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8-K - ANR 8K 03-01-2010 - Alpha Natural Resources, Inc.anr8k03012010.htm
EXHIBIT 99.1
 
 
 
 
1
Investor Presentation
February/March, 2010
 
 

 
2
Forward Looking Statements
Statements in this presentation which are not statements of historical fact are “forward-looking
statements” within the Safe Harbor provision of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995.
Such statements are not guarantees of future performance. Many factors could cause our actual
results, performance or achievements, or industry results, to be materially different from any future
results, performance or achievements expressed or implied by such forward looking-statements.
These factors are discussed in detail in our Annual Report on Form 10-K, Quarterly Reports on
Form 10-Q and in our other filings with the SEC. We make forward-looking statements based on
currently available information, and we assume no obligation to update the statements made today
or contained in our Annual Report or other filings due to changes in underlying factors, new
information, future developments, or otherwise, except as required by law.
 
 

 
3
Coal Industry Themes - 2010
v Strong met coal pricing driven by growing
 Asian demand
v Met coal tightness increasing in the Atlantic
 basin as economic recovery continues
v Significant recent utility inventory draw - U.S.
 thermal market positioned to strengthen
v Future worldwide demand for thermal coal
 anticipated to strain seaborne supply
 
 

 
4
4
Strong Market Outlook
 
 

 
5
U.S. Thermal Coal Market Recovering
 Severe winter weather caused utility inventories to fall by an estimated 30+MTs since
 Nov.
 U.S. thermal coal production unlikely to expand in 2010 and may decline further
 Economic recovery likely to drive increased industrial electricity demand
 Forward natural gas prices indicate that some fuel switching should reverse in 2010
 Global recovery and weak dollar should drive increasing net exports from the U.S.
 Crossover met coal may further reduce available supply in the U.S.
 New coal-fired generation will increase demand
SOURCE: DOE NETL, Internal Analysis, Genscape
Given the rapid drawdown in utility
inventories in the opening weeks of
2010, forecasts of normal inventories
by late 2010 may prove conservative
 
 

 
6
Robust Global Coal Market: Asia Is Key
Global demand growth, driven primarily by China, is staggering
Global Coal Consumption (mm tons)
Chinese Net Imports (mm tonnes)
SOURCE: Energy Information Administration, International Energy Outlook; International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook; Internal Analysis
 Among the countries representing most of the world’s coal use, coal consumption is forecast to increase
 35% in 20 years (2010 - 2030)
 China is forecast to account for over 80% of this growth of more than 2BTs in annual demand, increasing
 its annual coal consumption by nearly 60% between 2010 and 2030
 China’s rapid move to net importer is a well-documented game changer
 India’s coal consumption is forecast to rise nearly 40% between 2010 and 2030
 Considering that the U.S. produces ~1BTs per year…where will the coal come from to satisfy this
 incremental increase in demand?
 
 

 
7
China & India Rely on Coal-fired Electricity
2010E: 80% coal-fired
2030E: 77% coal-fired
2010E: 66% coal-fired
2030E: 69% coal-fired
(Indian thermal coal imports have grown at 13% CAGR from 1990 - 2008)
Source: IEA; Booz & Company analysis
 
 

 
8
Source: Wood Mackenzie; Booz & Company analysis
China = 14.8% CAGR
ROW = 1.5% CAGR
Scarcity of Metallurgical Coal
Global Steel Production
Metallurgical Coal Pricing (US$)
 As global steel production has grown, metallurgical coal has come to be viewed as a scarce
 and differentiated product
 When worldwide production of steel exceeds 1.3 billion tons, the supply of met coal becomes
 strained and incremental pricing can rise sharply as was seen in 2008
 While new projects are planned in places like Mozambique, Mongolia and Siberia, and
 additional projects are planned in Australia, all must overcome various infrastructure
 limitations or political challenges
 Supply constraints are likely to persist for several years
 
 

 
9
China Driving Worldwide Met Demand
Chinese Growth is Permanently Changing Global Seaborne Met Coal Trading Dynamics
 Chinese crude steel production increased an estimated 14% in 2009, and China now produces nearly half
 of the world’s steel
 China imported 34M tonnes of Met coal in 2009, or ~15% of the World’s seaborne supply
 Chinese demand will be satisfied primarily by Australia, which is near its current export capacity
 Availability of seaborne coking coal, which totaled an estimated 240M tonnes in 2008, will be constrained
 by the growth of Chinese imports
 Worldwide steel production is estimated to be on an annual pace of greater than1.3B tonnes, with over
 600M tonnes expected from China alone in 2010
SOURCE: China’s National Bureau of Statistics, Chinese Customs, Macquarie, Internal Analysis
 
 

 
10
Met Demand Accelerating in Atlantic Basin
Met Coal Demand in the Atlantic Basin Should Increase As Developed
Economies Recover and Steel Production Ramps Up
* ANR is the leading U.S. supplier & exporter of metallurgical coal with 13-14MTPA export capacity*
 Domestic producers’ rapid response to the recession in 2009 drove U.S. service center inventories to 26-
 yr. lows, despite anemic demand for steel—restocking is now occurring
 U.S. steel production capacity utilization has increased to the mid-60% range, up from ‘09 lows in the 30s
 The combination of strong Chinese demand and increasing steel capacity utilization in the U.S. and the
 rest of the world should drive accelerating Atlantic basin met coal demand in 2010 and beyond
SOURCE: Metals Service Center Institute, American Iron and Steel Institute, Macquarie, Internal Analysis
 
 

 
11
Trends in Seaborne Trading Patterns
Decreasing trend
Increasing trend
Spare capacity provides opportunity to ramp exports to meet global demand
As Asian Demand Absorbs Seaborne Supply, The Atlantic Basin Will Increasingly Rely on U.S. Coals
 
 

 
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12
Investment Highlights
 
 

 
13
2009 Year-end Reserves = 2.3 BTs
2009 Revenue Mix by Coal Type
Following our merger on July 31, 2009, Alpha has delivered consistent execution
demonstrating the benefit of the company’s enhanced scale and diversification.
*ANR is arguably the most regionally diversified producer in the U.S. today*
(1)  Third quarter 2009 amounts previously reported have been adjusted by $3.2 million, $0.03 per share, due to reduced expense.
 
 

 
14
High Margin Longwall Mining in NAPP
 Alpha operates two low-cost, high-margin longwall mines in the Pittsburgh #8 seam:
 Cumberland and Emerald
 In 4Q09, the longwalls accounted for 3M tons, or 45% of Eastern steam coal shipments, and on
 a pro forma basis these mines shipped 12.1M tons in 2009
 Cost of coal sales were the low to mid-$30s per ton for 4Q09 and pro forma full year 2009, while
 average realizations were in the mid-$50s
 Even in the relatively weak thermal coal market of 2009, these mines contributed approximately
 $20/ton of gross coal margins, contributing pro forma total margin of $230 to $240 million
 Due to higher average realizations in the committed and priced book of business, per ton coal
 margins in 2010 are expected to increase despite higher anticipated per ton costs
* Longwall mines are highly profitable compared to other Eastern steam operations*
 
 

 
15
Pacing to Meet or Exceed Synergy Target
Additional upside possible, primarily driven by additional blending and
optimization opportunities depending on future market conditions
Annual net synergies conservatively estimated at $45 million at full
run-rate anticipated to be achieved by mid-year 2010
 
 

 
16
Consistent History of Positive Cash Flow
Note: Pro forma capex for 2008 and 2009 includes Lease-By-Application (LBA) bonus bid payments of $36.1 million each year.
FCF = Operating cash flow less capex
 
 

 
17
Excellent Liquidity and Low Leverage
Note: LTM data as of 12/31/09
(1)  LTM combined pro forma Adjusted EBITDA for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2009
Leverage of approximately 1.2x debt/Adjusted EBITDA and liquidity of approximately $1.1 billion
($ millions)
Maturity
 
As of
12/31/09
 
 
 
 
 
$650mm Revolving Credit Facility
July, 2011
 
$0
Term Loan A
July, 2011
 
285
2.375% Convertible Notes
April, 2015
 
288
7.25% Senior Unsecured Bonds
August, 2014
 
298
 
Total Debt
 
 
$871
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Liquidity and Credit Statistics
 
 
 
Cash & Equivalents and marketable
securities
 
 
$584
Revolver
 
 
650
Accounts Receivable Securitization Facility
 
 
150
Less: Letters of Credit Outstanding
 
 
(258)
 
Total Potential Liquidity
 
 
$1,126
 
 
 
 
 
Total Debt / LTM EBITDA
 
 
1.2x
 
 
 
 
 
LTM Adjusted EBITDA1
 
 
$709
 
 

 
18
A Leader in the Domestic Coal Industry
Eastern Coal Operations
Illinois Basin
Western Coal Operations
 Production capacity
55.0
 2009 Shipments
50.1
 Reserves
709
 Reserves
26
 Production Capacity
42.0
 2009 Shipments
36.0
 Reserves
1579
Note: Figures pro forma as of 12/31/09
Strength, Scale, Diversification
 
 

 
19
(2)CLD revenue, tons sold and EBITDA as reported for the 12 months ended 12/31/08
(3)JRCC revenue, tons sold and EBITDA as reported for the twelve months ended 09/30/09
Market Capitalization1 ($ in billions)
LTM 12/31/09 Tons Sold 2 3 (in millions)
Peer Group Comparisons
 
 

 
20
Powder River Basin
Wyoming Operations
Expansion (MM tons/yr)
Capacity
Truck/shovel expansion
10
65 MTPY
Belle Ayr LBA
200 Million Tons
2011
Central Appalachia
Mine
Resource Description
Production
Deep Mine #41
~ 70 MM Ton Reserve
1.0 - 1.2 MTPY (metallurgical)
Harts Creek/Atenville
~ 120 MM Ton Reserve
2 - 3 MTPY (metallurgical potential)
Northern Appalachia
Mine
Resource Description
Production
Foundation - longwall
~ 420 MM Ton Reserve
7 - 14 MTPY Pitt #8 (+ Sewickley)
Freeport - CM
~ 68 MM Ton Reserve
2 - 3 MTPY (metallurgical)
Coal Gas Recovery
Location
Resource Description
Production
CBM
~ 100-200 Bcf Resource
~ 5,000 Salable Mcf/Day (current)
Marcellus acreage
~ 18,000 Acres
Entered into JV with Rice Energy 2010
Organic Growth Opportunities
 
 

 
21
 50/50 Joint Venture with Rice Energy, LP
 Alpha controls ~18,000 acres of Marcellus in
 Greene and Washington Counties of Pennsylvania
 Initial phase underway, currently drilling the first of
 four wells planned for 2010
 Each partner committing acreage and cash
 Total phase 1 capital anticipated to be less than
 $20 million
 JV potential to develop ~100 wells in the Marcellus
 Separately, Alpha’s CBM gas processing plant
 expanding from capacity of 5,000 MCF/day to
 10,000 MCF/day
Unconventional Gas Development
 
 

 
 
22
Summary of Recent Guidance
NOTES:  
1. Based on committed and priced coal shipments as of February 8, 2010.
2. Eastern shipments in 2010 and 2011 include an estimated 2.0 to 3.0 million tons of brokered coal per year.
3. As of February 8, 2010, compared to the midpoint of shipment guidance range.
4. In 2010, committed and un-priced Eastern tons include approximately 1.8 million tons of met coal subject to market pricing, approximately 0.2 million tons of steam coal subject to market
pricing, and 0.5 million tons of steam coal subject to collared pricing with an average pricing range of $65.00 to $76.00 per ton. In 2011, committed and unpriced Eastern tons include
approximately 5.9 million tons of met coal subject to market pricing, approximately 3.3 million of steam coal subject to market pricing, approximately 2.9 million tons of steam coal subject to
collared pricing with an average pricing range of $50.00 to $62.00 per ton, and legacy contracts covering approximately 0.4 million tons of steam coal subject to average indexed pricing
estimated at $69.21 per ton.
Guidance
(in millions, except per-ton and percentage amounts)
 
2010
2011
Average per Ton Sales Realization on
Committed and Priced Coal
Shipments1
 
 
 West
$10.93
$11.93
 Eastern Steam
$65.54
$67.03
 Eastern Met
$104.63
$123.97
Coal Shipments2
81.0 - 89.0
82.0 - 94.0
 West
47.0 - 50.0
48.0 - 52.0
 Eastern Steam
23.0 - 26.0
23.0 - 28.0
 Eastern Met
11.0 - 13.0
11.0 - 14.0
Committed and Priced (%)3
92%
59%
 West
100%
77%
 Eastern Steam
93%
44%
 Eastern Met
62%
15%
Committed and Un-priced (%)4
3%
14%
 West
0%
0%
 Eastern Steam
3%
26%
 Eastern Met
15%
47%
West - Cost of Coal Sales per Ton
$8.30 - $8.90
 
East - Cost of Coal Sales per Ton
$54.00 -
$57.00
 
Selling, General & Administrative
Expense
$150 - $165
 
Depletion, Depreciation &
Amortization
$370 - $390
 
Interest Expense
$70 - $80
 
Capital Expenditures
$340 - $390
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

 
23
Recent Valuation Comparison 2/19/10
Notes: Market data and First Call consensus 2010 EBITDA estimates as of 2/19/10
< 50 MM TPY, regional
> 50 MM TPY, diversified
> 50 MM TPY, regional
Compelling Relative Valuation
ANR
 
 

 
24
Coal Industry Themes
v Strong met coal pricing driven by growing
 Asian demand
v Met coal tightness increasing in the Atlantic
 basin as economic recovery continues
v Significant utility inventory draw - U.S.
 thermal market positioned to strengthen
v Future worldwide demand for thermal coal
 anticipated to strain seaborne supply
ü ANR is the largest supplier of met coal in the
 U.S. and anticipates sales into Asia in 2010
ü ANR is the largest exporter of met coal with 13
 -14 MTs of export terminal capacity
ü ANR’s operations in NAPP, CAPP and PRB
 can respond quickly to increased demand
ü Low-cost production and export capacity
 enable ANR to participate in global thermal
 demand
 
 

 
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25
Appendices
 
 

 
26
3Q09 Reconciliation of Adjusted EBIDTA
 
 

 
27
3Q09 Reconciliation of Adjusted Income
 
 

 
28
4Q09 Reconciliation of Adjusted EBIDTA
 
 

 
29
4Q09 Reconciliation of Adjusted Income
 
 

 
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