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8-K - RADIAN GROUP INC. -- FORM 8-K - RADIAN GROUP INCd8k.htm

Exhibit 99.1

LOGO

Contact:

Emily Rileyphone: 215.231.1035

               email: emily.riley@radian.biz

Radian Reports Fourth Quarter and

Full Year 2010 Financial Results

 

 

Reported loss includes a valuation allowance against the net deferred tax asset and losses on fair value of derivatives –

 

 

Mortgage insurance delinquencies declined for fourth consecutive quarter –

 

 

Improved risk-to-capital ratio of 16.8:1 among lowest in MI industry –

PHILADELPHIA, February 3, 2011 — Radian Group Inc. (NYSE: RDN) today reported a net loss for the quarter ended December 31, 2010, of $1.1 billion, or $8.55 per diluted share. This compares to a net loss of $91.9 million, or $1.12 per diluted share, for the prior-year fourth quarter. The net loss for the full year 2010 was $1.8 billion, or $15.74 per diluted share. This compares to a net loss of $147.9 million, or $1.80 per diluted share, for the prior year. The results for 2010 included the impact of a non-cash, GAAP accounting charge of $841.5 million, or $6.35 per share in the fourth quarter of 2010, related to establishing a valuation allowance against substantially all of the company’s net deferred tax asset (DTA) and also includes a pre-tax loss from the change in fair value of derivatives of $185.9 million for the quarter and $558.7 million for the year. Book value per share at December 31, 2010, was $6.46.

“We were encouraged by the fourth straight quarter of declining mortgage insurance delinquencies, continued signs of credit trend stabilization in our businesses, and a steady 21 percent market share in an environment where private mortgage insurance continues to regain business from the FHA,” said Chief Executive Officer S.A. Ibrahim.

Ibrahim added, “It is important to note that the establishment of a valuation allowance in the quarter does not have any impact on statutory capital, risk-to-capital ratio, liquidity or business operations, and it does not reflect a change in our view of Radian’s long-term financial outlook. We are confident that our capital, financial flexibility and solid customer base position Radian for future success.”


LOGO

 

FOURTH QUARTER HIGHLIGHTS

 

 

The risk-to-capital ratio for Radian Guaranty Inc., the company’s primary mortgage insurance subsidiary, was 16.8:1 at December 31, 2010, compared to 17.2:1 at September 30, 2010, and 15.4:1 at December 31, 2009. Radian Group contributed $200 million to Radian Guaranty during the fourth quarter and the company has sufficient liquidity to contribute additional capital to its mortgage insurance subsidiaries in 2011, if needed.

 

 

New mortgage insurance written (NIW) increased for the fourth consecutive quarter to $3.8 billion, compared to $3.2 billion in the third quarter. NIW continued to consist of loans with excellent risk characteristics, and the company maintained a market share of 21 percent.

 

 

The total number of primary delinquent loans decreased by 4 percent in the fourth quarter, which represented the fourth consecutive quarterly decline. In addition, the number of primary delinquencies declined slightly in January.

 

 

The mortgage insurance provision for losses was $426.3 million in the fourth quarter of 2010, compared to $459.9 million in the prior-year period. Mortgage insurance loss reserves were approximately $3.5 billion as of December 31, 2010, which was flat to the third quarter of 2010, and up slightly from a year ago. As of December 31, 2010, total first-lien reserves increased to $23,467 per primary default, compared to $20,921 for the prior year-end, and increased to $24,911 per pool default, compared to $16,118 for the prior year-end. The reserve per default totals exclude defaults for which reserves have not been established due to the presence of a deductible.

 

 

Mortgage insurance claims paid were $392.9 million, which consisted of $389.3 million of first-liens and $3.6 million of second-liens. Net claims paid of $69.2 million were net of recoveries received from captive terminations of $323.7 million. For the full-year 2010, mortgage insurance claims paid were $1.3 billion. The company continues to expect mortgage insurance claims paid of approximately $1.7 billion for the full-year 2011.

 

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LOGO

 

 

 

Radian Asset Assurance Inc. continues to serve as an important source of capital support for Radian Guaranty and is expected to continue to provide Radian Guaranty with cash infusions over time.

 

   

Excluding gains and losses on derivatives and other financial instruments, the financial guaranty segment was profitable on a pre-tax basis in the fourth quarter and for the full-year 2010.

 

   

As of December 31, 2010, Radian Asset had approximately $1.0 billion in statutory surplus with an additional $1.4 billion in claims-paying resources.

 

   

Radian Asset is expected to pay an ordinary dividend of approximately $60 million to Radian Guaranty in June 2011.

 

   

On February 1, 2011, Radian Asset signed an agreement to purchase Municipal and Infrastructure Assurance Corporation (MIAC), a New York domiciled financial guaranty insurance company shell that has not written any business, but has obtained licenses in 36 states and the District of Columbia. The acquisition, which remains subject to regulatory approval, provides Radian Asset with the flexibility to consider using MIAC to pursue strategic alternatives in the public finance market, including possibly partnering with third-party investors to write new public finance insurance and/or reinsuring all or a portion of Radian Asset’s existing public finance business. The company is in early stages of exploring these potential uses, and expects that any new initiative for MIAC would be consistent with its ultimate goal of reducing financial guaranty exposure. The expected purchase price of approximately $82 million is $7 million above the value of the capital base of MIAC, consisting of approximately $75 million of cash, cash equivalents and treasury securities.

 

 

The valuation allowance of $841.5 million recorded in the quarter represents substantially all of the company’s deferred tax asset. The valuation allowance is primarily a result of the company’s continued history of losses, including the significant loss in the fourth quarter, and the continued uncertainty of future results. While Radian continues to expect a return to profitability in the long-term, this remains uncertain based on macroeconomic factors such as the slower-than-expected pace of the economic recovery as well as the ultimate timing and magnitude of losses. If the company returns to a period of sustained profitability, as it currently expects, all or a portion of this valuation allowance would be reversed.

 

3


LOGO

 

CONFERENCE CALL

The company will discuss each of these items in its conference call today, Thursday, February 3, 2011, at 10:00 a.m. Eastern time. The conference call will be broadcast live over the Internet at http://www.radian.biz/page?name=Webcasts or at www.radian.biz. The call may also be accessed by dialing 800-230-1096 inside the U.S., or 612-332-0342 for international callers, using passcode 190970 or by referencing Radian.

A replay of the webcast will be available on the Radian website approximately two hours after the live broadcast ends for a period of one year. A replay of the conference call will be available approximately two and a half hours after the call ends for a period of two weeks, using the following dial-in numbers and passcode: 800-475-6701 inside the U.S., or 320-365-3844 for international callers, passcode 190970.

In addition to the information provided in the company’s earnings news release, other statistical and financial information, which is expected to be referred to during the conference call, will be available on Radian’s website under Investors >Quarterly Results, or by clicking on http://www.radian.biz/page?name=QuarterlyResults.

ABOUT RADIAN

Radian Group Inc. (NYSE: RDN), headquartered in Philadelphia, provides private mortgage insurance and related risk mitigation products and services to mortgage lenders nationwide through its principal operating subsidiary, Radian Guaranty Inc. These services help promote and preserve homeownership opportunities for homebuyers, while protecting lenders from default-related losses on residential first mortgages and facilitating the sale of low-downpayment mortgages in the secondary market. Additional information may be found at www.radian.biz.

 

4


LOGO

 

FINANCIAL RESULTS AND SUPPLEMENTAL INFORMATION CONTENTS (Unaudited)

For trend information on all schedules, refer to Radian’s quarterly financial statistics at http://www.radian.biz/page?name=FinancialReportsCorporate.

 

Exhibit A:    Condensed Consolidated Statements of Income
Exhibit B:    Condensed Consolidated Balance Sheets
Exhibit C:    Segment Information Quarter Ended December 31, 2010
Exhibit D:    Segment Information Quarter Ended December 31, 2009
Exhibit E:    Segment Information Year Ended December 31, 2010
Exhibit F:    Segment Information Year Ended December 31, 2009
Exhibit G:    Financial Guaranty Supplemental Information –
   For the Quarter and Year Ended and as of December 31, 2010
Exhibit H:    Financial Guaranty Supplemental Information –
   For the Quarter and Year Ended and as of December 31, 2010
Exhibit I:    Mortgage Insurance Supplemental Information –
   For the Quarter and Year Ended and as of December 31, 2010
   New Insurance Written and Risk Written
Exhibit J:    Mortgage Insurance Supplemental Information –
   For the Quarter and Year Ended and as of December 31, 2010
   Insurance in Force and Risk in Force
Exhibit K:    Mortgage Insurance Supplemental Information –
   For the Quarter and Year Ended and as of December 31, 2010
   Risk in Force by LTV and Policy Year and Other Risk in Force
Exhibit L:    Mortgage Insurance Supplemental Information –
   For the Quarter and Year Ended and as of December 31, 2010
   Claims Paid, Reserves and Reserve per Default
Exhibit M:    Mortgage Insurance Supplemental Information –
   For the Quarter and Year Ended and as of December 31, 2010
   Default Statistics
Exhibit N:   

Mortgage Insurance Supplemental Information –

   For the Quarter and Year Ended and as of December 31, 2010
   Net Premiums Written and Earned, Smart Home, Captives and Persistency
Exhibit O:    Mortgage Insurance Supplemental Information –
   For the Quarter and Year Ended and as of December 31, 2010
   Reinsurance Progression Toward Attachment – Summary by Book Year
Exhibit P:    Mortgage Insurance Supplemental Information –
   For the Quarter and Year Ended and as of December 31, 2010
   Modified Pool

 

5


Radian Group Inc. and Subsidiaries

Condensed Consolidated Statements of Income

Exhibit A

 

     Quarter Ended
December 31
    Year Ended
December 31
 
     2010     2009     2010     2009  
(In thousands, except per-share data)                         

Revenues:

        

Net premiums written - insurance

   $ 201,672      $ 163,251      $ 691,881      $ 443,848  (1) 
                                

Net premiums earned - insurance

   $ 220,082      $ 211,570      $ 825,733      $ 825,901   

Net investment income

     38,229        50,624        178,760        214,190   

Change in fair value of derivative instruments

     (185,935     142,913        (558,712     99,958   

Net (losses) gains on other financial instruments

     (121,323     (7,390     (71,737     168,572   

Net impairment losses recognized in earnings

     —          (8,396     (90     (9,269

Gain on sale of affiliate

     —          —          34,815        —     

Other income

     3,042        3,539        8,696        14,026   
                                

Total revenues

     (45,905     392,860        417,465        1,313,378   
                                

Expenses:

        

Provision for losses

     415,809        473,166        1,739,244        1,337,574   

Provision for premium deficiency

     (14,664     16,065        (14,621     (61,504

Policy acquisition costs

     10,750        8,920        53,469        63,034   

Other operating expenses

     48,669        42,499        191,942        203,770   

Interest expense

     13,226        10,120        41,777        46,010   
                                

Total expenses

     473,790        550,770        2,011,811        1,588,884   
                                

Equity in net income of affiliates

     —          9,618        14,668        33,226   
                                

Pretax loss

     (519,695     (148,292     (1,579,678     (242,280

Income tax provision (benefit)

     612,922        (56,425     226,189        (94,401
                                

Net loss

   $ (1,132,617   $ (91,867   $ (1,805,867   $ (147,879
                                

Diluted net loss per share (2)

   $ (8.55   $ (1.12   $ (15.74   $ (1.80
                                

(1)    Includes the reversal of $185.6 million of premiums written related to commutation of $9.8 billion Financial Guaranty net par outstanding in July 2009.

        

(2)    Weighted average shares outstanding (In thousands)

       

Weighted average common shares outstanding

     82,434        81,926        82,505        81,937   

Increase in weighted average shares-common stock offering

     50,000        —          32,192        —     
                                

Weighted average shares outstanding

     132,434        81,926        114,697        81,937   
                                

For Trend Information, refer to our Quarterly Financial Statistics on Radian’s (RDN) website.

 

Page 6


Radian Group Inc. and Subsidiaries

Condensed Consolidated Balance Sheets

Exhibit B

 

(In thousands, except per-share data)    December 31
2010
    December 31
2009
 

Assets:

    

Cash and investments

   $ 6,680,630      $ 6,214,376   

Investments in affiliates

     133        121,480   

Deferred policy acquisition costs

     148,326        160,281   

Deferred income taxes, net

     27,531        440,948   

Reinsurance recoverables

     244,894        628,572   

Derivative assets

     26,212        68,534   

Other assets

     493,161        442,115   
                

Total assets

   $ 7,620,887      $ 8,076,306   
                

Liabilities and stockholders’ equity:

    

Unearned premiums

   $ 686,364      $ 823,621   

Reserve for losses and loss adjustment expenses

     3,596,735        3,578,982   

Reserve for premium deficiency

     10,736        25,357   

Long-term debt

     964,788        698,222   

VIE debt

     520,114        296,080   

Derivative liabilities

     723,579        238,697   

Other liabilities

     258,791        410,353   
                

Total liabilities

     6,761,107        6,071,312   
                

Common stock

     150        100   

Additional paid-in capital

     1,071,080        473,759   

Retained earnings

     (204,926     1,602,143   

Accumulated other comprehensive loss

     (6,524     (71,008
                

Total common stockholders’ equity

     859,780        2,004,994   
                

Total liabilities and stockholders’ equity

   $ 7,620,887      $ 8,076,306   
                

Book value per share

   $ 6.46      $ 24.22   

 

Page 7


Radian Group Inc. and Subsidiaries

Segment Information

Quarter Ended December 31, 2010

Exhibit C

 

(In thousands)

   Mortgage
Insurance
    Financial
Guaranty
    Financial
Services
     Total  

Revenues:

         

Net premiums written - insurance

   $ 200,549      $ 1,123      $ —         $ 201,672   
                                 

Net premiums earned - insurance

   $ 200,569      $ 19,513      $ —         $ 220,082   

Net investment income

     22,469        15,760        —           38,229   

Change in fair value of derivative instruments

     26,642        (212,577     —           (185,935

Net losses on other financial instruments

     (44,917     (76,406     —           (121,323

Net impairment losses recognized in earnings

     —          —          —           —     

Other income

     1,916        65        1,061         3,042   
                                 

Total revenues

     206,679        (253,645     1,061         (45,905
                                 

Expenses:

         

Provision for losses

     426,288        (10,479     —           415,809   

Provision for premium deficiency

     (14,664     —          —           (14,664

Policy acquisition costs

     7,041        3,709        —           10,750   

Other operating expenses

     37,610        11,009        50         48,669   

Interest expense

     4,748        8,478        —           13,226   
                                 

Total expenses

     461,023        12,717        50         473,790   
                                 

Pretax (loss) income

     (254,344     (266,362     1,011         (519,695

Income tax provision

     424,782        187,787        353         612,922   
                                 

Net (loss) income

   $ (679,126   $ (454,149   $ 658       $ (1,132,617
                                 

Cash and investments

   $ 4,037,578      $ 2,643,052      $ —         $ 6,680,630   

Deferred policy acquisition costs

     41,939        106,387        —           148,326   

Total assets

     4,801,953        2,818,934        —           7,620,887   

Unearned premiums

     197,260        489,104        —           686,364   

Reserve for losses and loss adjustment expenses

     3,524,971        71,764        —           3,596,735   

VIE debt

     141,006        379,108        —           520,114   

 

Page 8


Radian Group Inc. and Subsidiaries

Segment Information

Quarter Ended December 31, 2009

Exhibit D

 

(In thousands)

   Mortgage
Insurance
    Financial
Guaranty
    Financial
Services
     Total  

Revenues:

         

Net premiums written - insurance

   $ 164,198      $ (947   $ —         $ 163,251   
                                 

Net premiums earned - insurance

   $ 189,634      $ 21,936      $ —         $ 211,570   

Net investment income

     32,406        18,217        1         50,624   

Change in fair value of derivative instruments

     14,027        128,886        —           142,913   

Net (losses) gains on other financial instruments

     1,365        (8,755     —           (7,390

Net impairment losses recognized in earnings

     (8,396     —          —           (8,396

Other income

     2,393        1,078        68         3,539   
                                 

Total revenues

     231,429        161,362        69         392,860   
                                 

Expenses:

         

Provision for losses

     459,853        13,313        —           473,166   

Provision for premium deficiency

     16,065        —          —           16,065   

Policy acquisition costs

     5,231        3,689        —           8,920   

Other operating expenses

     29,763        12,604        132         42,499   

Interest expense

     3,320        6,800        —           10,120   
                                 

Total expenses

     514,232        36,406        132         550,770   
                                 

Equity in net income of affiliates

     —          —          9,618         9,618   
                                 

Pretax (loss) income

     (282,803     124,956        9,555         (148,292

Income tax (benefit) provision

     (103,408     43,637        3,346         (56,425
                                 

Net (loss) income

   $ (179,395   $ 81,319      $ 6,209       $ (91,867
                                 

Cash and investments

   $ 3,775,682      $ 2,438,694      $ —         $ 6,214,376   

Deferred policy acquisition costs

     35,854        124,427        —           160,281   

Total assets

     4,968,963        2,985,919        121,424         8,076,306   

Unearned premiums

     240,346        583,275        —           823,621   

Reserve for losses and loss adjustment expenses

     3,450,538        128,444        —           3,578,982   

VIE debt

     287,995        8,085        —           296,080   

 

Page 9


Radian Group Inc. and Subsidiaries

Segment Information

Year Ended December 31, 2010

Exhibit E

 

(In thousands)

   Mortgage
Insurance
    Financial
Guaranty
    Financial
Services
     Total  

Revenues:

         

Net premiums written - insurance

   $ 699,909      $ (8,028   $ —         $ 691,881   
                                 

Net premiums earned - insurance

   $ 739,631      $ 86,102      $ —         $ 825,733   

Net investment income

     104,030        74,730        —           178,760   

Change in fair value of derivative instruments

     32,381        (591,093     —           (558,712

Net (losses) gains on other financial instruments

     35,867        (107,604     —           (71,737

Net impairment losses recognized in earnings

     (90     —          —           (90

Gain on sale of affiliate

     —          —          34,815         34,815   

Other income

     7,208        364        1,124         8,696   
                                 

Total revenues

     919,027        (537,501     35,939         417,465   
                                 

Expenses:

         

Provision for losses

     1,730,801        8,443        —           1,739,244   

Provision for premium deficiency

     (14,621     —          —           (14,621

Policy acquisition costs

     36,102        17,367        —           53,469   

Other operating expenses

     141,172        50,520        250         191,942   

Interest expense

     11,668        30,109        —           41,777   
                                 

Total expenses

     1,905,122        106,439        250         2,011,811   
                                 

Equity in net income of affiliates

     —          78        14,590         14,668   
                                 

Pretax (loss) income

     (986,095     (643,862     50,279         (1,579,678

Income tax provision

     157,082        51,509        17,598         226,189   
                                 

Net (loss) income

   $ (1,143,177   $ (695,371   $ 32,681       $ (1,805,867
                                 

 

Page 10


Radian Group Inc. and Subsidiaries

Segment Information

Year Ended December 31, 2009

Exhibit F

 

(In thousands)

   Mortgage
Insurance
    Financial
Guaranty
    Financial
Services
    Total  

Revenues:

        

Net premiums written - insurance

   $ 630,076      $ (186,228   $ —        $ 443,848   
                                

Net premiums earned - insurance

   $ 724,423      $ 101,478      $ —        $ 825,901   

Net investment income

     129,871        84,315        4        214,190   

Change in fair value of derivative instruments

     (14,428     114,386        —          99,958   

Net gains on other financial instruments

     65,615        102,957        —          168,572   

Net impairment losses recognized in earnings

     (9,246     (23     —          (9,269

Other income

     12,258        1,394        374        14,026   
                                

Total revenues

     908,493        404,507        378        1,313,378   
                                

Expenses:

        

Provision for losses

     1,300,827        36,747        —          1,337,574   

Provision for premium deficiency

     (61,504     —          —          (61,504

Policy acquisition costs

     27,563        35,471        —          63,034   

Other operating expenses

     140,487        67,223        (3,940     203,770   

Interest expense

     15,372        30,638        —          46,010   
                                

Total expenses

     1,422,745        170,079        (3,940     1,588,884   
                                

Equity in net income of affiliates

     —          —          33,226        33,226   
                                

Pretax (loss) income

     (514,252     234,428        37,544        (242,280

Income tax (benefit) provision

     (176,456     68,641        13,414        (94,401
                                

Net (loss) income

   $ (337,796   $ 165,787      $ 24,130      $ (147,879
                                

 

Page 11


Radian Group Inc.

Financial Guaranty Supplemental Information

For the Quarter and Year Ended and as of December 31, 2010

Exhibit G

 

(In thousands)    Quarter Ended
December 31
    Year Ended
December 31
 
     2010     2009     2010     2009  

Net Premiums Earned:

        

Public finance direct

   $ 13,898      $ 14,215      $ 54,734      $ 49,965   

Public finance reinsurance

     4,362        5,935        25,297        44,232   

Structured direct

     443        1,208        2,498        6,364   

Structured reinsurance

     815        584        3,544        15,714   

Trade credit reinsurance

     (5     17        46        191   
                                

Net Premiums Earned - insurance

     19,513        21,959        86,119        116,466   

Impact of commutations

     0        (23     (17     (14,988
                                

Total Net Premiums Earned - insurance

   $ 19,513      $ 21,936      $ 86,102      $ 101,478   
                                

Refundings included in earned premium

   $ 7,442      $ 8,913      $ 35,782      $ 40,989   
                                

Net premiums earned - derivatives (1)

   $ 11,259      $ 12,633      $ 46,431      $ 53,423   
                                

Claims paid:

        

Trade credit reinsurance

   $ 13      $ (136   $ 1,091      $ 776   

Financial Guaranty

     6,536        10,258        64,032        134,019   
                                

Total

   $ 6,549      $ 10,122      $ 65,123      $ 134,795   
                                

 

Impact of adoption of amendment to accounting standard regarding VIEs on January 1, 2010:

  

(In millions)                         

Balance Sheet Increase (Decrease):

        

Investments

   $ 89.4         

Other assets

     121.0         

VIE debt

     321.0         

Derivative liabilities

     (128.6      

Derivative liabilities-VIE

     17.4         

Other liabilities

     0.6         

Income Statement Increase (Decrease):

        

Net investment income

   $ 2.7         

Net (losses) gains on other financial instruments

     (58.2      

Change in fair value of derivative instruments

     57.5         

Other operating expenses

     2.0         

 

(1) Included in change in fair value of derivative instruments.

 

Page 12


Radian Group Inc.

Financial Guaranty Supplemental Information

For the Quarter and Year Ended and as of December 31, 2010

Exhibit H

 

($ in thousands, except ratios)    December 31
2010
     December 31
2009
 

Statutory Information:

             

Capital and surplus

   $ 1,040,679       $ 1,062,637   

Contingency reserve

     392,589         366,108   
                 

Qualified statutory capital

     1,433,268         1,428,745   

Unearned premium reserve

     517,516         595,819   

Loss and loss expense reserve

     70,129         128,754   
                 

Total statutory policyholders’ reserves

     2,020,913         2,153,318   

Present value of installment premiums

     202,386         260,662   

Soft capital facilities

     150,000         150,000   
                 

Total statutory claims paying resources

   $ 2,373,299       $ 2,563,980   
                 

Net debt service outstanding

   $ 101,168,759       $ 110,207,923   
                 

Capital leverage ratio (1)

     71         77   

Claims paying leverage ratio (2)

     43         43   

Net par outstanding by product:

     

Public finance direct

   $ 15,727,252       $ 17,536,616   

Public finance reinsurance

     21,907,290         24,180,588   

Structured direct

     39,315,801         43,528,366   

Structured reinsurance

     1,805,295         2,174,433   
                 

Total (3)

   $ 78,755,638       $ 87,420,003   
                 

 

(1) The capital leverage ratio is derived by dividing net debt service outstanding by qualified statutory capital.
(2) The claims paying leverage ratio is derived by dividing net debt service outstanding by total statutory claims paying resources.
(3) Included in public finance net par outstanding is $1.9 billion and $2.2 billion at December 31, 2010 and December 31, 2009, respectively, for legally defeased bond issues where our financial guaranty policy has not been extinguished but cash or securities have been deposited in an escrow account for the benefit of bondholders. The accounting standard for financial guarantee insurance contracts requires that these contracts continue to be accounted for as outstanding contracts despite the elimination of substantially all risk.

 

Page 13


Radian Group Inc.

Mortgage Insurance Supplemental Information

For the Quarter and Year Ended and as of December 31, 2010

Exhibit I

 

     Quarter Ended
December  31
    Year Ended
December  31
 
($ in millions)    2010     2009     2010     2009  
     $     %     $     %     $     %     $     %  

Primary new insurance written

                

Flow

   $ 3,781        100.0   $ 2,414        100.0   $ 11,558        100.0   $ 16,969        100.0
                                                                

Total Primary

   $ 3,781        100.0   $ 2,414        100.0   $ 11,558        100.0   $ 16,969        100.0
                                                                

Total

                

Prime

   $ 3,779        99.9   $ 2,412        99.9   $ 11,553        100.0   $ 16,942        99.8

Alt-A

     —          —          —          —          —          —          11        0.1

A minus and below

     2        0.1     2        0.1     5        —          16        0.1
                                                                

Total Flow

   $ 3,781        100.0   $ 2,414        100.0   $ 11,558        100.0   $ 16,969        100.0
                                                                

Total primary new insurance written by FICO score

                

Total

                

>=740

   $ 3,112        82.3   $ 1,829        75.8   $ 9,294        80.4   $ 12,293        72.5

680-739

     669        17.7     581        24.1     2,261        19.6     4,403        25.9

620-679

     —          —          4        0.1     3        —          272        1.6

<=619

     —          —          —          —          —          —          1        —     
                                                                

Total Flow

   $ 3,781        100.0   $ 2,414        100.0   $ 11,558        100.0   $ 16,969        100.0
                                                                

Percentage of primary new insurance written

                

Refinances

     58       26       42       41  

95.01% LTV and above

     0.7       0.2       0.4       0.1  

ARMs

                

Less than 5 years

     0.1       0.1       0.1       0.1  

5 years and longer

     4.1       5.8       5.3       1.6  

Primary risk written

                

Flow

   $ 852        100.0   $ 533        100.0   $ 2,663        100.0   $ 3,663        100.0
                                                                

Total Primary

   $ 852        100.0   $ 533        100.0   $ 2,663        100.0   $ 3,663        100.0
                                                                

 

Page 14


Radian Group Inc.

Mortgage Insurance Supplemental Information

For the Quarter and Year Ended and as of December 31, 2010

Exhibit J

 

($ in millions)    December 31
2010
    December 31
2009
 
     $     %     $     %  

Primary insurance in force

        

Flow

   $ 115,532        89.2   $ 121,596        84.3

Structured

     14,034        10.8     22,672        15.7
                                

Total Primary

   $ 129,566        100.0   $ 144,268        100.0
                                

Prime

   $ 106,466        82.2   $ 111,398        77.2

Alt-A

     14,542        11.2     22,941        15.9

A minus and below

     8,558        6.6     9,929        6.9
                                

Total Primary

   $ 129,566        100.0   $ 144,268        100.0
                                

Primary risk in force

        

Flow

   $ 28,397        90.3   $ 29,971        88.8

Structured

     3,064        9.7     3,794        11.2
                                

Total Primary

   $ 31,461        100.0   $ 33,765        100.0
                                

Flow

        

Prime

   $ 24,213        85.3   $ 25,036        83.5

Alt-A

     2,618        9.2     3,121        10.4

A minus and below

     1,566        5.5     1,814        6.1
                                

Total Flow

   $ 28,397        100.0   $ 29,971        100.0
                                

Structured

        

Prime

   $ 1,788        58.4   $ 2,059        54.3

Alt-A

     702        22.9     1,083        28.5

A minus and below

     574        18.7     652        17.2
                                

Total Structured

   $ 3,064        100.0   $ 3,794        100.0
                                

Total

        

Prime

   $ 26,001        82.6   $ 27,095        80.2

Alt-A

     3,320        10.6     4,204        12.5

A minus and below

     2,140        6.8     2,466        7.3
                                

Total Primary

   $ 31,461        100.0   $ 33,765        100.0
                                

Total primary risk in force by FICO score

        

Flow

        

>=740

   $ 11,039        38.9   $ 10,526        35.1

680-739

     9,849        34.7     10,790        36.0

620-679

     6,359        22.4     7,329        24.5

<=619

     1,150        4.0     1,326        4.4
                                

Total Flow

   $ 28,397        100.0   $ 29,971        100.0
                                

Structured

        

>=740

   $ 825        26.9   $ 1,036        27.3

680-739

     892        29.1     1,168        30.8

620-679

     815        26.6     990        26.1

<=619

     532        17.4     600        15.8
                                

Total Structured

   $ 3,064        100.0   $ 3,794        100.0
                                

Total

        

>=740

   $ 11,864        37.7   $ 11,562        34.3

680-739

     10,741        34.1     11,958        35.4

620-679

     7,174        22.8     8,319        24.6

<=619

     1,682        5.4     1,926        5.7
                                

Total Primary

   $ 31,461        100.0   $ 33,765        100.0
                                

Percentage of primary risk in force

        

Refinances

     31       31  

95.01% LTV and above

     19       21  

ARMs

        

Less than 5 years

     6       8  

5 years and longer

     7       8  

Pool risk in force

        

Prime

   $ 1,828        74.5   $ 1,918        71.1

Alt-A

     165        6.7     246        9.1

A minus and below

     460        18.8     534        19.8
                                

Total

   $ 2,453        100.0   $ 2,698        100.0
                                

 

Page 15


Radian Group Inc.

Mortgage Insurance Supplemental Information

For the Quarter and Year Ended and as of December 31, 2010

Exhibit K

 

($ in millions)    December 31
2010
    December 31
2009
 
     $     %     $      %  

Total primary risk in force by LTV

         

85.00% and below

   $ 2,816        8.9   $ 3,263         9.6

85.01% to 90.00%

     12,102        38.5     12,589         37.3

90.01% to 95.00%

     10,506        33.4     10,996         32.6

95.01% and above

     6,037        19.2     6,917         20.5
                                 

Total

   $ 31,461        100.0   $ 33,765         100.0
                                 

Total primary risk in force by policy year

         

2005 and prior

   $ 8,145        25.9   $ 9,709         28.7

2006

     3,690        11.7     4,390         13.0

2007

     8,072        25.7     9,443         28.0

2008

     5,935        18.9     6,725         19.9

2009

     3,099        9.8     3,498         10.4

2010

     2,520        8.0     —           —     
                                 

Total

   $ 31,461        100.0   $ 33,765         100.0
                                 

Total pool risk in force by policy year

         

2005 and prior

   $ 2,038        83.1   $ 2,183         80.9

2006

     179        7.3     236         8.7

2007

     190        7.7     223         8.3

2008

     46        1.9     56         2.1
                                 

Total pool risk in force

   $ 2,453        100.0   $ 2,698         100.0
                                 

Other risk in force

         

Second-lien

         

1st loss

   $ 114        $ 147      

2nd loss

     79          116      

NIMs

     136          353      

International

         

1st loss-Hong Kong primary mortgage insurance

     126          257      

Credit default swaps

     —            127      
                     

Total other risk in force

   $ 455        $ 1,000      
                     

Risk to capital ratio-Radian Guaranty only

     16.8:1 (1)        15.4:1      

 

(1) Preliminary.

 

Page 16


Radian Group Inc.

Mortgage Insurance Supplemental Information

For the Quarter and Year Ended and as of December 31, 2010

Exhibit L

 

($ in thousands)    Quarter Ended
December  31
    Year Ended
December  31
 
     2010     2009     2010     2009  

Claims paid

        

Prime

   $ 226,106      $ 113,386      $ 691,922      $ 344,760   

Alt-A

     81,681        67,458        308,113        215,350   

A minus and below

     50,593        40,562        180,078        150,466   
                                

Total primary claims paid

     358,380        221,406        1,180,113        710,576   

Pool

     30,882        18,090        147,667        40,858   

Second-lien and other

     3,644        14,848        20,630        66,583   
                                

Subtotal

     392,906        254,344        1,348,410        818,017   

Impact of first-lien terminations

     —          197,692        223,099        197,692   

Impact of captive terminations

     (323,716     (25,194     (324,365     (132,941

Impact of second-lien terminations

     —          —          10,834        87,323   
                                

Total

   $ 69,190      $ 426,842      $ 1,257,978      $ 970,091   
                                

Average claim paid (1)

        

Prime

   $ 47.0      $ 44.4      $ 44.6      $ 43.5   

Alt-A

     59.8        56.6        57.5        55.2   

A minus and below

     39.4        38.0        37.6        38.6   

Total primary claims paid

     48.0        46.0        46.0        45.2   

Pool

     68.5        47.2        71.7        38.4   

Second-lien and other

     32.8        38.0        35.3        41.2   

Total

   $ 49.0      $ 45.5      $ 47.7      $ 44.5   

Average primary claim paid before reinsurance recoveries

   $ 51.7      $ 51.6      $ 52.5      $ 47.9   

Average total claim paid before reinsurance recoveries

   $ 52.4      $ 50.3      $ 53.6      $ 46.8   

Loss ratio - GAAP Basis

     212.5     242.5     234.0     179.6

Expense ratio - GAAP Basis

     22.3     18.5     24.0     23.2
                                
     234.8     261.0     258.0     202.8
                                

Reserve for losses by category

        

Prime

   $ 1,607,741      $ 1,265,859       

Alt-A

     687,960        767,043       

A minus and below

     413,137        456,281       

Reinsurance recoverable

     223,254  (2)      621,644       
                    

Total primary reserves

     2,932,092        3,110,827       

Pool insurance

     566,565        295,996       
                    

Total 1st lien reserves

     3,498,657        3,406,823       

Second-lien

     26,161        43,579       

Other

     153        136       
                    

Total reserves

   $ 3,524,971      $ 3,450,538       
                    

1st lien reserve per default (3)

        

Primary reserve per primary default

   $ 23,467      $ 20,921       

Pool reserve per pool default

     24,911        16,118       

Total 1st lien reserve per default

     23,689        20,393       

 

(1) Calculated net of reinsurance recoveries and without giving effect to the impact of first-lien, second-lien and captive terminations.
(2) Reinsurance recoverable on ceded losses related to captives ($130 million) and Smart Home ($93 million).
(3) Excludes defaults for which reserves have not been established because they were associated with transactions where no claim payment was anticipated primarily due to deductibles or where a partial reserve has been recorded that is less than the gross calculated reserve due to the presence of a deductible.

 

Page 17


Radian Group Inc.

Mortgage Insurance Supplemental Information

For the Quarter and Year Ended and as of December 31, 2010

Exhibit M

 

     December 31
2010
    December 31
2009
 

Default Statistics

    

Primary insurance:

    

Flow

    

Prime

    

Number of insured loans

     584,213        614,590   

Number of loans in default

     71,196        78,130   

Percentage of loans in default

     12.19     12.71

Alt-A

    

Number of insured loans

     51,765        60,616   

Number of loans in default

     17,934        22,177   

Percentage of loans in default

     34.65     36.59

A minus and below

    

Number of insured loans

     47,044        53,932   

Number of loans in default

     16,401        20,911   

Percentage of loans in default

     34.86     38.77

Total Flow

    

Number of insured loans

     683,022        729,138   

Number of loans in default

     105,531        121,218   

Percentage of loans in default

     15.45     16.62

Structured

    

Prime

    

Number of insured loans

     42,131        52,629   

Number of loans in default

     6,735        7,520   

Percentage of loans in default

     15.99     14.29

Alt-A

    

Number of insured loans

     20,234        43,615   

Number of loans in default

     6,635        15,295   

Percentage of loans in default

     32.79     35.07

A minus and below

    

Number of insured loans

     16,716        19,287   

Number of loans in default

     6,569        7,965   

Percentage of loans in default

     39.30     41.30

Total Structured

    

Number of insured loans

     79,081        115,531   

Number of loans in default

     19,939        30,780   

Percentage of loans in default

     25.21     26.64

Total Primary Insurance

    

Prime

    

Number of insured loans

     626,344        667,219   

Number of loans in default

     77,931        85,650   

Percentage of loans in default

     12.44     12.84

Alt-A

    

Number of insured loans

     71,999        104,231   

Number of loans in default

     24,569        37,472   

Percentage of loans in default

     34.12     35.95

A minus and below

    

Number of insured loans

     63,760        73,219   

Number of loans in default

     22,970        28,876   

Percentage of loans in default

     36.03     39.44

Total Primary Insurance

    

Number of insured loans

     762,103        844,669   

Number of loans in default (1)

     125,470        151,998   

Percentage of loans in default

     16.46     17.99

Pool insurance:

    

Number of loans in default (2)

     32,456        36,397   

 

(1) Includes an estimated 525 and 3,302 defaults at December 31, 2010 and December 31, 2009, respectively, for which reserves have not been established because they were associated with transactions where no claim payment was anticipated primarily due to deductibles or where a partial reserve has been recorded that is less than the gross calculated reserve due to the presence of a deductible.
(2) Includes an estimated 9,712 and 18,033 defaults at December 31, 2010 and December 31, 2009, respectively, for which reserves have not been established because they were associated with transactions where no claim payment was anticipated primarily due to deductibles or where a partial reserve has been recorded that is less than the gross calculated reserve due to the presence of a deductible.

 

Page 18


Radian Group Inc.

Mortgage Insurance Supplemental Information

For the Quarter and Year Ended and as of December 31, 2010

Exhibit N

 

     Quarter Ended
December  31
    Year Ended
December  31
 
     2010     2009     2010     2009  

Net Premiums Written (In thousands)

        

Primary and Pool Insurance

   $ 199,610      $ 166,188      $ 698,078      $ 650,060   

Second-lien (1)

     647        709        1,535        (41

International (1)

     292        (2,699     296        (19,943
                                

Total Net Premiums Written - Insurance

   $ 200,549      $ 164,198      $ 699,909      $ 630,076   
                                

Net Premiums Earned (In thousands)

        

Primary and Pool Insurance

   $ 198,196      $ 185,306      $ 727,484      $ 703,076   

Second-lien

     646        972        2,501        5,621   

International

     1,727        3,356        9,646        15,726   
                                

Total Net Premiums Earned - Insurance

   $ 200,569      $ 189,634      $ 739,631      $ 724,423   
                                

SMART HOME (In millions)

        

Ceded Premiums Written and Earned

   $ 2.4      $ 2.9      $ 9.8      $ 10.9   
                                

Net premiums earned - derivatives (In thousands) (2)

   $ 276      $ 470      $ 692      $ 2,257   
                                

1st Lien Captives

        

Premiums ceded to captives (In thousands)

   $ 8,834      $ 26,832      $ 83,384      $ 129,808   

% of total premiums

     4.2     12.5     10.2     15.4

NIW subject to captives (In thousands)

   $ —        $ 39,989      $ 129      $ 1,655,642   

% of primary NIW

     —          1.7     <1     9.8

IIF included in captives (3)

     10.6     29.3    

RIF included in captives (3)

     10.4     31.5    

Persistency (twelve months ended December 31)

     81.8     82.0    
     December 31
2010
    December 31
2009
             

SMART HOME

        

% of Primary RIF included in Smart Home Transactions (3)

     3.2     3.4    

 

(1) Reflects the impact of second-lien and international terminations.
(2) Included in change in fair value of derivative instruments.
(3) Radian reinsures the middle layer risk positions, while retaining a significant portion of the total risk comprising the first loss and most remote risk positions.

 

Page 19


Radian Group Inc.

Mortgage Insurance Supplemental Information

For the Quarter and Year Ended and as of December 31, 2010

Exhibit O

Reinsurance Progression Toward Attachment - Summary by Book Year (1)

 

($ in millions)                 December 31
2010
     December 31
2009
 

Book Year (2):

   Original
Book RIF
     Progression
to
Attachment
Point
    Gross
Current
RIF
     Ceded
Current
RIF(3)
     Net
Current
RIF
     Ever-to-Date
Incurred
Losses
     Reinsurance
Benefit (4)
     Gross
Current
RIF
     Ceded
Current
RIF(3)
     Net
Current
RIF
     Ever-to-Date
Incurred
Losses
     Reinsurance
Benefit (4)
 

Pre-2006

        0-50   $ 193       $ 38       $ 155       $ 77          $ 375       $ 62       $ 313       $ 142      

Pre-2006

        50-75     166         94         72         50            325         185         140         86      

Pre-2006

        75-99     146         83         63         59            557         231         326         127      

Pre-2006

        Attached        578         168         410         139       $ 51         1,673         452         1,221         381       $ 139   
                                                                                              

Pre-2006 Total

   $ 11,983         $ 1,083       $ 383       $ 700       $ 325       $ 51       $ 2,930       $ 930       $ 2,000       $ 736       $ 139   
                                                                                              

2006

        0-50   $ 2       $ —         $ 2       $ —            $ 1       $ —         $ 1       $ —        

2006

        50-75     —           —           —           —              16         1         15         1      

2006

        75-99     11         1         10         1            13         1         12         1      

2006

        Attached        369         40         329         95       $ 45         1,695         242         1,453         355       $ 163   
                                                                                              

2006 Total

   $ 773         $ 382       $ 41       $ 341       $ 96       $ 45       $ 1,725       $ 244       $ 1,481       $ 357       $ 163   
                                                                                              

2007

        0-50   $ —         $ —         $ —         $ —            $ 1       $ —         $ 1       $ —        

2007

        50-75     —           —           —           —              12         1         11         —        

2007

        75-99     9         1         8         1            15         1         14         1      

2007

        Attached        830         57         773         189       $ 78         3,446         391         3,055         437       $ 191   
                                                                                              

2007 Total

   $ 1,243         $ 839       $ 58       $ 781       $ 190       $ 78       $ 3,474       $ 393       $ 3,081       $ 438       $ 191   
                                                                                              

2008

        0-50   $ 122       $ 8       $ 114       $ 4          $ 298       $ 22       $ 276       $ 6      

2008

        50-75     34         2         32         1            149         8         141         6      

2008

        75-99     22         1         21         1            1,454         166         1,288         56      

2008

        Attached        454         45         409         51       $ 17         159         14         145         19       $ 11   
                                                                                              

2008 Total

   $ 881         $ 632       $ 56       $ 576       $ 57       $ 17       $ 2,060       $ 210       $ 1,850       $ 87       $ 11   
                                                                                              

2009

        0-50   $ 242       $ 12       $ 230       $ 1          $ 284       $ 12       $ 272       $ —        

2009

        50-75     —           —           —           —              —           —           —           —        

2009

        75-99     —           —           —           —              —           —           —           —        

2009

        Attached        —           —           —           —         $ —           —           —           —           —         $ —     
                                                                                              

2009 Total

   $ 288         $ 242       $ 12       $ 230       $ 1       $ —         $ 284       $ 12       $ 272       $ —         $ —     
                                                                                              

Quota Share

        0-50   $ —         $ —         $ —         $ —            $ —         $ —         $ —         $ —        

Quota Share

        50-75     —           —           —           —              —           —           —           —        

Quota Share

        75-99     —           —           —           —              —           —           —           —        

Quota Share

        Attached        89         29         60         26       $ 11         102         33         69         37       $ 17   
                                                                                              

Quota Share Total

   $ 313         $ 89       $ 29       $ 60       $ 26       $ 11       $ 102       $ 33       $ 69       $ 37       $ 17   
                                                                                              

Total Captive (Including Quota Share)

   $ 15,481         $ 3,267       $ 579       $ 2,688       $ 695       $ 202       $ 10,575       $ 1,822       $ 8,753       $ 1,655       $ 521   
                                                                                              

SmartHome

        0-50   $ 28       $ 12       $ 16       $ 14          $ 32       $ 14       $ 18       $ 12      

SmartHome

        50-75     —           —           —           —              71         29         42         23      

SmartHome

        75-99     63         29         34         26            —           —           —           —        

SmartHome

        Attached        909         445         464         475       $ 137         1,029         492         537         435       $ 143   
                                                                                              

Total SmartHome

   $ 3,900         $ 1,000       $ 486       $ 514       $ 515       $ 137       $ 1,132       $ 535       $ 597       $ 470       $ 143   
                                                                                              

 

(1) Data is presented in the aggregate for all trusts for captives with risk in force at each period end only. Actual trust attachment points and exit points vary by individual contract. The attachment point is calculated at the contract/deal level and is based on Total Incurred Losses which are defined as claims paid ever-to-date plus loss reserves.
(2) Book year figures may include loans from additional periods pursuant to reinsurance agreement terms and conditions.
(3) Risk ceded to reinsurers based on individual contract terms.
(4) Captive Benefit is defined as ceded reserves at period end plus ever-to-date claims paid by the trust for captives with risk in force at period end only. Reinsurance benefit excludes $324 million and $71 million of recoveries recognized from the terminations of certain captive reinsurance agreements during the years ended December 31, 2010 and December 31, 2009, respectively.

 

Page 20


Radian Group Inc.

Mortgage Insurance Supplemental Information

For the Quarter and Year Ended and as of December 31, 2010

Modified Pool

Exhibit P

 

($ in millions)    December 31
2010
    December 31
2009
 
     $      %     $      %  

Primary risk in force by policy year

          

2005 and prior

   $ 186         64.4   $ 243         41.7

2006

     41         14.2     98         16.8

2007

     55         19.0     235         40.3

2008

     7         2.4     7         1.2
                                  

Total

   $ 289         100.0   $ 583         100.0
                                  

Primary risk in force by product

          

Prime

   $ 74         25.6   $ 104         17.8

Alt-A

     197         68.2     456         78.2

A minus and below

     18         6.2     23         4.0
                                  

Total

   $ 289         100.0   $ 583         100.0
                                  

Primary insurance in force by product

          

Prime

   $ 671         22.2   $ 1,508         16.0

Alt-A

     2,216         73.1     7,649         81.2

A minus and below

     143         4.7     258         2.8
                                  

Total

   $ 3,030         100.0   $ 9,415         100.0
                                  

Reserve for losses (in thousands)

   $ 87,218         $ 239,824      

Default Statistics:

          

Primary Insurance:

          

Total modified pool (1)

          

Number of insured loans

        15,487           42,509   

Number of loans in default

        4,009           12,677   

Percentage of loans in default

        25.89        29.82

 

(1) Impacted by the termination of transactions in 2009 and 2010.

 

Page 21


LOGO

 

FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS

All statements in this new release that address events, developments or results that we expect or anticipate may occur in the future are “forward-looking statements” within the meaning of Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933, Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 and the United States (“U.S.”) Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. In most cases, forward-looking statements may be identified by words such as “anticipate,” “may,” “will,” “could,” “should,” “would,” “expect,” “intend,” “plan,” “goal,” “contemplate,” “believe,” “estimate,” “predict,” “project,” “potential,” “continue,” or the negative or other variations on these words and other similar expressions. These statements, which may include, without limitation, projections regarding our future performance and financial condition, are made on the basis of management’s current views and assumptions with respect to future events. Any forward-looking statement is not a guarantee of future performance and actual results could differ materially from those contained in the forward-looking statement. The forward-looking statements, as well as our prospects as a whole, are subject to risks and uncertainties, including the following:

 

 

changes in general financial and political conditions, such as the failure or significant delay of the U.S. economy to recover from the most recent recession or the U.S. economy reentering a recessionary period following a brief period of stabilization or even growth, the lack of meaningful liquidity in the capital markets or in the credit markets, a prolonged period of high unemployment rates and limited home price appreciation or further depreciation (which has resulted in some borrowers voluntarily defaulting on their mortgages when their mortgage balances exceed the value of their homes), changes or volatility in interest rates or consumer confidence, changes in credit spreads, changes in the way investors perceive the strength of private mortgage insurers or financial guaranty providers, or investor concern over the credit quality and specific risks faced by the particular businesses, municipalities or pools of assets covered by our insurance;

 

 

catastrophic events or further economic changes in geographic regions where our mortgage insurance or financial guaranty insurance is more concentrated;

 

 

our ability to successfully execute upon our capital plan for our mortgage insurance business (which depends, in part, on the performance of our financial guaranty portfolio), and if necessary, to obtain additional capital to support new business writings in our mortgage insurance business and the long-term liquidity needs of our holding company;

 

 

a further reduction in, or prolonged period of depressed levels of, home mortgage originations due to reduced liquidity in the lending market, tighter underwriting standards and the decrease in housing demand throughout the U.S.;

 

 

our ability to maintain adequate risk-to-capital ratios and surplus requirements in our mortgage insurance business in light of ongoing losses in this business and continued deterioration in our financial guaranty portfolio, which, in the absence of new capital, could depend on our ability to execute strategies for which regulatory and other approvals are required and may not be obtained;

 

Page 22


LOGO

 

 

 

our ability to continue to effectively mitigate our mortgage insurance and financial guaranty losses;

 

 

reduced opportunities for loss mitigation in markets where housing values do not appreciate or continue to decline;

 

 

a more rapid than expected decrease in the level of future insurance rescissions and claim denials from the current elevated levels, which rescissions and denials have materially mitigated our paid losses and resulted in a significant reduction in our loss reserves;

 

 

the negative impact our insurance rescissions and claim denials may have on our relationships with customers, including the potential loss of customers and the heightened risk of disputes and litigation, and, in the event that we are unsuccessful in defending our rescissions or denials, the need to reestablish loss reserves for, and reassume risk on, rescinded loans and pay additional claims;

 

 

the concentration of our mortgage insurance business among a relatively small number of large customers;

 

 

disruption in the servicing of mortgages covered by our insurance policies;

 

 

the aging of our mortgage insurance portfolio and changes in severity or frequency of losses associated with certain of our products that are riskier than traditional mortgage insurance or financial guaranty insurance policies;

 

 

the performance of our insured portfolio of higher risk loans, such as Alternative-A (“Alt-A”) and subprime loans, and of adjustable rate products, such as adjustable rate mortgages and interest-only mortgages;

 

 

a decrease in persistency rates of our mortgage insurance policies;

 

 

an increase in the risk profile of our existing mortgage insurance portfolio due to mortgage refinancing in the current housing market;

 

 

further downgrades or threatened downgrades of, or other ratings actions with respect to, our credit ratings or the ratings assigned by the major rating agencies to any of our rated insurance subsidiaries at any time (in particular, the credit rating of Radian Group Inc. and the financial strength ratings assigned to Radian Guaranty Inc.);

 

 

heightened competition for our mortgage insurance business from others such as the Federal Housing Administration, the Veterans’ Administration and private mortgage insurers (in particular, the FHA and those private mortgage insurers that have been assigned higher ratings from the major rating agencies or new entrants to the industry that are not burdened by legacy obligations);

 

 

changes in the charters or business practices of Federal National Mortgage Association (“Fannie Mae”) and Freddie Mac (together, the “GSEs”), the largest purchasers of mortgage loans that we insure, and our ability to remain an eligible provider to both Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae;

 

Page 23


LOGO

 

 

 

changes to the current system of housing finance, including the possibility of a new system in which private mortgage insurers are not required or their services are significantly limited in scope;

 

 

the effect of the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act (the “Dodd-Frank Act”) on the financial services industry in general, and on our mortgage insurance and financial guaranty businesses in particular, including whether and to what extent loans with mortgage insurance are considered “qualified residential mortgages” for purposes of the Dodd-Frank Act securitization provisions (a draft rule that defines “qualified residential mortgages” is expected shortly and the final rule is required by the Dodd-Frank Act on April 17, 2011) or “qualified mortgages” for purposes of the ability to repay provisions;

 

 

the application of existing federal or state consumer, lending, insurance, tax, securities and other applicable laws and regulations, or changes in these laws and regulations or the way they are interpreted; including, without limitation: (i) the outcome of existing, or the possibility of additional, lawsuits or investigations, and (ii) legislative and regulatory changes (a) affecting demand for private mortgage insurance, (b) limiting or restricting our use of (or increasing requirements for) additional capital and the products we may offer, or (c) affecting the form in which we execute credit protection or affecting our existing financial guaranty portfolio;

 

 

the possibility that we may fail to estimate accurately the likelihood, magnitude and timing of losses in connection with establishing loss reserves for our mortgage insurance or financial guaranty businesses or premium deficiencies for our mortgage insurance business, or to estimate accurately the fair value amounts of derivative instruments in our mortgage insurance and financial guaranty businesses in determining gains and losses on these contracts;

 

 

the ability of our primary insurance customers in our financial guaranty reinsurance business to provide appropriate surveillance and to mitigate losses adequately with respect to our assumed insurance portfolio;

 

 

volatility in our earnings caused by changes in the fair value of our derivative instruments and our need to reevaluate the possibility of a premium deficiency in our mortgage insurance business on a quarterly basis;

 

 

our ability to return to a period of sustained profitability, which would allow us to reverse all or a portion of the valuation allowance that was established against substantially all of our net deferred tax asset (DTA);

 

 

our ability to obtain the necessary regulatory approval to consummate the purchase of MIAC and to successfully develop and implement a strategy to utilize MIAC in the public finance financial guaranty market, which strategy may depend on, among other items, our ability to obtain necessary regulatory or other approvals, to attract third-party capital and to obtain ratings sufficient to support such strategy;

 

 

changes in accounting guidance from the Securities and Exchange Commission or the Financial Accounting Standards Board; and

 

Page 24


LOGO

 

 

 

legal and other limitations on amounts we may receive from our subsidiaries as dividends or through our tax- and expense-sharing arrangements with our subsidiaries.

For more information regarding these risks and uncertainties as well as certain additional risks that we face, you should refer to the Risk Factors detailed in Item 1A of Part II of our Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q for the quarterly period ended September 30, 2010. We caution you not to place undue reliance on these forward-looking statements, which are current only as of the date on which we issued this press release. We do not intend to, and we disclaim any duty or obligation to, update or revise any forward-looking statements made in this press release to reflect new information or future events or for any other reason.

###

 

Page 25