,759 55,418 84,686 Gross par written 11,300 30,759 49,921 56,140 88,117 1. The capital ratio is calculated by dividing net debt service outstanding by qualified statutory capital. Note: Please refer to the explanation within the Non-GAAP Financial Measures. Assured Guaranty Ltd. Summary Financial and Statistical Data (dollars in millions, except per share amounts) 2. The financial resources ratio is calculated by dividing net debt service outstanding by total claims paying resources. Year Ended December 31, As of and for Nine Months Ended September 30, 2011 Page 36

 


Glossary Net Par Outstanding and Internal Ratings Internal Rating for the Company’s ratings scale is similar to that used by the nationally recognized statistical rating organizations; however, the ratings in the tables may not be the same as ratings assigned by any such rating agency. The super senior category, which is not generally used by rating agencies, is used by the Company in instances where Assured Guaranty's AAA-rated exposure on its internal rating scale has additional credit enhancement due to either (a) the existence of another security rated AAA that is subordinated to Assured Guaranty's exposure or (b) Assured Guaranty's exposure benefiting from a different form of credit enhancement that would pay any claims first in the event that any of the exposures incurs a loss, and such credit enhancement, in management's opinion, causes Assured Guaranty's attachment point to be materially above the AAA attachment point. Net par outstanding is insured par exposure net of reinsurance cessions. Performance Indicators The performance information described below is obtained from sources such as Intex, Bloomberg and/or provided by the trustee and may be subject to restatement or correction: 60+ Day Delinquencies are defined as loans that are greater than 60 days delinquent and all loans that are in foreclosure, bankruptcy or real estate owned divided by current collateral balance. Average Credit Enhancement is intended to provide a measure of the amount of equity and/or subordinated tranches that are junior in the capital structure to Assured Guaranty’s exposure, expressed as a percentage of the total transaction size, and reflects any reduction of that credit support resulting from defaults or other factors. For transactions where excess spread may be available to absorb certain losses, the amounts shown do not include any benefit from excess spread. The calculation methodologies differ for the various asset classes to reflect differences in transaction structures in order to provide a measure that management believes is comparable across asset classes. Cumulative Losses are defined as net charge-offs on the underlying loan collateral divided by the original collateral balance. Pool Factor is the percentage of the current collateral balance divided by the original collateral balance of the transactions at inception. Subordination represents the sum of subordinate tranches and overcollateralization, expressed as a percentage of total transaction size, and does not include any benefit from excess spread collections that may be used to absorb losses. Many of the closed-end second lien RMBS transactions insured by the Company have unique structures whereby the collateral may be written down for losses without a corresponding write-down of the obligations insured by the Company. Many of these transactions are currently undercollateralized, with the principal amount of collateral being less than the principal amount of the obligation insured by the Company. The Company is not required to pay principal shortfalls until legal maturity (rather than making timely principal payments), and takes the undercollateralization into account when estimating expected losses for these transactions. Sectors Below are brief descriptions of selected types of public and structured finance obligations that the Company insures and reinsures. For a more complete description, please refer to Assured Guaranty Ltd.’s Annual Report on Form 10-K for December 31, 2010. Public Finance: General Obligation Bonds are full faith and credit bonds that are issued by states, their political subdivisions and other municipal issuers, and are supported by the general obligation of the issuer to pay from available funds and by a pledge of the issuer to levy ad valorem taxes in an amount sufficient to provide for the full payment of the bonds. Tax-Backed Bonds are obligations that are supported by the issuer from specific and discrete sources of taxation. They include tax-backed revenue bonds, general fund obligations and lease revenue bonds. Tax-backed obligations may be secured by a lien on specific pledged tax revenues, such as a gasoline or excise tax, or incrementally from growth in property tax revenue associated with growth in property values. These obligations also include obligations secured by special assessments levied against property owners and often benefit from issuer covenants to enforce collections of such assessments and to foreclose on delinquent properties. Lease revenue bonds typically are general fund obligations of a municipality or other governmental authority that are subject to annual appropriation or abatement; projects financed and subject to such lease payments ordinarily include real estate or equipment serving an essential public purpose. Bonds in this category also include moral obligations of municipalities or governmental authorities. Municipal Utility Bonds are obligations of all forms of municipal utilities, including electric, water and sewer utilities and resource recovery revenue bonds. These utilities may be organized in various forms, including municipal enterprise systems, authorities or joint action agencies. Transportation Bonds include a wide variety of revenue-supported bonds, such as bonds for airports, ports, tunnels, municipal parking facilities, toll roads and toll bridges. Healthcare Bonds are obligations of healthcare facilities, including community-based hospitals and systems, as well as of health maintenance organizations and long-term care facilities. Higher Education Bonds are obligations secured by revenue collected by either public or private secondary schools, colleges and universities. Such revenue can encompass all of an institution’s revenue, including tuition and fees, or in other cases, can be specifically restricted to certain auxiliary sources of revenue. Page 37

 


Glossary (continued) Sectors (continued) Infrastructure Bonds include obligations issued by a variety of entities engaged in the financing of infrastructure projects, such as roads, airports, ports, social infrastructure and other physical assets delivering essential services supported by long-term concession arrangements with a public sector entity. Investor-Owned Utility Bonds are obligations primarily backed by investor-owned utilities, first mortgage bond obligations of for-profit electric or water utilities providing retail, industrial and commercial service, and also include sale-leaseback obligation bonds supported by such entities. Housing Revenue Bonds are obligations relating to both single and multi-family housing, issued by states and localities, supported by cash flow and, in some cases, insurance from entities such as the Federal Housing Administration. Regulated Utilities Obligations are issued by government-regulated providers of essential services and commodities, including electric, water and gas utilities. The majority of the Company’s international regulated utility business is conducted in the United Kingdom. Pooled Infrastructure Obligations are synthetic asset-backed obligations that take the form of CDS obligations or credit-linked notes that reference either infrastructure finance obligations or a pool of such obligations, with a defined deductible to cover credit risks associated with the referenced obligations. Other Public Finance primarily includes government insured student loans, government-sponsored project finance and structured municipal transactions, which includes excess of loss reinsurance on portfolios of municipal credits. Structured Finance: Pooled Corporate Obligations are securities primarily backed by various types of corporate debt obligations, such as secured or unsecured bonds, bank loans or loan participations and trust preferred securities. These securities are often issued in ‘‘tranches,’’ with subordinated tranches providing credit support to the more senior tranches. The Company’s financial guaranty exposures generally are to the more senior tranches of these issues. Residential Mortgage-Backed Securities (‘‘RMBS’’) and Home Equity Securities are obligations backed by closed-end first mortgage loans and closed- and open-end second mortgage loans or home equity loans on one-to-four family residential properties, including condominiums and cooperative apartments. First mortgage loan products in these transactions include fixed rate, adjustable rate (‘‘ARM’’) and option adjustable-rate (‘‘Option ARM’’) mortgages. The credit quality of borrowers covers a broad range, including ‘‘prime’’, ‘‘subprime’’ and ‘‘Alt-A’’. A prime borrower is generally defined as one with strong risk characteristics as measured by factors such as payment history, credit score, and debt-to-income ratio. A subprime borrower is a borrower with higher risk characteristics, usually as determined by credit score and/or credit history. An Alt-A borrower is generally defined as a prime quality borrower that lacks certain ancillary characteristics, such as fully documented income. Additional insured obligations within RMBS include Home Equity Lines of Credit (“HELOCs”), which refers to a type of residential mortgage-backed transaction backed by second-lien loan collateral consisting of home equity lines of credit. U.S. Prime First Lien is a type of residential mortgage-backed securities transaction backed primarily by prime first-lien loan collateral plus an insignificant amount of other miscellaneous RMBS transactions. CBOs/CLOs (collateralized bond obligations and collateralized loan obligations) are asset-backed securities largely backed by noninvestment grade/high yield collateral. Commercial Mortgage-Backed Securities (‘‘CMBS’’) are obligations backed by pools of commercial mortgages. The collateral supporting CMBS include office, multifamily, retail, hotel, industrial and other specialized or mixed-use properties. Financial Products is the guaranteed investment contracts ("GICs") portion of the former Financial Products Business of AGMH. AGM has issued financial guaranty insurance policies on the GICs and in respect of the GICs business that cannot be revoked or cancelled. Assured Guaranty is indemnified against exposure to the former financial products business by Dexia SA and certain of its affiliates. In addition, the French and Belgian governments have issued guaranties in respect of the GICs portion of the financial products business. The financial products business is currently being run off. Consumer Receivables Securities are obligations backed by non-mortgage consumer receivables, such as automobile loans and leases, credit card receivables and other consumer receivables. Commercial Receivables Securities are obligations backed by equipment loans or leases, fleet auto financings, business loans and trade receivables. Credit support is derived from the cash flows generated by the underlying obligations, as well as property or equipment values as applicable. Insurance Securitization Securities are obligations secured by the future earnings from pools of various types of insurance/reinsurance policies and income produced by invested assets. Structured Credit Securities include program-wide credit enhancement for commercial paper conduits in the U.S., and securities issued in whole business securitizations and intellectual property securitizations. Program-wide credit enhancement generally involves insuring against the default of ABS in a bank-sponsored commercial paper conduit. Securities issued in whole business and intellectual property securitizations are backed by revenue-producing assets sold to a limited-purpose company by an operating company, including franchise agreements, lease agreements, intellectual property and real property. Other Structured Finance Securities are obligations backed by assets not generally described in any of the other described categories. One such type of asset is a tax benefit to be realized by an investor in one of the Federal or state programs that permit such investor to receive a credit against taxes (such as Federal corporate income tax or state insurance premium tax) for making qualified investments in specified enterprises, typically located in designated low-income areas. Page 38

 


Non-GAAP Financial Measures The Company references financial measures that are not in accordance with accounting principles generally accepted in the United States of America (“GAAP”). Assured Guaranty’s management and board of directors utilize non-GAAP measures in evaluating the Company’s financial performance and as a basis for determining senior management incentive compensation. By providing these non-GAAP financial measures, investors, analysts and financial news reporters have access to the same information that management reviews internally. In addition, Assured Guaranty’s presentation of non-GAAP financial measures is consistent with how analysts calculate their estimates of Assured Guaranty’s financial results in their research reports on Assured Guaranty and with how investors, analysts and the financial news media evaluate Assured Guaranty’s financial results. The following paragraphs define each non-GAAP financial measure and describe why it is useful. A reconciliation of the non-GAAP financial measure and the most directly comparable GAAP financial measure, if available, is presented within this financial supplement. Non-GAAP financial measures should not be viewed as substitutes for their most directly comparable GAAP measures. Operating Income: Management believes that operating income is a useful measure because it clarifies the understanding of the underwriting results of the Company’s financial guaranty insurance business, and also includes financing costs and net investment income, and enables investors and analysts to evaluate the Company’s financial results as compared with the consensus analyst estimates distributed publicly by financial databases. Operating income is defined as net income (loss) attributable to Assured Guaranty Ltd., as reported under GAAP, adjusted for the following: 1) Elimination of the after-tax realized gains (losses) on the Company’s investments, except for gains and losses on securities classified as trading. The timing of realized gains and losses, which depends largely on market credit cycles, can vary considerably across periods. The timing of sales is largely subject to the Company’s discretion and influenced by market opportunities, as well as the Company’s tax and capital profile. Trends in the underlying profitability of the Company’s business can be more clearly identified without the fluctuating effects of these transactions. 2) Elimination of the after-tax non-credit-impairment unrealized fair value gains (losses) on credit derivatives, which is the amount in excess of the present value of the expected estimated economic credit losses and non-economic payments. Such fair value adjustments are heavily affected by, and in part fluctuate with, changes in market interest rates, credit spreads and other market factors and are not expected to result in an economic gain or loss. Additionally, such adjustments present all financial guaranty contracts on a more consistent basis of accounting, whether or not they are subject to derivative accounting rules. 3) Elimination of the after-tax fair value gains (losses) on the Company’s committed capital securities. Such amounts are heavily affected by, and in part fluctuate with, changes in market interest rates, credit spreads and other market factors and are not expected to result in an economic gain or loss. 4) Elimination of the after-tax foreign exchange gains (losses) on revaluation of net premium receivables. Long-dated receivables constitute a significant portion of the net premium receivable balance and represent the present value of future contractual or expected collections. Therefore, the current period’s foreign exchange revaluation gains (losses) are not necessarily indicative of the total foreign exchange gains (losses) that the Company will ultimately recognize. 5) Elimination of the effects of consolidating certain financial guaranty VIEs in order to present all financial guaranty contracts on a more consistent basis of accounting, whether or not GAAP requires consolidation. GAAP requires the Company to consolidate certain VIEs that have issued debt obligations insured by the Company even though the Company does not own such VIEs. Operating Shareholders’ Equity: Management believes that operating shareholders’ equity is a useful measure because it presents the equity of Assured Guaranty Ltd. with all financial guaranty contracts accounted for on a more consistent basis and excludes fair value adjustments that are not expected to result in economic loss. Many investors, analysts and financial news reporters use operating shareholders’ equity as the principal financial measure for valuing Assured Guaranty Ltd.’s current share price or projected share price and also as the basis of their decision to recommend, buy or sell Assured Guaranty Ltd.’s common shares. Many of the Company’s fixed income investors also use operating shareholders’ equity to evaluate the Company’s capital adequacy. Operating shareholders’ equity is the basis of the calculation of adjusted book value (see below). Operating shareholders’ equity is defined as shareholders’ equity attributable to Assured Guaranty Ltd. , as reported under GAAP, adjusted for the following: 1) Elimination of the effects of consolidating certain VIEs in order to present all financial guaranty contracts on a more consistent basis of accounting, whether or not GAAP requires consolidation. GAAP requires the Company to consolidate certain VIEs that have issued debt obligations insured by the Company even though the Company does not own such VIEs. 2) Elimination of the after-tax non-credit-impairment unrealized fair value gains (losses) on credit derivatives, which is the amount in excess of the present value of the expected estimated economic credit losses and non-economic payments. Such fair value adjustments are heavily affected by, and in part fluctuate with, changes in market interest rates, credit spreads and other market factors and are not expected to result in an economic gain or loss. 3) Elimination of the after-tax fair value gains (losses) on the Company’s committed capital securities. Such amounts are heavily affected by, and in part fluctuate with, changes in market interest rates, credit spreads and other market factors and are not expected to result in an economic gain or loss. 4) Elimination of the after-tax unrealized gains (losses) on the Company’s investments, that are recorded as a component of accumulated other comprehensive income ("AOCI") (excluding foreign exchange revaluation). The AOCI component of the fair value adjustment on the investment portfolio is not deemed economic because the Company generally holds these investments to maturity and therefore will not recognize an economic loss. Operating return on equity (‘‘Operating ROE’’): Operating ROE represents operating income for a specified period divided by the average of operating shareholders’ equity at the beginning and the end of that period. Management believes that operating ROE is a useful measure to evaluate the Company’s return on invested capital. Many investors, analysts and members of the financial news media use operating ROE to evaluate Assured Guaranty Ltd.’s share price and as the basis of their decision to recommend, buy or sell the Assured Guaranty Ltd. common shares. Quarterly and year-to-date operating ROE are calculated on an annualized basis. Page 39

 


Non-GAAP Financial Measures (continued) Adjusted Book Value: Management believes that adjusted book value is a useful measure because it enables an evaluation of the net present value of the Company’s in-force premiums and revenues in addition to operating shareholders’ equity. The premiums and revenues included in adjusted book value will be earned in future periods, but actual earnings may differ materially from the estimated amounts used in determining current adjusted book value due to changes in, foreign exchange rates, refinancing or refunding activity, prepayment speeds, terminations, credit defaults and other factors. Many investors, analysts and financial news reporters use adjusted book value to evaluate Assured Guaranty Ltd.’s share price and as the basis of their decision to recommend, buy or sell the Assured Guaranty Ltd. common shares. Adjusted book value is operating shareholders’ equity, as defined above, further adjusted for the following: 1) Elimination of after-tax deferred acquisition costs. These amounts represent net deferred expenses that have already been paid or accrued and will be expensed in future accounting periods. 2) Addition of the after-tax net present value of estimated net future credit derivative revenue. See below. 3) Addition of the after-tax value of the unearned premium reserve on financial guaranty contracts in excess of expected loss to be expensed, net of reinsurance. This amount represents the expected future net earned premiums, net of expected losses to be expensed. Net expected losses to be expensed are not reflected in GAAP equity. Net present value of estimated net future credit derivative revenue: Management believes that this amount is a useful measure because it enables an evaluation of the value of future estimated credit derivative revenue. There is no corresponding GAAP financial measure. This amount represents the present value of estimated future revenue from the Company’s credit derivative in-force book of business, net of reinsurance, ceding commissions and premium taxes for contracts without expected economic losses, and is discounted at 6% (which represents the Company’s tax-equivalent pre-tax investment yield on its investment portfolio). Estimated net future credit derivative revenue may change from period to period due to changes in foreign exchange rates, prepayment speeds, terminations, credit defaults or other factors that affect par outstanding or the ultimate maturity of an obligation. PVP or present value of new business production: Management believes that PVP is a useful measure because it enables the evaluation of the value of new business production for Assured Guaranty by taking into account the value of estimated future installment premiums on all new contracts underwritten in a reporting period as well as premium supplements and additional installment premium on existing contracts as to which the issuer has the right to call the insured obligation but has not exercised such right, whether in insurance or credit derivative contract form, which GAAP gross premiums written and the net credit derivative premiums received and receivable portion of net realized gains and other settlement on credit derivatives (“Credit Derivative Revenues”) do not adequately measure. PVP in respect of insurance and credit derivative contracts written in a specified period is defined as gross upfront and installment premiums received and the present value of gross estimated future installment premiums, in each case, discounted at 6% (the Company’s tax-equivalent pre-tax investment yield on its investment portfolio). For purposes of the PVP calculation, management discounts estimated future installment premiums on insurance contracts at 6%, while under GAAP, these amounts are discounted at a risk free rate. Additionally, under GAAP, management records future installment premiums on financial guaranty insurance contracts covering non-homogeneous pools of assets based on the contractual term of the transaction, whereas for PVP purposes, management records an estimate of the future installment premiums the Company expects to receive, which may be based upon a shorter period of time than the contractual term of the transaction. Actual future net earned or written premiums and Credit Derivative Revenues may differ from PVP due to factors including, but not limited to, changes in foreign exchange rates, refinancing or refunding activity, prepayment speeds, terminations, credit defaults, or other factors that affect par outstanding or the ultimate maturity of an obligation. Page 40

 


Contacts: Equity and Fixed Income Investors: Robert Tucker Managing Director, Investor Relations (212) 339-0861 rtucker@assuredguaranty.com Ross Aron Vice President, Investor Relations (212) 261-5509 raron@assuredguaranty.com Assured Guaranty Ltd. Michael Walker 30 Woodbourne Avenue Director, Fixed Income Investor Relations Hamilton HM 08 (212) 261-5575 Bermuda mwalker@assuredguaranty.com (441) 279-5705 www.assuredguaranty.com Media: Ashweeta Durani Vice President, Corporate Communications (212) 408-6042 adurani@assuredguaranty.com