Attached files

file filename
8-K - 8-K - ASSURED GUARANTY LTDa2195576z8-k.htm

QuickLinks -- Click here to rapidly navigate through this document


Exhibit 99.1

GRAPHIC


ASSURED GUARANTY LTD. FINANCIAL SUPPLEMENT

THIRD QUARTER ENDED SEPTEMBER 30, 2009


TABLE OF CONTENTS

 
  Page

Selected Financial Highlights

  1

Consolidated Income Statements

  2

Consolidated Balance Sheets

  3

Adjusted Book Value

  4

Consolidated Capital and Claims Paying Resources

  5

New Business Production

  6

Segment Consolidation

  7-10

Financial Guaranty Direct Segment

  11-12

Financial Guaranty Reinsurance Segment

  13-14

Investment Portfolio

  15

Estimated Net Exposure Amortization

  16

Estimated Net Unearned Premium Amortization and Estimated Net Future Installment Premiums

  17

Financial Guaranty Profile

  18-21

Pooled Corporate Obligations Profile

  22-23

Consolidated U.S. Residential Mortgage-Backed Securities Profile

  24-27

Financial Guaranty Direct U.S. RMBS Profile

  28-32

Financial Guaranty Direct U.S. CMBS Profile

  33

Consumer Receivables Profile

  34-35

Financial Guaranty Direct Credit Derivative Exposures Profile

  36-37

Unrealized Gains (Losses) on Credit Derivatives

  38

Below Investment Grade Exposures

  39-42

Largest Exposures by Sector

  43-46

Surveillance Categories

  47

Loss and LAE Reserves

  48

Loss and Loss Adjustment Expenses

  49

Summary Financial and Statistical Data

  50-51

Glossary

  52

Endnotes Related to Non-GAAP Financial Measures

  53

        This supplement should be read in conjunction with documents filed by Assured Guaranty Ltd. ("AGL" and together with its subsidiaries, "Assured Guaranty" or the "Company") with the Securities and Exchange Commission ("SEC"), including Assured Guaranty's Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2008, Assured Guaranty's Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q for the three-month period ended March 31, 2009, Assured Guaranty's Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q for the three- and six month period ended June 30, 2009 and, when filed with the SEC, Assured's Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q for the three and nine month period ended September 30, 2009.


        September 30, 2009 amounts in this Financial Supplement include the consolidated results of Financial Security Assurance Holdings Ltd. ("FSAH"), which Assured Guaranty acquired on July 1, 2009.

        Some amounts in this Financial Supplement may not add due to rounding.

Cautionary Statement Regarding Forward-Looking Statements:

        Any forward-looking statements made in this supplement reflect the current views of Assured Guaranty with respect to future events and financial performance and are made pursuant to the safe harbor provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Such statements involve risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from those set forth in these statements. For example, the Company's forward looking statements could be affected by many events. These events include (1) rating agency action, including a ratings downgrade of the Company or its affiliates and/or of transactions insured by the Company or its affiliates, both of which have occurred in the past; (2) developments in the world's financial and capital markets that adversely affect issuers' payment rates, the Company's loss experience, its ability to cede exposure to reinsurers, its access to capital, its unrealized (losses) gains on derivative financial instruments or its investment returns; (3) changes in the credit markets, segments thereof or general economic conditions; (4) more severe or frequent losses affecting the adequacy of the Company's loss reserves; (5) the impact of market volatility on the mark-to-market of the Company's contracts written in credit default swap form; (6) reduction in the amount of reinsurance facultative cessions or portfolio opportunities available to the Company; (7) decreased demand or increased competition; (8) changes in applicable accounting policies or practices; (9) changes in applicable laws or regulation, including insurance and tax laws; (10) other governmental actions; (11) difficulties with the execution of the Company's business strategy; (12) contract cancellations; (13) the Company's dependence on customers; (14) loss of key personnel; (15) adverse technological developments; (16) the effects of mergers, acquisitions and divestitures; (17) natural or man-made catastrophes; (18) other risks and uncertainties that have not been identified at this time; (19) management's response to these factors; and (20) other risk factors identified in Assured's filings with the SEC. Readers are cautioned not to place undue reliance on these forward looking statements, which speak only as of the dates on which they are made. The Company undertakes no obligation to publicly update or revise any forward looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise.



ASSURED GUARANTY LTD.

SELECTED FINANCIAL HIGHLIGHTS

(dollars in millions, except per share amounts)

 
  Quarter Ended
September 30,
   
  Nine Months Ended
September 30,
   
 
 
  % Change
versus
3Q-08
  % Change
versus
YTD 2008
 
 
  2009   2008   2009   2008  

Operating income reconciliation:

                                     
 

Operating income(b)

  $ 70.1   $ 26.0     170 % $ 160.9   $ 71.0     127 %
 

Plus: Realized gains (losses) on investments, after tax

    (6.0 )   (17.1 )   (65 )%   (30.2 )   (15.9 )   90 %
 

Plus: Non-credit impairment unrealized gains (losses) on credit derivatives, after tax

    (41.3 )   (76.7 )   (46 )%   (165.8 )   241.8     NM  
 

Plus: Unrealized gains (losses) on committed capital securities, after tax

    (34.5 )   4.5     NM     (61.1 )   15.8     NM  
 

Plus: Goodwill and settlement of intercompany relationship, net

    (23.3 )       NM     (23.3 )       NM  
                               
 

Net income (loss) attributable to Assured Guaranty Ltd

  $ (35.0 ) $ (63.3 )   (45 )% $ (119.5 ) $ 312.7     (138 )%
                               

Return on equity ("ROE") calculations:

                                     
 

ROE, excluding unrealized gain (loss) on investment portfolio

    (5.7 )%   (11.4 )%         (7.0 )%   21.9 %      
 

Operating ROE(c)

    8.8 %   4.4 %         7.4 %   4.3 %      

Earnings per diluted share:(1)

                                     
 

Operating income(b)

  $ 0.44   $ 0.28     57 % $ 1.39   $ 0.81     72 %
 

Plus: Realized gains (losses) on investments, after tax

    (0.04 )   (0.19 )   (79 )%   (0.27 )   (0.18 )   50 %
 

Plus: Non-credit impairment unrealized gains (losses) on credit derivatives, after tax

    (0.26 )   (0.84 )   (69 )%   (1.46 )   2.76     NM  
 

Plus: Unrealized gains (losses) on committed capital securities, after tax

    (0.22 )   0.05     NM     (0.54 )   0.18     NM  
 

Plus: Goodwill and settlement of intercompany relationship, net

    (0.15 )       NM     (0.21 )       NM  
                               
 

Net income (loss) attributable to Assured Guaranty Ltd.(2)

  $ (0.22 ) $ (0.69 )   (68 )% $ (1.05 ) $ 3.54     (130 )%
                               

Other information:

                                     
 

Net debt service outstanding

                    $ 967,440   $ 355,712     172 %
 

Net par outstanding

                      646,630     227,342     184 %
 

Claims-paying resources

                      12,643     5,082     149 %
 

Gross par written

    9,097     10,776     (16 )% $ 41,934   $ 48,859     (14 )%

(1)
Effective January 1, 2009, the Company adopted FASB Accounting Standards Codification ("ASC") 260-10, "Earnings Per Share" (FSP EITF 03-6-1, "Determining Whether Instruments Granted in Share-Based Payment Transactions Are Participating Securities"), which clarifies that share-based payment awards that entitle their holders to receive nonforfeitable dividends or dividend equivalents before vesting should be considered participating securities and shall be included in the calculation of basic and diluted net income (loss) per share. Upon retrospective adoption of ASC 260-10, Assured decreased previously reported diluted net loss per share by $0.01 for Q3 2008 and decreased previously reported diluted net income per share by $0.01 for nine months 2008. Operating income, a non-GAAP financial measure, for both periods is positive, therefore the per diluted share calculation ignores the effect of ASC 260-10 and includes the effect of dilutive securities.

(2)
Total may not add due to differences in calculating GAAP and non-GAAP per diluted share amounts.

Note: Please refer to endnotes for explanation of non-GAAP financial measures [operating income (b) and operating ROE (c)].

NM = Not meaningful

1



ASSURED GUARANTY LTD.

CONSOLIDATED INCOME STATEMENTS

(dollars and shares in millions, except per share amounts)

 
  Quarter Ended
September 30,
   
  Nine Months Ended
September 30,
   
 
 
  % Change
versus
3Q-08
  % Change
versus
YTD 2008
 
 
  2009   2008   2009   2008  

Revenues

                                     
 

Net earned premiums(1)

  $ 330.0   $ 85.5     286 % $ 557.1   $ 184.0     203 %
 

Net investment income

    84.7     43.4     95 %   171.6     120.2     43 %
 

Realized gains on credit derivatives(2)

    57.3     30.0     91 %   114.8     89.0     29 %
 

Incurred losses on credit derivatives

    (142.2 )   (10.1 )   NM     (178.5 )   (18.5 )   NM  
 

Other income

    58.7     0.3     NM     60.1     0.4     NM  
                               
 

Total revenues

    388.5     149.1     161 %   725.1     375.1     93 %

Expenses

                                     
 

Loss and loss adjustment expenses(1)

    133.3     82.5     62 %   251.1     175.8     43 %
 

Profit commission expense

    0.2     (1.4 )   NM     2.5     0.8     213 %
 

Amortization of deferred acquisition costs(1)

    1.3     19.3     (93 )%   41.3     43.0     (4 )%
 

Other operating expenses

    66.2     21.6     206 %   116.5     69.9     67 %
 

FSAH acquisition-related expenses

    51.3         NM     80.2         NM  
 

Interest and related expenses

    27.7     7.3     279 %   43.3     21.4     102 %
                               
 

Total expenses

    280.0     129.3     117 %   534.9     310.9     72 %
                               
 

Operating income before provision (benefit) for income taxes

    108.5     19.8     448 %   190.2     64.2     196 %
 

Total provision (benefit) for income taxes

    38.4     (6.2 )   NM     29.3     (6.8 )   NM  
                               
 

Operating income(b)

    70.1     26.0     170 %   160.9     71.0     127 %
 

Plus: Realized gains (losses) on investments, after tax

   
(6.0

)
 
(17.1

)
 
(65

)%
 
(30.2

)
 
(15.9

)
 
90

%
 

Plus: Non-credit impairment unrealized gains (losses) on credit derivatives, after tax

    (41.3 )   (76.7 )   (46 )%   (165.8 )   241.8     NM  
 

Plus: Unrealized gains (losses) on committed capital securities, after tax

    (34.5 )   4.5     NM     (61.1 )   15.8     NM  
 

Plus: Goodwill and settlement of intercompany relationship, net

    (23.3 )       NM     (23.3 )       NM  
                               
 

Net income (loss) attributable to Assured Guaranty Ltd

  $ (35.0 ) $ (63.3 )   (45 )% $ (119.5 ) $ 312.7     (138 )%
                               

Effect of refundings and accelerations, net

                                     
 

Earned premiums from refundings and accelerations, net

  $ 17.4   $ 31.7     (45 )% $ 127.7   $ 36.2     253 %
 

Operating income effect

  $ 9.9   $ 20.4     (51 )% $ 87.5   $ 22.7     285 %
 

Operating income per diluted share effect

  $ 0.06   $ 0.22     (73 )% $ 0.76   $ 0.26     192 %

Weighted average shares outstanding

                                     
 

Basic shares outstanding—GAAP(3) (for net income (loss) per share calculation)

    156.3     90.9     72 %   113.6     87.0     31 %
 

Diluted shares outstanding—GAAP(3) (for net income (loss) per share calculation)

    156.3     90.9     72 %   113.6     87.5     30 %
 

Diluted shares outstanding—non-GAAP(3) (for operating income per share calculation)

    160.1     91.5     75 %   115.4     88.1     31 %
 

Shares outstanding at the end of period

    156.6     90.9     72 %                  

(1)
The Company adopted ASC 944-20, "Financial Services—Insurance" (FAS No. 163, "Accounting for Financial Guarantee Insurance Contracts") effective January 1, 2009.

(2)
Includes revenue earned on credit derivatives.

(3)
Effective January 1, 2009, the Company adopted ASC 260-10, which clarifies that share-based payment awards that entitle their holders to receive nonforfeitable dividends or dividend equivalents before vesting should be considered participating securities and shall be included in the calculation of basic and diluted net income (loss) per share. Upon retrospective adoption of ASC 260-10, Assured revised basic and diluted shares outstanding under GAAP. Operating income, a non-GAAP financial measure, for both periods is positive, therefore the diluted shares outstanding under non-GAAP ignores the effect of ASC 260-10 and includes the effect of dilutive securities.

Note: Please refer to endnotes for explanation of non-GAAP financial measures [operating income (b)].

NM = Not meaningful

2



ASSURED GUARANTY LTD.

CONSOLIDATED BALANCE SHEETS

(dollars in millions)

 
  As of :  
 
  September 30, 2009   December 31, 2008  

Assets

             
 

Investment portfolio, available-for-sale:

             
   

Fixed maturity securities, at fair value

  $ 8,448.1   $ 3,154.1  
   

Short-term investments

    1,492.9     477.2  
           
 

Total investment portfolio

    9,941.0     3,631.3  
 

Assets acquired in refinancing transactions

   
159.2
   
 
 

Cash

    260.5     12.3  
 

Premiums receivable, net(1)

    1,504.0     15.7  
 

Ceded unearned premium reserve(1)

    1,163.1     18.9  
 

Deferred acquisition costs(1)

    243.6     288.6  
 

Reinsurance recoverable on paid and unpaid losses(1)

    5.8     6.5  
 

Credit derivative assets

    462.3     147.0  
 

Committed capital securities, at fair value

    38.5     51.1  
 

Deferred tax asset, net(1)

    1,093.6     129.1  
 

Goodwill

        85.4  
 

Salvage recoverable(1)

    184.4     80.2  
 

Financial guaranty variable interest entities' assets

    846.9      
 

Other assets

    299.7     89.6  
           

Total assets

  $ 16,202.6   $ 4,555.7  
           

Liabilities and shareholders' equity

             

Liabilities

             
 

Unearned premium reserves(1)

  $ 8,632.7   $ 1,233.7  
 

Loss and loss adjustment expense reserve(1)

    218.7     196.8  
 

Long-term debt

    915.2     347.2  
 

Note payable to related party

    155.8      
 

Credit derivative liabilities

    2,100.5     733.8  
 

Funds held under reinsurance contracts

    30.2     30.7  
 

Reinsurance balances payable, net(1)

    179.3     18.0  
 

Financial guaranty variable interest entities' liabilities

    851.4      
 

Other liabilities

    321.7     69.4  
           

Total liabilities

    13,405.5     2,629.5  

Shareholders' equity

             
 

Common stock

    1.6     0.9  
 

Additional paid-in capital

    2,010.8     1,284.4  
 

Retained earnings(1)(2)

    580.2     638.1  
 

Accumulated other comprehensive income (loss)(2)

    209.0     2.9  
           
 

Total shareholders' equity attributable to Assured Guaranty Ltd

    2,801.6     1,926.2  
 

Noncontrolling interest in consolidated VIEs

    (4.5 )    
           
 

Total shareholders' equity

    2,797.1     1,926.2  
           

Total liabilities and shareholders' equity

  $ 16,202.6   $ 4,555.7  
           

(1)
The Company adopted ASC 944-20 effective January 1, 2009.

(2)
The Company adopted ASC 320-10-65-1, "Investments—Debt and Equity Securities" (FSP No. FAS 115-2 and FAS 124-2, "Recognition and Presentation of Other-Than-Temporary Impairments") effective April 1, 2009. The adoption of this accounting rule increased retained earnings and decreased accumulated other comprehensive income (loss) by $57.7 million.

3



ASSURED GUARANTY LTD.

ADJUSTED BOOK VALUE

(dollars in millions, except per share amounts)

 
  As of :    
 
 
  September 30,
2009
  December 31,
2008
  % Change
versus
12/31/2008
 

Adjusted book value reconciliation:

                   
 

Book value attributable to Assured Guaranty Ltd

  $ 2,801.6   $ 1,926.2     45 %
 

Less: Non-credit impairment unrealized gains (losses) on credit derivatives, after tax

    (905.4 )   (422.7 )   114 %
 

Less: Unrealized gains (losses) on committed capital securities, after tax

    25.0     33.2     (25 )%
 

Less: Unrealized gain (loss) on investment portfolio excluding foreign exchange effect

    207.5     (3.4 )   NM  
                 
 

Operating shareholders' equity

  $ 3,474.5   $ 2,319.1     50 %
 

Less: Deferred acquisition costs ("DAC"), after tax

    238.9     260.6     (8 )%
 

Plus: Net present value of estimated future credit derivative revenue, after tax(e)

    562.1     708.3     (21 )%
 

Plus: Unearned premium reserve on financial guaranty contracts in excess of expected loss, after tax(2)

    4,713.8     1,033.4     356 %
 

Plus: Unearned revenue on credit derivatives, after tax(3)

    36.9     17.6     110 %
                 
 

Adjusted book value(d)

  $ 8,548.4   $ 3,817.8     124 %
                 

Adjusted book value per share reconciliation:

                   
 

Book value attributable to Assured Guaranty Ltd

  $ 17.89   $ 21.18     (16 )%
 

Less: Non-credit impairment unrealized gains (losses) on credit derivatives, after tax

    (5.78 )   (4.65 )   24 %
 

Less: Unrealized gains (losses) on committed capital securities, after tax

    0.16     0.36     (56 )%
 

Less: Unrealized gain (loss) on investment portfolio excluding foreign exchange effect

    1.33     (0.04 )   NM  
                 
 

Operating shareholders' equity per share

  $ 22.19   $ 25.50     (13 )%
 

Less: DAC, after tax

    1.53     2.87     (47 )%
 

Plus: Net present value of estimated future credit derivative revenue, after tax(e)

    3.59     7.79     (54 )%
 

Plus: Unearned premium reserve on financial guaranty contracts in excess of expected loss, after tax(2)

    30.10     11.36     165 %
 

Plus: Unearned revenue on credit derivatives, after tax(3)

    0.24     0.19     26 %
                 
 

Adjusted book value(d)

  $ 54.59   $ 41.97     30 %
                 

(1)
The Company adopted ASC 944-20 effective January 1, 2009. The adoption of this accounting rule had an effect of $19.4 million on January 1, 2009 book value.

(2)
Unearned premium reserve (UPR) less ceded unearned premiums, after tax.

(3)
Unearned revenue less ceded unearned premiums on credit derivatives, after tax.

Note: Please refer to endnotes for explanation of non-GAAP financial measures [adjusted book value (d) and net present value of estimated future installment premiums in force (e)].

NM = Not meaningful

4



ASSURED GUARANTY LTD.

CONSOLIDATED CAPITAL AND CLAIMS PAYING RESOURCES

(dollars in millions)

 
  As of September 30, 2009  
 
  Assured
Guaranty
Corp.
  Assured
Guaranty Re
Ltd.(1)
  Assured
Guaranty
Municipal
Corp.
  Consolidated  

Claims paying resources

                         
 

Policyholders' surplus

  $ 179   $ 1,147   $ 1,140   $ 2,466  
 

Contingency reserve

    772         1,226     1,998  
                   
   

Qualified statutory capital

    951     1,147     2,366     4,464  
 

Unearned premium reserve

    838     857     2,380     4,075  
 

Loss and loss adjustment expense reserves

    209     68     1,105     1,382  
                   
   

Total policyholders' surplus and reserves

    1,998     2,072     5,851     9,921  
 

Present value of installment premium(e)(2)

    639     360     824     1,823  
 

Standby line of credit/stop loss

    200     200     498     898  
                   
   

Total claims paying resources

  $ 2,837   $ 2,632   $ 7,173   $ 12,642  
                   
 

Net par insured outstanding(3)

  $ 128,854   $ 116,295   $ 388,950   $ 631,742  
 

Net debt service outstanding(3)

  $ 183,396   $ 190,235   $ 581,685   $ 950,565  
 

Ratios:

                         
   

Net par insured to statutory capital

    135:1     101:1     164:1     142:1  
   

Capital ratio(4)

    193:1     166:1     246:1     213:1  
   

Financial resources ratio(5)

    65:1     72:1     81:1     75:1  

(1)
Assured Guaranty Re Ltd. ("AG Re") numbers are the Company's estimate of U.S. statutory as these Companies file Bermuda statutory financial statements.

(2)
Includes financial guaranty and credit derivatives.

(3)
Statutory basis.

(4)
The capital ratio is calculated by dividing net debt service outstanding by qualified statutory capital.

(5)
The financial resources ratio is calculated by dividing net debt service outstanding by total claims paying resources.

Note: Please refer to endnotes for explanation of non-GAAP financial measures [net present value of estimated future installment premiums in force (e)].

5



ASSURED GUARANTY LTD.

NEW BUSINESS PRODUCTION

(dollars in millions)

 
  Quarter Ended
September 30,
   
  Nine Months Ended
September 30,
   
 
 
  % Change
versus
3Q-08
  % Change
versus
YTD 2008
 
 
  2009   2008   2009   2008  

Consolidated new business analysis:

                                     
 

Present value of new business premiums ("PVP")(a)

                                     
 

Public finance—U.S. 

  $ 154.9   $ 107.2     44 % $ 500.2   $ 460.4     9 %
 

Public finance—non-U.S. 

        17.7     NM     1.8     31.3     (94 )%
 

Structured finance—U.S. 

    2.3     14.5     (84 )%   16.9     144.9     (88 )%
 

Structured finance—non-U.S. 

    0.9         NM     0.9     58.3     (98 )%
                               
 

Total PVP(a)

    158.1     139.4     13 %   519.8     694.9     (25 )%
   

Less: PVP(a) of credit derivatives

        1.1     NM     2.4     146.9     (98 )%
                               
 

PVP(a) of financial guaranty insurance

    158.1     138.3     14 %   517.4     548.0     (6 )%
   

Less: Financial guaranty installment premium PVP(a)

    4.2     37.8     (89 )%   28.3     85.9     (67 )%
                               
 

Total: Financial guaranty upfront GWP

    153.9     100.5     53 %   489.1     462.1     6 %
   

Plus: Upfront premium due to commutation

        (20.8 )   NM         (20.8 )   NM  
   

Plus: Financial guaranty installment GWP

    4.4     32.9     (87 )%   4.4     88.9     (95 )%
   

Plus: Financial guaranty installment PVP(a) adjustment(1)

    (34.3 )       NM     7.4         NM  
                               
 

Total financial guaranty GWP

    124.0     112.6     10 %   500.9     530.2     (6 )%
 

Plus: Mortgage guaranty segment GWP

    0.2     0.2     0 %   0.2     0.7     (71 )%
 

Plus: Other segment GWP

            NM     (1.1 )   3.5     NM  
                               
 

Total GWP

  $ 124.2   $ 112.8     10 % $ 500.0   $ 534.4     (6 )%
                               

Consolidated financial guaranty gross par written:

                                     
 

Public finance—U.S. 

  $ 8,497   $ 7,728     10 % $ 40,384   $ 32,108     26 %
 

Public finance—non-U.S. 

        1,146     (100 )%   556         NM  
 

Structured finance—U.S. 

    600     1,926     (69 )%   994     10,716     (91 )%
 

Structured finance—non-U.S. 

        (24 )   (100 )%       6,036     (100 )%
                               
   

Total

  $ 9,097   $ 10,776     (16 )% $ 41,934   $ 48,859     (14 )%
                               

Financial guaranty direct GWP analysis:

                                     
 

Financial guaranty direct PVP(a)

                                     
 

Public finance—U.S. 

  $ 154.9   $ 67.7     129 % $ 409.5   $ 374.3     9 %
 

Public finance—non-U.S. 

                1.7     9.0     (81 )%
 

Structured finance—U.S. 

    2.3     14.5     (84 )%   16.9     137.7     (88 )%
 

Structured finance—non-U.S. 

    0.9         NM     0.9     57.8     (98 )%
                               
 

Financial guaranty direct PVP(a):

    158.1     82.2     92 %   429.0     578.8     (26 )%
   

Less: PVP(a) of credit derivatives GWP

                2.4     143.8     (98 )%
                               
 

PVP(a) of financial guaranty direct GWP

    158.1     82.2     92 %   426.6     435.0     (2 )%
   

Less: Present value of insurance installment premiums(a)

    4.2     30.3     (86 )%   23.2     70.0     (67 )%
                               
 

Upfront financial guaranty GWP

    153.9     51.9     197 %   403.4     365.0     11 %
   

Plus: Financial guaranty installment GWP

    4.4     19.5     (77 )%   4.4     50.6     (91 )%
   

Plus: Financial guaranty installment PVP(a) adjustment(1)

    (26.7 )       NM     7.6         NM  
                               
 

Financial guaranty direct GWP

  $ 131.6   $ 71.4     84 % $ 415.4   $ 415.6     (0 )%
                               

Financial guaranty direct gross par written:

                                     
 

Public finance—U.S. 

  $ 8,497   $ 5,574     52 % $ 26,953   $ 25,958     4 %
 

Public finance—non-U.S. 

                90         NM  
 

Structured finance—U.S. 

    600     1,920     (69 )%   973     10,059     (90 )%
 

Structured finance—non-U.S. 

                    4,413     (100 )%
                               
   

Total

  $ 9,097   $ 7,494     21 % $ 28,016   $ 40,430     (31 )%
                               

(1)
2009 amounts represent the difference in management estimates for the discount rate applied to future installments as well as the estimated term for future installments compared to the discount rate used for ASC 944-20.

Note: Please refer to endnotes for explanation of non-GAAP financial measures [PVP (a)].

NM = Not meaningful

6



ASSURED GUARANTY LTD.

SEGMENT CONSOLIDATION

(dollars in millions)

 
  Quarter Ended September 30, 2009  
 
  Financial
Guaranty
Direct
  Financial
Guaranty
Reinsurance(1)(2)
  Mortgage
Guaranty
  Total
Financial
Guaranty
  Other   Total  

Total PVP(a)

  $ 158.1   $   $   $ 158.1         $ 158.1  

Income statement:

                                     

Net earned premiums(1)

    314.7     14.6     0.7     330.0         330.0  

Realized gains on credit derivatives:

                                     
 

Net credit derivative premiums earned

    57.0     0.2         57.2         57.2  
 

Ceding commissions income (expense), net

        0.1         0.1         0.1  
                           

Total realized gains on credit derivatives(3)

    57.0     0.3         57.3         57.3  

Other income

    34.6     21.5         56.1         56.1  
                           

Total revenues

    406.3     36.4     0.7     443.4         443.4  

                                   

Loss and loss adjustment expenses(1)

    97.2     35.9     0.2     133.3         133.3  

Incurred losses (gains) on credit derivatives(4)

    142.4     (0.2 )       142.2         142.2  
                           
 

Total incurred losses

    239.6     35.7     0.2     275.5         275.5  

Profit commission expense

            0.2     0.2         0.2  

Amortization of deferred acquisition costs(1)

    3.0     (1.8 )   0.1     1.3         1.3  

Operating expenses

    59.1     6.3     0.8     66.2         66.2  
                           
 

Total underwriting expenses

  $ 301.7   $ 40.2   $ 1.3   $ 343.2   $   $ 343.2  

Underwriting (loss) gain

  $ 104.6   $ (3.8 ) $ (0.6 ) $ 100.2   $   $ 100.2  

Expense ratio(f)

    16.7 %   29.7 %   160.3 %   17.5 %         17.5 %

7



ASSURED GUARANTY LTD.

SEGMENT CONSOLIDATION (Continued)

(dollars in millions)


 
  Quarter Ended September 30, 2008  
 
  Financial
Guaranty
Direct
  Financial
Guaranty
Reinsurance(1)(2)
  Mortgage
Guaranty
  Total
Financial
Guaranty
  Other   Total  

Total PVP(a)

  $ 82.2   $ 57.2   $   $ 139.4         $ 139.4  

Income statement:

                                     

Net earned premiums

    26.9     57.4     1.2     85.5         85.5  

Realized gains on credit derivatives:

                                     
 

Net credit derivative premiums earned

    28.4     2.1         30.5         30.5  
 

Ceding commissions income (expense), net

    0.2     (0.7 )       (0.5 )       (0.5 )
                           

Total realized gains on credit derivatives(3)

    28.6     1.4         30.0         30.0  

Other income

                         
                           

Total revenues

    55.5     58.8     1.2     115.5         115.5  

Loss and loss adjustment expenses

    65.9     15.5     1.0     82.5         82.5  

Incurred losses (gains) on credit derivatives(4)

    10.1             10.1         10.1  
                           
 

Total incurred losses

    76.0     15.5     1.0     92.6         92.6  

Profit commission expense

        (1.5 )   0.1     (1.4 )       (1.4 )

Amortization of deferred acquisition costs

    4.0     15.1     0.1     19.3         19.3  

Operating expenses

    15.4     5.6     0.5     21.6         21.6  
                           
 

Total underwriting expenses

  $ 95.5   $ 34.8   $ 1.7   $ 132.0   $   $ 132.0  

Underwriting gain

  $ (40.0 ) $ 24.0   $ (0.5 ) $ (16.5 ) $   $ (16.5 )

Expense ratio(f)

    34.8 %   33.5 %   59.3 %   34.4 %         34.4 %

(1)
The Company adopted ASC 944-20 effective January 1, 2009.

(2)
Due to the timing of receiving reports prepared by Assured's ceding companies, PVP(a) for installment premiums, par written and par outstanding on treaty business in the Company's Financial Guaranty Reinsurance segment are reported on a one-quarter lag.

(3)
Includes premiums and ceding commissions.

(4)
Includes paid and payable losses and received and receivable recoveries.

Note: Please refer to endnotes for explanation of non-GAAP financial measures [PVP (a), and expense ratio (f)].

8



ASSURED GUARANTY LTD.

SEGMENT CONSOLIDATION (Continued)

(dollars in millions)

 
  Nine Months Ended September 30, 2009  
 
  Financial
Guaranty
Direct
  Financial
Guaranty
Reinsurance(1)(2)
  Mortgage
Guaranty
  Total
Financial
Guaranty
  Other   Total  

Total PVP(a)

  $ 429.0   $ 90.8   $   $ 519.8         $ 519.8  

Income statement:

                                     

Net earned premiums(1)

    446.6     108.2     2.3     557.1         557.1  

Realized gains on credit derivatives:

                                     
 

Net credit derivative premiums earned

    112.6     2.3         114.9         114.9  
 

Ceding commissions income (expense), net

    0.8     (0.9 )       (0.1 )       (0.1 )
                           

Total realized gains on credit derivatives(3)

    113.4     1.4         114.8         114.8  

Other income

    34.6     21.5           56.1         56.1  
                           

Total revenues

    594.6     131.1     2.3     728.0         728.0  

                                   

Loss and loss adjustment expenses(1)

    140.8     98.3     12.0     251.1         251.1  

Incurred losses (gains) on credit derivatives(4)

    178.9     (0.4 )       178.5         178.5  
                           
 

Total incurred losses

    319.7     97.9     12.0     429.6         429.6  

Profit commission expense

        1.9     0.6     2.5         2.5  

Amortization of deferred acquisition costs(1)

    12.8     28.1     0.4     41.3         41.3  

Operating expenses

    95.3     19.2     2.0     116.5         116.5  
                           
 

Total underwriting expenses

  $ 427.8   $ 147.2   $ 15.0   $ 589.9   $   $ 589.9  

Underwriting (loss) gain

  $ 166.8   $ (16.0 ) $ (12.7 ) $ 138.1   $   $ 138.1  

Expense ratio(f)

    19.2 %   45.4 %   131.3 %   23.9 %         23.9 %

9



ASSURED GUARANTY LTD.

SEGMENT CONSOLIDATION (Continued)

(dollars in millions)


 
  Nine Months Ended September 30, 2008  
 
  Financial
Guaranty
Direct
  Financial
Guaranty
Reinsurance(2)
  Mortgage
Guaranty
  Total
Financial
Guaranty
  Other   Total  

Total PVP(a)

  $ 578.8   $ 116.1   $   $ 694.9         $ 694.9  

Income statement:

                                     

Net earned premiums

    65.0     114.8     4.4     184.0         184.0  

Realized gains on credit derivatives:

                                     
 

Net credit derivative premiums earned

    86.4     3.4         89.8         89.8  
 

Ceding commissions income (expense), net

    0.3     (1.1 )       (0.8 )       (0.8 )
                           

Total realized gains on credit derivatives(3)

    86.7     2.3         89.0         89.0  

Other income

                         
                           

Total revenues

    151.7     117.1     4.4     273.1         273.1  

Loss and loss adjustment expenses

    130.0     46.0     1.1     177.1     (1.5 )   175.8  

Incurred losses (gains) on credit derivatives(4)

    18.9             18.9     (0.4 )   18.5  
                           
 

Total incurred losses

    148.9     46.0     1.1     196.0     (1.9 )   194.3  

Profit commission expense

        0.5     0.3     0.8         0.8  

Amortization of deferred acquisition costs

    10.1     32.5     0.3     43.0         43.0  

Operating expenses

    51.9     16.0     1.9     69.9         69.9  
                           
 

Total underwriting expenses

  $ 210.9   $ 95.1   $ 3.6   $ 309.6   $ (1.9 ) $ 307.9  

Underwriting gain

  $ (59.2 ) $ 22.0   $ 0.8   $ (36.4 ) $ 1.9   $ (34.6 )

Expense ratio(f)

    40.7 %   42.4 %   57.5 %   41.8 %         41.8 %

(1)
The Company adopted ASC 944-20 effective January 1, 2009.

(2)
Due to the timing of receiving reports prepared by Assured's ceding companies, PVP(a) for installment premiums, par written and par outstanding on treaty business in the Company's Financial Guaranty Reinsurance segment are reported on a one-quarter lag.

(3)
Includes premiums and ceding commissions.

(4)
Includes paid and payable losses and received and receivable recoveries.

Note: Please refer to endnotes for explanation of non-GAAP financial measures [PVP (a), and expense ratio (f)].

10



ASSURED GUARANTY LTD.

FINANCIAL GUARANTY DIRECT SEGMENT

(dollars in millions)

 
  3Q-08   3Q-09   Nine Months
2008
  Nine Months
2009
 

Income statement:

                         

Net earned premiums:

                         
 

Scheduled net earned premiums(1)

                         
   

Public finance—U.S. 

  $ 9.9   $ 69.7   $ 18.7   $ 95.1  
   

Public finance—non-U.S. 

    1.3     17.9     3.9     20.1  
   

Structured finance—U.S. 

    12.3     208.4     37.2     235.9  
   

Structured finance—non-U.S. 

    3.4     7.6     5.2     10.8  
                   
 

Total scheduled net earned premiums

    26.9     303.6     65.0     361.9  
 

Net earned premiums from refundings and accelerations(1)

        11.1         84.7  
                   

Total net earned premiums

    26.9     314.7     65.0     446.6  

Realized gains on credit derivatives:

                         
 

Net credit derivative premiums earned

    28.4     57.0     86.4     112.6  
 

Ceding commissions income (expense), net

    0.2         0.3     0.8  
                   

Total realized gains on credit derivatives(2)

    28.6     57.0     86.7     113.4  

Other income

        34.6         34.6  
                   

Total revenues

    55.5     406.3     151.7     594.6  

Loss and loss adjustment expenses (recoveries)(1):

                         
 

Case

    99.9     97.2     132.1     140.8  
 

Portfolio

    (34.0 )       (2.1 )    
                   
   

Total loss and loss adjustment expenses (recoveries)—financial guaranty

    65.9     97.2     130.0     140.8  

Incurred losses (gains) on credit derivatives(3)

    10.1     142.4     18.9     178.9  
                   
 

Total incurred losses

    76.0     239.6     148.9     319.7  

Profit commission expense

                 

Amortization of deferred acquisition costs(1)

    4.0     3.0     10.1     12.8  

Operating expenses

    15.4     59.1     51.9     95.3  
                   
 

Total expenses

  $ 95.5   $ 301.7   $ 210.9   $ 427.8  

Underwriting gain (loss)

  $ (40.0 ) $ 104.6   $ (59.2 ) $ 166.8  

Expense ratio(f)

    34.8 %   16.7 %   40.7 %   19.2 %

(1)
The Company adopted ASC 944-20 effective January 1, 2009.

(2)
Includes premiums and ceding commissions.

(3)
Includes paid and payable losses and received and receivable recoveries.

Note: Please refer to endnotes for explanation of non-GAAP financial measures [PVP (a), and expense ratio (f)].

11



ASSURED GUARANTY LTD.

FINANCIAL GUARANTY DIRECT SEGMENT (Continued)

(dollars in millions)

 
  3Q-08   3Q-09   Nine Months
2008
  Nine Months
2009
 

PVP(a):

                         

Public finance—U.S. 

  $ 67.7   $ 154.9   $ 374.3   $ 409.5  

Public finance—non-U.S. 

            9.0     1.7  

Structured finance—U.S. 

    14.5     2.3     137.7     16.9  

Structured finance—non-U.S. 

        0.9     57.8     0.9  
                   

Total PVP(a)

    82.2     158.1     578.8     429.0  
 

Less: PVP(a) of credit derivatives GWP

            143.8     2.4  
                   

PVP of financial guaranty GWP

    82.2     158.1     435.0     426.6  
   

Less: Present value of insurance installment premiums(a)

    30.3     4.2     70.0     23.2  
                   
   

Upfront financial guaranty GWP

    51.9     153.9     365.0     403.4  
 

Plus: Financial guaranty installment GWP

    19.5     4.4     50.6     4.4  
 

Plus: Financial guaranty installment PVP(a) adjustment(2)

        (26.7 )       7.6  
                   

Financial guaranty direct GWP

  $ 71.4   $ 131.6   $ 415.6   $ 415.4  

Gross par written:

                         

Public finance—U.S. 

  $ 5,574   $ 8,497   $ 25,958   $ 26,953  

Public finance—non-U.S. 

                90  

Structured finance—U.S. 

    1,920     600     10,059     973  

Structured finance—non-U.S. 

            4,413      
                   
 

Total

  $ 7,494   $ 9,097   $ 40,430   $ 28,016  
                   

 

 
   
   
  As of September 30,  
 
   
   
  2008   2009  

Net par outstanding:

                         

Public finance—U.S. 

              $ 32,889   $ 371,748  

Public finance—non-U.S. 

                11,274     37,139  

Structured finance—U.S. 

                66,567     135,939  

Structured finance—non-U.S. 

                21,355     33,080  
                       
 

Total

              $ 132,084   $ 577,906  
                       

Unearned premium reserve, net of ceded reinsurance—financial guaranty

              $ 569.4   $ 7,036.4  

Unearned credit derivative revenues, net of ceded reinsurance

                14.2     50.1  

Net present value of installment premiums in force—credit derivatives(e)

                408.0     805.1  

Net present value of installment premiums in force—financial guaranty(e)(1)

                241.3      

(1)
The Company adopted ASC 944-20 effective January 1, 2009. Net present value of installment premiums in force for financial guaranty are included in "unearned premium reserve, net of ceded reinsurance—financial guaranty" line.

(2)
2009 amounts represent the difference in management estimates for the discount rate applied to future installments as well as the estimated term for future installments compared to the discount rate used for ASC 944-20.

Note: Please refer to endnotes for explanation of non-GAAP financial measures [PVP (a) and net present value of estimated future installment premiums in force (e)].

Note: AGM is included in the financial guaranty direct segment.

12



ASSURED GUARANTY LTD.

FINANCIAL GUARANTY REINSURANCE SEGMENT

(dollars in millions)

 
  3Q-08   3Q-09   Nine Months
2008
  Nine Months
2009
 

Income statement:

                         

Net earned premiums(1):

                         
 

Scheduled net earned premiums

  $ 25.7   $ 8.3   $ 78.6   $ 65.1  
 

Net earned premiums from refundings and accelerations

    31.7     6.3     36.2     43.1  
                   

Total net earned premiums

    57.4     14.6     114.8     108.2  

Realized gains on credit derivatives:

                         
 

Net credit derivative premiums earned

    2.1     0.2     3.4     2.3  
 

Ceding commissions income (expense), net

    (0.7 )   0.1     (1.1 )   (0.9 )
                   

Total realized gains on credit derivatives(2)

    1.4     0.3     2.3     1.4  

Other income

        21.5         21.5  
                   

Total revenues

    58.8     36.4     117.1     131.1  

Loss and loss adjustment expenses (recoveries)(1):

                         
 

Case

    18.0     35.9     47.0     98.3  
 

Portfolio

    (2.5 )       (1.0 )    
                   
   

Total loss and loss adjustment expenses (recoveries)—financial guaranty

    15.5     35.9     46.0     98.3  

Incurred losses (gains) on credit derivatives(3)

        (0.2 )       (0.4 )
                   
 

Total incurred losses

    15.5     35.7     46.0     97.9  

Profit commission expense

    (1.5 )       0.5     1.9  

Amortization of deferred acquisition costs(1)

    15.1     (1.8 )   32.5     28.1  

Operating expenses

    5.6     6.3     16.0     19.2  
                   
 

Total expenses

  $ 34.8   $ 40.2   $ 95.1   $ 147.2  

Underwriting gain (loss)

  $ 24.0   $ (3.8 ) $ 22.0   $ (16.0 )

Expense ratio(f)

    33.5 %   29.7 %   42.4 %   45.4 %

(1)
The Company adopted ASC 944-20 effective January 1, 2009.

(2)
Includes premiums and ceding commissions.

(3)
Includes paid and payable losses and received and receivable recoveries.

Note: Please refer to endnotes for explanation of non-GAAP financial measures [PVP (a), and expense ratio (f)].

13



ASSURED GUARANTY LTD.

FINANCIAL GUARANTY REINSURANCE SEGMENT (Continued)

(dollars in millions)

 
  3Q-08   3Q-09   Nine Months
2008
  Nine Months
2009
 

PVP(a):

                         

Public finance—U.S. 

  $ 39.5   $   $ 86.1   $ 90.7  

Public finance—non-U.S. 

    17.7         22.3     0.1  

Structured finance—U.S. 

            7.2      

Structured finance—non-U.S. 

            0.5      
                   

Total PVP(a)

    57.2         116.1     90.8  
   

Less: PVP(a) of credit derivatives GWP

    1.1         3.0      
                   

PVP(a) of financial guaranty GWP

    56.1         113.0     90.8  
 

Less: Present value of financial guaranty installment premiums(a)

    7.5         15.9     5.1  
                   
 

Upfront financial guaranty GWP

    48.6         97.1     85.7  
 

Plus: Upfront premium due to commutation(2)

    (20.8 )       (20.8 )    
 

Plus: Financial guaranty installment GWP

    13.4         38.3      
 

Plus: Financial guaranty installment PVP(a) adjustment(3)

        (7.5 )       (0.1 )
                   

Financial guaranty reinsurance GWP

  $ 41.2   $ (7.5 ) $ 114.6   $ 85.6  

Gross par written:

                         

Public finance—U.S. 

  $ 2,154   $   $ 6,150   $ 13,431  

Public finance—non-U.S. 

    1,146             466  

Structured finance—U.S. 

    6         656     21  

Structured finance—non-U.S. 

    (24 )       1,623      
                   
 

Total

  $ 3,282   $   $ 8,429   $ 13,918  
                   

 

 
   
   
  As of September 30,  
Net par outstanding:
   
   
  2008   2009  

Public finance—U.S. 

              $ 72,695   $ 53,137  

Public finance—non-U.S. 

                    6,088  

Structured finance—U.S. 

                9,216     6,244  

Structured finance—non-U.S. 

                13,347     3,255  
                       
 

Total

              $ 95,258   $ 68,724  
                       

Unearned premium reserve, net of ceded reinsurance—financial guaranty

              $ 625.9   $ 670.4  

Unearned credit derivative revenues, net of ceded reinsurance

                4.4     3.4  

Net present value of installment premiums in force—credit derivatives(e)

                11.2     12.3  

Net present value of installment premiums in force—financial guaranty(e)(4)

                253.4      

(1)
Due to the timing of receiving reports prepared by Assured's ceding companies, PVP for installment premiums, par written and par outstanding on treaty business in the Company's financial guaranty reinsurance segment are reported on a one-quarter lag.

(2)
Relates to commutation of XLFA reinsurance cession of approximately $2.1 billion of net par outstanding.

(3)
2009 amounts represent the difference in management estimates for the discount rate applied to future installments as well as the estimated term for future installments compared to the discount rate used for ASC 944-20.

(4)
The Company adopted ASC 944-20 effective January 1, 2009. Net present value of installment premiums in force for financial guaranty are included in "unearned premium reserve, net of ceded reinsurance—financial guaranty" line.

Note: Please refer to endnotes for explanation of non-GAAP financial measures [PVP (a) and net present value of estimated future installment premiums in force (e)].

Note: AGM is included in the financial guaranty direct segment.

14



ASSURED GUARANTY LTD.

INVESTMENT PORTFOLIO

As of September 30, 2009

(dollars in millions)

 
  Amortized
Cost
  Pre-Tax
Book
Yield
  After-Tax
Book
Yield
  Fair
Value
  Annualized
Investment
Income(4)
 

Investment Portfolio, available-for-sale:

                               

Fixed maturity securities:

                               
 

U.S. Treasury securities and obligations of U.S. government agencies

  $ 510.9     2.99 %   2.26 % $ 530.6   $ 15.3  
 

Agency obligations

    439.2     3.81 %   3.36 %   458.3     16.7  
 

Foreign government securities

    350.9     2.98 %   1.96 %   351.3     10.5  
 

Obligations of states and political subdivisions

    2,547.4     3.64 %   3.43 %   2,666.9     92.7  
 

Insured obligations of state and political subdivisions(1)

    2,436.8     4.57 %   4.33 %   2,572.6     111.4  
 

Corporate securities

    356.5     4.69 %   4.13 %   370.4     16.7  
 

Mortgage-backed securities(2):

                               
   

Pass-throughs

    1,416.2     5.47 %   4.74 %   1,419.3     77.5  
   

PACs

    23.5     4.57 %   4.27 %   23.9     1.1  
 

Asset-backed securities(3)

    69.6     5.02 %   5.01 %   54.8     3.5  
                       
     

Total fixed maturity securities

    8,151.0     4.24 %   3.83 %   8,448.1     345.4  

Short-term investments

    1,492.5     0.21 %   0.16 %   1,492.9     3.1  
                       
     

Total investment portfolio

  $ 9,643.5     3.61 %   3.27 % $ 9,941.0   $ 348.5  
                       

 

 
  Fair
Value
  %    
   
   
 

Ratings(5):

                               

Treasury and U.S. government obligations

  $ 530.6     6.3 %                  

Agency obligations

    458.3     5.4 %                  

AAA/Aaa

    2,858.3     33.9 %                  

AA/Aa

    2,890.2     34.2 %                  

A/A

    1,412.7     16.7 %                  

BBB

    185.4     2.2 %                  

Below investment grade ("BIG")(6)

    112.6     1.3 %                  
                             
 

Total fixed maturity securities available for sale

  $ 8,448.1     100.0 %                  
                             

Duration of investment portfolio (in years):

          3.8                    
                               

(1)
Reflects obligations of state and local political subdivisions that have been insured by other financial guarantors. The underlying ratings of these bonds average A+. Includes $545.6 million insured by AGC & AGM.

(2)
$2.3 million is U.S. subprime RMBS, which has an average rating of AAA.

(3)
Contains no CDOs of ABS.

(4)
Represents annualized investment income based on amortized cost and pre-tax book yields.

(5)
Ratings are represented by the lower of the Moody's Investors Service and Standard & Poor's classifications.

(6)
Includes $31.4 million which the Company purchased for risk mitigation purposes.

15



ASSURED GUARANTY LTD.

ESTIMATED NET EXPOSURE AMORTIZATION(1)

(dollars in millions)

 
  Estimated Net
Debt Service
Amortization
  Estimated
Ending Net
Debt Service
Outstanding
 

Total Financial Guaranty:

             

2009 (as of September 30)

        $ 967,440  

2009 (October-December)

  $ 17,224     950,216  

2010

    69,907     880,309  

2011

    60,847     819,462  

2012

    67,740     751,722  

2013

    59,903     691,819  

2009-2013

   
275,621
   
691,819
 

2014-2018

    243,890     447,929  

2019-2023

    162,984     284,945  

2024-2028

    117,950     166,995  

After 2028

    166,995      
             
 

Total

  $ 967,440        
             

(1)
Represents amortization of existing guaranteed portfolio (principal and interest), assuming no advance refundings, as of September 30, 2009. Expected maturities will differ from contractual maturities because borrowers may have the right to call or prepay guaranteed obligations.

16



ASSURED GUARANTY LTD.

ESTIMATED NET UNEARNED PREMIUM AMORTIZATION AND ESTIMATED NET FUTURE INSTALLMENT PREMIUMS

(dollars in millions)

 
  Non-Credit Derivative Financial Guaranty Contracts    
   
 
 
  Run-off of
Net UPR(1)
  Expected
Losses
  Run-off of
Net UPR
in Excess of
Expected Losses
  Accretion of
Discount
  Credit Derivative
Revenues and
Other Installment
Earned Premiums(2)
  Total  

Total Financial Guaranty:

                                     

2009 (4th Qtr)

  $ 304.0   $ 16.6   $ 287.4   $ 9.9   $ 60.7   $ 358.0  

2010

    1,054.0     158.4     895.6     37.6     196.8     1,130.0  

2011

    809.1     116.8     692.3     35.3     175.4     903.0  

2012

    670.8     120.3     550.5     33.2     141.3     725.0  

2013

    570.7     119.2     451.5     31.0     106.9     589.4  

2009-2013

   
3,408.6
   
531.3
   
2,877.3
   
147.0
   
681.1
   
3,705.4
 

2014-2018

    1,894.1     354.5     1,539.6     126.6     220.9     1,887.1  

2019-2023

    1,019.1     86.1     933.0     86.9     87.0     1,106.9  

2024-2028

    642.0     40.8     601.2     55.4     62.5     719.1  

After 2028

    742.8     53.0     689.8     47.8     116.3     853.9  
                           
 

Total

  $ 7,706.6   $ 1,065.7   $ 6,640.9   $ 463.7   $ 1,167.8   $ 8,272.4  
                           

(1)
Net unearned premium reserve ("UPR") amounts are U.S. GAAP based UPR and net of ceded unearned premiums.

(2)
Includes earnings on future installments of credit derivatives.

17



ASSURED GUARANTY LTD.

FINANCIAL GUARANTY PROFILE

As of September 30, 2009

(dollars in millions)

Historical Net Par Outstanding and Average Rating by Asset Type

 
  Financial Guaranty
Direct
  Financial Guaranty
Reinsurance
  Consolidated
 
  Net Par Outstanding   Avg. Rating(1)
Sector:
  Net Par Outstanding   Net Par Outstanding

Public Finance

                     

United States:

                     
 

General obligation

  $ 161,128   $ 17,306   $ 178,434   A+
 

Tax backed

    73,307     10,283     83,590   A+
 

Municipal utilities

    63,032     6,931     69,963   A
 

Transportation

    29,072     6,870     35,942   A
 

Healthcare

    19,587     2,512     22,099   A
 

Higher education

    11,967     3,023     14,990   A+
 

Housing

    7,258     1,432     8,690   AA-
 

Infrastructure finance

    2,454     828     3,282   BBB
 

Investor-owned utilities

    124     1,725     1,849   BBB+
 

Other public finance

    3,819     2,227     6,046   A
                 
   

Total public finance—U.S. 

  $ 371,748   $ 53,137   $ 424,885   A+

Non-U.S.:

                     
 

Infrastructure finance

  $ 13,117   $ 2,941   $ 16,058   BBB
 

Regulated utilities

    11,331     2,584     13,915   BBB+
 

Pooled infrastructure

    4,389         4,389   AAA
 

Other public finance

    8,302     563     8,865   AA-
                 
   

Total public finance—non-U.S. 

  $ 37,139   $ 6,088   $ 43,227   A-
                 

Total public finance

  $ 408,887   $ 59,225   $ 468,112   A+
                 

Structured Finance

                     

United States:

                     
 

Pooled corporate obligations

  $ 74,641   $ 925   $ 75,566   AAA
 

Residential mortgage-backed and home equity

    29,555     602     30,157   BB+
 

Financial products

    10,914         10,914   AA-
 

Consumer receivables

    7,831     1,654     9,485   A
 

Commercial mortgage-backed securities

    7,076     379     7,455   AAA
 

Commercial receivables

    1,211     1,730     2,941   BBB+
 

Structured credit

    2,393     343     2,736   A-
 

Insurance securitizations

    1,314     337     1,651   A+
 

Other structured finance

    1,004     274     1,278   A-
                 
   

Total structured finance—U.S. 

  $ 135,939   $ 6,244   $ 142,183   AA-

Non-U.S.:

                     
 

Pooled corporate obligations

  $ 23,343   $ 1,037   $ 24,380   AAA
 

Residential mortgage-backed and home equity

    5,253     65     5,318   AAA
 

Structured credit

    1,475     757     2,232   BBB
 

Commercial receivables

    1,027     871     1,898   A-
 

Insurance securitizations

    964     31     995   CCC
 

Commercial mortgage-backed securities

    452     320     772   AA
 

Other structured finance

    566     174     740   AAA
                 
   

Total structured finance—non-U.S. 

  $ 33,080   $ 3,255   $ 36,335   AA
                 

Total structured finance

  $ 169,019   $ 9,499   $ 178,518   AA-
                 

Total exposures

  $ 577,906   $ 68,724   $ 646,630   A+
                 

Mortgage guaranty risk in force

              $ 395   NA

(1)
Assured's internal rating. Assured's scale is comparable to that of the nationally recognized rating agencies. The super senior category, which is not generally used by rating agencies, is used by the Company in instances where Assured's AAA-rated exposure has additional credit enhancement due to either (1) the existence of another security rated AAA that is subordinated to Assured's exposure or (2) Assured's exposure benefits from a different form of credit enhancement that would pay any claims first in the event that any of the exposures incurs a loss, and such credit enhancement, in management's opinion, causes Assured's attachment point to be materially above the AAA attachment point.

Please refer to Glossary for description of selected types of U.S. public finance, non-U.S. public finance, U.S. structured finance and non-U.S. structured finance obligations hat the Company insures and reinsures.

NA = Not Applicable

18



ASSURED GUARANTY LTD.

FINANCIAL GUARANTY PROFILE (Continued)

As of September 30, 2009

(dollars in millions)

Gross Par Written by Asset Type

 
  Total Financial
Guaranty
  Avg. Rating(1)
 
  3Q-09

Sector:

         

Public Finance

         

United States:

         
 

Tax backed

  $ 2,740   A
 

General obligation

    2,608   A
 

Municipal utilities

    1,289   A
 

Transportation

    1,196   A-
 

Higher education

    288   A
 

Healthcare

    294   A
 

Infrastructure finance

    56   A-
 

Housing

    26   AA
 

Other public finance

     
         
   

Total public finance—U.S. 

  $ 8,497   A

Non-U.S.:

         
 

Infrastructure finance

  $  
 

Regulated utilities

     
 

Other public finance

     
         
   

Total public finance—non-U.S. 

  $  
         

Total public finance

  $ 8,497   A
         

Structured Finance

         

United States:

         
 

Consumer receivables

  $ 600   AAA
 

Commercial receivables

     
         
   

Total structured finance—U.S. 

  $ 600   AAA

Non-U.S.:

         
   

Total structured finance—non-U.S. 

  $  
         

Total structured finance

  $ 600   AAA
         

Total gross par written

  $ 9,097   A
         

(1)
Assured's internal rating. Assured's scale is comparable to that of the nationally recognized rating agencies. The super senior category, which is not generally used by rating agencies, is used by the Company in instances where Assured's AAA-rated exposure has additional credit enhancement due to either (1) the existence of another security rated AAA that is subordinated to Assured's exposure or (2) Assured's exposure benefits from a different form of credit enhancement that would pay any claims first in the event that any of the exposures incurs a loss, and such credit enhancement, in management's opinion, causes Assured's attachment point to be materially above the AAA attachment point.

        Please refer to Glossary for description of selected types of U.S. public finance, non-U.S. public finance, U.S. structured finance and non-U.S. structured finance obligations that the Company insures and reinsures.

19



ASSURED GUARANTY LTD.

FINANCIAL GUARANTY PROFILE (Continued)

As of September 30, 2009

(dollars in millions)

Distribution by Ratings of Financial Guaranty Portfolio

 
  As of September 30, 2009  
 
  Financial Guaranty
Direct
  Financial Guaranty
Reinsurance
  Consolidated  
Ratings(1):
  Net Par
Outstanding
  %   Net Par
Outstanding
  %   Net Par
Outstanding
  %  

Super senior

  $ 45,795     7.9 % $     0.0 % $ 45,795     7.1 %

AAA

    60,557     10.5 %   2,315     3.4 %   62,872     9.7 %

AA

    178,235     30.8 %   20,525     29.9 %   198,760     30.7 %

A

    201,298     34.8 %   30,202     43.9 %   231,500     35.8 %

BBB

    70,158     12.1 %   13,517     19.7 %   83,675     12.9 %

Below investment grade

    21,863     3.9 %   2,165     3.1 %   24,028     3.8 %
                           
 

Total exposures

  $ 577,906     100.0 % $ 68,724     100.0 % $ 646,630     100.0 %
                           

 

 
  As of September 30, 2009  
 
  Public Finance—
U.S.
  Public Finance—
Non-U.S.
  Structured Finance—
U.S.
  Structured Finance—
Non-U.S.
  Consolidated  
Ratings(1):
  Net Par
Outstanding
  %   Net Par
Outstanding
  %   Net Par
Outstanding
  %   Net Par
Outstanding
  %   Net Par
Outstanding
  %  

Super senior

  $ 25     0.0 % $ 2,323     5.4 % $ 29,963     21.1 % $ 13,484     37.1 % $ 45,795     7.1 %

AAA

    6,882     1.6 %   3,545     8.2 %   40,979     28.8 %   11,465     31.6 %   62,871     9.7 %

AA

    167,617     39.4 %   2,753     6.4 %   26,017     18.3 %   2,373     6.5 %   198,760     30.7 %

A

    208,257     49.0 %   11,978     27.7 %   8,602     6.0 %   2,664     7.3 %   231,501     35.8 %

BBB

    38,952     9.2 %   22,244     51.5 %   17,153     12.1 %   5,326     14.7 %   83,675     12.9 %

Below investment grade

    3,152     0.7 %   384     0.9 %   19,469     13.7 %   1,023     2.8 %   24,028     3.8 %
                                           
 

Total exposures

  $ 424,885     100.0 % $ 43,227     100.0 % $ 142,183     100.0 % $ 36,335     100.0 % $ 646,630     100.0 %
                                           

(1)
Assured's internal rating. Assured's scale is comparable to that of the nationally recognized rating agencies. The super senior category, which is not generally used by rating agencies, is used by the Company in instances where Assured's AAA-rated exposure has additional credit enhancement due to either (1) the existence of another security rated AAA that is subordinated to Assured's exposure or (2) Assured's exposure benefits from a different form of credit enhancement that would pay any claims first in the event that any of the exposures incurs a loss and such credit enhancement, in management's opinion, causes Assured's attachment point to be materially above the AAA attachment point.

20



ASSURED GUARANTY LTD.

FINANCIAL GUARANTY PROFILE (Continued)

As of September 30, 2009

(dollars in millions)

Geographic Distribution of Financial Guaranty Portfolio as of September 30, 2009

 
  Net Par
Outstanding
  % of Total  

U.S.:

             

California

  $ 59,822     9.3 %

New York

    35,457     5.5 %

Texas

    30,778     4.8 %

Pennsylvania

    28,952     4.5 %

Florida

    25,468     3.9 %

Illinois

    25,320     3.9 %

New Jersey

    18,662     2.9 %

Michigan

    17,133     2.6 %

Washington

    13,422     2.1 %

Massachusetts

    13,347     2.1 %

Other states

    156,524     24.2 %

Structured finance (multiple states)

    142,183     21.9 %
           
 

Total U.S

    567,068     87.7 %
           

Non-U.S.:

             

United Kingdom

    31,553     4.9 %

Australia

    8,795     1.4 %

Canada

    5,052     0.8 %

France

    2,595     0.4 %

Italy

    2,582     0.4 %

Other

    28,985     4.4 %
           
 

Total non-U.S

    79,562     12.3 %
           

Total exposures

 
$

646,630
   
100.0

%
           

21



ASSURED GUARANTY LTD.

POOLED CORPORATE OBLIGATIONS PROFILE

(dollars in millions)

Distribution of Financial Guaranty Direct Pooled Corporate Obligations by Ratings as of September 30, 2009

Ratings(1):
  Net Par
Outstanding
  % of Total   Avg. Initial
Credit
Enhancement(2)
  Avg. Current
Enhancement(2)
 

Super Senior

  $ 33,413     34.1 %   29.0 %   26.4 %

AAA

    42,590     43.4 %   29.3 %   26.8 %

AA

    11,971     12.2 %   34.5 %   29.5 %

A

    2,410     2.5 %   33.0 %   33.5 %

BBB

    5,650     5.8 %   38.1 %   29.8 %

Below investment grade

    1,950     2.0 %   44.1 %   31.2 %
                   
 

Total exposures

  $ 97,984     100.0 %   30.7 %   27.4 %
                   

Distribution of Financial Guaranty Direct Pooled Corporate Obligations by Year Insured as of September 30, 2009

Year insured:
  Net Par
Outstanding
  % of Total   Avg. Initial
Credit
Enhancement(2)
  Avg. Current
Enhancement(2)
 

2004 and prior

  $ 15,412     15.7 %   23.7 %   21.7 %

2005

    20,667     21.1 %   29.0 %   25.7 %

2006

    20,756     21.2 %   33.0 %   28.1 %

2007

    38,570     39.4 %   33.0 %   29.6 %

2008

    2,579     2.6 %   35.5 %   37.3 %

2009

                 
                   

  $ 97,984     100.0 %   30.7 %   27.4 %
                   

22



ASSURED GUARANTY LTD.

POOLED CORPORATE OBLIGATIONS PROFILE (Continued)

(dollars in millions)

Distribution of Financial Guaranty Direct Pooled Corporate Obligations by Asset Class as of September 30, 2009

Asset class:
  Net Par
Outstanding
  % of Total   Avg. Initial
Credit
Enhancement(2)
  Avg. Current
Enhancement(2)
  Avg.
Rating(1)

Synthetic high yield pooled corporate

  $ 11,313     11.5 %   36.7 %   31.9 % AAA

Synthetic investment grade pooled corporate

    14,796     15.1 %   19.2 %   17.8 % Super Senior

CLOs/CBOs

    57,793     59.0 %   30.3 %   26.3 % AAA

Market Value CDOs of corporate

    5,860     6.0 %   32.2 %   40.0 % AAA

Trust Preferred—banks and insurance

    3,810     3.9 %   47.7 %   38.2 % BBB+

Trust Preferred—US Mortgage and REITs(3)

    2,419     2.5 %   50.1 %   42.5 % BB+

Trust Preferred—European Mortgage and REITs

    1,069     1.1 %   36.9 %   31.3 % BBB-

CDO of CDOs (corporate)(4)

    48     0.0 %   24.4 %   16.7 % A-

Other Pooled Corporate

    876     0.9 %   N/A     N/A   A-
                     

  $ 97,984     100.0 %   30.7 %   27.4 % AAA
                     

(1)
Assured's internal rating. Assured's scale is comparable to that of the nationally recognized rating agencies. The super senior category, which is not generally used by rating agencies, is used by the Company in instances where Assured's AAA-rated exposure has additional credit enhancement due to either (1) the existence of another security rated AAA that is subordinated to Assured's exposure or (2) Assured's exposure benefits from a different form of credit enhancement that would pay any claims first in the event that any of the exposures incurs a loss and such credit enhancement, in management's opinion, causes Assured's attachment point to be materially above the AAA attachment point.

(2)
"Average Credit Enhancement" is intended to provide a measure of the amount of equity and/or subordinated tranches that are junior in the capital structure to Assured's exposure, expressed as a percentage of the total transaction size, and reflects any reduction of that credit support resulting from defaults or other factors. For transactions where excess spread may be available to absorb certain losses, the amounts shown above do not include any benefit from excess spread. The calculation methodologies differ for the various asset classes to reflect differences in transaction structures in order to provide a measure that management believes is comparable across asset classes. Data is obtained from third-party sources such as trustee reports and may be subject to misstatement or correction.

(3)
REITs are real estate investment trusts.

(4)
CDOs are collateralized debt obligations.

23



ASSURED GUARANTY LTD.

CONSOLIDATED U.S. RESIDENTIAL MORTGAGE-BACKED SECURITIES ("RMBS") PROFILE

(dollars in millions)

Distribution of U.S. RMBS by Rating(1) and by Segment as of September 30, 2009

Ratings(1):
  Direct
Net Par
Outstanding
  %   Reinsurance
Net Par
Outstanding
  %   Total
Net Par
Outstanding
  %  

Super senior

  $ 545     1.8 % $       $ 545     1.8 %

AAA

    3,220     10.8 %   25     5.5 %   3,244     10.8 %

AA

    2,336     7.9 %   46     10.4 %   2,383     7.9 %

A

    2,190     7.4 %   80     18.1 %   2,271     7.5 %

BBB

    4,856     16.3 %   86     19.3 %   4,942     16.4 %

Below investment grade

    16,566     55.8 %   207     46.6 %   16,773     55.6 %
                           

  $ 29,714     100.0 % $ 444     100.0 % $ 30,157     100.0 %
                           

Distribution of U.S. RMBS by Rating(1), December 31, 2006 to September 30, 2009

Ratings(1):
  12/31/06   12/31/07   12/31/08   09/30/09  

Super senior

    41.4 %   35.4 %   34.7 %   1.8 %

AAA

    23.1 %   33.9 %   9.1 %   10.8 %

AA

    0.3 %   5.0 %   8.5 %   7.9 %

A

    9.2 %   6.4 %   13.4 %   7.5 %

BBB

    25.1 %   9.1 %   10.4 %   16.4 %

Below investment grade

    0.9 %   10.1 %   24.0 %   55.6 %
                   

    100.0 %   100.0 %   100.0 %   100.0 %
                   

Distribution of U.S. RMBS by Rating(1) and Type of Exposure as of September 30, 2009

Year insured:
  Prime
First Lien(2)
  Closed End
Seconds
  HELOC   Alt-A
First Lien
  Alt-A
Option
ARMs
  Subprime
First Lien
  NIMs(3)   Total Net Par
Outstanding
 

Super senior

  $   $   $   $   $   $ 545   $   $ 545  

AAA

    179     0     488     170     165     2,243         3,244  

AA

    37     46     546     261     21     1,471         2,383  

A

    53     2     7     1,062     56     1,092         2,271  

BBB

    109         442     1,706     260     2,394     31     4,942  

Below investment grade

    639     1,310     4,795     4,076     3,500     2,283     170     16,773  
                                   
 

Total exposures

  $ 1,016   $ 1,359   $ 6,279   $ 7,275   $ 4,000   $ 10,027   $ 201   $ 30,157  
                                   

24



ASSURED GUARANTY LTD.

CONSOLIDATED U.S. RESIDENTIAL MORTGAGE-BACKED SECURITIES ("RMBS") PROFILE (Continued)

(dollars in millions)

Distribution of U.S. RMBS by Year Insured and Type of Exposure as of September 30, 2009

Year insured:
  Prime
First Lien(2)
  Closed End
Seconds
  HELOC   Alt-A
First Lien
  Alt-A
Option
ARMs
  Subprime
First Lien
  NIMs   Total Net Par
Outstanding
 

2004 and prior

  $ 81   $ 3   $ 414   $ 151   $ 64   $ 1,781   $ 1   $ 2,496  

2005

    186         1,336     780     189     486     15     2,992  

2006

    166     472     2,080     568     1,051     4,406     87     8,831  

2007

    583     884     2,449     3,466     2,547     3,257     98     13,284  

2008

                2,310     149     96         2,555  

2009

                                 
                                   
 

Total exposures

  $ 1,016   $ 1,359   $ 6,279   $ 7,275   $ 4,000   $ 10,027   $ 201   $ 30,157  
                                   

(1)
Assured's internal rating. Assured's scale is comparable to that of the nationally recognized rating agencies. The super senior category, which is not generally used by rating agencies, is used by the Company in instances where Assured's AAA-rated exposure has additional credit enhancement due to either (1) the existence of another security rated AAA that is subordinated to Assured's exposure or (2) Assured's exposure benefits from a different form of credit enhancement that would pay any claims first in the event that any of the exposures incurs a loss and such credit enhancement, in management's opinion, causes Assured's attachment point to be materially above the AAA attachment point.

(2)
Includes primarily Prime First Lien plus an insignificant amount of other miscellaneous MBS transactions.

(3)
NIMs are net interest margin securities.

Distribution of U.S. RMBS by Rating(1) and Year Insured as of September 30, 2009

Year insured:
  Super
Senior
  AAA
Rated
  AA
Rated
  A
Rated
  BBB
Rated
  BIG
Rated
  Total  

2004 and prior

  $   $ 1,584   $ 116   $ 227   $ 148   $ 421   $ 2,496  

2005

        339     103     211     641     1,697     2,992  

2006

    545     994     1,100     917     1,377     3,898     8,831  

2007

        327     818     13     1,379     10,747     13,284  

2008

            246     902     1,396     10     2,555  

2009

                             
                               

  $ 545   $ 3,244   $ 2,383   $ 2,271   $ 4,942   $ 16,773   $ 30,157  
                               

% of total

    1.8 %   10.8 %   7.9 %   7.5 %   16.4 %   55.6 %   100.0 %

Distribution of U.S. Home Equity Line of Credit ("HELOC") RMBS by Rating(1) and Year Insured as of September 30, 2009

Year insured:
  Super
Senior
  AAA
Rated
  AA
Rated
  A
Rated
  BBB
Rated
  BIG
Rated
  Total  

2004 and prior

  $   $ 40   $ 6   $ 5   $ 47   $ 317   $ 414  

2005

        77         2     161     1,095     1,336  

2006

        56             234     1,790     2,080  

2007

        315     541             1,593     2,449  

2008

                             

2009

                             
                               

  $   $ 488   $ 546   $ 7   $ 442   $ 4,795   $ 6,279  
                               

% of total

    0.0 %   7.8 %   8.7 %   0.1 %   7.0 %   76.4 %   100.0 %

25



ASSURED GUARANTY LTD.

CONSOLIDATED U.S. RESIDENTIAL MORTGAGE-BACKED SECURITIES ("RMBS") PROFILE (Continued)

(dollars in millions)

Distribution of U.S. Closed End Seconds ("CES") RMBS by Rating(1) and Year Insured as of September 30, 2009

Year insured:
  Super
Senior
  AAA
Rated
  AA
Rated
  A
Rated
  BBB
Rated
  BIG
Rated
  Total  

2004 and prior

  $   $ 0   $   $ 2   $   $   $ 3  

2005

                               

2006

                        472     472  

2007

            46             838     884  

2008

                             

2009

                             
                               

  $   $ 0   $ 46   $ 2   $   $ 1,310   $ 1,359  
                               

% of total

    0.0 %   0.0 %   3.4 %   0.2 %   0.0 %   96.4 %   100.0 %

(1)
Assured's internal rating. Assured's scale is comparable to that of the nationally recognized rating agencies. The super senior category, which is not generally used by rating agencies, is used by the Company in instances where Assured's AAA-rated exposure has additional credit enhancement due to either (1) the existence of another security rated AAA that is subordinated to Assured's exposure or (2) Assured's exposure benefits from a different form of credit enhancement that would pay any claims first in the event that any of the exposures incurs a loss and such credit enhancement, in management's opinion, causes Assured's attachment point to be materially above the AAA attachment point.

Distribution of U.S. Alternative-A ("Alt-A") First Lien RMBS by Rating(1) and Year Insured as of September 30, 2009

Year insured:
  Super
Senior
  AAA
Rated
  AA
Rated
  A
Rated
  BBB
Rated
  BIG
Rated
  Total  

2004 and prior

  $   $ 90   $ 1   $ 26   $ 20   $ 15   $ 151  

2005

        80     15     134     161     391     780  

2006

                        568     568  

2007

                    364     3,102     3,466  

2008

            246     902     1,162         2,310  

2009

                             
                               

  $   $ 170   $ 261   $ 1,062   $ 1,706   $ 4,076   $ 7,275  
                               

% of total

    0.0 %   2.3 %   3.6 %   14.6 %   23.5 %   56.0 %   100.0 %

26



ASSURED GUARANTY LTD.

CONSOLIDATED U.S. RESIDENTIAL MORTGAGE-BACKED SECURITIES ("RMBS") PROFILE (Continued)

(dollars in millions)

Distribution of U.S. Alt-A Option Adjustable Rate Mortgage ("ARM") RMBS by Rating(1) and Year Insured as of September 30, 2009

Year insured:
  Super
Senior
  AAA
Rated
  AA
Rated
  A
Rated
  BBB
Rated
  BIG
Rated
  Total  

2004 and prior

  $   $   $ 12   $ 52   $   $   $ 64  

2005

        3         3     38     144     189  

2006

        160             3     888     1,051  

2007

        1     9         70     2,467     2,547  

2008

                    149         149  

2009

                             
                               

  $   $ 165   $ 21   $ 56   $ 260   $ 3,500   $ 4,000  
                               

% of total

    0.0 %   4.1 %   0.5 %   1.4 %   6.5 %   87.5 %   100.0 %

Distribution of U.S. Subprime First Lien RMBS by Rating(1) and Year Insured as of September 30, 2009

Year insured:
  Super
Senior
  AAA
Rated
  AA
Rated
  A
Rated
  BBB
Rated
  BIG
Rated
  Total  

2004 and prior

  $   $ 1,437   $ 60   $ 115   $ 82   $ 88   $ 1,781  

2005

        180     88     46     172         486  

2006

    545     616     1,100     917     1,140     89     4,406  

2007

        11     223     13     914     2,096     3,257  

2008

                    86     10     96  

2009

                             
                               

  $ 545   $ 2,243   $ 1,471   $ 1,092   $ 2,394   $ 2,283   $ 10,027  
                               

% of total

    5.4 %   22.4 %   14.7 %   10.9 %   23.9 %   22.8 %   100.0 %

(1)
Assured's internal rating. Assured's scale is comparable to that of the nationally recognized rating agencies. The super senior category, which is not generally used by rating agencies, is used by the Company in instances where Assured's AAA-rated exposure has additional credit enhancement due to either (1) the existence of another security rated AAA that is subordinated to Assured's exposure or (2) Assured's exposure benefits from a different form of credit enhancement that would pay any claims first in the event that any of the exposures incurs a loss and such credit enhancement, in management's opinion, causes Assured's attachment point to be materially above the AAA attachment point.

27



ASSURED GUARANTY LTD.

FINANCIAL GUARANTY DIRECT U.S. RMBS PROFILE

(dollars in millions)

Distribution of Financial Guaranty Direct U.S. RMBS by Rating(1) and Type of Exposure as of September 30, 2009

Ratings(1):
  Prime
First Lien(2)
  Closed End
Seconds
  HELOC   Alt-A
First Lien
  Alt-A
Option
ARMs
  Subprime
First Lien
  NIMs   Total Net Par
Outstanding
 

Super senior

  $   $   $   $   $   $ 545   $   $ 545  

AAA

    167         488     167     161     2,237         3,220  

AA

    3     46     541     261     21     1,466         2,336  

A

    27             1,036     51     1,077         2,190  

BBB

    108         385     1,704     257     2,372     31     4,856  

Below investment grade

    635     1,297     4,658     4,071     3,494     2,242     170     16,566  
                                   

Total exposures

  $ 939   $ 1,343   $ 6,072   $ 7,239   $ 3,983   $ 9,937   $ 201   $ 29,714  
                                   

Distribution of Financial Guaranty Direct U.S. RMBS by Year Insured as of September 30, 2009

Year insured:
  Prime
First Lien(2)
  Closed End
Seconds
  HELOC   Alt-A
First Lien
  Alt-A
Option
ARMs
  Subprime
First Lien
  NIMs   Total Net Par
Outstanding
 

2004 and prior

  $ 8   $   $ 354   $ 119   $ 63   $ 1,710   $ 1   $ 2,255  

2005

    186         1,284     779     181     486     15     2,930  

2006

    162     459     1,985     565     1,043     4,398     87     8,700  

2007

    583     884     2,449     3,466     2,547     3,257     98     13,284  

2008

                2,310     149     86         2,545  

2009

                                 
                                   

  $ 939   $ 1,343   $ 6,072   $ 7,239   $ 3,983   $ 9,937   $ 201   $ 29,714  
                                   

Distribution of Financial Guaranty Direct U.S. RMBS by Year Issued as of September 30, 2009

Year issued:
  Prime
First Lien(2)
  Closed End
Seconds
  HELOC   Alt-A
First Lien
  Alt-A
Option
ARMs
  Subprime
First Lien
  NIMs   Total Net Par
Outstanding
 

2004 and prior

  $ 8   $   $ 354   $ 119   $ 63   $ 1,710   $ 1   $ 2,255  

2005

    186         1,284     779     181     4,835     15     7,279  

2006

    162     459     2,078     879     1,043     548     87     5,257  

2007

    583     884     2,356     5,461     2,696     2,758     98     14,837  

2008

                        86         86  

2009

                                 
                                   

  $ 939   $ 1,343   $ 6,072   $ 7,239   $ 3,983   $ 9,937   $ 201   $ 29,714  
                                   

(1)
Assured's internal rating. Assured's scale is comparable to that of the nationally recognized rating agencies. The super senior category, which is not generally used by rating agencies, is used by the Company in instances where Assured's AAA-rated exposure has additional credit enhancement due to either (1) the existence of another security rated AAA that is subordinated to Assured's exposure or (2) Assured's exposure benefits from a different form of credit enhancement that would pay any claims first in the event that any of the exposures incurs a loss and such credit enhancement, in management's opinion, causes Assured's attachment point to be materially above the AAA attachment point.

(2)
Includes primarily Prime First Lien plus an insignificant amount of other miscellaneous MBS transactions

28



ASSURED GUARANTY LTD.

FINANCIAL GUARANTY DIRECT U.S. RMBS PROFILE (Continued)

(dollars in millions)

Distribution of Financial Guaranty Direct U.S. RMBS Net Par Outstanding by Rating(1) and Year Issued as of September 30, 2009

Year issued:
  Super
Senior
  AAA
Rated
  AA
Rated
  A
Rated
  BBB
Rated
  BIG
Rated
  Total  

2004 and prior

  $   $ 1,563   $ 69   $ 153   $ 83   $ 388   $ 2,255  

2005

    545     952     1,203     1,123     1,717     1,739     7,279  

2006

        389     246     13     543     4,066     5,257  

2007

        316     818     902     2,427     10,373     14,837  

2008

                    86         86  

2009

                             
                               

  $ 545   $ 3,220   $ 2,336   $ 2,190   $ 4,856   $ 16,566   $ 29,714  
                               

% of total

    1.8 %   10.8 %   7.9 %   7.4 %   16.3 %   55.8 %   100.0 %

Distribution of Financial Guaranty Direct U.S. RMBS Net Par Outstanding by Rating(1) and Year Insured as of September 30, 2009

Year insured:
  Super
Senior
  AAA
Rated
  AA
Rated
  A
Rated
  BBB
Rated
  BIG
Rated
  Total  

2004 and prior

  $   $ 1,563   $ 69   $ 153   $ 83   $ 388   $ 2,255  

2005

        336     103     205     626     1,659     2,930  

2006

    545     994     1,100     917     1,371     3,772     8,700  

2007

        327     818     13     1,379     10,747     13,284  

2008

            246     902     1,396         2,545  

2009

                             
                               

  $ 545   $ 3,220   $ 2,336   $ 2,190   $ 4,856   $ 16,566   $ 29,714  
                               

% of total

    1.8 %   10.8 %   7.9 %   7.4 %   16.3 %   55.8 %   100.0 %

(1)
Assured's internal rating. Assured's scale is comparable to that of the nationally recognized rating agencies. The super senior category, which is not generally used by rating agencies, is used by the Company in instances where Assured's AAA-rated exposure has additional credit enhancement due to either (1) the existence of another security rated AAA that is subordinated to Assured's exposure or (2) Assured's exposure benefits from a different form of credit enhancement that would pay any claims first in the event that any of the exposures incurs a loss and such credit enhancement, in management's opinion, causes Assured's attachment point to be materially above the AAA attachment point.

29



ASSURED GUARANTY LTD.

FINANCIAL GUARANTY DIRECT U.S. RMBS PROFILE (Continued)

(dollars in millions)

Distribution of Financial Guaranty Direct U.S. Mortgage-Backed Securities Issued January 1, 2005 or Later by Exposure Type, Average Pool Factor, Subordination, Cumulative Losses and 60+ Day Delinquencies as of September 30, 2009(1)

U.S. Prime First Lien(2)

Year issued:
  Net Par
Outstanding
  Pool
Factor(3)
  Subordination(4)   Cumulative
Losses(5)
  60+ Day
Delinquencies(6)
  Number of
Transactions
 

2005

  $ 186     65.9 %   5.4 %   5.5 %   0.4 %   6  

2006

    162     73.0 %   7.6 %   0.0 %   9.9 %   1  

2007

    583     79.1 %   11.1 %   9.5 %   0.9 %   1  

2008

                         

2009

                         
                           

  $ 931     75.9 %   9.7 %   8.6 %   0.8 %   8  
                           

U.S. CES

Year issued:
  Net Par
Outstanding
  Pool
Factor(3)
  Subordination(4)   Cumulative
Losses(5)
  60+ Day
Delinquencies(6)
  Number of
Transactions
 

2005

  $                      

2006

    459     29.0 %   (68.4 )%   16.1 %   10.6 %   2  

2007

    884     39.4 %   (16.9 )%   15.7 %   15.3 %   10  

2008

                         

2009

                         
                           

  $ 1,343     35.8 %   (34.5 )%   15.8 %   13.7 %   12  
                           

U.S. HELOC

Year issued:
  Net Par
Outstanding
  Pool
Factor(3)
  Subordination(4)   Cumulative
Losses(5)
  60+ Day
Delinquencies(6)
  Number of
Transactions
 

2005

  $ 1,284     26.2 %   0.6 %   10.1 %   11.9 %   6  

2006

    2,078     55.3 %   0.3 %   20.0 %   14.4 %   8  

2007

    2,356     48.3 %   3.8 %   19.4 %   7.4 %   8  

2008

                         

2009

                         
                           

  $ 5,718     45.8 %   1.8 %   17.5 %   11.0 %   22  
                           

30



ASSURED GUARANTY LTD.

FINANCIAL GUARANTY DIRECT U.S. RMBS PROFILE (Continued)

(dollars in millions)

U.S. Alt-A First Lien

Year issued:
  Net Par
Outstanding
  Pool
Factor(3)
  Subordination(4)   Cumulative
Losses(5)
  60+ Day
Delinquencies(6)
  Number of
Transactions
 

2005

  $ 779     49.1 %   18.0 %   2.8 %   16.6 %   21  

2006

    879     63.3 %   4.5 %   7.1 %   35.8 %   10  

2007

    5,461     71.0 %   18.1 %   4.1 %   30.9 %   14  

2008

                         

2009

                         
                           

  $ 7,119     67.7 %   16.4 %   4.3 %   29.9 %   45  
                           

(1)
For this release, net par outstanding is based on values as of September 2009. All performance information such as pool factor, subordination, cumulative losses and delinquency is based on September 30, 2009 information obtained from Intex, Bloomberg, and/or provided by the trustee and may be subject to restatement or correction.

(2)
Includes primarily Prime First Lien plus an insignificant amount of other miscellaneous MBS transactions

(3)
Pool factor is the percentage of the current collateral balance divided by the original collateral balance of the transactions at inception.

(4)
Represents the sum of subordinate tranches and over-collateralization, expressed as a percentage of total transaction size and does not include any benefit from excess interest collections that may be used to absorb losses.

(5)
Cumulative losses are defined as net charge-offs on the underlying loan collateral divided by the original pool balance.

(6)
60+ day delinquencies are defined as loans that are greater than 60 days delinquent and all loans that are in foreclosure, bankruptcy or REO divided by net par outstanding.

Distribution of Financial Guaranty Direct U.S. Mortgage-Backed Securities Issued January 1, 2005 or Later by Exposure Type, Average Pool Factor, Subordination, Cumulative Losses and 60+ Day Delinquencies as of September 30, 2009(1)

U.S. Alt-A Option ARMs

Year issued:
  Net Par
Outstanding
  Pool
Factor(2)
  Subordination(3)   Cumulative
Losses(4)
  60+ Day
Delinquencies(5)
  Number of
Transactions
 

2005

  $ 181     37.3 %   14.6 %   5.0 %   41.5 %   4  

2006

    1,043     66.8 %   9.9 %   5.6 %   46.5 %   7  

2007

    2,696     75.9 %   14.3 %   6.4 %   35.5 %   13  

2008

                         

2009

                         
                           

  $ 3,920     71.7 %   13.2 %   6.2 %   38.7 %   24  
                           

31



ASSURED GUARANTY LTD.

FINANCIAL GUARANTY DIRECT U.S. RMBS PROFILE (Continued)

(dollars in millions)

U.S. Subprime First Lien

Year issued:
  Net Par
Outstanding
  Pool
Factor(2)
  Subordination(3)   Cumulative Losses(4)   60+ Day
Delinquencies(5)
  Number of
Transactions
 

2005

  $ 4,835     30.4 %   60.1 %   9.6 %   43.2 %   12  

2006

    548     47.1 %   29.6 %   12.2 %   47.8 %   3  

2007

    2,758     71.0 %   29.4 %   7.0 %   46.8 %   13  

2008

    86     77.7 %   35.3 %   2.9 %   36.7 %   1  

2009

                         
                           

  $ 8,227     45.6 %   47.5 %   8.8 %   44.7 %   29  
                           

(1)
For this release, net par outstanding is based on values as of September 2009. All performance information such as pool factor, subordination, cumulative losses and delinquency is based on September 30, 2009 information obtained from Intex, Bloomberg, and/or provided by the trustee and may be subject to restatement or correction.

(2)
Pool factor is the percentage of the current collateral balance divided by the original collateral balance of the transactions at inception.

(3)
Represents the sum of subordinate tranches and over-collateralization, expressed as a percentage of total transaction size and does not include any benefit from excess interest collections that may be used to absorb losses.

(4)
Cumulative losses are defined as net charge-offs on the underlying loan collateral divided by the original pool balance.

(5)
60+ day delinquencies are defined as loans that are greater than 60 days delinquent and all loans that are in foreclosure, bankruptcy or REO divided by net par outstanding.

32



ASSURED GUARANTY LTD.

FINANCIAL GUARANTY DIRECT U.S. CMBS PROFILE

(dollars in millions)

Distribution of Financial Guaranty Direct U.S. Mortgage-Backed Securities Issued January 1, 2005 or Later by Exposure Type, Average Pool Factor, Subordination, Cumulative Losses and 60+ Day Delinquencies as of September 30, 2009(1)

U.S. Commercial Mortgage-Backed Securities ("CMBS")

Year issued:
  Net Par
Outstanding
  Pool Factor(2)   Subordination(3)   Cumulative
Losses(4)
  60+ Day
Delinquencies(5)
  Number of
Transactions
 

2005

  $ 3,517     94.6 %   28.9 %   0.1 %   2.1 %   159  

2006

    1,418     97.8 %   28.4 %   0.0 %   2.6 %   58  

2007

    502     86.5 %   21.7 %   0.1 %   3.6 %   13  

2008

                         

2009

                         
                           

  $ 5,437     93.6 %   28.1 %   0.1 %   2.4 %   230  
                           

U.S. Other CMBS

Year issued:
  Net Par
Outstanding
  % of Total   Avg. Initial Credit
Enhancement(6)
  Avg. Current
Enhancement(6)
 

Commercial Real Estate

  $ 741     54.0 %   49.2 %   48.8 %

CDO of CMBS

    630     46.0 %   29.1 %   42.4 %
                   

  $ 1,371     100.0 %   40.0 %   45.9 %
                   

(1)
For this release, net par outstanding is based on values as of September 2009. All performance information such as pool factor, subordination, cumulative losses and delinquency is based on September 30, 2009 information obtained from Intex, Bloomberg, and/or provided by the trustee and may be subject to restatement or correction.

(2)
Pool factor is the percentage of the current collateral balance divided by the original collateral balance of the transactions at inception.

(3)
Represents the sum of subordinate tranches and over-collateralization, expressed as a percentage of total transaction size and does not include any benefit from excess interest collections that may be used to absorb losses.

(4)
Cumulative losses are defined as net charge-offs on the underlying loan collateral divided by the original pool balance.

(5)
60+ day delinquencies are defined as loans that are greater than 60 days delinquent and all loans that are in foreclosure, bankruptcy or REO divided by net par outstanding.

(6)
"Average Credit Enhancement" is intended to provide a measure of the amount of equity and/or subordinated tranches that are junior in the capital structure to Assured's exposure, expressed as a percentage of the total transaction size, and reflects any reduction of that credit support resulting from defaults or other factors. For transactions where excess spread may be available to absorb certain losses, the amounts shown above do not include any benefit from excess spread. The calculation methodologies differ for the various asset classes to reflect differences in transaction structures in order to provide a measure that management believes is comparable across asset classes. Data is obtained from third-party sources such as trustee reports and may be subject to misstatement or correction.

33



ASSURED GUARANTY LTD.

CONSUMER RECEIVABLES PROFILE

(dollars in millions)

Distribution of Consolidated U.S. Consumer Receivables by Year Issued as of September 30, 2009

Year issued:
  Credit Cards   Student
Loans
  Manufactured
Housing
  Auto   Total Net Par
Outstanding
 

2004 and prior

  $ 47   $ 34   $ 340   $ 63   $ 484  

2005

    1,074     192         565     1,831  

2006

        715         1,335     2,050  

2007

    489     1,191         2,370     4,050  

2008

                660     660  

2009

    200     210             410  
                       

  $ 1,810   $ 2,342   $ 340   $ 4,993   $ 9,485  
                       

Distribution of Financial Guaranty Direct U.S. Consumer Receivables Net Par Outstanding by Rating(1) and Year Insured as of September 30, 2009

Year insured:
  Super
Senior
  AAA
Rated
  AA
Rated
  A
Rated
  BBB
Rated
  BIG
Rated
  Total  

2004 and prior

  $   $ 3   $ 52   $ 95   $ 52   $ 187   $ 389  

2005

        153         96     208         457  

2006

        420         48     999         1,467  

2007

        861             2,187         3,048  

2008

        1,014         118     528         1,660  

2009

        600         210             810  
                               

  $   $ 3,051   $ 52   $ 567   $ 3,974   $ 187   $ 7,831  
                               

% of total

    0.0 %   39.0 %   0.7 %   7.2 %   50.7 %   2.4 %   100.0 %

Distribution of Financial Guaranty Direct U.S. Consumer Receivables Net Par Outstanding by Rating(1) and Year Issued as of September 30, 2009

Year issued:
  Super
Senior
  AAA
Rated
  AA
Rated
  A
Rated
  BBB
Rated
  BIG
Rated
  Total  

2004 and prior

  $   $ 3   $ 52   $ 95   $ 52   $ 187   $ 389  

2005

        1,153         96     208         1,457  

2006

        420         48     999         1,467  

2007

        1,261             2,187         3,448  

2008

        14         118     528         660  

2009

        200         210             410  
                               

  $   $ 3,051   $ 52   $ 567   $ 3,974   $ 187   $ 7,831  
                               

% of total

    0.0 %   39.0 %   0.7 %   7.2 %   50.7 %   2.4 %   100.0 %

34



ASSURED GUARANTY LTD.

CONSUMER RECEIVABLES PROFILE (Continued)

(dollars in millions)

Distribution of Financial Guaranty Direct U.S. Consumer Receivables by Asset Class as of September 30, 2009

Asset class:
  Net Par
Outstanding
  % of Total   Average
Rating(1)
  Avg. Initial Credit
Enhancement(2)
  Avg. Current
Enhancement(2)
 

Student loans

  $ 1,471     18.8 % AAA     6.4 %   7.4 %

Credit cards

    1,689     21.6 % AAA     25.7 %   25.9 %

Auto

    4,337     55.4 % BBB     12.2 %   24.9 %

Manufactured Housing

    334     4.3 % BBB     27.6 %   26.7 %
                       

  $ 7,831     100.0 % A+     14.7 %   21.9 %
                       

(1)
Assured's internal rating. Assured's scale is comparable to that of the nationally recognized rating agencies. The super senior category, which is not generally used by rating agencies, is used by the Company in instances where Assured's AAA-rated exposure has additional credit enhancement due to either (1) the existence of another security rated AAA that is subordinated to Assured's exposure or (2) Assured's exposure benefits from a different form of credit enhancement that would pay any claims first in the event that any of the exposures incurs a loss and such credit enhancement, in management's opinion, causes Assured's attachment point to be materially above the AAA attachment point.

(2)
"Average Credit Enhancement" is intended to provide a measure of the amount of equity and/or subordinated tranches that are junior in the capital structure to Assured's exposure, expressed as a percentage of the total transaction size, and reflects any reduction of that credit support resulting from defaults or other factors. For transactions where excess spread may be available to absorb certain losses, the amounts shown above do not include any benefit from excess spread. The calculation methodologies differ for the various asset classes to reflect differences in transaction structures in order to provide a measure that management believes is comparable across asset classes. Data is obtained from third-party sources such as trustee reports and may be subject to misstatement or correction.

35



ASSURED GUARANTY LTD.

FINANCIAL GUARANTY DIRECT CREDIT DERIVATIVE EXPOSURE PROFILE

(dollars in millions)

Distribution of Financial Guaranty Direct Credit Derivative Exposure by Rating

 
  September 30, 2009  
Ratings(1):
  Net Par
Outstanding
  % of Total  

Super senior

  $ 43,593     35.8 %

AAA

    43,941     36.1 %

AA

    11,893     9.8 %

A

    5,625     4.6 %

BBB

    10,244     8.4 %

Below investment grade

    6,480     5.3 %
           
 

Total exposures

  $ 121,776     100.0 %
           

Distribution of Financial Guaranty Direct Credit Derivative Exposure by Sector and Average Rating

 
  September 30, 2009
Sector:
  Net Par
Outstanding
  Average
Rating(1)

Public Finance

         

United States:

         
 

General obligation

  $ 557   AA-
 

Healthcare

    319   A-
 

Municipal utilities

    202   A-
 

Tax backed

    141   A+
 

Infrastructure finance

    141   BBB+
 

Transportation

    36   A
 

Housing

    31   AA-
 

Other public finance

    29   B
 

Investor-owned utilities

    20   AAA
         
   

Total public finance—U.S. 

  $ 1,476   A+

Non-U.S.:

         
 

Pooled infrastructure

  $ 4,389   AAA
 

Infrastructure finance

    1,967   BBB
 

Regulated utilities

    1,099   BBB+
 

Other public finance

    989   AAA
         
   

Total public finance—non-U.S. 

  $ 8,444   AAA
         

Total public finance

  $ 9,920   AA
         

36



ASSURED GUARANTY LTD.

FINANCIAL GUARANTY DIRECT CREDIT DERIVATIVE EXPOSURE PROFILE (Continued)

(dollars in millions)

 
  September 30, 2009
Sector:
  Net Par
Outstanding
  Average
Rating(1)

Structured Finance

         

United States:

         
 

Pooled corporate obligations

  $ 66,112   AAA
 

Residential mortgage-backed and home equity

    11,666   BBB
 

Commercial mortgage-backed securities

    6,799   AAA
 

Commercial receivables

    665   BBB+
 

Consumer receivables

    545   AAA
 

Structured credit

    305   BBB-
 

Other structured finance

    188   B+
 

Insurance securitizations

    169   BBB+
         
   

Total structured finance—U.S. 

  $ 86,449   AA+

Non-U.S.:

         
 

Pooled corporate obligations

  $ 20,987   AAA
 

Residential mortgage-backed and home equity

    3,275   AAA
 

Commercial mortgage-backed securities

    452   AAA
 

Structured credit

    264   BBB
 

Other structured finance

    220   AAA
 

Commercial receivables

    127   A
 

Insurance securitizations

    82   B-
         
   

Total structured finance—non-U.S. 

  $ 25,407   AAA
         

Total structured finance

  $ 111,856   AA+
         

Total exposures

  $ 121,776   AA+
         

(1)
Assured's internal rating. Assured's scale is comparable to that of the nationally recognized rating agencies. The super senior category, which is not generally used by rating agencies, is used by the Company in instances where Assured's AAA-rated exposure has additional credit enhancement due to either (1) the existence of another security rated AAA that is subordinated to Assured's exposure or (2) Assured's exposure benefits from a different form of credit enhancement that would pay any claims first in the event that any of the exposures incurs a loss and such credit enhancement, in management's opinion, causes Assured's attachment point to be materially above the AAA attachment point.

        Please refer to Glossary for description of selected types of U.S. public finance, non-U.S. public finance, U.S. structured finance and non-U.S. structured finance obligations that the Company insures and reinsures.

37



ASSURED GUARANTY LTD.

UNREALIZED GAINS (LOSSES) ON CREDIT DERIVATIVES

Unrealized Gains (Losses) on Credit Derivatives as of September 30, 2009

Asset Type:
  Net Par
Outstanding
(in billions)
  Wtd. Avg.
Credit
Rating
  3Q-09
Unrealized
Gain (Loss)
(in millions)
  YTD 3Q-09
Unrealized
Gain (Loss)
(in millions)
 

Financial Guaranty Direct:

                         
 

Pooled corporates(1)

                         
 

High yield corporates

  $ 60.7     AAA   $ 47.9   $ (28.0 )
 

Trust preferred

    6.1     BBB-     (32.3 )   (32.6 )
 

Market value CDOs of corporates

    5.5     AAA     (0.8 )   (8.1 )
 

Investment grade corporates

    14.8     Super
senior

(5)
  (21.6 )   (18.7 )
 

CDO of CDOs (corporate)

            6.6     6.3  
                     
   

Total pooled corporate obligations

    87.1     AAA     (0.2 )   (81.1 )
 

U.S. RMBS(2):

                         
 

Prime first lien

    3.1     A+     (31.3 )   (70.0 )
 

Alt-A first lien

    6.2     BB+     (41.8 )   (287.6 )
 

Subprime lien

    5.5     A+     (1.5 )   2.2  
                     
   

Total U.S. RMBS

    14.8     A-     (74.6 )   (355.4 )
 

Commercial mortgage-backed securities(3)

    7.3     AAA     0.1     (31.9 )
 

Other(4)

    12.6     AA-     (102.2 )   52.3  
                     

Financial Guaranty Direct:

    121.8     AA+     (176.9 )   (416.1 )

Financial Guaranty Reinsurance:

    1.6     AA+     (28.4 )   (16.5 )
                     
 

Total Financial Guaranty

  $ 123.4     AA+   $ (205.3 ) $ (432.6 )
                     

(1)
Corporate collateralized loan obligations, market value CDOs, and trust preferred securities include all U.S. structured finance pooled corporate obligations and international pooled corporate obligations.

(2)
Residential mortgage-backed securities is comprised of prime and subprime U.S. mortgage-backed and home equity securities and residential international mortgage-backed and home equity securities.

(3)
Commercial mortgage-backed securities is comprised of commercial U.S. structured finance and commercial international mortgage backed securities.

(4)
Other includes all other U.S. and international asset classes, such as commercial receivables and international infrastructure and pooled infrastructure securities.

(5)
The "super senior category", which is a category not generally used by rating agencies, is used by the Company in instances where the Company's AAA-rated exposure has additional credit enhancement due to either (1) the existence of another security rated AAA that is subordinated to the Company's exposure or (2) the Company's exposure benefits from a different form of credit enhancement that would pay any claims first in the event that any of the exposures incurs a loss, and such credit enhancement, in management's opinion, causes the Company's attachment point to be materially above the AAA attachment point.

38



ASSURED GUARANTY LTD.

BELOW INVESTMENT GRADE EXPOSURES

As of September 30, 2009

(dollars in millions)

Below Investment Grade Exposures Greater Than $50 Million as of September 30, 2009

Name or Description
  Wtd. Avg.
Remaining Life
  Net Par
Outstanding
  Internal
Rating(1)
  Current Credit
Enhancement
 

Deutsche ALT-A Securities Mortgage Loan Trust, Series 2007-2

    28.7   $ 937   CCC     7.9 %

CWHEQ Revolving Home Equity Loan Trust, Series 2006-I

    4.8     757   CCC     0.0 %

US A Rated Residential MBS

    2.6     665   BB     34.6 %

CWHEQ Revolving Home Equity Loan Trust, Series 2006-F

    4.2     631   CCC     0.5 %

MASTR Adjustable Rate Mortgages Trust 2007-3

    3.2     607   CCC     11.5 %

Jefferson County Alabama Sewer

    19.4     598   D     N/A  

MortgageIT Securities Corp. Mortgage Loan Trust, Series 2007-2

    3.8     583   BB     11.1 %

Deutsche Mortgage Securities Re-REMIC Trust Certificates, Series 2007-RS7

    6.5     518   B     27.7 %

Ballantyne Re PLC Class A-2 Floating Rate Notes

    26.6     500   D     NM  

Deutsche ALT-A Securities Mortgage Loan Trust, Series 2007-3

    3.5     477   B     14.2 %

Detroit (City of) Michigan

    11.8     461   BB     N/A  

CWHEQ Revolving Home Equity Loan Trust, Series 2007-D

    5.6     453   CCC     0.0 %

Countrywide Home Loans Alternative Loan Trust 2007-HY9

    1.9     441   CCC     8.6 %

Deutsche Mortgage Securities Re-REMIC Trust Certificates, Series 2007-RS3

    1.7     423   B     21.6 %

Orkney Re II, PLC Floating Rate Notes

    8.8     423   D     NM  

Option One Mortgage Loan Trust 2007-FXD2

    4.2     412   BB     20.8 %

AAA Trust 2007-2

    2.0     400   B     40.3 %

CWHEQ Revolving Home Equity Loan Trust, Series 2007-A

    4.4     396   CCC     0.0 %

Nomura Asset Acceptance Corporation, Alternative Loan Trust, Series 2007-1

    4.5     390   CCC     7.2 %

CWHEQ Revolving Home Equity Loan Trust, Series 2005-D

    4.4     380   CCC     0.0 %

HarborView Mortgage Loan Trust 2006-12

    3.9     363   BB     11.9 %

MASTR Adjustable Rate Mortgages Trust 2007-1

    3.8     351   B     7.4 %

CWHEQ Revolving Home Equity Loan Trust, Series 2007-B

    4.5     346   CCC     0.0 %

Aeroporti Di Roma—Romulus Finance S.R.L. (Rome Airport)

    3.7     314   BB     N/A  

GMACM Home Equity Loan Trust, Series 2004-HE3

    4.1     308   BB     0.3 %

Taberna Preferred Funding IV, Ltd. 

    26.2     292   BB     44.7 %

39



ASSURED GUARANTY LTD.

BELOW INVESTMENT GRADE EXPOSURES (Continued)

As of September 30, 2009

(dollars in millions)

Name or Description
  Wtd. Avg.
Remaining Life
  Net Par
Outstanding
  Internal
Rating(1)
  Current Credit
Enhancement
 

IndyMac Home Equity Mortgage Loan Asset-Backed Trust, Series 2007-H1

    4.8     282   CCC     0.0 %

Alesco Preferred Funding XVI, Ltd. 

    23.6     260   B     13.1 %

Terwin Mortgage Trust 2006-12SL

    20.8     256   CCC     (74.7 )%

Taberna Preferred Funding II, Ltd. 

    26.1     244   CCC     36.6 %

Attentus CDO I, Ltd. 

    11.2     237   BB     36.9 %

CWHEQ Revolving Home Equity Loan Trust 2005-J

    4.6     216   N/A     0.0 %

Soundview Home Loan Trust 2007-WMC1

    3.3     215   CCC     15.9 %

CWHEQ Revolving Home Equity Loan Trust 2005-J

    4.6     214   CCC     0.0 %

Terwin Mortgage Trust 2007-1SL

    21.1     211   CCC     (77.9 )%

HarborView Mortgage Loan Trust 2007-1

    4.4     205   BB     14.4 %

HarborView Mortgage Loan Trust 2006-1

    2.2     204   CCC     9.9 %

Terwin Mortgage Trust 2006-10SL

    20.0     203   CCC     (60.5 )%

Attentus CDO II, Ltd. 

    13.0     196   BB     33.9 %

Taberna Preferred Funding III, Ltd. 

    21.7     195   B     36.5 %

CWHEQ Revolving Home Equity Loan Trust, Series 2005-C

    4.2     181   BB     0.2 %

Jefferson County Alabama School Limited Obligation Sales Tax

    11.5     178   BB     N/A  

Detroit (City of) Michigan School District

    6.2     176   BB     N/A  

Countrywide Home Loans Alternative Loan Trust 2007-OA10

    2.3     176   CCC     10.3 %

Flagstar Home Equity Loan Trust 2006-2

    3.2     174   CCC     0.0 %

HarborView Mortgage Loan Trust 2006-10

    4.4     172   B     6.4 %

NRG Peaker Finance Company LLC

    5.5     164   B     N/A  

Nomura Asset Acceptance Corporation Alternative Loan Trust, Series 2007-S2

    2.3     158   CCC     0.0 %

St. Barnabas Health System—New Jersey

    10.8     155   BB     N/A  

CSAB Mortgage-Backed Trust 2006-3

    4.7     155   CCC     3.4 %

National Collegiate Trust—Private Student Loan Transaction

    23.9     155   BB-     N/A  

Guaranteed Student Loan transaction

    31.3     152   C     N/A  

Taberna Preferred Funding VI, Ltd. 

    27.2     152   BB     43.5 %

Renaissance Home Equity Loan Trust 2007-3

    6.4     148   BB     27.6 %

Texas Turnpike Authority—Central Texas Turnpike Project

    25.7     146   BB+     N/A  

New Orleans (City of) Louisiana

    3.6     142   BB     N/A  

Lehman XS Trust, Series 2007-16N

    3.8     135   BB     11.6 %

Mashantucket Pequot Tribe—Connecticut

    2.6     130   B     N/A  

American Home Mortgage Assets Trust 2007-4

    6.0     127   CCC     3.2 %

IndyMac IMSC Mortgage Loan Trust 2007-HOA1

    6.6     127   CCC     4.0 %

40



ASSURED GUARANTY LTD.

BELOW INVESTMENT GRADE EXPOSURES (Continued)

As of September 30, 2009

(dollars in millions)

Name or Description
  Wtd. Avg.
Remaining Life
  Net Par
Outstanding
  Internal
Rating(1)
  Current Credit
Enhancement
 

ACE Securities Corp. Home Equity Loan Trust, Series 2007-SL3

    4.9     125   CCC     19.0 %

NATIONAL COLLEGIATE TRUST SERIES 20

    23.9     125   BB-     N/A  

International Synthetic High Yield Pooled Corporate CDO

    2.7     116   CCC     12.9 %

TBW Mortgage-Backed Trust Series 2007-2

    3.5     113   B     6.5 %

Conseco Finance Manufactured Housing Contract, Series 2001-2

    1.9     111   BB     18.3 %

Countrywide Home Loans Alternative Loan Trust 2005-22T1

    5.1     103   B     6.7 %

Guaranteed Student Loan transaction

    36.8     95   B     N/A  

Harrisburg (City of) Pennsylvania

    14.3     93   BB+     N/A  

Taberna Preferred Funding III, Ltd. 

    21.7     93   B     36.5 %

CWHEQ Revolving Home Equity Loan Trust, Series 2006-H

    3.9     93   CCC     0.0 %

CSAB Mortgage-Backed Trust 2006-2

    4.7     92   CCC     2.7 %

Deutsche ALT-B Securities Mortgage Loan Trust, Series 2006-AB1

    5.1     90   CCC     8.0 %

Deutsche ALT-B Securities Mortgage Loan Trust, Series 2006-AB4

    3.4     88   CCC     3.2 %

ACE Securities Corp. Home Equity Loan Trust, Series 2006-GP1

    2.9     87   CCC     0.0 %

Orlando Florida Tourist Development Tax

    29.1     86   BB     N/A  

Erie (City of) Pennsylvania

    9.0     84   BB+     N/A  

Xenia Rural Water District, Iowa

    20.3     84   BB     N/A  

GreenPoint Credit Manufactured Housing, Series 2000-4

    4.7     82   BB     16.8 %

MASTR Asset Backed Securities Trust 2005-NC2

    4.2     80   B     27.2 %

DeKalb County Medical Center—Georgia

    13.5     78   BB     N/A  

Terwin Mortgage Trust 2007-6ALT

    4.3     77   CCC     3.7 %

International Synthetic High Yield Pooled Corporate CDO

    2.7     77   CCC     12.9 %

ACE Securities Corp. Home Equity Loan Trust, Series 2007-SL2

    1.7     74   CCC     0.0 %

GSAA Home Equity Trust 2005-12

    2.4     71   BB     11.4 %

CSMC Mortgage-Backed Trust 2007-3

    7.3     71   CCC     3.3 %

SACO I Trust 2005-GP1

    1.2     68   CCC     0.0 %

Countrywide Home Loans Alternative Loan Trust 2005-62

    2.0     68   CCC     14.1 %

ACE Securities Corp. Home Equity Loan Trust, Series 2007-SL1

    21.3     66   CCC     (46.2 )%

Customer Asset Protection Company (CAPCO), Excess SIPC

    0.4     63   BB     N/A  

41



ASSURED GUARANTY LTD.

BELOW INVESTMENT GRADE EXPOSURES (Continued)

As of September 30, 2009

(dollars in millions)

Name or Description
  Wtd. Avg.
Remaining Life
  Net Par
Outstanding
  Internal
Rating(1)
  Current Credit
Enhancement
 

CSAB Mortgage-Backed Trust 2007-1

    5.1     63   CCC     3.8 %

DSLA Mortgage Loan Trust 2005-AR5

    2.5     61   CCC     10.0 %

FFMLT 2007-FFC

    4.1     60   CCC     0.0 %

Deutsche ALT-B Securities Mortgage Loan Trust, Series 2006-AB3

    3.2     60   CCC     3.6 %

Luminent Mortgage Trust 2006-2

    1.2     55   CCC     11.5 %

Private Commercial Receivables Transaction

    3.9     55   BB+     N/A  

CSAB Mortgage-Backed Trust 2006-4

    4.8     53   CCC     4.7 %

Countrywide Home Loans Alternative Loan Trust 2005-55CB

    7.3     52   BB     9.4 %

Chevy Chase Funding LLC Mortgage-Backed Certificates, Series 2006-2

    3.3     52   B     17.8 %

Private Commercial Receivables Transaction

    2.6     50   BB     N/A  
                       

Total

        $ 21,781            
                       

(1)
Assured's internal rating. Assured's scale is comparable to that of the nationally recognized rating agencies. The super senior category, which is not generally used by rating agencies, is used by the Company in instances where Assured's AAA-rated exposure has additional credit enhancement due to either (1) the existence of another security rated AAA that is subordinated to Assured's exposure or (2) Assured's exposure benefits from a different form of credit enhancement that would pay any claims first in the event that any of the exposures incurs a loss, and such credit enhancement, in management's opinion, causes Assured's attachment point to be materially above the AAA attachment point.

42



ASSURED GUARANTY LTD.

LARGEST EXPOSURES BY SECTOR

As of September 30, 2009

(dollars in millions)

50 Largest U.S. Public Finance Exposures

Credit Name:
  Net Par
Outstanding
  Rating(1)

New Jersey (State of)

  $ 4,974   AA-

New York (State of)

    3,889   AA

Massachusetts (Commonwealth of)

    3,432   AA

California (State of)

    3,420   A

New York (City of) New York

    3,288   AA-

Puerto Rico (Commonwealth of)

    2,541   BBB-

Washington (State of)

    2,407   AA

Chicago (City of) Illinois

    2,387   A+

Houston Texas Water and Sewer Authority

    2,355   A+

Port Authority of New York and New Jersey

    2,277   AA-

Wisconsin (State of)

    2,253   AA-

Los Angeles Unified School District

    2,146   AA

Philadelphia (City of) Pennsylvania

    2,106   BBB

Miami-Dade County Florida Aviation Authority—Miami International Airport

    2,063   A+

New York MTA Transportation Authority

    2,054   A

New York City Municipal Water Finance Authority

    1,993   AA+

Massachusetts (Commonwealth of) State Sales Tax

    1,949   AA

University of California Board of Regents

    1,886   AA-

Long Island Power Authority

    1,857   A-

Michigan (State of)

    1,813   A+

Pennsylvania (Commonwealth of)

    1,723   AA-

Chicago Illinois Public Schools

    1,699   A+

California (State of) Department of Water Resources

    1,688   A-

District Of Columbia

    1,641   A+

Illinois (State of)

    1,634   AA

Illinois Toll Highway Authority

    1,556   AA

Florida (State of)

    1,547   AA+

Kentucky (Commonwealth of)

    1,535   AA-

Chicago-O'Hare Airport

    1,524   A

New York State Thruway Highway Trust Fund

    1,498   AA-

Miami-Dade County School Board

    1,447   A

Hawaii (State of) Department of Hawaiian Home Lands

    1,426   AA

Puerto Rico Highway & Transportation Authority

    1,403   BBB

Los Angeles Department of Water & Power—Electric Revenue Bonds

    1,397   AA-

New York MTA Dedicated Tax

    1,387   AA-

San Francisco Airports Commission

    1,370   A

Massachusetts (State of) Water Resources

    1,346   AA

Puerto Rico Electric Power Authority

    1,333   A-

New Jersey Turnpike Authority

    1,321   A

Metropolitan Washington DC Airports Authority

    1,283   AA-

Los Angeles County Metropolitan Transportation Authority—Sales Tax

    1,282   AA

Atlanta Georgia Water & Sewer System

    1,255   BBB+

Broward County Florida School Board

    1,247   AA-

Connecticut (State of)

    1,237   AA-

Pennsylvania Turnpike Commission

    1,230   A+

Clark County Nevada School District

    1,229   AA

Skyway Concession Company Llc

    1,199   BBB

Detroit Michigan Sewer

    1,170   A+

Austin Texas Combined Utility Systems

    1,149   AA-

Philadelphia Pennsylvania School District

    1,149   A
         
 

Total top 50 U.S. public finance exposures

  $ 92,995    
         

(1)
Assured's internal rating. Assured's scale is comparable to that of the nationally recognized rating agencies. The super senior category, which is not generally used by rating agencies, is used by the Company in instances where Assured's AAA-rated exposure has additional credit enhancement due to either (1) the existence of another security rated AAA that is subordinated to Assured's exposure or (2) Assured's exposure benefits from a different form of credit enhancement that would pay any claims first in the event that any of the exposures incurs a loss, and such credit enhancement, in management's opinion, causes Assured's attachment point to be materially above the AAA attachment point.

43



ASSURED GUARANTY LTD.

LARGEST EXPOSURES BY SECTOR (Continued)

As of September 30, 2009

(dollars in millions)

50 Largest U.S. Structured Finance Exposures

Credit Name:
  Net Par
Outstanding
  Rating(1)   Credit
Enhancement
 

US Synthetic High Yield Pooled Corporate CDO

  $ 1,463   AA-     40.0 %

US AA Rated Previously Insured Cash Flow CLO

    1,399   AA     30.9 %

International AAA Cash Flow CLO

    1,254   AAA     34.5 %

International Super AAA Synthetic Investment Grade Pooled Corporate CDO

    1,166   Super senior     14.0 %

Private Credit Card Transaction

    1,000   AAA     12.5 %

Deutsche ALT-A Securities Mortgage Loan Trust, Series 2007-2

    937   CCC     7.9 %

International Super AAA Synthetic Investment Grade Pooled Corporate CDO

    811   Super senior     23.4 %

US Super AAA Synthetic Investment Grade Pooled Corporate CDO

    771   Super senior     14.9 %

CWHEQ Revolving Home Equity Loan Trust, Series 2006-I

    757   CCC     0.0 %

US Super AAA Synthetic Investment Grade Pooled Corporate CDO

    754   Super senior     26.3 %

International Synthetic High Yield Pooled Corporate CDO

    738   A     30.9 %

US Super AAA Synthetic High Yield Pooled Corporate CDO

    728   AAA     25.0 %

FORTRESS CREDIT INVESTMENTS I LTD

    672   AAA     36.5 %

MASTR Asset Backed Securities Trust 2007-NCW

    665   BB     34.6 %

280 FUNDING I

    660   AAA     38.3 %

International Super AAA Synthetic Investment Grade Pooled Corporate CDO

    653   Super senior     18.3 %

CWHEQ Revolving Home Equity Loan Trust, Series 2006-F

    631   CCC     0.5 %

MASTR Adjustable Rate Mortgages Trust 2007-3

    607   CCC     11.5 %

Deutsche Mortgage Securities Re-REMIC Trust Certificates, Series 2007-RS4

    603   BBB     25.4 %

Private Structured Credit

    600   BBB+     Private  

ANCHORAGE CROSSOVER CREDIT FINANCE LTD

    600   AAA     29.1 %

ARES ENHANCED CREDIT OPPORTUNITIES FUND LTD

    595   AAA     41.0 %

Applebee's Enterprises LLC

    584   BBB-     33.9 %

MortgageIT Securities Corp. Mortgage Loan Trust, Series 2007-2

    583   BB     11.1 %

Americredit 2007-B-F

    578   BBB     17.8 %

SANDELMAN FINANCE 2006-1 LIMITED

    563   AA     28.4 %

US Super AAA Synthetic High Yield Pooled Corporate CDO

    562   AAA     24.3 %

Deutsche Mortgage Securities Re-REMIC Trust Certificates, Series 2007-RS6

    558   BBB-     26.9 %

Deutsche Mortgage Securities Re-REMIC Trust Certificates, Series 2007-RS5

    549   A     26.2 %

US Super AAA Synthetic High Yield Pooled Corporate CDO

    523   Super senior     24.5 %

US Super AAA Synthetic High Yield Pooled Corporate CDO

    522   Super senior     29.7 %

Deutsche Mortgage Securities Re-REMIC Trust Certificates, Series 2007-RS7

    518   B     27.7 %

US Super AAA Synthetic Investment Grade Pooled Corporate CDO

    514   Super senior     14.4 %

Eastland CLO LTD

    511   Super senior     29.6 %

Denali Capital CLO VII, Ltd. 

    500   AAA     20.6 %

LIICA Holdings, LLC

    495   AA     28.5 %

US Synthetic High Yield Pooled Corporate CDO

    494   AA     46.7 %

Shenandoah Trust Capital I Term Securities

    484   A+     19.3 %

Deutsche ALT-A Securities Mortgage Loan Trust, Series 2007-3

    477   B     14.2 %

International Super AAA Synthetic Investment Grade Pooled Corporate CDO

    463   Super senior     12.9 %

US Super AAA Synthetic High Yield Pooled Corporate CDO

    461   Super senior     25.0 %

Avenue CLO V, Ltd. 

    460   AAA     16.4 %

CWHEQ Revolving Home Equity Loan Trust, Series 2007-D

    453   CCC     0.0 %

Private Student Loan Transaction 2007

    450   AAA     11.0 %

KKR FINANCIAL CLO 2007-1 LTD

    443   AAA     40.7 %

Countrywide Home Loans Alternative Loan Trust 2007-HY9

    441   CCC     8.6 %

US Super AAA Synthetic High Yield Pooled Corporate CDO

    440   AAA     29.5 %

LIBERTY CLO LTD

    437   AAA     33.6 %

International Super AAA Synthetic Investment Grade Pooled Corporate CDO

    433   Super senior     11.9 %

Grayson CLO LTD

    432   Super senior     21.7 %
                 
 

Total top 50 U.S. structured finance exposures

  $ 31,992            
                 

(1)
Assured's internal rating. Assured's scale is comparable to that of the nationally recognized rating agencies. The super senior category, which is not generally used by rating agencies, is used by the Company in instances where Assured's AAA-rated exposure has additional credit enhancement due to either (1) the existence of another security rated AAA that is subordinated to Assured's exposure or (2) Assured's exposure benefits from a different form of credit enhancement that would pay any claims first in the event that any of the exposures incurs a loss and such credit enhancement, in management's opinion, causes Assured's attachment point to be materially above the AAA attachment point.

44



ASSURED GUARANTY LTD.

LARGEST EXPOSURES BY SECTOR (Continued)

As of September 30, 2009

(dollars in millions)

25 Largest Non-U.S. Exposures

Credit Name:
  Net Par
Outstanding
  Rating(1)

Quebec Provence

  $ 2,423   A+

Sydney Airport Finance Company

    1,510   BBB

Thames Water Utility Finance PLC

    1,366   BBB+

Prime European RMBS

    1,324   AAA

Essential Public Infrastructure Capital III

    909   Super senior

Channel Link Enterprises Finance Plc

    901   BBB

Essential Public Infrastructure Capital II

    863   Super senior

Southern Gas Networks Plc

    832   BBB

International AAA Sovereign Debt Synthetic CDO

    821   AAA

International Super AAA Synthetic Investment Grade Pooled Corporate CDO

    756   Super senior

Reliance Rail Finance Pty. Limited

    721   A-

International Infrastructure Pool

    689   A-

International Infrastructure Pool

    689   A-

International Infrastructure Pool

    689   A-

Capital Hospitals (Issuer) plc

    681   BBB-

United Utilities Water PLC

    679   A

Paragon Mortgages (No.13) Plc

    663   AAA

Powercor Australia LLC

    622   A-

Artesian Finance II Plc (Southern)—Swap Policy

    613   A-

Japan Expressway Holding and Debt Repaymnet Agency

    610   AA-

International Super AAA Synthetic Investment Grade Pooled Corporate CDO

    605   Super senior

Campania Region—Healthcare receivable

    603   A-

Taberna Europe CDO II Plc

    597   BBB-

Global Senior Loan Index Fund 1 B.V. 

    570   AAA

Stichting Profile Securitisation I

    550   Super senior
         
 

Total top 25 non-U.S. exposures

  $ 21,286    
         

(1)
Assured's internal rating. Assured's scale is comparable to that of the nationally recognized rating agencies. The super senior category, which is not generally used by rating agencies, is used by the Company in instances where Assured's AAA-rated exposure has additional credit enhancement due to either (1) the existence of another security rated AAA that is subordinated to Assured's exposure or (2) Assured's exposure benefits from a different form of credit enhancement that would pay any claims first in the event that any of the exposures incurs a loss and such credit enhancement, in management's opinion, causes Assured's attachment point to be materially above the AAA attachment point.

45



ASSURED GUARANTY LTD.

LARGEST EXPOSURES BY SECTOR (Continued)

As of September 30, 2009

(dollars in millions)

10 Largest U.S. Residential Mortgage Servicers Exposures

Servicer:
  Net Par
Outstanding
 

Countrywide Home Loans Servicing LP

  $ 9,287  

American Home Mortgage Acceptance, Inc. 

    3,062  

GMAC Mortgage Corporation

    2,766  

Wells Fargo Bank Minnesota

    2,378  

Ocwen Loan Servicing LLC

    1,239  

One West

    1,124  

JPMorgan Chase Bank, National Association

    1,040  

Specialized Loan Servicing LLC

    964  

Select Portfolio Servicing, Inc

    513  

First Tennessee Bank N.A. 

    474  
       
 

Total top 10 residential mortgage servicers exposures

  $ 22,847  
       

10 Largest U.S. Healthcare Exposures

Credit Name:
  Net Par
Outstanding
  Rating(1)   State

CHRISTUS Health

  $ 491   A+   TX

Methodist Healthcare System

    469   A   TN

MultiCare Health System

    395   A+   WA

Virtua Health

    370   A   NJ

Iowa Health System

    339   A+   IA

Covenant Health

    338   A-   TN

Meridian Health System

    336   A-   NJ

Bon Secours Health System Obligated Group

    314   A-   MD

Sutter Health (fka Sutter/CHS Obligated Group)

    305   AA-   CA

Catholic Healthcare West

    297   A   CA
             
 

Total top 10 U.S. healthcare exposures

  $ 3,654        
             

(1)
Assured's internal rating. Assured's scale is comparable to that of the nationally recognized rating agencies. The super senior category, which is not generally used by rating agencies, is used by the Company in instances where Assured's AAA-rated exposure has additional credit enhancement due to either (1) the existence of another security rated AAA that is subordinated to Assured's exposure or (2) Assured's exposure benefits from a different form of credit enhancement that would pay any claims first in the event that any of the exposures incurs a loss, and such credit enhancement, in management's opinion, causes Assured's attachment point to be materially above the AAA attachment point.

46



ASSURED GUARANTY LTD.

SURVEILLANCE CATEGORIES

(dollars in millions)

Net Par Outstanding by Below Investment Grade Category(1)

 
  September 30, 2009  
Description:
  Net Par
Outstanding
  % of Total   Number of
Credits in
Category
 

BIG:

                   
 

Category 1

  $ 12,364     51.5 %   305  
 

Category 2

    7,504     31.2 %   199  
 

Category 3

    4,160     17.3 %   123  
               
   

BIG Total

  $ 24,028     100.0 %   627  
               

(1)
Effective January 1, 2009 Assured adopted ASC 944-20. Assured's surveillance department is responsible for monitoring our portfolio of credits and maintains a list of below investment grade ("BIG") credits. The BIG credits are divided into three categories: BIG Category 1: BIG transactions showing sufficient deterioration to make material losses possible, but for which no losses have been incurred. Non-investment grade transactions on which liquidity claims have been paid are in this category. Intense monitoring and intervention is employed, with internal credit ratings reviewed quarterly. BIG Category 2: BIG transactions for which expected losses have been established but for which no unreimbursed claims have yet been paid. Intense monitoring and intervention is employed, with internal credit ratings reviewed quarterly. BIG Category 3: BIG transactions for which expected losses have been established and on which unreimbursed claims have been paid. Transactions remain in this category when claims have been paid and only a recoverable remains. Intense monitoring and intervention is employed, with internal credit ratings reviewed quarterly.

47



ASSURED GUARANTY LTD.

LOSS AND LOSS ADJUSTMENT EXPENSE ("LAE") RESERVES BY SEGMENT/TYPE

(dollars in millions)

 
  As of September 30, 2009  
Financial guaranty insurance reserves by segment and type(1):
  Financial
Guaranty
Direct
  Financial
Guaranty
Reinsurance
  Mortgage
Guaranty
  Total
Financial
Guaranty
  Other   Total  

Case

  $ 137.7   $ 76.0   $ 0.1   $ 213.8   $ 1.1   $ 214.9  

Incurred but not reported ("IBNR") and portfolio

            2.0     2.0     1.8     3.8  
                           
 

Total financial guaranty insurance loss and LAE reserves(2)

  $ 137.7   $ 76.0   $ 2.1   $ 215.8   $ 2.9   $ 218.7  
                           

Credit derivative reserves by segment and type:

                                     

Case

  $ 371.2   $   $   $ 371.2   $   $ 371.2  
                           
 

Total credit derivative reserves

  $ 371.2   $   $   $ 371.2   $   $ 371.2  
                           
 

Total loss and LAE reserves

  $ 508.9   $ 76.0   $ 2.1   $ 587.0   $ 2.9   $ 589.9  
                           

(1)
The Company adopted ASC 944-20 effective January 1, 2009.

48



ASSURED GUARANTY LTD.

LOSS AND LOSS ADJUSTMENT EXPENSES

As of September 30, 2009

(dollars in millions)

 
  Total Net Par
Outstanding for
BIG
transactions
  Wtd. Avg.
Remaining
Life
  3Q-09 Incurred
Losses(2)(4)
  YTD 3Q-09
Incurred
Losses(2)(4)
  Loss and Loss
Expense
Adjustment
Reserves(3)(4)
  Expected
Losses
  Credit
Derivative
Losses
 

Total Financial Guaranty Direct and Reinsurance:(1)

                                           
 

Prime first lien

  $ 638.7     4.2   $ 2.2   $ 1.9   $ 2.2   $ 2.2   $  
 

Prime closed end seconds

    1,310.1     13.5     (0.2 )   35.2     89.1     30.5     58.6  
 

Prime HELOC

    4,795.4     4.6     58.8     99.2     14.9     14.9      
 

Alt-A first lien

    4,075.8     9.9     77.4     100.4     121.0     20.5     100.5  
 

Alt-A option ARMs

    3,499.7     3.7     86.9     114.9     133.0     19.7     113.4  
 

Subprime first lien

    2,453.4     4.1     19.2     34.6     86.8     21.8     65.0  
                                 
   

Total U.S. RMBS

    16,773.1     6.3     244.3     386.2     447.0     109.6     337.5  
 

Other structured finance

    3,718.5     18.7     30.6     9.8     96.0     62.3     33.7  
 

Public finance

    3,536.3     13.9     0.4     21.6     42.0     42.0      
                                 

Total Financial Guaranty Direct and Reinsurance

  $ 24,027.9     9.3   $ 275.3   $ 417.6   $ 585.0   $ 213.9   $ 371.2  
                                 

(1)
Includes financial guaranty and insured derivatives in the insured portfolio.

(2)
Includes loss and loss adjustment expenses (recoveries) and incurred losses on credit derivatives for the financial guaranty direct and reinsurance segments only.

(3)
Includes loss and loss adjustment expense reserves for financial guaranty and credit derivatives for the financial guaranty direct and reinsurance segments only.

(4)
The Company adopted ASC 944-20 effective January 1, 2009.

49



ASSURED GUARANTY LTD.

SUMMARY FINANCIAL AND STATISTICAL DATA

(dollars in millions, except per share amounts)

 
   
  Year Ended December 31,  
 
  YTD 2009   2008   2007   2006  

GAAP Summary Income Statement Data

                         
 

Net earned premiums(1)

  $ 557.1   $ 261.4   $ 159.3   $ 144.8  
 

Realized gains and other settlements on credit derivatives

    114.8     117.6     74.0     73.9  
 

Net investment income

    171.6     162.6     128.1     111.5  
 

Total expenses(1)

    575.3     440.9     161.4     150.4  
 

(Loss) income before provision for income taxes

    (209.3 )   112.3     (463.0 )   190.0  
 

Net income (loss) of Assured Guaranty Ltd. and subsidiaries

    (119.5 )   68.9     (303.3 )   159.7  
 

Operating income(b)

    160.9     74.5     178.0     157.2  
 

Net (loss) income of Assured Guaranty Ltd. and subsidiaries per diluted share(2)

  $ (0.22 ) $ 0.77   $ (4.38 ) $ 2.13  
 

Operating income per diluted share(2)

  $ 0.44   $ 0.84   $ 2.57   $ 2.12  
 

Expense ratio(f)

    23.9 %   38.7 %   55.8 %   59.2 %
                   

GAAP Summary Balance Sheet Data (End of Period)

                         
 

Total investments and cash

  $ 10,201.5   $ 3,643.6   $ 3,147.9   $ 2,469.9  
 

Total assets

    16,202.6     4,555.7     3,762.9     2,931.6  
 

Unearned premium reserves(1)

    8,632.7     1,233.7     887.2     631.0  
 

Loss and LAE reserves(1)

    218.7     196.8     125.6     115.9  
 

Long-term debt

    915.2     347.2     347.1     347.1  
 

Shareholders' equity of Assured Guaranty Ltd. and subsidiaries

    2,801.6     1,926.2     1,666.6     1,650.8  
 

Book value attributable to Assured per share

  $ 17.89   $ 21.18   $ 20.85   $ 24.44  
                   

Other Financial Information (GAAP Basis):

                         
 

Net debt service outstanding (end of period)

  $ 967,440   $ 348,816   $ 302,413   $ 180,174  
 

Gross debt service outstanding (end of period)

    1,108,750     354,858     307,657     181,503  
 

Net par outstanding (end of period)

    646,630     222,722     200,279     132,296  
 

Gross par outstanding (end of period)

    735,636     227,164     204,809     133,303  
                   

Other Financial Information (Statutory Basis):

                         
 

Net debt service outstanding (end of period)

  $ 950,565   $ 348,816   $ 302,413   $ 180,174  
 

Gross debt service outstanding (end of period)

    1,087,393     354,858     307,657     181,503  
 

Net par outstanding (end of period)

    631,742     222,722     200,279     132,296  
 

Gross par outstanding (end of period)

    716,752     227,164     204,809     133,303  
 

Consolidated qualified statutory capital

    4,464     2,310     2,079     1,658  
 

Consolidated policyholders' surplus and reserves

    9,921     3,652     3,040     2,374  
 

Ratios:

                         
   

Par insured to statutory capital

    142:1     96:1     96:1     80:1  
   

Capital ratio(3)

    213:1     151:1     145:1     109:1  
   

Financial resources ratio(4)

    75:1     70:1     68:1     53:1  
 

Gross debt service written:

                         
 

Public finance—U.S. 

  $ 71,643   $ 68,265   $ 66,190   $ 13,260  
 

Public finance—non-U.S. 

    888     3,350     11,849     10,531  
 

Structured finance—U.S. 

    1,233     13,972     42,414     28,902  
 

Structured finance—non-U.S. 

        5,490     13,122     7,448  
                   
 

Total gross debt service written

  $ 73,764   $ 91,078   $ 133,575   $ 60,141  
                   
 

Net debt service written

    73,676     89,871     129,872     59,775  
 

Net par written

    41,879     55,418     84,686     50,541  
 

Gross par written

    41,934     56,140     88,117     50,892  

(1)
The Company adopted ASC 944-20 effective January 1, 2009.

(2)
Effective January 1, 2009, the Company adopted ASC 260-10, which clarifies that share-based payment awards that entitle their holders to receive nonforfeitable dividends or dividend equivalents before vesting should be

50



ASSURED GUARANTY LTD.

SUMMARY FINANCIAL AND STATISTICAL DATA (Continued)

(dollars in millions, except per share amounts)

(3)
The capital ratio is calculated by dividing net debt service outstanding by qualified statutory capital.

(4)
The financial resources ratio is calculated by dividing net debt service outstanding by total claims paying resources.

Note: Please refer to endnotes for explanation of non-GAAP financial measures [operating income (b), and expense ratio (f).

51



Glossary

        Below are the brief descriptions of selected types of U.S. public finance, non-U.S. public finance, U.S. structured finance and non-U.S. structured finance obligations that the Company insures and reinsures. For a more complete description, please refer to Assured Guaranty Ltd.'s 10-K report.

        Other public finance: primarily includes government insured student loans, government-sponsored project finance and structured municipal which includes excess of loss reinsurance on portfolios of municipal credits.

        Pooled corporate obligations are structured financings backed by a pool of debt obligations. These financings are typically structured in multiple tranches (layers) from equity (first loss) through super senior (high excess). Losses on defaulted pool assets are allocated successively first to the equity tranche then to higher rated tranches.

        Residential mortgage-backed and home equity: includes individual and repackaged securities backed by either prime, Alt-A, or subprime first and second lien mortgages. Alt-A Option ARMs: includes transactions where 66% or more of the collateral is comprised of mortgage loans that have the potential to negatively amortize. Alt-A First Lien: includes all transactions, other than Alt-A Option ARM transactions, where more than 50% of the collateral is comprised of mortgage loans that were originated with less than full documentation.

        Consumer receivables: principally includes auto loan receivables and credit card receivables.

        Commercial mortgage-backed securities: includes individual and repackaged securities backed by commercial mortgage-backed securities.

        Commercial receivables: includes equipment loans or leases, fleet auto financings and franchise loans.

        Structured credit: includes whole business securitizations and intellectual property securitizations. Whole business securitizations are obligations backed by revenue-producing assets sold to a limited-purpose company by an operating company, including franchise agreements, lease agreements, intellectual property and real property.

        Other structured finance: includes, manufactured housing, collateralized debt obligations of asset-backed securities and other securitizations not included in other asset classes.

52


Endnotes related to non-GAAP financial measures discussed in the financial supplement:

        This Financial Supplement references financial measures that are not financial measures that are in accordance with U.S. generally accepted accounting principles ("non-GAAP financial measures") which management uses in order to assist analysts and investors in evaluating Assured Guaranty Ltd.'s financial results. These non-GAAP financial measures are defined below. In each case, the most directly comparable GAAP financial measure, if available, is presented and a reconciliation of the non-GAAP financial measure and GAAP financial measure is provided. This presentation is consistent with how Assured Guaranty's management, analysts and investors evaluate Assured Guaranty Ltd.'s financial results and is comparable to estimates published by analysts in their research reports on Assured Guaranty Ltd.

        (a)    PVP or present value of new business:    PVP is a non-GAAP financial measure defined as gross upfront and installment premiums received and the present value of gross estimated future installment premiums, on insurance and credit derivative contracts written in the current period, discounted at 6% for September 30, 2009 and 6% for December 31, 2008. Management believes that PVP is a useful measure for management, investors and analysts because it permits the evaluation of the value of new business production for Assured Guaranty by taking into account the value of estimated future installment premiums on all new contracts underwritten in a reporting period, whether in insurance or credit derivative contract form, which GAAP gross premiums written and net credit derivative premiums received and receivable portion of net realized gains and other settlement on credit derivatives ("Credit Derivative Revenues") do not adequately measure. For purposes of the PVP calculation, management discounts estimated future installment premiums on insurance contracts at the approximate taxable equivalent yield per year on the Company's general investment portfolio, while under ASC 944-20, "Financial Services—Insurance," these amounts are discounted at a risk free rate. Additionally, under ASC 944-20 management records future installment premiums on financial guaranty insurance contracts covering non-homogeneous pools of assets based on the contractual term of the transaction, whereas for PVP purposes, management records an estimate of the future installment premiums the Company expects to receive, which may be a shorter period of time than the contractual term of the transaction. Actual future net earned or written premiums and Credit Derivative Revenues may differ from PVP due to factors including, but not limited to, prepayments, amortizations, refundings, contract terminations or defaults that may or may not result from changes in market interest rates, foreign exchange rates, refinancing or refundings, prepayment speeds, policy changes or terminations, credit defaults or other factors that management cannot control or predict. PVP should not be viewed as a substitute for gross written premiums determined in accordance with GAAP.

        Operating income:    Operating income is a non-GAAP financial measure defined as net income (loss) attributable to Assured Guaranty Ltd. (which excludes noncontrolling interest in consolidated variable interest entities) adjusted for the following:

        Management believes that operating income is a useful measure for management, investors and analysts because the presentation of operating income enhances the understanding of the Company's results of operations by highlighting the underlying profitability of its business. Realized gains (losses) on investments, non-credit impairment unrealized gains (losses) on credit derivatives, and unrealized

53



gains (losses) on the Company's committed capital securities are excluded because the these gains (losses) are heavily influenced by, and fluctuate, in part, according to changes in market interest rates, credit spreads and other factors that management cannot control or predict. This measure should not be viewed as a substitute for net income (loss) determined in accordance with GAAP.

        (c)    Operating shareholders' equity ("Operating Shareholders' Equity"):    Operating shareholders' equity is a non-GAAP financial measure calculated as shareholders' equity attributable to Assured Guaranty Ltd. (which excludes noncontrolling interest in consolidated variable interest entities) reported under accounting principles generally accepted in the United States of America (GAAP), adjusted for the following fair value adjustments deemed to be unrelated to credit impairment. The specific adjustments are:

        Management believes that operating shareholders' equity is a useful measure for management, investors and analysts because the presentation of operating ROE enhances the understanding of the Company's shareholders' equity excluding unrealized gains (losses) on investments, non-credit impairment unrealized gains (losses) on credit derivatives, and unrealized gains (losses) on the Company's committed capital securities, which are heavily influenced by, and fluctuate, in part, according to changes in market interest rates, credit spreads and other factors that management cannot control or predict. This measure should not be viewed as a substitute for shareholders' equity attributable to Assured Guaranty Ltd. determined in accordance with GAAP.

        Operating return on equity ("Operating ROE"):    Operating ROE represents operating income for the specified period divided by the average of operating shareholders' equity at the beginning and the end of the specified period. Management believes that Operating ROE is a useful measure for management, investors and analysts because the presentation of Operating ROE enhance the understanding of the Company's return on shareholders' equity by highlighting the underlying profitability relative to shareholders' equity excluding the effect of unrealized gains and losses on the Company's investment portfolio, credit derivatives and committed capital securities for both net income and shareholders' equity. Realized gains (losses) on investments, non-credit impairment unrealized gains (losses) on credit derivatives, and unrealized gains (losses) on the Company's committed capital securities are excluded because the these gains (losses) are heavily influenced by, and fluctuate, in part, according to changes in market interest rates, credit spreads and other factors that management cannot control or predict. This measure should not be viewed as substitutes for ROE determined in accordance with GAAP.

        (d)    Adjusted Book Value:    Subsequent to the adoption of ASC 944-20 on January 1, 2009 and the acquisition of Financial Security Assurance Holdings (FSAH) on July 1, 2009, adjusted book value, which is a non-GAAP financial measure, is calculated as shareholders' equity attributable to Assured Guaranty Ltd. (which excludes noncontrolling interest in consolidated subsidiaries) less after-tax fair value adjustments deemed to be non-economic, plus after-tax unearned premium reserves net of prepaid reinsurance and deferred acquisition costs, plus the after-tax present value of estimated future

54



revenues on contracts written in credit derivative contract form. The specific adjustments to shareholders' equity attributable to Assured Guaranty Ltd. are:

        Management believes that adjusted book value is a useful measure for management, equity analysts and investors because the calculation of adjusted book value permits an evaluation of the net present value of the Company's in force premiums and shareholders' equity. The premiums described above will be earned in future periods, but may differ materially from the estimated amounts used in determining current adjusted book value due to changes in market interest rates, foreign exchange rates, refinancing or refunding activity, prepayment speeds, policy changes or terminations, credit defaults and other factors that management cannot control or predict. This measure should not be viewed as a substitute for shareholders' equity attributable to Assured Guaranty Ltd. determined in accordance with GAAP.

        (e)    Net present value of estimated future revenue on credit derivatives in force:    Net present value of estimated installment premiums on credit derivatives in force is a non-GAAP financial measure defined as the present value of estimated future revenue from our credit derivative in-force books of business, net of reinsurance and discounted at 6% for September 30, 2009 and 6% for December 31, 2008. Management believes that net present value of estimated future revenue in force is a useful measure for management, investors and analysts because it permits an evaluation of the value of future estimated credit derivative revenue. Estimated future premiums may change from period to period due to changes in par outstanding, maturity, or other factors that management cannot control or predict that result from market interest rates, foreign exchange rates, refinancing or refunding activity, prepayment speeds, policy changes or terminations, credit defaults, or other factors. There is no comparable GAAP financial measure.

        (f)    Expense Ratio:    Expense ratio is calculated by dividing the sum of ceding commissions expense (income), profit commission expense, acquisition costs and operating expenses by net earned premiums plus net credit derivative premiums earned included in realized gains and other settlements on credit derivatives.

55


GRAPHIC

Assured Guaranty Ltd.
30 Woodbourne Avenue
Hamilton HM 08
Bermuda
(441) 279-5705
www.assuredguaranty.com

Contacts:

Equity Investors:
Sabra Purtill
Managing Director, Investor Relations
(212) 408-6044
spurtill@assuredguaranty.com

Ross Aron
Associate, Investor Relations
(212) 261-5509
raron@assuredguaranty.com

Fixed Income Investors:
Robert Tucker
Managing Director, Fixed Income Investor Relations
(212) 339-0861
rtucker@assuredguaranty.com

Michael Walker
Director, Fixed Income Investor Relations
(212) 261-5575
mwalker@assuredguaranty.com

Media:

Betsy Castenir
Managing Director, Corporate Communications
(212) 339-3424
bcastenir@assuredguaranty.com

Ashweeta Durani
Vice President, Corporate Communications
(212) 408-6042
adurani@assuredguaranty.com




QuickLinks

ASSURED GUARANTY LTD. FINANCIAL SUPPLEMENT THIRD QUARTER ENDED SEPTEMBER 30, 2009
TABLE OF CONTENTS
ASSURED GUARANTY LTD. SELECTED FINANCIAL HIGHLIGHTS (dollars in millions, except per share amounts)
ASSURED GUARANTY LTD. CONSOLIDATED INCOME STATEMENTS (dollars and shares in millions, except per share amounts)
ASSURED GUARANTY LTD. CONSOLIDATED BALANCE SHEETS (dollars in millions)
ASSURED GUARANTY LTD. ADJUSTED BOOK VALUE (dollars in millions, except per share amounts)
ASSURED GUARANTY LTD. CONSOLIDATED CAPITAL AND CLAIMS PAYING RESOURCES (dollars in millions)
ASSURED GUARANTY LTD. NEW BUSINESS PRODUCTION (dollars in millions)
ASSURED GUARANTY LTD. SEGMENT CONSOLIDATION (dollars in millions)
ASSURED GUARANTY LTD. FINANCIAL GUARANTY DIRECT SEGMENT (dollars in millions)
ASSURED GUARANTY LTD. FINANCIAL GUARANTY REINSURANCE SEGMENT (dollars in millions)
ASSURED GUARANTY LTD. INVESTMENT PORTFOLIO As of September 30, 2009 (dollars in millions)
ASSURED GUARANTY LTD. ESTIMATED NET EXPOSURE AMORTIZATION(1) (dollars in millions)
ASSURED GUARANTY LTD. ESTIMATED NET UNEARNED PREMIUM AMORTIZATION AND ESTIMATED NET FUTURE INSTALLMENT PREMIUMS (dollars in millions)
ASSURED GUARANTY LTD. FINANCIAL GUARANTY PROFILE As of September 30, 2009 (dollars in millions)
ASSURED GUARANTY LTD. POOLED CORPORATE OBLIGATIONS PROFILE (dollars in millions)
ASSURED GUARANTY LTD. CONSOLIDATED U.S. RESIDENTIAL MORTGAGE-BACKED SECURITIES ("RMBS") PROFILE (dollars in millions)
ASSURED GUARANTY LTD. FINANCIAL GUARANTY DIRECT U.S. RMBS PROFILE (dollars in millions)
ASSURED GUARANTY LTD. FINANCIAL GUARANTY DIRECT U.S. CMBS PROFILE (dollars in millions)
ASSURED GUARANTY LTD. CONSUMER RECEIVABLES PROFILE (dollars in millions)
ASSURED GUARANTY LTD. FINANCIAL GUARANTY DIRECT CREDIT DERIVATIVE EXPOSURE PROFILE (dollars in millions)
ASSURED GUARANTY LTD. UNREALIZED GAINS (LOSSES) ON CREDIT DERIVATIVES
ASSURED GUARANTY LTD. BELOW INVESTMENT GRADE EXPOSURES As of September 30, 2009 (dollars in millions)
ASSURED GUARANTY LTD. LARGEST EXPOSURES BY SECTOR As of September 30, 2009 (dollars in millions)
ASSURED GUARANTY LTD. SURVEILLANCE CATEGORIES (dollars in millions)
ASSURED GUARANTY LTD. LOSS AND LOSS ADJUSTMENT EXPENSE ("LAE") RESERVES BY SEGMENT/TYPE (dollars in millions)
ASSURED GUARANTY LTD. LOSS AND LOSS ADJUSTMENT EXPENSES As of September 30, 2009 (dollars in millions)
ASSURED GUARANTY LTD. SUMMARY FINANCIAL AND STATISTICAL DATA (dollars in millions, except per share amounts)
Glossary