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EX-99.1 - EX-99.1 - ASSURED GUARANTY LTDa11-23962_1ex99d1.htm
8-K - 8-K - ASSURED GUARANTY LTDa11-23962_18k.htm

Exhibit 99.2

 

Assured Guaranty Ltd. June 30, 2011 Financial Supplement Table of Contents Page Selected Financial Highlights 1 Consolidated Statements of Operations 2 Net Income (Loss) Reconciliation to Operating Income 3-4 Consolidated Balance Sheets 5 Adjusted Book Value 6 Claims Paying Resources 7 New Business Production 8 Financial Guaranty Gross Par Written 9 New Business Production by Quarter 10 Available-for-Sale Investment Portfolio and Cash 11 Estimated Net Exposure Amortization and Estimated Future Net Premium and Credit Derivative Revenues 12 Expected Amortization of Net Par Outstanding 13 Present Value of Financial Guaranty Insurance Net Expected Loss to be Expensed 14 Financial Guaranty Profile 15-17 Direct Pooled Corporate Obligations Profile 18 Consolidated U.S. RMBS Profile 19 Direct U.S. RMBS Profile 20-21 Direct U.S. Commercial Real Estate Profile 22 Direct U.S. Consumer Receivables Profile 23 Below Investment Grade Exposures 24-28 Largest Exposures by Sector 29-32 Rollforward of Net Expected Loss and Loss Adjustment Expense to be Paid 33 Financial Guaranty Insurance and Credit Derivative U.S. RMBS Representations and Warranties Benefit Development 34 Losses Incurred and Paid 35 Summary Financial and Statistical Data 36 Glossary 37-38 Endnotes Related to Non-GAAP Financial Measures 39-40 This financial supplement should be read in conjunction with documents filed by Assured Guaranty Ltd. (“AGL” and, together with its subsidiaries, “Assured Guaranty” or the “Company”) with the Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”), including its Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2010 and its Quarterly Reports on Form 10-Q for the three months ended March 31, 2011 and six months ended June 30, 2011. Some amounts in this financial supplement may not add due to rounding. Cautionary Statement Regarding Forward-Looking Statements: Any forward-looking statements made in this supplement reflect the current views of Assured Guaranty with respect to future events and financial performance and are made pursuant to the safe harbor provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Such statements involve risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from those set forth in these statements. The Company’s forward looking statements could be affected by many events. These events include (1) rating agency action, including a ratings downgrade or change in outlook at any time of AGL or its subsidiaries and/or of transactions that AGL's subsidiaries have insured, both of which have occurred in the past, or a change in rating criteria; (2) developments in the world’s financial and capital markets that adversely affect issuers’ payment rates, the Company’s loss experience, its ability to cede exposure to reinsurers, its access to capital, its unrealized (losses) gains on derivative financial instruments or its investment returns; (3) changes in the world’s credit markets, segments thereof or general economic conditions; (4) more severe or frequent losses implicating the adequacy of the Company’s expected loss estimates; (5) the impact of market volatility on the mark-to-market of the Company’s contracts written in credit default swap form; (6) reduction in the amount of insurance or reinsurance opportunities available to the Company; (7) deterioration in the financial condition of our reinsurers, the amount and timing of reinsurance recoverables actually received and the risk that reinsurers may dispute amount s owed to us under our reinsurance agreements; (8) the possibility that the Company will not realize insurance loss recoveries or damages expected from originators, sellers, sponsors, underwriters or servicers of residential mortgage-backed securities transactions; (9) increased competition; (10) changes in applicable accounting policies or practices; (11) changes in applicable laws or regulations, including insurance and tax laws; (12) other governmental actions; (13) difficulties with the execution of the Company’s business strategy; (14) contract cancellations; (15) the Company’s dependence on customers; (16) loss of key personnel; (17) adverse technological developments; (18) the effects of mergers, acquisitions and divestitures; (19) natural or man-made catastrophes; (20) other risks and uncertainties that have not been identified at this time; (21) management’s response to these factors; and (22) other risk factors identified in Assured Guaranty’s filings with the SEC. Readers are cautioned not to place undue reliance on these forward looking statements, which speak only as of the dates on which they are made. The Company undertakes no obligation to publicly update or revise any forward looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise, except as required by law. AG_FoCo_logo

 


Assured Guaranty Ltd. Selected Financial Highlights (dollars in millions, except per share amounts) Six Months Ended Three Months Ended June 30, June 30, 2011 2010 2011 2010 Operating income reconciliation: Operating income 136.3$ 172.0$ 385.2$ 284.6$ Plus after-tax adjustments: Realized gains (losses) on investments (2.8) (4.3) (0.9) 2.4 Non-credit impairment unrealized fair value gains (losses) on credit derivatives (70.0) 40.6 (287.4) 271.4 Fair value gains (losses) on committed capital securities 0.4 8.2 0.7 7.4 Foreign exchange gains (losses) on revaluation of premiums receivable 3.8 (19.0) 13.0 (42.0) Effect of consolidating financial guaranty variable interest entities ("VIEs") (125.4) 6.0 (42.9) 1.7 Net income (loss) (57.7)$ 203.5$ 67.7$ 525.5$ Earnings per diluted share: Operating income 0.73$ 0.91$ 2.06$ 1.50$ Plus after-tax adjustments: Realized gains (losses) on investments (0.01) (0.02) - 0.01 Non-credit impairment unrealized fair value gains (losses) on credit (0.38) 0.21 (1.53) 1.43 Fair value gains (losses) on committed capital securities - 0.04 - 0.04 Foreign exchange gains (losses) on revaluation of premiums 0.02 (0.10) 0.07 (0.22) Effect of consolidating financial guaranty VIEs (0.68) 0.03 (0.23) 0.01 Net income (loss) (0.31)$ 1.08$ 0.36$ 2.77$ Effective tax rate on operating income 20.0% 30.4% 25.4% 31.1% Effective tax rate on net income (49.3)% 30.9% 13.7% 28.2% Return on equity ("ROE") calculations 1: ROE, excluding unrealized gain (loss) on investment portfolio (6.1)% 22.7% 3.6% 29.7% Operating ROE 10.8% 15.9% 15.6% 13.4% New Business: Gross par written 4,373$ 8,261$ 6,692$ 15,449$ Present value of new business production ("PVP") 2 51.9$ 89.9$ 104.4$ 168.7$ As of Other information: June 30, 2011 December 31, 2010 Net debt service outstanding 886,768$ 927,143$ Net par outstanding 587,196 617,131 Claims paying resources 3 13,139 12,630 1. Quarterly ROE calculations represent annualized returns. 2. Please refer to the explanation of the non-GAAP financial measures within the Endnotes. 3. See page 7 for additional detail on claims paying resources. Page 1

 


Assured Guaranty Ltd. Consolidated Statements of Operations (unaudited) (dollars and shares in millions, except per share amounts) Six Months Ended Three Months Ended June 30, June 30, 2011 2010 2011 2010 Revenues: Net earned premiums 230.0$ 292.1$ 484.0$ 611.7$ Net investment income 100.8 90.9 197.2 175.2 Net realized investment gains (losses) (5.1) (8.4) (2.3) 1.0 Net change in fair value of credit derivatives: Realized gains and other settlements (10.8) 38.4 24.6 65.1 Net unrealized gains (losses) (48.6) 35.1 (319.7) 287.2 Net change in fair value of credit derivatives (59.4) 73.5 (295.1) 352.3 Fair value gains (losses) on committed capital securities 0.6 12.6 1.1 11.3 Net change in fair value of financial guaranty VIEs (193.7) 0.5 (99.8) (10.1) Other income 28.8 (13.5) 71.0 (26.4) Total revenues 102.0 447.7 356.1 1,115.0 Expenses: Loss and loss adjustment expenses 132.9 71.2 105.9 201.7 Amortization of deferred acquisition costs 9.5 6.9 16.9 15.1 - 2.8 - 6.8 Assured Guaranty Municipal Holdings Inc. ("AGMH") acquisition-related expenses Interest expense 24.7 24.9 49.5 50.0 Other operating expenses 48.5 47.4 105.3 110.0 Total expenses 215.6 153.2 277.6 383.6 Income (loss) before income taxes (113.6) 294.5 78.5 731.4 Provision (benefit) for income taxes (55.9) 91.0 10.8 205.9 Net income (loss) (57.7)$ 203.5$ 67.7$ 525.5$ Less after-tax adjustments: Realized gains (losses) on investments (2.8) (4.3) (0.9) 2.4 Non-credit impairment unrealized fair value gains (losses) on credit derivatives (70.0) 40.6 (287.4) 271.4 Fair value gains (losses) on committed capital securities 0.4 8.2 0.7 7.4 Foreign exchange gains (losses) on revaluation of premiums receivable 3.8 (19.0) 13.0 (42.0) Effect of consolidating financial guaranty VIEs (125.4) 6.0 (42.9) 1.7 Operating income 136.3$ 172.0$ 385.2$ 284.6$ Weighted average shares outstanding Basic shares outstanding 184.2 184.1 184.0 184.2 Diluted shares outstanding 1 184.2 188.8 187.4 189.8 Shares outstanding at the end of period 184.2 183.7 Effect of refundings and accelerations, net Net earned premiums from refundings and accelerations 21.0$ 15.4$ 50.6$ 30.8$ Operating income effect 14.3 9.9 34.1 19.8 Operating income per diluted share effect 0.08 0.05 0.18 0.10 1. Non-GAAP diluted shares outstanding were 187.6 million and 188.9 million for the three months ended June 30, 2011 and 2010, respectively, and 187.4 million and 189.9 million for the six months ended June 30, 2011 and June 30, 2010, respectively. Note: Please refer to the explanation of the non-GAAP financial measures.

 


Assured Guaranty Ltd. Net Income (Loss) Reconciliation to Operating Income (in millions) Three Months Ended Three Months Ended June 30, 2011 June 30, 2010 GAAP Income Statement As Reported Less: Operating Income Adjustments Non-GAAP Operating Income Results GAAP Income Statement As Reported Less: Operating Income Adjustments Non-GAAP Operating Income Results Revenues: Net earned premiums 230.0$ (18.3)$ (1) 248.3$ 292.1$ (15.6)$ (1) 307.7$ Net investment income 100.8 (0.7) (1) 101.5 90.9 - 90.9 Net realized investment gains (losses) (5.1) (5.1) (2) - (8.4) (8.4) (2) - Net change in fair value of credit derivatives: Realized gains and other settlements (10.8) (10.8) - 38.4 38.4 - Net unrealized gains (losses) (48.6) (48.6) - 35.1 35.1 - Credit derivative revenues - (48.4) 48.4 - (51.7) 51.7 Net change in fair value of credit derivatives (59.4) (107.8) (3) 48.4 73.5 21.8 (3) 51.7 Fair value gain (loss) on committed capital securities 0.6 0.6 (4) - 12.6 12.6 (4) - Net change in fair value of financial guaranty VIEs (193.7) (193.7) (1) - 0.5 0.5 (1) - Other income 28.8 29.9 (5) (1.1) (13.5) (15.7) (5) 2.2 Total revenues 102.0 (295.1) 397.1 447.7 (4.8) 452.5 Expenses: Loss expense: Financial guaranty insurance 132.9 (19.6) (1) 152.5 71.2 (24.3) (1) 95.5 Credit derivatives - 8.5 (3) (8.5) - (28.1) (3) 28.1 Amortization of deferred acquisition costs 9.5 - 9.5 6.9 - 6.9 AGMH acquisition-related expenses - - - 2.8 - 2.8 Interest expense 24.7 - 24.7 24.9 - 24.9 Other operating expenses 48.5 - 48.5 47.4 - 47.4 Total expenses 215.6 (11.1) 226.7 153.2 (52.4) 205.6 Income (loss) before income taxes (113.6) (284.0) 170.4 294.5 47.6 246.9 Provision (benefit) for income taxes (55.9) (90.0) (6) 34.1 91.0 16.1 (6) 74.9 Net income (loss) (57.7)$ (194.0)$ 136.3$ 203.5$ 31.5$ 172.0$ 1. Adjustments to eliminate the effects of consolidating financial guaranty VIEs. 2. Adjustments to eliminate realized gains (losses) on investments. 3. Adjustments to eliminate non-economic fair value gains (losses) on credit derivatives and reclassification to revenues and loss expense. 4. Adjustments to eliminate fair value gain (loss) on committed capital securities. 5. Adjustments to eliminate foreign exchange gains (losses) on revaluation of net premiums receivable, reclasses of termination fees on credit derivative contracts and net realized investment gains (losses) on trading portfolio. 6. Tax effect of the above adjustments. Note: Please refer to the endnotes for an explanation of non-GAAP financial measures.

 


Assured Guaranty Ltd. Net Income (Loss) Reconciliation to Operating Income (in millions) Six Months Ended Six Months Ended June 30, 2011 June 30, 2010 GAAP Income Statement As Reported Less: Operating Income Adjustments Non-GAAP Operating Income Results GAAP Income Statement As Reported Less: Operating Income Adjustments Non-GAAP Operating Income Results Revenues: Net earned premiums 484.0$ (37.4)$ (1) 521.4$ 611.7$ (21.6)$ (1) 633.3$ Net investment income 197.2 (0.7) (1) 197.9 175.2 - 175.2 Net realized investment gains (losses) (2.3) (2.3) (2) - 1.0 1.0 (2) - Net change in fair value of credit derivatives: Realized gains and other settlements 24.6 24.6 - 65.1 65.1 - Net unrealized gains (losses) (319.7) (319.7) - 287.2 287.2 - Credit derivative revenues - (109.4) 109.4 - (106.4) 106.4 Net change in fair value of credit derivatives (295.1) (404.5) (3) 109.4 352.3 245.9 (3) 106.4 Fair value gain (loss) on committed capital securities 1.1 1.1 (4) - 11.3 11.3 (4) - Net change in fair value of financial guaranty VIEs (99.8) (99.8) (1) - (10.1) (10.1) (1) - Other income 71.0 42.8 (5) 28.2 (26.4) (46.8) (5) 20.4 Total revenues 356.1 (500.8) 856.9 1,115.0 179.7 935.3 Expenses: Loss expense: Financial guaranty insurance 105.9 (71.5) (1) 177.4 201.7 (34.3) (1) 236.0 Credit derivatives - 8.4 (3) (8.4) - (104.5) (3) 104.5 Amortization of deferred acquisition costs 16.9 - 16.9 15.1 - 15.1 AGMH acquisition-related expenses - - - 6.8 - 6.8 Interest expense 49.5 - 49.5 50.0 - 50.0 Other operating expenses 105.3 - 105.3 110.0 - 110.0 Total expenses 277.6 (63.1) 340.7 383.6 (138.8) 522.4 Income (loss) before income taxes 78.5 (437.7) 516.2 731.4 318.5 412.9 Provision (benefit) for income taxes 10.8 (120.2) (6) 131.0 205.9 77.6 (6) 128.3 Net income (loss) 67.7$ (317.5)$ 385.2$ 525.5$ 240.9$ 284.6$ 1. Adjustments to eliminate the effects of consolidating financial guaranty VIEs. 2. Adjustments to eliminate realized gains (losses) on investments. 3. Adjustments to eliminate non-economic fair value gains (losses) on credit derivatives and reclassification to revenues and loss expense. 4. Adjustments to eliminate fair value gain (loss) on committed capital securities. 5. Adjustments to eliminate foreign exchange gains (losses) on revaluation of net premiums receivable, reclasses of termination fees on credit derivative contracts and net realized investment gains (losses) on trading portfolio. 6. Tax effect of the above adjustments. Note: Please refer to the endnotes for an explanation of non-GAAP financial measures.

 


Assured Guaranty Ltd. Consolidated Balance Sheets (unaudited) (in millions) As of : June 30, December 31, 2011 2010 Assets: Investment portfolio: Fixed maturity securities, available-for-sale, at fair value 9,864.2$ 9,415.3$ Short-term investments, at fair value 1,070.4 1,031.6 Other invested assets 252.1 283.0 Total investment portfolio 11,186.7 10,729.9 Cash 159.2 107.2 Premiums receivable, net of ceding commissions payable 1,059.5 1,167.6 Ceded unearned premium reserve 773.3 821.8 Deferred acquisition costs 232.3 239.8 Reinsurance recoverable on unpaid losses 26.0 22.3 Salvage and subrogation recoverable 307.1 1,032.4 Credit derivative assets 603.9 592.9 Deferred tax asset, net 1,012.0 1,224.0 Current income tax receivable 188.0 - Financial guaranty VIE assets, at fair value 3,492.2 3,657.5 Other assets 198.7 199.2 Total assets 19,238.9$ 19,794.6$ Liabilities and shareholders' equity: Liabilities: Unearned premium reserve 6,315.4$ 6,972.9$ Loss and loss adjustment expense reserve 518.1 563.0 Reinsurance balances payable, net 175.9 274.4 Long-term debt 1,046.4 1,052.9 Credit derivative liabilities 2,788.2 2,465.5 Current income tax payable - 93.0 Financial guaranty VIE liabilities with recourse, at fair value 2,755.1 2,927.0 Financial guaranty VIE liabilities without recourse, at fair value 1,282.5 1,337.2 Other liabilities 407.3 309.9 Total liabilities 15,288.9 15,995.8 Shareholders' equity: Common stock 1.8 1.8 Additional paid-in capital 2,590.7 2,585.4 Retained earnings 1,149.9 1,098.9 Accumulated other comprehensive income 205.6 110.7 Deferred equity compensation 2.0 2.0 Total shareholders' equity 3,950.0 3,798.8 Total liabilities and shareholders' equity 19,238.9$ 19,794.6$ 

 


Assured Guaranty Ltd. Adjusted Book Value (dollars in millions, except per share amounts) As of : June 30, 2011 December 31, 2010 Total Per share Total Per share Reconciliation of shareholders' equity to adjusted book value: Shareholders' equity 3,950.0$ 21.44$ 3,798.8$ 20.67$ Less after-tax adjustments: Effect of consolidating financial guaranty VIEs (308.6) (1.68) (311.8) (1.70) Non-credit impairment unrealized fair value gains (losses) on credit derivatives (1,035.2) (5.62) (764.8) (4.16) Fair value gains (losses) on committed capital securities 12.9 0.07 12.2 0.07 Unrealized gain (loss) on investment portfolio excluding foreign exchange effect 152.3 0.83 100.1 0.54 Operating shareholders' equity 5,128.6$ 27.84$ 4,763.1$ 25.92$ After-tax adjustments: Less: Deferred acquisition costs 238.2 1.29 248.4 1.35 Plus: Net present value of estimated net future credit derivative revenue 353.3 1.92 424.8 2.31 Plus: Net unearned premium reserve on financial guaranty contracts in excess of expected loss to be expensed 3,824.1 20.76 4,059.6 22.09 Adjusted book value 9,067.8$ 49.23$ 8,999.1$ 48.98$ Note: Please refer to the endnotes for an explanation of the non-GAAP financial measures.

 


Assured Guaranty Ltd. Claims Paying Resources (dollars in millions) As of June 30, 2011 Assured Guaranty Corp. Assured Guaranty Re Ltd. 1 Assured Guaranty Municipal Corp. Eliminations 2 Consolidated Claims paying resources Policyholders' surplus 1,066$ 1,165$ 1,309$ (300)$ 3,240$ Contingency reserve 574 - 1,741 - 2,315 Qualified statutory capital 1,640 1,165 3,050 (300) 5,555 Unearned premium reserve 848 1,034 2,255 - 4,137 Loss and loss adjustment expense reserves 3, 4 482 260 491 - 1,233 Total policyholders' surplus and reserves 2,970 2,459 5,796 (300) 10,925 Present value of installment premium 4 431 250 635 - 1,316 Standby line of credit/stop loss 200 200 498 - 898 Total claims paying resources 3,601$ 2,909$ 6,929$ (300)$ 13,139$ Net par outstanding 5 110,653$ 134,030$ 329,605$ (1,704)$ 572,584$ Net debt service outstanding 5 161,460$ 217,224$ 496,122$ (3,950)$ 870,856$ Ratios: Net par outstanding to qualified statutory capital 67:1 115:1 108:1 103:1 Capital ratio 6 98:1 186:1 163:1 157:1 Financial resources ratio 7 45:1 75:1 72:1 66:1 1. Assured Guaranty Re Ltd. ("AG Re") numbers are the Company's estimate of U.S. statutory. 2. In 2009, Assured Guaranty Corp. ("AGC") issued a $300.0 million note payable to Assured Guaranty Municipal Corp. ("AGM"). Net par and net debt service outstanding eliminations represent second-to-pay policies between Assured Guaranty's insurance subsidiaries. 3. Reserves are reduced by approximately $1.5 billion for benefit related to representation and warranty recoverables. 4. Includes financial guaranty insurance and credit derivatives. 5. Net par outstanding and net debt service outstanding are presented on a statutory basis. Under statutory accounting, such amounts would be reduced both when an outstanding issue is legally defeased (i.e., the rights and interests of bondholders and their lien on pledged revenues or other security are terminated in accordance with bond documentation) and when such issue is economically defeased (i.e., bond documentation does not provide a procedure for termination of such rights, interests and lien other than through payment of all outstanding debt in full; funds are deposited in an escrow account for future payment of the debt; and if the funds deposited prove insufficient to pay the outstanding debt in full, the issuer continues to be legally obligated to make payment on such debt). 6. The capital ratio is calculated by dividing net debt service outstanding by qualified statutory capital. 7. The financial resources ratio is calculated by dividing net debt service outstanding by total claims paying resources.

 


Assured Guaranty Ltd. New Business Production (n millions) Three Months Ended Six Months Ended June 30, June 30, 2011 2010 2011 2010 Consolidated new business production analysis: PVP Public finance - U.S.: Primary markets 36.0$ 72.7$ 62.7$ 133.1$ Secondary markets 8.8 8.7 16.1 22.6 Public finance - non-U.S. Primary markets - - - - Secondary markets - 0.7 - 0.7 Structured finance - U.S. 7.1 5.7 18.4 10.2 Structured finance - non-U.S. - 2.1 7.2 2.1 Total PVP 51.9$ 89.9$ 104.4$ 168.7$ Total PVP 51.9$ 89.9$ 104.4$ 168.7$ Less: PVP of credit derivatives - - - - PVP of financial guaranty insurance 51.9 89.9 104.4 168.7 Less: financial guaranty installment premium PVP 5.9 8.0 24.6 12.5 Total: financial guaranty upfront gross written premiums ("GWP") 46.0 81.9 79.8 156.2 Plus: financial guaranty installment adjustment 1 (29.0) 9.8 (74.3) 27.6 Total GWP 17.0$ 91.7$ 5.5$ 183.8$ Consolidated financial guaranty gross par written: Public finance - U.S. Primary markets 3,292$ 6,537$ 5,178$ 12,353$ Secondary markets 356 290 689 662 Public finance - non-U.S. Primary markets - - - - Secondary markets - 34 - 34 Structured finance - U.S. 725 1,400 825 2,400 Structured finance - non-U.S. - - - - Total 4,373$ 8,261$ 6,692$ 15,449$ 1. Represents present value of new business on installment policies plus GWP adjustment on existing installment deals due to changes in assumptions and any cancellations of assumed reinsurance contracts. Note: Please refer to the endnotes for an explanation of the non-GAAP financial measures.

 


Assured Guaranty Ltd. Financial Guaranty Gross Par Written (in millions) Financial Guaranty Gross Par Written by Asset Type Three Months Ended Six Months Ended June 30, 2011 June 30, 2011 Sector: Gross Par Written Avg. Rating Gross Par Written Avg. Rating U.S. public finance: General obligation 2,016$ A 3,406$ A- Tax backed 520 A 832 A Municipal utilities 589 A 749 A Transportation 152 A- 324 A- Higher education 124 A 298 A Healthcare 227 A 232 A Other public finance 20 BBB 26 BBB Total U.S. public finance 3,648 A 5,867 A Non-U.S. public finance: Total non-U.S. public finance - - - - Total public finance 3,648$ A 5,867$ A U.S. structured finance: Consumer receivables 700$ Super Senior 700$ Super Senior Insurance securitizations - - 100 A+ Other structure finance 25 A- 25 A- Total U.S. structured finance 725 AAA 825 AAA Non-U.S. structured finance: Total non-U.S. structured finance - - - - Total structured finance 725$ AAA 825$ AAA Total gross par written 4,373$ A+ 6,692$ A Note: Please refer to the Glossary for a description of select types of Internal Ratings, U.S. public finance, non-U.S. public finance, U.S. structured finance and non-U.S. structured finance obligations that the Company insures and reinsures.

 


Assured Guaranty Ltd. New Business Production by Quarter (in millions) Six Months Six Months 1Q-10 2Q-10 3Q-10 4Q-10 1Q-11 2Q-11 2010 2011 PVP: Public finance - U.S. Primary markets 60.4$ 72.7$ 74.7$ 77.8$ 26.7$ 36.0$ 133.1$ 62.7$ Secondary markets 13.9 8.7 9.8 10.1 7.3 8.8 22.6 16.1 Public finance - non-U.S. Primary markets - - - - - - - - Secondary markets - 0.7 - - - - 0.7 - Structured finance - U.S. 4.5 5.7 3.7 16.3 11.3 7.1 10.2 18.4 Structured finance - non-U.S. - 2.1 0.7 0.9 7.2 - 2.1 7.2 Total PVP 78.8$ 89.9$ 88.9$ 105.1$ 52.5$ 51.9$ 168.7$ 104.4$ Total PVP 78.8$ 89.9$ 88.9$ 105.1$ 52.5$ 51.9$ 168.7$ 104.4$ Less: PVP of credit derivatives - - - - - - - - PVP of financial guaranty insurance 78.8 89.9 88.9 105.1 52.5 51.9 168.7 104.4 Less: financial guaranty installment premium PVP 4.5 8.0 4.9 15.8 18.7 5.9 12.5 24.6 Total: financial guaranty upfront GWP 74.3 81.9 84.0 89.3 33.8 46.0 156.2 79.8 Plus: financial guaranty installment adjustment 1 17.8 9.8 (6.4) (128.4) (45.3) (29.0) 27.6 (74.3) Total financial guaranty GWP 92.1 91.7 77.6 (39.1) (11.5) 17.0 183.8 5.5 Plus: other GWP - - - - - - - - Total GWP 92.1$ 91.7$ 77.6$ (39.1)$ (11.5)$ 17.0$ 183.8$ 5.5$ Consolidated financial guaranty gross par written2: Public finance - U.S. Primary markets 5,816$ 6,537$ 6,785$ 7,057$ 1,886$ 3,292$ 12,353$ 5,178$ Secondary markets 372 290 441 464 333 356 662 689 Public finance - non-U.S. Primary markets - - - - - - - - Secondary markets - 34 - - - - 34 - Structured finance - U.S. 1,000 1,400 200 363 100 725 2,400 825 Structured finance - non-U.S. - - - - - - - - Total 7,188$ 8,261$ 7,426$ 7,884$ 2,319$ 4,373$ 15,449$ 6,692$ 1. Represents present value of new business on installment policies plus GWP adjustment on existing installment deals due to changes in assumptions and any cancellations of assumed reinsurance contracts. 2. Includes committed amount including undrawn revolvers. Note: Please refer to the explanation of the non-GAAP financial measures.

 


Assured Guaranty Ltd. Available-for-Sale Investment Portfolio and Cash As of June 30, 2011 (dollars in millions) Pre-Tax After-Tax Annualized Amortized Book Book Fair Investment Cost Yield Yield Value Income1 Investment portfolio, available-for-sale: Fixed maturity securities: U.S. Treasury securities and obligations of U.S. government agencies 497.2$ 2.75% 2.12% 519.1$ 13.7$ Agency obligations 428.9 3.62% 3.00% 456.2 15.5 Foreign government securities 337.6 3.09% 2.01% 344.7 10.4 Obligations of states and political subdivisions 3,290.3 4.00% 3.77% 3,379.9 131.6 Insured obligations of state and political subdivisions 2 1,748.4 4.76% 4.51% 1,804.3 83.2 Corporate securities 1,045.7 3.58% 2.95% 1,065.5 37.4 Mortgage-backed securities ("MBS") 3: Residential MBS ("RMBS") 4 1,355.8 5.34% 4.32% 1,293.7 72.4 Commercial MBS ("CMBS") 498.8 4.17% 3.52% 516.1 20.8 Asset-backed securities 5 540.4 5.03% 3.50% 560.9 27.2 Total fixed maturity securities 9,743.1 4.23% 3.69% 9,940.4 412.2 Short-term investments 1,070.4 0.10% 0.07% 1,070.4 1.1 Cash6 159.2 - - 159.2 - Total 10,972.7$ 3.82% 3.33% 11,170.0$ 413.3$ Less: financial guaranty VIEs 147.0 8.77% 5.70% 76.2 12.9 Total 10,825.7$ 3.75% 3.30% 11,093.8$ 400.4$ Fair Ratings 7: Value % of Portfolio U.S. Treasury securities and obligations of U.S. government agencies 519.1$ 5.2% Agency obligations 456.2 4.6% AAA/Aaa 3,380.8 34.0% AA/Aa 3,591.7 36.1% A/A 1,509.2 15.2% BBB 38.7 0.4% Below investment grade ("BIG") 8 252.0 2.5% Not rated 8 192.7 2.0% Total fixed maturity securities available-for-sale 9,940.4$ 100.0% Less: financial guaranty VIEs 76.2 Total fixed maturity securities available-for-sale 9,864.2$ Duration of available-for-sale investment portfolio (in years): 4.9 Average ratings of available-for-sale investment portfolio AA 1. Represents annualized investment income based on amortized cost and pre-tax book yields. 2. Reflects obligations of state and local political subdivisions that have been insured by other financial guarantors. The underlying ratings of these bonds, after giving effect to the lower of the rating assigned by Standard & Poor's Rating Services ("S&P") or Moody's Investors Service, Inc. ("Moody's") average AA-. Includes $322.6 million insured by AGC and AGM. 3. Contains no U.S. subprime RMBS. 4. Includes investments purchased for loss mitigation purposes. 5. Contains no collateralized debt obligations ("CDOs") of asset-backed securities ("ABS"). 6. Represents operating cash and is not included in yield calculations. 7. Ratings are represented by the lower of the Moody's and S&P classifications except for bonds purchased for loss mitigation or risk management strategies which use internal ratings classifications. 8. Included in the investment portfolio are securities purchased or obtained as part of loss mitigation or other risk management strategies of $1,276.2 million in par with carrying value of $437.7 million.

 


Assured Guaranty Ltd. Estimated Net Exposure Amortization 1 and Estimated Future Net Premium and Credit Derivative Revenues (in millions) Financial Guaranty Insurance 2 Estimated Future Estimated Net Ending Net Expected PV Future Net Credit Debt Service Debt Service Net Earned Accretion of Premiums Derivative Amortization Outstanding Premiums Discount Earned Revenues 3 Total 2011 (as of June 30) 886,768$ 2011 (July 1 - December 31) 35,558$ 851,210 347.9$ 15.4$ 363.3$ 76.0$ 439.3$ 2012 66,937 784,273 574.7 28.7 603.4 131.0 734.4 2013 61,738 722,535 480.5 26.5 507.0 101.9 608.9 2014 63,682 658,853 424.1 24.6 448.7 72.0 520.7 2015 52,477 606,376 374.9 22.8 397.7 49.8 447.5 2011-2015 280,392 606,376 2,202.1 118.0 2,320.1 430.7 2,750.8 2016-2020 197,463 408,913 1,408.3 91.0 1,499.3 124.9 1,624.2 2021-2025 155,538 253,375 886.0 61.0 947.0 61.2 1,008.2 2026-2030 108,054 145,321 543.2 38.5 581.7 43.8 625.5 After 2030 145,321 - 581.9 32.9 614.8 51.2 666.0 Total 886,768$ 5,621.5$ 341.4$ 5,962.9$ 711.8$ 6,674.7$ 1. Represents the future expected amortization of current debt service outstanding (principal and interest), assuming no advance refundings, as of June 30, 2011. Actual amortization differs from expected maturities because borrowers may have the right to call or prepay guaranteed obligations and because of management's assumptions on structured finance amortization. 2. See page 14 for “Present Value of Financial Guaranty Insurance Net Expected Loss to be Expensed.” 3. Excludes contracts with credit impairment.

 


Assured Guaranty Ltd. Expected Amortization of Net Par Outstanding (in millions) Structured Finance Estimated Net Par Amortization U.S. and Other Estimated Non-U.S. Pooled U.S. Financial Structured Ending Net Par Corporate RMBS Products 1 Finance Total Outstanding 2011 (as of June 30) 132,696$ 2011 (July 1 - December 31) 6,509$ 2,549$ 169$ 2,280$ 11,507$ 121,189 2012 12,801 4,150 1,058 3,817 21,826 99,363 2013 14,533 3,167 822 1,662 20,184 79,179 2014 18,818 2,265 630 2,045 23,758 55,421 2015 9,342 1,907 341 2,974 14,564 40,857 2011-2015 62,003 14,038 3,020 12,778 91,839 40,857 2016-2020 13,726 5,305 466 3,513 23,010 17,847 2021-2025 2,349 2,211 601 1,881 7,042 10,805 2026-2030 441 800 570 510 2,321 8,484 After 2030 3,303 912 1,257 3,012 8,484 - Total structured finance 81,822$ 23,266$ 5,914$ 21,694$ 132,696$ Public Finance Estimated Estimated Net Par Ending Net Par Amortization Outstanding 2011 (as of June 30) 454,500$ 2011 (July 1 - December 31) 11,830$ 442,670 2012 22,219 420,451 2013 20,070 400,381 2014 19,808 380,573 2015 19,046 361,527 2011-2015 92,973 361,527 2016-2020 95,751 265,776 2021-2025 93,244 172,532 2026-2030 71,053 101,479 After 2030 101,479 - Total public finance 454,500$ Net par outstanding (end of period): 1Q-10 2Q-10 3Q-10 4Q-10 1Q-11 2Q-11 Public finance - U.S. 430,112$ 429,874$ 426,584$ 426,996$ 417,367$ 413,274$ Public finance - non-U.S. 41,406 39,573 42,125 40,743 41,828 41,226 Structured finance - U.S. 133,544 125,955 125,679 118,756 113,108 103,978 Structured finance - non-U.S. 34,403 32,112 33,684 30,636 29,984 28,718 Total 639,465$ 627,514$ 628,072$ 617,131$ 602,287$ 587,196$ 1. See Glossary for description of financial products.

 


Assured Guaranty Ltd. Present Value ("PV") of Financial Guaranty Insurance Net Expected Loss to be Expensed As of June 30, 2011 (in millions) Net Expected Loss to be Expensed 1 Operating 2 GAAP 2 2011 (July 1 - September 30) 60.2$ 51.1$ 2011 (October 1 - December 31) 48.6 40.4 2012 134.9 109.2 2013 87.1 64.5 2014 67.4 47.3 2015 57.6 37.6 2011-2015 455.8 350.1 2016-2020 186.7 121.5 2021-2025 90.3 65.9 2026-2030 60.7 33.2 After 2030 55.9 18.4 Total expected PV of net expected loss to be expensed 849.4 589.1 Discount 453.3 442.1 Total future value 1,302.7$ 1,031.2$ 1. The expected present value of net loss to be expensed is discounted by weighted-average risk free rates ranging from 0.0% to 5.0%. 2. Operating income includes net expected loss to be expensed on consolidated VIEs. Losses on consolidated VIEs are eliminated for GAAP.

 


Assured Guaranty Ltd. Financial Guaranty Profile (1 of 3) (in millions) Net Par Outstanding and Average Rating by Asset Type December 31, 2010 June 30, 2011 Net Par Outstanding Avg. Rating Net Par Outstanding Avg. Rating U.S. public finance: General obligation 176,157$ A+ 181,799$ A+ Tax backed 80,770 A+ 83,403 A+ Municipal utilities 67,777 A 70,066 A Transportation 36,061 A 36,973 A Healthcare 20,342 A 21,592 A Higher education 15,548 A+ 15,687 A+ Housing 6,146 AA- 6,562 AA- Infrastructure finance 4,170 BBB+ 4,092 BBB+ Investor-owned utilities 1,217 A- 1,505 A- Other public finance 5,086 A- 5,317 A- Total U.S. public finance 413,274 A+ 426,996 A+ Non-U.S. public finance: Infrastructure finance 16,107 BBB 15,973 BBB Regulated utilities 13,884 BBB+ 13,978 BBB+ Pooled infrastructure 3,569 AA 3,432 AA Other public finance 7,666 A+ 7,360 AA- Total non-U.S. public finance 41,226 A- 40,743 A- Total public finance 454,500$ A 467,739$ A U.S. structured finance: Pooled corporate obligations 59,746$ AAA 67,384$ AAA RMBS 23,266 BB 25,130 BB CMBS and other commercial real estate related exposures 4,888 AAA 7,084 AAA Financial products 5,914 AA- 6,831 AA- Consumer receivables 5,057 A+ 6,073 AA- Commercial receivables 1,904 BBB+ 2,139 BBB+ Insurance securitizations 1,643 A+ 1,584 A+ Structured credit 434 B 1,729 BBB Other structured finance 1,126 A- 802 A- Total U.S. structured finance 103,978 AA- 118,756 AA- Non-U.S. structured finance: Pooled corporate obligations 22,076 AAA 22,610 AAA RMBS 2,609 AA 3,394 AA+ Commercial receivables 1,372 A- 1,729 A- Structured credit 1,130 BBB 1,267 BBB Insurance securitizations 964 CCC- 964 CCC- CMBS and other commercial real estate related exposures 188 AAA 251 AAA Other structured finance 379 Super Senior 421 Super Senior Total non-U.S. structured finance 28,718 AA+ 30,636 AA+ Total structured finance 132,696$ AA- 149,392$ AA Total net par outstanding 587,196$ A+ 617,131$ A+ Note: Please refer to the Glossary for a description of select types of internal rating, financial products, U.S. public finance, non-U.S. public finance, U.S. structured finance and non-U.S. structured finance obligations that the Company insures and reinsures.

 


Assured Guaranty Ltd. Financial Guaranty Profile (2 of 3) As of June 30, 2011 (dollars in millions) Distribution by Ratings of Financial Guaranty Portfolio Structured Finance - Non-U.S. Consolidated Structured Finance - U.S. Public Finance - U.S. Public Finance - Non-U.S. Ratings: Net Par Outstanding % Net Par Outstanding % Net Par Outstanding % Net Par Outstanding % Net Par Outstanding % Super senior -$ 0.0% 1,507$ 3.7% 19,957$ 19.2% 7,683$ 26.8% 29,147$ 5.0% AAA 5,078 1.2% 1,379 3.3% 38,175 36.7% 12,722 44.3% 57,354 9.8% AA 151,571 36.7% 1,145 2.8% 14,236 13.7% 1,606 5.6% 168,558 28.7% A 211,736 51.2% 12,517 30.4% 5,721 5.5% 1,610 5.6% 231,584 39.4% BBB 41,939 10.2% 22,318 54.1% 5,248 5.0% 3,273 11.3% 72,778 12.4% BIG 2,950 0.7% 2,360 5.7% 20,641 19.9% 1,824 6.4% 27,775 4.7% Total net par outstanding 413,274$ 100.0% 41,226$ 100.0% 103,978$ 100.0% 28,718$ 100.0% 587,196$ 100.0% Note: Please refer to the Gloassary for a description of ratings.

 


Assured Guaranty Ltd. Financial Guaranty Profile (3 of 3) As of June 30, 2011 (dollars in millions) Geographic Distribution of Financial Guaranty Portfolio U.S.: Net Par Public finance: Outstanding % of Total California 59,272$ 10.1% New York 33,562 5.7% Pennsylvania 30,822 5.2% Texas 30,232 5.2% Florida 25,973 4.4% Illinois 25,698 4.4% New Jersey 17,540 3.0% Michigan 16,091 2.7% Massachusetts 11,801 2.0% Other states 162,283 27.7% Total public finance 413,274 70.4% Structured finance (multiple states) 103,978 17.7% Total U.S. 517,252 88.1% Non-U.S.: United Kingdom 25,823 4.4% Australia 9,007 1.5% Canada 4,354 0.7% France 2,740 0.5% Italy 2,389 0.4% Other 25,631 4.4% Total non-U.S. 69,944 11.9% Total net par outstanding 587,196$ 100.0%

 


Assured Guaranty Ltd. Direct Pooled Corporate Obligations Profile As of June 30, 2011 (dollars in millions) Distribution of Direct Pooled Corporate Obligations by Ratings Ratings: Net Par Outstanding % of Total Avg. Initial Credit Enhancement Avg. Current Credit Enhancement Super Senior 22,553$ 28.1% 31.2% 29.8% AAA 45,490 56.6% 28.3% 29.0% AA 4,806 6.0% 43.5% 39.1% A 545 0.7% 47.0% 40.3% BBB 2,894 3.6% 34.7% 28.4% BIG 4,102 5.0% 38.7% 19.2% Total exposures 80,390$ 100.0% 30.9% 29.4% Distribution of Direct Pooled Corporate Obligations by Asset Class Asset class: Net Par Outstanding % of Total Avg. Initial Credit Enhancement Avg. Current Credit Enhancement Avg. Rating CBOs/CLOs 46,438$ 57.8% 31.3% 30.9% AAA Synthetic investment grade pooled corporates 14,496 18.0% 19.4% 18.0% AAA Synthetic high yield pooled corporates 6,600 8.2% 39.6% 34.6% AAA Market value CDOs of corporates 5,238 6.5% 33.0% 41.4% AAA Trust preferred 1 Banks and insurance 3,410 4.2% 46.9% 32.8% BBB- U.S. mortgage and real estate investment trusts 2,328 2.9% 50.0% 31.9% BB European mortgage and real estate investment trusts 988 1.2% 36.7% 33.8% BBB- Other pooled corporates 892 1.2% 24.7% 9.7% BBB- Total exposures 80,390$ 100.0% 30.9% 29.4% AAA 1. Prior to fourth quarter 2010, the ratio of average current credit enhancement for Trust Preferred Pooled Corporate Obligations was based on the value of the collateral as reported by the trustees, which for non-performing or low-rated collateral varied by transaction in accordance with the individual transaction documents. Beginning fourth quarter 2010, Assured Guaranty has made the measure consistent across transactions, assigning a value of 100% of the par to all performing securities, applying a standard haircut for restructured performing collateral, assigning recovery assumptions for defaulted collateral by collateral type, and making additional negative adjustments for transactions where the notional amount of interest rate hedges materially exceeds the amount of performing collateral requiring hedges. Note: Please refer to the Glossary for a description of ratings, average credit enhancement and CBOs/CLOs.

 


Assured Guaranty Ltd. Consolidated U.S. RMBS Profile As of June 30, 2011 (dollars in millions) Distribution of U.S. RMBS by Rating and Type of Exposure Ratings: Prime First Lien Closed End Seconds HELOC Alt-A First Lien Option ARMs Subprime First Lien Net Interest Margin Total Net Par Outstanding AAA 8$ 0$ 402$ 89$ -$ 2,053$ -$ 2,552$ AA 22 28 240 263 26 1,899 0 2,477 A 17 1 23 39 111 1,157 - 1,347 BBB 131 - 12 329 110 450 0 1,033 BIG 608 1,058 3,604 5,011 2,562 2,967 46 15,857 Total exposures 786$ 1,087$ 4,281$ 5,731$ 2,809$ 8,526$ 46$ 23,266$ Distribution of U.S. RMBS by Year Insured 1 and Type of Exposure Year insured: Prime First Lien Closed End Seconds HELOC Alt-A First Lien Option ARMs Subprime First Lien Net Interest Margin Total Net Par Outstanding 2004 and prior 48$ 1$ 324$ 123$ 47$ 1,566$ 0$ 2,109$ 2005 179 - 953 661 130 342 0 2,265 2006 130 451 1,296 452 683 3,626 0 6,638 2007 429 634 1,708 2,896 1,849 2,895 46 10,457 2008 - - - 1,599 101 98 - 1,797 Total exposures 786$ 1,087$ 4,281$ 5,731$ 2,809$ 8,526$ 46$ 23,266$ Distribution of U.S. RMBS by Rating and Year Insured AAA AA A BBB BIG Year insured: Rated Rated Rated Rated Rated Total 2004 and prior 1,380$ 105$ 104$ 154$ 365$ 2,109$ 2005 146 150 40 96 1,833 2,265 2006 730 1,663 1,065 210 2,969 6,638 2007 278 411 38 572 9,159 10,457 2008 17 148 101 - 1,531 1,797 Total exposures 2,552$ 2,477$ 1,347$ 1,033$ 15,857$ 23,266$ % of total 11.0% 10.6% 5.8% 4.4% 68.2% 100.0% 1. Assured Guaranty has not insured any U.S. RMBS transactions since 2008. Note: Please refer to the Glossary for a description of ratings, prime first lien and HELOC.

 


Assured Guaranty Ltd. Direct U.S. RMBS Profile (1 of 2) As of June 30, 2011 (dollars in millions) Distribution of Direct U.S. RMBS Insured January 1, 2005 or Later by Exposure Type, Average Pool Factor, Subordination, Cumulative Losses and 60+ Day Delinquencies U.S. Prime First Lien Year insured: Net Par Outstanding Pool Factor Subordination Cumulative Losses 60+ Day Delinquencies Number of Transactions 2005 175$ 45.2% 5.3% 1.2% 9.4% 6 2006 130 61.5% 8.3% 0.0% 16.2% 1 2007 429 57.1% 9.5% 3.2% 15.4% 1 2008 - - - - - - 735$ 55.1% 8.3% 2.1% 14.1% 8 U.S. Closed End Seconds Year insured: Net Par Outstanding Pool Factor Subordination Cumulative Losses 60+ Day Delinquencies Number of Transactions 2005 -$ - - - - - 2006 440 17.4% - 59.0% 11.1% 2 2007 634 21.2% - 64.5% 10.5% 10 2008 - - - - - - 1,074$ 19.7% - 62.3% 10.7% 12 U.S. HELOC Year insured: Net Par Outstanding Pool Factor Subordination Cumulative Losses 60+ Day Delinquencies Number of Transactions 2005 900$ 19.0% 2.7% 14.3% 12.0% 6 2006 1,273 30.9% 2.1% 31.9% 10.6% 7 2007 1,708 45.9% 3.2% 28.0% 6.1% 9 2008 - - - - - - 3,881$ 34.8% 2.7% 26.1% 9.0% 22 U.S. Alt-A First Lien Year insured: Net Par Outstanding Pool Factor Subordination Cumulative Losses 60+ Day Delinquencies Number of Transactions 2005 659$ 37.2% 10.6% 5.4% 18.6% 21 2006 452 43.9% 0.0% 15.5% 37.1% 7 2007 2,896 55.3% 5.7% 11.1% 32.7% 12 2008 1,599 51.7% 24.3% 11.0% 30.5% 5 5,606$ 51.2% 11.1% 10.8% 30.8% 45 Note: Please refer to the Glossary for a description of net par outstanding, average pool factor, subordination, cumulative losses, 60+ days delinquencies, and U.S. prime first lien.

 


Assured Guaranty Ltd. Direct U.S. RMBS Profile (2 of 2) As of June 30, 2011 (dollars in millions) Distribution of Direct U.S. RMBS Insured January 1, 2005 or Later by Exposure Type, Average Pool Factor, Subordination, Cumulative Losses and 60+ Day Delinquencies U.S. Option ARMs Year insured: Net Par Outstanding Pool Factor Subordination Cumulative Losses 60+ Day Delinquencies Number of Transactions 2005 121$ 26.7% 8.4% 8.7% 38.4% 4 2006 677 51.1% 3.2% 12.8% 53.2% 7 2007 1,849 55.4% 4.2% 13.9% 40.8% 11 2008 101 58.0% 49.3% 9.5% 37.6% 1 2,747$ 53.2% 5.8% 13.2% 43.6% 23 U.S. Subprime First Lien Year insured: Net Par Outstanding Pool Factor Subordination Cumulative Losses 60+ Day Delinquencies Number of Transactions 2005 333$ 35.7% 45.3% 5.7% 39.7% 7 2006 3,619 23.9% 61.6% 15.1% 38.6% 4 2007 2,895 55.6% 24.7% 15.8% 47.3% 13 2008 81 67.9% 30.5% 10.1% 25.9% 1 6,927$ 38.2% 45.0% 14.9% 42.1% 25 Note: Please refer to the Glossary for a description of net par outstanding, average pool factor, subordination, cumulative losses, and 60+ days delinquencies.

 


Assured Guaranty Ltd. Direct U.S. Commercial Real Estate Profile As of June 30, 2011 (dollars in millions) Distribution of Direct U.S. CMBS Insured January 1, 2005 or Later by Exposure Type, Internal Rating, Average Pool Factor, Subordination, Cumulative Losses and 60+ Day Delinquencies U.S. CMBS Rating: Net Par Outstanding Pool Factor Subordination Cumulative Losses 60+ Day Delinquencies Number of Transactions Super senior 3,226$ 84.3% 35.4% 1.2% 7.7% 149 AAA 197 76.6% 26.4% 1.0% 10.9% 10 AA - - - - - - A 191 55.0% 13.7% 1.4% 4.6% 1 BBB - - - - - - BIG - - - - - - Total exposures 3,614$ 82.3% 33.7% 1.2% 7.7% 160 CDOs of U.S. Commercial Real Estate and CMBS1 Net Par Outstanding % of Total Avg. Initial Credit Enhancement Avg. Current Credit Enhancement CDOs of commercial real estate 664$ 74.6% 49.8% 51.6% CDOs of CMBS2 226 25.4% 31.6% 59.0% Total exposures 890$ 100.0% 45.1% 53.4% 1. Represents other U.S. Commercial Real Estate not included in the table above. 2. Relates to vintages 2003 and prior.

 


Assured Guaranty Ltd. Direct U.S. Consumer Receivables Profile As of June 30, 2011 (dollars in millions) Distribution of Direct U.S. Consumer Receivables by Rating Rating: Credit Cards Student Loans Manufactured Housing Auto Total Net Par Outstanding Super senior 400$ -$ -$ 700$ 1,100$ AAA - 392 - 8 400 AA - - 72 810 882 A - - - 449 449 BBB - 869 43 55 967 BIG - - 153 - 153 Total exposures 400$ 1,261$ 268$ 2,022$ 3,951$ Average rating Super Senior A BBB AA+ AA Avg. initial credit enhancement 62.2% 7.2% 27.5% 29.2% 25.4% Avg. current credit enhancement 62.2% 10.4% 25.7% 44.9% 34.4% Note: Please refer to the Glossary for a description of ratings and average credit enhancement.

 


Assured Guaranty Ltd. Below Investment Grade Exposures (1 of 5) (in millions) BIG Exposures by Asset Exposure Type BIG Net Par Outstanding 1 June 30, 2011 December 31, 2010 U.S. public finance: General obligation 734$ 882$ Municipal utilities 604 541 Tax backed 443 430 Healthcare 267 333 Transportation 160 162 Infrastructure finance 61 61 Higher education 21 21 Housing 1 8 Other public finance 659 721 Total U.S. public finance 2,950 3,159 Non-U.S. public finance: Infrastructure finance 1,920 1,506 Regulated utilities 9 289 Other public finance 431 - Total non-U.S. public finance 2,360 1,795 Total public finance 5,310$ 4,954$ U.S. structured finance: RMBS 15,857$ 16,355$ Pooled corporate obligations 3,521 2,976 Consumer receivables 483 425 Structured credit 335 399 Commercial receivables 282 240 Other structured finance 163 163 Total U.S. structured finance 20,641 20,558 Non-U.S. structured finance: Insurance securitizations 923 923 Pooled corporate obligations 885 355 Commercial receivables 16 16 Total non-U.S. structured finance 1,824 1,294 Total structured finance 22,465$ 21,852$ Total BIG net par outstanding 27,775$ 26,806$ 1. Securities purchased for loss mitigation purposes represented $1,029.3 million and $489.3 million of gross par outstanding as of June 30, 2011 and December 31, 2010, respectively. In addition, under the terms of certain credit derivative contracts, the Company has obtained the underlying collateral of transactions and recorded it in invested assets in the consolidated balance sheets. Such amounts totaled $246.9 million and $251.8 million in gross par outstanding as of June 30, 2011 and December 31, 2010, respectively. Note: Please refer to the Glossary for a description of select types of U.S. public finance, non-U.S. public finance, U.S. structured finance and non-U.S. structured finance obligations that the Company insures and reinsures.

 


Assured Guaranty Ltd. Below Investment Grade Exposures (2 of 5) (in millions) Net Par Outstanding by BIG Category 1 Financial Guaranty Insurance and Credit Derivatives Surveillance Categories June 30, 2011 2 December 31, 2010 2 Category 1 U.S. public finance $ 1,881 $ 1,958 Non-U.S. public finance 2,360 1,794 U.S. structured finance 5,058 4,717 Non-U.S. structured finance 808 293 Total Category 1 10,107 8,762 Category 2 U.S. public finance 204 282 Non-U.S. public finance - 1 U.S. structured finance 7,593 8,818 Non-U.S. structured finance 18 2 Total Category 2 7,815 9,103 Category 3 U.S. public finance 865 919 Non-U.S. public finance - - U.S. structured finance 7,990 7,023 Non-U.S. structured finance 998 999 Total Category 3 9,853 8,941 BIG Total $ 27,775 $ 26,806 1. Assured Guaranty's surveillance department is responsible for monitoring our portfolio of credits and maintains a list of BIG credits. During the fourth quarter of 2010 the Company revised the definitions of the three BIG surveillance categories to more closely track its view of whether a transaction is expected to experience a loss, without regard to whether the probability weighted expected loss exceeded the unearned premium reserve. While the revisions resulted in a number of transactions moving between BIG categories, the Company estimates that the revisions had a relatively small impact on the totals in each category. BIG Category 1: Below investment grade transactions showing sufficient deterioration to make lifetime losses possible, but for which none are currently expected. Transactions on which claims have been paid but are expected to be fully reimbursed (other than investment grade transactions on which only liquidity claims have been paid) are in this category. BIG Category 2: Below investment grade transactions for which lifetime losses are expected but for which no claims (other than liquidity claims) have yet been paid. BIG Category 3: Below investment grade transactions for which lifetime losses are expected and on which claims (other than liquidity claims) have been paid. Transactions remain in this category when claims have been paid and only a recoverable remains. 2. Securities purchased for loss mitigation purposes represented $1,029.3 million and $489.3 million of gross par outstanding as of June 30, 2011 and December 31, 2010, respectively. In addition, under the terms of certain credit derivative contracts, the Company has obtained the underlying collateral of transactions and recorded it in invested assets in the consolidated balance sheets. Such amounts totaled $246.9 million and $251.8 million in gross par outstanding as of June 30, 2011 and December 31, 2010, respectively.

 


Assured Guaranty Ltd. Below Investment Grade Exposures (3 of 5) As of June 30, 2011 (dollars in millions) Public Finance BIG Exposures Greater Than $50 Million Net Par Internal Name or description Outstanding Rating U.S. public finance: Jefferson County Alabama Sewer 496$ D Detroit (City of) Michigan 385 BB Jefferson County Alabama School Sales Tax Limited Obligation 176 BB San Joaquin Hills California Transportation 160 BB Guaranteed Student Loan Transaction 158 B Detroit (City of) School District Michigan 152 BB Guaranteed Student Loan Transaction 136 CCC St. Barnabas Health System - New Jersey 133 BB Orlando Tourist Development Tax - Florida 118 BB+ Mashantucket Pequot Tribe, Connecticut 107 B Harrisburg (City of) Pennsylvania General Obligation 93 B- Puerto Rico Public Finance Corporation - Commonwealth Appropriation 88 BB+ Xenia Rural Water District, Iowa 82 B Guaranteed Student Loan Transaction 74 B Guaranteed Student Loan Transaction 60 B Total 2,418$ Non-U.S. public finance: Reliance Rail Financial Pty. Limited 717 BB M6 Duna Autopalya Koncesszios Zartkoruen Mukodo Reszvenytarsasag 477 BB+ Cross City Tunnel Motorway Finance Limited 319 BB Hellenic Republic 315 B Aeroporti Di Roma (ADR) Romulus Finance S.R.L. (Rome Airport) 273 BB Alte Liebe I Limited (Wind Farm) 108 BB Metropolitano de Porto Lease and Sublease of Railroad Equipment 57 BB+ Total 2,266$ Total 4,684$ Note: Please refer to the Glossary for a description of ratings.

 


Assured Guaranty Ltd. Below Investment Grade Exposures (4 of 5) As of June 30, 2011 (dollars in millions) Structured Finance BIG Exposures Greater Than $50 Million Net Par Internal Current Credit 60+ Day Name or description Outstanding Rating Enhancement Delinquencies U.S. structured finance: U.S. RMBS: Deutsche Alt-A Securities Mortgage Loan 2007-2 841$ CCC 0.0% 29.3% MABS 2007-NCW 569 B 31.7% 64.8% Countrywide HELOC 2006-I 478 CCC 0.0% 7.6% MASTR 2007-3 452 CCC 0.0% 54.6% Private Residential Mortgage Transaction 430 B 18.8% 30.7% Mortgage IT Securities Corp. Mortgage Loan 2007-2 429 B 9.5% 15.4% Private Residential Mortgage Transaction 427 BB 20.3% 29.4% Countrywide HELOC 2006-F (includes $33.7 million repurchased) 1 395 CCC 0.0% 17.9% Deutsche Alt-A Securities Mortgage Loan 2007-3 385 B 4.9% 22.7% Private Residential Mortgage Transaction 383 CCC 21.6% 32.3% Option One 2007-FXD2 380 CCC 16.4% 31.2% Private Residential Mortgage Transaction 374 BB 19.8% 27.4% CWALT Alternative Loan Trust 2007-HY9 346 B 4.9% 46.4% Private Residential Mortgage Transaction 345 CCC 11.2% 35.0% Nomura Asset Accept. Corp. 2007-1 (includes $0.8 million repurchased) 1 340 CCC 0.0% 37.5% AAA Trust 2007-2 309 CCC 30.1% 43.8% Harborview 2006-12 303 B 7.2% 59.7% Countrywide Home Equity Loan Trust 2007-D 296 CCC 0.0% 8.3% Countrywide Home Equity Loan Trust 2005-J 296 CCC 0.0% 17.0% Countrywide HELOC 2005-D 279 CCC 0.0% 12.3% Countrywide 2007-13 264 B 30.6% 56.2% Countrywide HELOC 2007-A (includes $23.0 million repurchased) 1 250 CCC 0.0% 7.8% Terwin Mortgage Trust 2006-12SL (includes $257.5 million repurchased) 1 249 B 0.0% 12.2% GMACM 2004-HE3 223 CCC 0.0% 3.7% MARM 2007-1 (FKA MASTR 2007-OA1) (includes $1.1 million repurchased) 1 223 CCC 0.0% 34.0% Countrywide HELOC 2007-B 221 CCC 0.0% 6.3% CWABS 2007-4 220 B 20.9% 44.9% Private Residential Mortgage Transaction 220 BB 28.5% 35.0% Terwin Mortgage Trust 2007-1SL (includes $197.4 million repurchased) 1 204 B 0.0% 10.5% FHABS 2007-HE1 HELOC 192 BB 0.0% 3.2% Terwin Mortgage Trust 2006-10SL (includes $96.3 million repurchased) 1 192 CCC 0.0% 9.6% Soundview 2007-WMC1 191 CCC 7.5% 70.2% Indymac 2007-H1 HELOC 180 CCC 0.0% 8.7% Harborview 2007-1 175 CCC 10.6% 59.8% FHABS 2006-HE2 HELOC 169 BB 0.0% 4.9% Harborview 2006-1 160 CCC 0.0% 62.3% New Century 2005-A 160 B 20.5% 33.4% Renaissance (DELTA) 2007-3 147 CCC 21.2% 33.5% CSAB 2006-3 134 CCC 0.0% 44.0% Countrywide HELOC 2005-C 131 CCC 0.0% 11.3% CWALT 2007-OA10 (includes $40.5 million repurchased) 1 125 CCC 10.5% 51.2% Lehman Excess Trust 2007-16N 118 CCC 5.9% 44.6% Taylor Bean & Whitaker 2007-2 (includes $28.9 million repurchased) 1 102 CCC 0.0% 27.2% Flagstar HELOC 2005-1 99 BB 21.2% 4.8% Flagstar HELOC 2006-2 99 CCC 23.5% 6.6% ACE Home Equity Loan Trust 2007-SL3 91 BB 0.0% 7.8% American Home Mortgage Assets Trust 2007-4 91 CCC 0.0% 33.7% Deutsche Alt-B 2006-AB1 88 CCC 0.0% 27.3% Harborview 2006-10 88 CCC 0.0% 27.3% CSAB 2006-2 (includes $11.5 million repurchased) 1 87 CCC 0.0% 37.5% NAAC 2007-S2 84 CCC 0.0% 12.0% Soundview Home Loan Trust 2008-1 81 BB 30.5% 25.9% MASTR Asset Backed Securities Trust 2005-NC2 80 CCC 10.7% 34.4% Private Residential Mortgage Transaction 80 B 24.1% 31.7% Countrywide ALT-A 2005-22T 76 B 5.8% 27.0% IndyMac IMSC Mortgage Loan Trust 2007-HOA1 73 CCC 0.0% 36.3% Terwin Mortgage Trust 2005-16HE 66 B 6.2% 25.4% CSMC 2007-3 66 CCC 0.0% 32.1% Countrywide HELOC 2006-H (includes $13.4 million repurchased) 1 65 CCC 0.0% 17.3% ACE 2007-SL1 62 BB 0.0% 11.7% Terwin Mortgage Trust 2007-6ALT (includes $30.2 million repurchased) 1 61 CCC 0.0% 52.7% CSAB Mortgage-Backed Trust 2007-1 (includes $11.3 million repurchased) 1 57 CCC 0.0% 32.9% Terwin Mortgage Trust 2005-14HE 52 B 7.0% 21.7% Deutsche Alt-B 2006-AB4 50 CCC 0.0% 33.2% ACE 2006-GP1 50 CCC 0.0% 19.1% Total U.S. RMBS 13,953$ 1. Represents amounts of gross par which were purchased or obtained as part of loss mitigation strategies and recorded as part of the investment portfolio. Note: Please refer to the Glossary for a description of ratings and 60+ day delinquencies.

 


Assured Guaranty Ltd. Below Investment Grade Exposures (5 of 5) As of June 30, 2011 (dollars in millions) Structured Finance BIG Exposures Greater Than $50 Million (continued) Net Par Internal Current Credit Name or description Outstanding Rating Enhancement U.S. structured finance: Other: Taberna Preferred Funding IV, Ltd 292$ CCC 24.5% Taberna Preferred Funding III, Ltd 287 CCC 15.4% Alesco Preferred Funding XVI, Ltd 257 B 7.3% Taberna Preferred Funding II, Ltd 233 CCC 21.6% Attentus CDO I, Ltd 227 BB 31.8% Trapeza CDO XI 217 BB- 28.3% Weinstein Film Securitization 207 CCC N/A Alesco Preferred Funding XVII, Ltd 203 B 16.2% Attentus CDO II, Ltd 189 BB 28.1% Trapeza CDO X, Ltd 165 BB- 29.0% Taberna Preferred Funding VI, Ltd 152 CCC 21.8% Alesco Preferred Funding VI 149 BB+ 30.1% Preferred Term Securities XIX, Ltd 148 BB+ 32.7% US Capital Funding IV, LTD 147 B- 17.0% NRG PEAKER (includes $231.1 million repurchased) 1 2 143 CCC N/A GlenEagles Funding LTD (1st issue) 137 BB N/A Alesco Preferred Funding V 130 BB+ 34.2% Private Student Loan Transaction 123 CCC N/A Preferred Term Securities XVI, Ltd 120 B 20.6% Synthetic High Yield Pooled Corporate CDO 113 CCC 7.7% Private Student Loan Transaction 99 CCC N/A Conseco Finance Manufactured Housing Series 2001-2 91 BB 16.3% Greenpoint 2000-4 68 BB 11.3% Private Other Non-Municipal Transaction 65 CCC N/A America West Airlines EETC 63 BB N/A CAPCO - Excess SIPC Excess of Loss Reinsurance 63 BB N/A Preferred Term Securities XVIII, Ltd 60 BB 33.9% Preferred Term Securities XVII, Ltd 56 BB+ 29.4% Preferred Term Securities XX, Ltd 53 BB 28.0% Private Consumer Receivable Transaction 51 BB N/A Total other 4,308$ Total 18,261$ Non-U.S. structured finance: Ballantyne Re, PLC (includes $106.4 million repurchased) 1 500$ CC N/A Orkney Re II, Plc 423 CCC N/A GlenEagles Funding LTD 224 BB N/A Private Pooled Corporate Transaction 82 BB N/A Private Pooled Corporate Transaction 80 BB N/A Private Pooled Corporate Transaction 77 BB N/A Synthetic High Yield Pooled Corporate CDO 76 CCC 7.7% Private Pooled Corporate Transaction 64 BB N/A Private Pooled Corporate Transaction 56 BB N/A Total 1,582$ Total 19,843$ 1. Represents amounts of gross par which were purchased or obtained as part of loss mitigation strategies and recorded as part of the investment portfolio. 2. Net par shown is net of $96 million of ceded par. The Company owns 100% of the collateral in the insured transaction. Note: Please refer to the Glossary for a description of ratings.

 


Assured Guaranty Ltd. Largest Exposures by Sector (1 of 4) As of June 30, 2011 (in millions) 50 Largest U.S. Public Finance Exposures Net Par Internal Credit name: Outstanding Rating New Jersey (State of) 4,391$ AA- California (State of) 3,526 BBB+ Massachusetts (Commonwealth of) 3,137 AA New York (City of) New York 3,066 AA New York (State of) 2,773 AA- Puerto Rico (Commonwealth of) 2,590 BBB- Chicago (City of) Illinois 2,514 AA- Miami-Dade County Florida Aviation Authority - Miami International Airport 2,330 A+ Washington (State of) 2,313 AA- Houston Texas Water and Sewer Authority 2,289 AA- Port Authority of New York and New Jersey 2,260 AA- Los Angeles California Unified School District 2,208 AA- Wisconsin (State of) 2,159 AA- Illinois (State of) 2,110 BBB+ University of California Board of Regents 1,986 AA- Massachusetts (Commonwealth of) State Sales Tax 1,976 AA New York MTA Transportation Authority 1,971 A Pennsylvania (Commonwealth of) 1,870 AA- New York City Municipal Water Finance Authority 1,799 AA+ Philadelphia (City of) Pennsylvania 1,785 BBB- Michigan (State of) 1,756 A+ Long Island Power Authority 1,616 A- Chicago-O'Hare International Airport 1,610 A Miami-Dade County Florida School Board 1,585 A- Arizona (State of) 1,549 AA- Los Angeles California Department of Water and Power - Electric Revenue Bonds 1,473 AA- Chicago Illinois Public Schools 1,456 A+ Kentucky (Commonwealth of) 1,439 AA- Puerto Rico Highway and Transportation Authority 1,419 BBB New Jersey Turnpike Authority 1,399 A- Massachusetts (Commonwealth of) Water Resources 1,392 AA Atlanta Georgia Water & Sewer System 1,370 BBB+ Broward County Florida School Board 1,313 AA- Illinois Toll Highway Authority 1,300 AA Metro Washington Airport Authority 1,271 A+ Hawaii (State of) Department of Hawaiian Home Lands 1,268 AA San Francisco Airports Commission 1,263 A New York State Thruway - Highway Trust Fund 1,202 AA- Puerto Rico Electric Power Authority 1,182 A- Connecticut (State of) 1,182 AA+ Philadelphia Pennsylvania School District 1,168 A California State University System Trustee 1,115 A+ District of Columbia 1,110 A+ Detroit Michigan Sewer 1,110 BBB+ Orlando-Orange County Expressway Authority, Florida 1,102 A+ Pennsylvania Turnpike Commission 1,092 A+ New York MTA Dedicated Tax 1,085 AA- Skyway Concession Company LLC 1,071 BBB- Georgia Board of Regents Revenue Stream 1,068 A North Texas Tollway Authority 1,046 A Total top 50 U.S. public finance exposures 88,065$ Note: Please refer to the Glossary for a description of ratings.

 


Assured Guaranty Ltd. Largest Exposures by Sector (2 of 4) As of June 30, 2011 (dollars in millions) 50 Largest U.S. Structured Finance Exposures Net Par Internal Credit Credit name: Outstanding Rating Enhancement Fortress Credit Opportunities I, LP. 1,302$ AA 32.6% Stone Tower Credit Funding 1,254 AAA 50.1% Synthetic Investment Grade Pooled Corporate CDO 1,157 AAA 13.4% Synthetic High Yield Pooled Corporate CDO 975 AA- 41.1% Synthetic High Yield Pooled Corporate CDO 842 Super Senior 31.4% Deutsche Alt-A Securities Mortgage Loan 2007-2 841 CCC 0.0% Synthetic High Yield Pooled Corporate CDO 815 Super Senior 30.4% Synthetic Investment Grade Pooled Corporate CDO 800 Super Senior 23.6% Synthetic Investment Grade Pooled Corporate CDO 764 Super Senior 14.8% Synthetic Investment Grade Pooled Corporate CDO 754 Super Senior 29.2% Mizuho II Synthetic CDO 747 A N/A Synthetic Investment Grade Pooled Corporate CDO 733 Super Senior 30.3% Synthetic High Yield Pooled Corporate CDO 731 AA- 40.0% Private Consumer Receivable Transaction 700 Super Senior 58.7% 280 FUNDING I 660 AAA 40.4% Synthetic Investment Grade Pooled Corporate CDO 653 AAA 17.2% ARES Enhanced Credit Opportunities Fund 608 AAA 46.2% MABS 2007-NCW 569 B 31.7% Synthetic Investment Grade Pooled Corporate CDO 514 Super Senior 14.3% Synthetic High Yield Pooled Corporate CDO 494 AAA 46.7% Denali CLO VII, Ltd 486 AAA 20.1% Shenandoah Trust Capital I Term Securities 484 A+ N/A Countrywide HELOC 2006-I 478 CCC 0.0% Eastland CLO, Ltd 463 Super Senior 37.4% MASTR 2007-3 (NEGAM) 452 CCC 0.0% SLM Private Credit Student Trust 2007-A 450 BBB 15.9% Avenue CLO V 449 AAA 21.3% Synthetic Investment Grade Pooled Corporate CDO 449 Super Senior 12.0% Synthetic High Yield Pooled Corporate CDO 436 AAA 29.5% Synthetic Investment Grade Pooled Corporate CDO 433 AAA 10.7% Private Residential Mortgage Transaction 430 B 18.8% Mortgage IT Securities Corp. Mortgage Loan 2007-2 429 B 9.5% LIICA Holdings, LLC 427 AA N/A Private Residential Mortgage Transaction 427 BB 20.3% Synthetic High Yield Pooled Corporate CDO 426 Super Senior 35.6% Synthetic High Yield Pooled Corporate CDO 419 Super Senior 24.5% Churchill Financial Cayman 413 AAA 35.9% KKR Financial CLO 2007-1 409 AAA 51.4% Synthetic Investment Grade Pooled Corporate CDO 404 Super Senior 14.2% Private Consumer Receivable Transaction 400 Super Senior 62.2% Grayson CLO 397 Super Senior 27.4% Countrywide HELOC 2006-F( includes $33.7 million repurchased) 1 395 CCC 0.0% SLM Student Loan Trust 2007-6 392 AAA 3.5% Synthetic High Yield Pooled Corporate CDO 388 AAA 29.5% Deutsche Alt-A Securities Mortgage Loan 2007-3 385 B 4.9% Private Residential Mortgage Transaction 383 CCC 21.6% STONE TOWER III 381 AAA 22.0% Synthetic Investment Grade Pooled Corporate CDO 380 Super Senior 29.2% Option One 2007-FXD2 380 CCC 16.4% Private Residential Mortgage Transaction 374 BB 19.8% Total top 50 U.S. structured finance exposures 28,532$ 1. Represents amounts of gross par which were purchased or obtained as part of loss mitigation strategies and recorded as part of the investment portfolio. Note: Please refer to the Glossary for a description of ratings.

 


Assured Guaranty Ltd. Largest Exposures by Sector (3 of 4) As of June 30, 2011 (in millions) 25 Largest Non-U.S. Exposures Net Par Internal Credit name: Outstanding Rating Quebec Province 2,243$ A+ Sydney Airport Finance Company 1,747 BBB Thames Water Utility Finance PLC 1,562 A- Essential Public Infrastructure Capital II 1,061 Super Senior Fortress Credit Investments I 995 AAA Channel Link Enterprises Finance PLC 933 BBB Southern Gas Networks PLC 841 BBB Campania Region - Healthcare receivable 837 A- International AAA Sovereign Debt Synthetic CDO 821 AAA Societe des Autoroutes du Nord et de l'est de France S.A. 755 BBB+ Synthetic Investment Grade Pooled Corporate CDO 732 Super Senior Paragon Mortgages (No.13) PLC 724 AAA Reliance Rail Finance Pty. Limited 717 BB Capital Hospitals (Issuer) PLC 714 BBB- United Utilities Water PLC 701 BBB+ Japan Expressway Holding and Debt Repayment Agency 689 AA International Infrastructure Pool (WISE 2006-1 Plc Senior Swap - B) 687 A- International Infrastructure Pool (WISE 2006-1 Plc Senior Swap - A) 687 A- International Infrastructure Pool (WISE 2006-1 Plc Senior Swap - C) 687 A- Artesian Finance II Plc (Southern) 671 A- ETSA Utility Finance Pty. Limited 604 A- Synthetic Investment Grade Pooled Corporate CDO 597 Super Senior DBNGP Finance Co Pty Ltd Note Issue 1 & 2 596 BBB Taberna Europe CDO II PLC 584 BBB- Envestra Limited 581 BBB- Total top 25 non-U.S. exposures 21,766$ Note: Please refer to the Glossary for a description of ratings.

 


Assured Guaranty Ltd. Largest Exposures by Sector (4 of 4) As of June 30, 2011 (in millions) 10 Largest U.S. Residential Mortgage Servicers Exposures Net Par Servicer: Outstanding Bank of America, N.A.1 7,092$ American Home Mortgage Servicing, Inc. 2,578 Wells Fargo Bank NA 2,119 GMAC Mortgage, LLC 1,830 Specialized Loan Servicing LLC 1,641 Ocwen Loan Servicing, LLC 1,182 JPMorgan Chase Bank 788 OneWest Bank Group LLC 665 Select Portfolio Servicing, Inc. 484 Carrington Mortgage Services, LLC 376 Total top 10 U.S. residential mortgage servicers exposures 18,755$ 10 Largest U.S. Healthcare Exposures Net Par Internal Credit name: Outstanding Rating State CHRISTUS Health 498$ A+ TX MultiCare Health System 447 A+ WA Methodist Healthcare, TN 377 A TN Virtua Health - New Jersey 363 A NJ Meridian Health System 361 A- NJ Covenant Health 349 A- TN Iowa Health System 327 A+ IA Bon Secours Health System Obligated Group 313 A- MD Asante Health System 295 A OR Lehigh Valley Health Network 293 A+ PA Total top 10 U.S. healthcare exposures 3,623$ 1. Includes Countrywide Home Loans Servicing LP. Note: Please refer to the Glossary for a description of ratings.

 


Assured Guaranty Ltd. Rollforward of Net Expected Loss and LAE to be Paid As of June 30, 2011 (in millions) Rollforward of Net Expected Loss and LAE to be Paid for the Three Months Ended June 30, 2011 Expected Loss to be Paid as of Economic Loss Development (Paid) Recovered Losses Expected Loss to be Paid as of Financial Guaranty Insurance Contracts and Credit Derivatives March 31, 2011 During 2Q-11 1 During 2Q-11 June 30, 2011 U.S. RMBS First lien: Prime first lien 1.5$ 1.7$ -$ 3.2$ Alt-A first lien 394.6 8.6 (25.3) 377.9 Option ARMs 409.7 36.2 (95.1) 350.8 Subprime first lien 314.8 (16.8) (3.5) 294.5 Total first lien 1,120.6 29.7 (123.9) 1,026.4 Second lien: Closed end seconds (78.1) (1.4) (19.5) (99.0) HELOC (792.7) 27.1 727.3 (38.3) Total second lien (870.8) 25.7 707.8 (137.3) Total U.S. RMBS 249.8 55.4 583.9 889.1 TruPS 89.0 (3.9) (2.4) 82.7 Other structured finance 257.1 19.7 (0.8) 276.0 Public finance 66.7 (0.3) (0.2) 66.2 662.6$ 70.9$ 580.5$ 1,314.0$ Total Rollforward of Net Expected Loss and LAE to be Paid for the Six Months Ended June 30, 2011 Expected Loss to be Paid as of Economic Loss Development (Paid) Recovered Losses Expected Loss to be Paid as of Financial Guaranty Insurance Contracts and Credit Derivatives December 31, 2010 During 2011 1 During 2011 June 30, 2011 U.S. RMBS First lien: Prime first lien 1.4$ 1.8$ -$ 3.2$ Alt-A first lien 399.8 23.0 (44.9) 377.9 Option ARMs 628.8 (83.2) (194.8) 350.8 Subprime first lien 310.6 (3.4) (12.7) 294.5 Total first lien 1,340.6 (61.8) (252.4) 1,026.4 Second lien: Closed end seconds 87.5 (135.1) (51.4) (99.0) HELOC (805.7) 104.7 662.7 (38.3) Total second lien (718.2) (30.4) 611.3 (137.3) Total U.S. RMBS 622.4 (92.2) 358.9 889.1 TruPS 90.3 (3.8) (3.8) 82.7 Other structured finance 247.2 31.8 (3.0) 276.0 Public finance 88.9 (13.5) (9.2) 66.2 1,048.8$ (77.7)$ 342.9$ 1,314.0$ Total 1. Includes the effect of changes in the Company's estimate of future recovery on representations and warranties ("R&W").

 


Assured Guaranty Ltd. Financial Guaranty Insurance and Credit Derivatives U.S. RMBS R&W Benefit Development (dollars in millions) Financial Guaranty Insurance and Credit Derivatives U.S. RMBS R&W Benefit Development for the Three Months Ended June 30, 2011 R&W R&W Future Net R&W Economic Recovered Future Net R&W Benefit at Loss Development During Benefit at March 31, 2011 During 2Q-11 2Q-11 June 30, 2011 Financial guaranty insurance: Prime first lien 2.3$ 0.6$ -$ 2.9$ Alt-A first lien 120.7 6.9 - 127.6 Option ARMs 619.0 113.9 (21.7) 711.2 Subprime first lien 1 81.1 0.4 - 81.5 Closed end seconds 273.2 (33.5) - 239.7 HELOC 1,124.7 2.6 (816.9) 310.4 Total 2,221.0$ 90.9$ (838.6)$ 1,473.3$ Credit derivatives 174.2$ 0.5$ (4.3)$ 170.4$ Financial Guaranty Insurance and Credit Derivatives U.S. RMBS R&W Benefit Development for the Six Months Ended June 30, 2011 R&W R&W Future Net R&W Economic Recovered Future Net R&W Benefit at Loss Development During Benefit at December 31, 2010 During 2011 2011 June 30, 2011 Financial guaranty insurance: Prime first lien 1.1$ 1.8$ -$ 2.9$ Alt-A first lien 81.0 46.6 - 127.6 Option ARMs 309.3 449.2 (47.3) 711.2 Subprime first lien 1 26.8 54.7 - 81.5 Closed end seconds 178.2 61.5 - 239.7 HELOC 1,004.1 157.1 (850.8) 310.4 Total 1,600.5$ 770.9$ (898.1)$ 1,473.3$ Credit derivatives 70.2$ 104.5$ (4.3)$ 170.4$ Financial Guaranty Insurance and Credit Derivatives U.S. RMBS Policies With R&W Benefit # of Risks as of Outstanding Principal and Interest as of June 30, 2011 December 31, 2010 June 30, 2011 December 31, 2010 Financial guaranty insurance: Prime first lien 1 1 54.5$ 57.1$ Alt-A first lien 20 17 1,826.7 1,882.8 Option ARMs 11 10 1,914.8 1,909.8 Subprime first lien 1 4 1 982.7 228.7 Closed end seconds 4 4 396.3 444.9 HELOC 15 13 3,844.9 2,969.8 Total 55 46 9,019.9$ 7,493.1$ Credit derivatives 7 6 3,449.9$ 3,616.5$ 1. Includes net interest margin.

 


Assured Guaranty Ltd. Losses Incurred and Paid As of June 30, 2011 (in millions) Total Net Par Outstanding for BIG Transactions 1 2Q-11 Losses Incurred 2011 Losses Incurred Net Reserve and Credit Impairment Net Salvage and Subrogation Assets Net Expected Loss to be Expensed Financial Guaranty Insurance Contracts and Credit Derivatives First lien: Prime first lien 607.9$ 1.2$ 1.1$ 2.5$ -$ 0.8$ Alt-A first lien 5,010.8 17.1 28.8 227.3 5.5 176.2 Option ARMs 2,562.1 78.8 43.6 218.8 106.3 265.6 Subprime first lien 2 3,013.9 (7.1) 15.4 211.9 0.1 69.0 Total first lien 11,194.7 90.0 88.9 660.5 111.9 511.6 Second lien: Closed end seconds 1,058.3 (4.0) (40.7) 4.8 129.6 83.2 HELOC 3,604.2 37.0 98.0 59.8 182.9 179.9 Total second lien 4,662.5 33.0 57.3 64.6 312.5 263.1 Total U.S. RMBS 15,857.2 123.0 146.2 725.1 424.4 774.7 TruPS 3,250.5 (2.5) (3.6) 60.4 1.1 2.2 Other structured finance 3,357.4 19.7 38.4 242.6 1.4 34.9 Public finance 5,309.9 3.8 (12.0) 64.0 37.9 37.6 27,775.0 144.0 169.0 1,092.1 464.8 849.4 Subtotal Effect of consolidating financial guaranty VIEs - (19.6) (71.5) (64.8) (192.9) (260.3) Total 27,775.0 124.4 97.5 1,027.3 271.9 589.1 Other - - - 2.1 - - Total 27,775.0$ 124.4$ 97.5$ 1,029.4$ 271.9$ 589.1$ Insurance Reserves Credit Impairment on Credit Derivative Contracts 3 Salvage and Subrogation Recoverable Net Gross 518.1$ 557.4$ 307.1$ 768.4$ Ceded 26.0 20.1 35.2 4 10.9 Net 492.1$ 537.3$ 271.9$ 757.5$ 1. As of June 30, 2011, securities purchased for loss mitigation purposes represented $1,029.3 million of gross par outstanding. In addition, under the terms of certain credit derivative contracts, the Company has obtained the underlying collateral of transactions and recorded it in invested assets in the consolidated balance sheets. Such amounts totaled $246.9 million in gross par outstanding. 2. Includes net interest margin. 3. Credit derivative assets and liabilities recorded on the balance sheet considers estimates of expected losses. 4. Recorded in "reinsurance balances payable, net" on the consolidated balance sheets.

 


Assured Guaranty Ltd. Summary Financial and Statistical Data (dollars in millions, except per share amounts) Year Ended December 31, As of and for six months ended June 30, 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 GAAP Summary Income Statement Data Net earned premiums 484.0$ 1,186.7$ 930.4$ 261.4$ 159.3$ Net investment income 197.2 354.7 259.2 162.6 128.1 Realized gains and other settlements on credit derivatives 24.6 153.5 163.6 117.6 74.0 Total expenses 277.6 765.8 784.2 440.9 161.5 Income (loss) before income taxes 78.5 635.5 132.9 112.3 (463.0) Net income (loss) attributable to Assured Guaranty Ltd. 67.7 548.9 97.2 68.9 (303.3) Net income (loss) attributable to Assured Guaranty Ltd. per diluted share 0.36 2.90 0.75 0.77 (4.38) GAAP Summary Balance Sheet Data Total investments and cash 11,345.9 10,837.1 11,012.5 3,643.6 3,147.9 Total assets 19,238.9 19,794.6 16,802.7 4,555.7 3,762.9 Unearned premium reserve 6,315.4 6,972.9 8,400.2 1,233.7 887.2 Loss and LAE reserve 518.1 563.0 289.5 196.8 125.6 Long-term debt 1,046.4 1,052.9 1,066.5 347.2 347.1 Shareholders, equity attributable to Assured Guaranty Ltd. 3,950.0 3,798.8 3,520.5 1,926.2 1,666.6 Book value attributable to Assured per share 21.44 20.67 19.12 21.18 20.85 Non-GAAP Financial Measures Operating income 385.2$ 660.3$ 293.4$ 74.5$ 178.0$ Operating income per diluted share 2.06 3.49 2.27 0.84 2.57 Adjusted book value 9,067.8 8,999.1 8,913.7 3,817.8 3,349.8 PVP 104.4 362.7 640.2 823.0 874.6 Other Financial Information (GAAP Basis) Net debt service outstanding (end of period) 886,768$ 927,143$ 958,265$ 348,816$ 302,413$ Gross debt service outstanding (end of period) 984,553 1,029,982 1,095,037 354,858 307,657 Net par outstanding (end of period) 587,196 617,131 640,422 222,722 200,279 Gross par outstanding (end of period) 648,129 681,248 726,929 227,164 204,809 Other Financial Information (Statutory Basis) Net debt service outstanding (end of period) 870,856$ 905,131$ 942,193$ 348,816$ 302,413$ Gross debt service outstanding (end of period) 966,019 1,004,096 1,076,039 354,858 307,657 Net par outstanding (end of period) 572,584 598,843 626,274 222,722 200,279 Gross par outstanding (end of period) 631,114 659,765 709,786 227,164 204,809 Consolidated qualified statutory capital 5,555 4,915 4,841 2,310 2,079 Consolidated policyholders' surplus and reserves 10,925 10,247 10,409 3,652 3,040 Ratios: Par insured to statutory capital 103:1 122:1 129:1 96:1 96:1 Capital ratio 1 157:1 184:1 195:1 151:1 145:1 Financial resources ratio 2 66:1 72:1 72:1 70:1 68:1 Gross debt service written: Public finance - U.S. 11,755$ 48,990$ 87,940$ 68,265$ 66,190$ Public finance - non-U.S. - 51 894 3,350 11,849 Structured finance - U.S. 847 2,962 2,501 13,972 42,414 Structured finance - non-U.S. - - - 5,490 13,122 Total gross debt service written 12,602$ 52,003$ 91,335$ 91,077$ 133,575$ Net debt service written 12,602$ 52,003$ 91,335$ 89,871$ 129,872$ Net par written 6,692 30,759 49,759 55,418 84,686 Gross par written 6,692 30,759 49,921 56,140 88,117 1. The capital ratio is calculated by dividing net debt service outstanding by qualified statutory capital. 2. The financial resources ratio is calculated by dividing net debt service outstanding by total claims paying resources. Note: Please refer to the endnotes for an explanation of the non-GAAP financial measures.

 


Glossary Unless otherwise noted, the following conventions are used in this financial supplement: Average Credit Enhancement is intended to provide a measure of the amount of equity and/or subordinated tranches that are junior in the capital structure to Assured Guaranty’s exposure, expressed as a percentage of the total transaction size, and reflects any reduction of that credit support resulting from defaults or other factors. For transactions where excess spread may be available to absorb certain losses, the amounts shown do not include any benefit from excess spread. The calculation methodologies differ for the various asset classes to reflect differences in transaction structures in order to provide a measure that management believes is comparable across asset classes. Data is obtained from third-party sources such as trustee reports and may be subject to misstatement or correction. CBOs (collateralized bond obligation)/CLOs (collateralized loan obligation) are asset-backed securities largely backed by non-investment grade/high yield collateral. Cumulative Losses are defined as net charge-offs on the underlying loan collateral divided by the original collateral balance. 60+ Day Delinquencies are defined as loans that are greater than 60 days delinquent and all loans that are in foreclosure, bankruptcy or real estate owned and any non-performing loans divided by current collateral balance. HELOC refers to a type of residential mortgage-backed transaction backed by second-lien loan collateral consisting of home equity lines of credit. Internal Rating for the Company’s ratings scale is similar to that used by the nationally recognized statistical rating organizations; however, the ratings in the tables may not be the same as ratings assigned by any such rating agency. The super senior category, which is not generally used by rating agencies, is used by the Company in instances where Assured Guaranty's AAA-rated exposure on its internal rating scale has additional credit enhancement due to either (a) the existence of another security rated AAA that is subordinated to Assured Guaranty's exposure or (b) Assured Guaranty's exposure benefiting from a different form of credit enhancement that would pay any claims first in the event that any of the exposures incurs a loss, and such credit enhancement, in management's opinion, causes AssuredGuaranty's attachment point to be materially above the AAA attachment point. Net par outstanding is based on values for all performance information such as pool factor, subordination, cumulative losses and delinquency obtained from sources such as Intex, Bloomberg, and/or provided by the trustee and may be subject to restatement or correction. Pool Factor is the percentage of the current collateral balance divided by the original collateral balance of the transactions at inception. U.S. Prime First Lien is a type of residential mortgage-backed securities transaction backed primarily by prime first-lien loan collateral plus an insignificant amount of other miscellaneous RMBS transactions. Subordination represents the sum of subordinate tranches and over-collateralization, expressed as a percentage of total transaction size, and does not include any benefit from excess spread collections that may be used to absorb losses. Many of the closed end second lien RMBS transactions insured by the Company have unique structures whereby the collateral may be written down for losses without a corresponding write-down of the obligations insured by the Company. Many of these transactions are currently under-collateralized, with the principal amount of collateral being less than the principal amount of the obligation insured by the Company. The Company is not required to pay principal shortfalls until legal maturity (rather than making timely principal payments), and takes the under-collateralization into account when estimating expected losses for these transactions. Below are the brief descriptions of selected types of U.S. public finance, non-U.S. public finance, U.S. structured finance and non-U.S. structured finance obligations that the Company insures and reinsures. For a more complete description, please refer to Assured Guaranty Ltd.’s Annual Report on Form 10-K for December 31, 2010. General Obligation Bonds are full faith and credit bonds that are issued by states, their political subdivisions and other municipal issuers, and are supported by the general obligation of the issuer to pay from available funds and by a pledge of the issuer to levy ad valorem taxes in an amount sufficient to provide for the full payment of the bonds. Tax-Backed Bonds are obligations that are supported by the issuer from specific and discrete sources of taxation. They include tax-backed revenue bonds, general fund obligations and lease revenue bonds. Tax-backed obligations may be secured by a lien on specific pledged tax revenues, such as a gasoline or excise tax, or incrementally from growth in property tax revenue associated with growth in property values. These obligations also include obligations secured by special assessments levied against property owners and often benefit from issuer covenants to enforce collections of such assessments and to foreclose on delinquent properties. Lease revenue bonds typically are general fund obligations of a municipality or other governmental authority that are subject to annual appropriation or abatement; projects financed and subject to such lease payments ordinarily include real estate or equipment serving an essential public purpose. Bonds in this category also include moral obligations of municipalities or governmental authorities. Municipal Utility Bonds are obligations of all forms of municipal utilities, including electric, water and sewer utilities and resource recovery revenue bonds. These utilities may be organized in various forms, including municipal enterprise systems, authorities or joint action agencies. Transportation Bonds include a wide variety of revenue-supported bonds, such as bonds for airports, ports, tunnels, municipal parking facilities, toll roads and toll bridges. Healthcare Bonds are obligations of healthcare facilities, including community based hospitals and systems, as well as of health maintenance organizations and long-term care facilities.

 


Glossary (continued) Higher Education Bonds are obligations secured by revenue collected by either public or private secondary schools, colleges and universities. Such revenue can encompass all of an institution’s revenue, including tuition and fees, or in other cases, can be specifically restricted to certain auxiliary sources of revenue. Housing Revenue Bonds are obligations relating to both single and multi-family housing, issued by states and localities, supported by cash flow and, in some cases, insurance from entities such as the Federal Housing Administration. Infrastructure Bonds include obligations issued by a variety of entities engaged in the financing of infrastructure projects, such as roads, airports, ports, social infrastructure and other physical assets delivering essential services supported by long-term concession arrangements with a public sector entity. Investor-Owned Utility Bonds are obligations primarily backed by investor-owned utilities, first mortgage bond obligations of for-profit electric or water utilities providing retail, industrial and commercial service, and also include sale-leaseback obligation bonds supported by such entities. Regulated Utilities Obligations are issued by government-regulated providers of essential services and commodities, including electric, water and gas utilities. The majority of the Company’s international regulated utility business is conducted in the UK. Pooled Infrastructure Obligations are synthetic asset-backed obligations that take the form of credit defaul swap obligations or credit-linked notes that reference either infrastructure finance obligations or a pool of such obligations, with a defined deductible to cover credit risks associated with the referenced obligations. Other public finance: primarily includes government insured student loans, government-sponsored project finance and structured municipal which includes excess of loss reinsurance on portfolios of municipal credits. Pooled Corporate Obligations are securities primarily backed by various types of corporate debt obligations, such as secured or unsecured bonds, bank loans or loan participations and trust preferred securities. These securities are often issued in “tranches,” with subordinated tranches providing credit support to the more senior tranches. The Company’s financial guaranty exposures generally are to the more senior tranches of these issues. Residential Mortgage-Backed Securities (‘‘RMBS’’) and Home Equity Securities are obligations backed by closed-end first mortgage loans and closed-and open-end second mortgage loans or home equity loans on one-to-four family residential properties, including condominiums and cooperative apartments. First mortgage loan products in these transactions include fixed rate, adjustable rate (“ARM”) and option adjustable-rate (“Option ARM”) mortgages. The credit quality of borrowers covers a broad range, including “prime”, “subprime” and “Alt-A”. A prime borrower is generally defined as one with strong risk characteristics as measured by factors such as payment history, credit score, and debt-to-income ratio. A subprime borrower is a borrower with higher risk characteristics, usually as determined by credit score and/or credit history. An Alt-A borrower is generally defined as a prime quality borrower that lacks certain ancillary characteristics, such as fully documented income. Financial Products is the guaranteed investment contracts ("GICs") portion of the former Financial Products Business of AGMH. AGM has issued financial guaranty insurance policies on the GICs and in respect of the GICs business that cannot be revoked or cancelled. Assured Guaranty is indemnified against exposure to the former financial products business by Dexia SA and certain of its affiliates. In addition, the French and Belgian governments have issued guaranties in respect of the GICs portion of the financial products business. The financial products business is currently being run off. Structured Credit Securities include program-wide credit enhancement for commercial paper conduits in the U.S., and securities issued in whole business securitizations and intellectual property securitizations. Program-wide credit enhancement generally involves insuring against the default of ABS in a bank-sponsored commercial paper conduit. Securities issued in whole business and intellectual property securitizations are backed by revenue-producing assets sold to a limited-purpose company by an operating company, including franchise agreements, lease agreements, intellectual property and real property. Consumer Receivables Securities are obligations backed by non-mortgage consumer receivables, such as automobile loans and leases, credit card receivables and other consumer receivables. Commercial Mortgage-Backed Securities (‘‘CMBS’’) are obligations backed by pools of commercial mortgages. The collateral supporting CMBS include office, multi-family, retail, hotel, industrial and other specialized or mixed-use properties. Commercial Receivables Securities are obligations backed by equipment loans or leases, fleet auto financings, business loans and trade receivables. Credit support is derived from the cash flows generated by the underlying obligations, as well as property or equipment values as applicable. Insurance Securitization Securities are obligations secured by the future earnings from pools of various types of insurance/reinsurance policies and income produced by invested assets. Other Structured Finance Securities are obligations backed by assets not generally described in any of the other described categories. One such type of asset is a tax benefit to be realized by an investor in one of the Federal or state programs that permit such investor to receive a credit against taxes (such as Federal corporate income tax or state insurance premium tax) for making qualified investments in specified enterprises, typically located in designated low-income areas.

 


Non-GAAP Financial Measures The Company references financial measures that are not in accordance with accounting principles generally accepted in the United States of America (“GAAP”). Assured Guaranty’s management and board of directors utilize non-GAAP measures in evaluating the Company’s financial performance and as a basis for determining senior management incentive compensation. By providing these non-GAAP financial measures, investors, analysts and financial news reporters have access to the same information that management reviews internally. In addition, Assured Guaranty’s presentation of non-GAAP financial measures is consistent with how analysts calculate their estimates of Assured Guaranty’s financial results in their research reports on Assured Guaranty and with how investors, analysts and the financial news media evaluate Assured Guaranty’s financial results. The following paragraphs define each non-GAAP financial measure and describe why it is useful. A reconciliation of the non-GAAP financial measure and the most directly comparable GAAP financial measure, if available, is presented within this financial supplement. Non-GAAP financial measures should not be viewed as substitutes for their most directly comparable GAAP measures. Operating Income: Management believes that operating income is a useful measure because it clarifies the understanding of the underwriting results of the Company’s financial guaranty insurance business, and also includes financing costs and net investment income, and enables investors and analysts to evaluate the Company’s financial results as compared with the consensus analyst estimates distributed publicly by financial databases. Operating income is defined as net income (loss) attributable to Assured Guaranty Ltd., as reported under GAAP, adjusted for the following: 1) Elimination of the after-tax realized gains (losses) on the Company’s investments, except for gains and losses on securities classified as trading. The timing of realized gains and losses, which depends largely on market credit cycles, can vary considerably across periods. The timing of sales is largely subject to the Company’s discretion and influenced by market opportunities, as well as the Company’s tax and capital profile. Trends in the underlying profitability of the Company.s business can be more clearly identified without the fluctuating effects of these transactions. 2) Elimination of the after-tax non-credit-impairment unrealized fair value gains (losses) on credit derivatives, which is the amount in excess of the present value of the expected estimated economic credit losses and non-economic payments. Such fair value adjustments are heavily affected by, and in part fluctuate with, changes in market interest rates, credit spreads and other market factors and are not expected to result in an economic gain or loss. Additionally, such adjustments present all financial guaranty contracts on a more consistent basis of accounting, whether or not they are subject to derivative accounting rules. 3) Elimination of the after-tax fair value gains (losses) on the Company’s committed capital securities. Such amounts are heavily affected by, and in part fluctuate with, changes in market interest rates, credit spreads and other market factors and are not expected to result in an economic gain or loss. 4) Elimination of the after-tax foreign exchange gains (losses) on revaluation of net premium receivables. Long-dated receivables constitute a significant portion of the net premium receivable balance and represent the present value of future contractual or expected collections. Therefore, the current period’s foreign exchange revaluation gains (losses) are not necessarily indicative of the total foreign exchange gains (losses) that the Company will ultimately recognize. 5) Elimination of the effects of consolidating certain financial guaranty VIEs in order to present all financial guaranty contracts on a more consistent basis of accounting, whether or not GAAP requires consolidation. GAAP requires the Company to consolidate certain VIEs that have issued debt obligations insured by the Company even though the Company does not own such VIEs. Operating Shareholders’ Equity: Management believes that operating shareholders’ equity is a useful measure because it presents the equity of Assured Guaranty Ltd. with all financial guaranty contracts accounted for on a more consistent basis and excludes fair value adjustments that are not expected to result in economic loss. Many investors, analysts and financial news reporters use operating shareholders’ equity as the principal financial measure for valuing Assured Guaranty Ltd.’s current share price or projected share price and also as the basis of their decision to recommend, buy or sell Assured Guaranty Ltd.’s common shares. Many of the Company’s fixed income investors also use operating shareholders’ equity to evaluate the Company’s capital adequacy. Operating shareholders’ equity is the basis of the calculation of adjusted book value (see below). Operating shareholders’ equity is defined as shareholders’ equity attributable to Assured Guaranty Ltd., as reported under GAAP, adjusted for the following: 1) Elimination of the effects of consolidating certain VIEs in order to present all financial guaranty contracts on a more consistent basis of accounting, whether or not GAAP requires consolidation. GAAP requires the Company to consolidate certain VIEs that have issued debt obligations insured by the Company even though the Company does not own such VIEs. 2) Elimination of the after-tax non-credit-impairment unrealized fair value gains (losses) on credit derivatives, which is the amount in excess of the present value of the expected estimated economic credit losses and non-economic payments. Such fair value adjustments are heavily affected by, and in part fluctuate with, changes in market interest rates, credit spreads and other market factors and are not expected to result in an economic gain or loss. 3) Elimination of the after-tax fair value gains (losses) on the Company’s committed capital securities. Such amounts are heavily affected by, and in part fluctuate with, changes in market interest rates, credit spreads and other market factors and are not expected to result in an economic gain or loss. 4) Elimination of the after-tax unrealized gains (losses) on the Company’s investments, that are recorded as a component of accumulated other comprehensive income (AOCI) (excluding foreign exchange revaluation). The AOCI component of the fair value adjustment on the investment portfolio is not deemed economic because the Company generally holds these investments to maturity and therefore will not recognize an economic loss. Operating return on equity (“Operating ROE”): Operating ROE represents operating income for a specified period divided by the average of operating shareholders’ equity at the beginning and the end of that period. Management believes that operating ROE is a useful measure to evaluate the Company’s return on invested capital. Many investors, analysts and members of the financial news media use operating ROE to evaluate Assured Guaranty Ltd.’s share price and as the basis of their decision to recommend, buy or sell the Assured Guaranty Ltd. common shares. Quarterly and year-to-date operating ROE are calculated on an annualized basis.

 


Non-GAAP Financial Measures (continued) Adjusted Book Value: Management believes that adjusted book value is a useful measure because it enables an evaluation of the net present value of the Company’s in-force premiums and revenues in addition to operating shareholders’ equity. The premiums and revenues included in adjusted book value will be earned in future periods, but actual earnings may differ materially from the estimated amounts used in determining current adjusted book value due to changes in, foreign exchange rates, refinancing or refunding activity, prepayment speeds, terminations, credit defaults and other factors. Many investors, analysts and financial news reporters use adjusted book value to evaluate Assured Guaranty Ltd.’s share price and as the basis of their decision to recommend, buy or sell the Assured Guaranty Ltd. common shares. Adjusted book value is operating shareholders’ equity, as defined above, further adjusted for the following: 1) Elimination of after-tax deferred acquisition costs. These amounts represent net deferred expenses that have already been paid or accrued and will be expensed in future accounting periods. 2) Addition of the after-tax net present value of estimated net future credit derivative revenue. See below. 3) Addition of the after-tax value of the unearned premium reserve on financial guaranty contracts in excess of expected loss to be expensed, net of reinsurance. This amount represents the expected future net earned premiums, net of expected losses to be expensed. Net expected losses to be expensed are not reflected in GAAP equity. Net present value of estimated net future credit derivative revenue: Management believes that this amount is a useful measure because it enables an evaluation of the value of future estimated credit derivative revenue. There is no corresponding GAAP financial measure. This amount represents the present value of estimated future revenue from the Company’s credit derivative in-force book of business, net of reinsurance, ceding commissions and premium taxes for contracts without expected economic losses, and is discounted at 6% (which represents the Company’s tax-equivalent pre-tax investment yield on its investment portfolio). Estimated net future credit derivative revenue may change from period to period due to changes in foreign exchange rates, prepayment speeds, terminations, credit defaults or other factors that affect par outstanding or the ultimate maturity of an obligation. PVP or present value of new business production: Management believes that PVP is a useful measure because it enables the evaluation of the value of new business production for Assured Guaranty by taking into account the value of estimated future installment premiums on all new contracts underwritten in a reporting period as well as premium supplements and additional installment premium on existing contractsas to which the issuer has the right to call the insured obligation but has not exercised such right, whether in insurance or credit derivative contract form, which GAAP gross premiums written and the net credit derivative premiums received and receivable portion of net realized gains and other settlement on credit derivatives (“Credit Derivative Revenues”) do not adequately measure. PVP in respect of insurance and credit derivative contracts written in a specified period is defined as gross upfront and installment premiums received and the present value of gross estimated future installment premiums, in each case, discounted at 6% (the Company’s tax-equivalent pre-tax investment yield on its investment portfolio). For purposes of the PVP calculation, management discounts estimated future installment premiums on insurance contracts at 6%, while under GAAP, these amounts are discounted at a risk free rate. Additionally, under GAAP, management records future installment premiums on financial guaranty insurance contracts covering non-homogeneous pools of assets based on the contractual term of the transaction, whereas for PVP purposes, management records an estimate of the future installment premiums the Company expects to receive, which may be based upon a shorter period of time than the contractual term of the transaction. Actual future net earned or written premiums and Credit Derivative Revenues may differ from PVP due to factors including, but not limited to, changes in foreign exchange rates, refinancing or refunding activity, prepayment speeds, terminations, credit defaults, or other factors that affect par outstanding or the ultimate maturity of an obligation.

 


Contacts: Equity and Fixed Income Investors: Robert Tucker Managing Director, Investor Relations (212) 339-0861 rtucker@assuredguaranty.com Ross Aron Vice President, Investor Relations (212) 261-5509 raron@assuredguaranty.com Assured Guaranty Ltd. Michael Walker 30 Woodbourne Avenue Director, Fixed Income Investor Relations Hamilton HM 08 (212) 261-5575 Bermuda mwalker@assuredguaranty.com (441) 279-5705 www.assuredguaranty.com Media: Ashweeta Durani Vice President, Corporate Communications (212) 408-6042 adurani@assuredguaranty.com AG_FoCo_logo