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8-K - 8-K - ASSURED GUARANTY LTD | a2195576z8-k.htm |
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ASSURED GUARANTY LTD. FINANCIAL SUPPLEMENT
THIRD QUARTER ENDED SEPTEMBER 30, 2009
|
Page | |
---|---|---|
Selected Financial Highlights |
1 | |
Consolidated Income Statements |
2 | |
Consolidated Balance Sheets |
3 | |
Adjusted Book Value |
4 | |
Consolidated Capital and Claims Paying Resources |
5 | |
New Business Production |
6 | |
Segment Consolidation |
7-10 | |
Financial Guaranty Direct Segment |
11-12 | |
Financial Guaranty Reinsurance Segment |
13-14 | |
Investment Portfolio |
15 | |
Estimated Net Exposure Amortization |
16 | |
Estimated Net Unearned Premium Amortization and Estimated Net Future Installment Premiums |
17 | |
Financial Guaranty Profile |
18-21 | |
Pooled Corporate Obligations Profile |
22-23 | |
Consolidated U.S. Residential Mortgage-Backed Securities Profile |
24-27 | |
Financial Guaranty Direct U.S. RMBS Profile |
28-32 | |
Financial Guaranty Direct U.S. CMBS Profile |
33 | |
Consumer Receivables Profile |
34-35 | |
Financial Guaranty Direct Credit Derivative Exposures Profile |
36-37 | |
Unrealized Gains (Losses) on Credit Derivatives |
38 | |
Below Investment Grade Exposures |
39-42 | |
Largest Exposures by Sector |
43-46 | |
Surveillance Categories |
47 | |
Loss and LAE Reserves |
48 | |
Loss and Loss Adjustment Expenses |
49 | |
Summary Financial and Statistical Data |
50-51 | |
Glossary |
52 | |
Endnotes Related to Non-GAAP Financial Measures |
53 |
This supplement should be read in conjunction with documents filed by Assured Guaranty Ltd. ("AGL" and together with its subsidiaries, "Assured Guaranty" or the "Company") with the Securities and Exchange Commission ("SEC"), including Assured Guaranty's Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2008, Assured Guaranty's Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q for the three-month period ended March 31, 2009, Assured Guaranty's Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q for the three- and six month period ended June 30, 2009 and, when filed with the SEC, Assured's Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q for the three and nine month period ended September 30, 2009.
September 30, 2009 amounts in this Financial Supplement include the consolidated results of Financial Security Assurance Holdings Ltd. ("FSAH"), which Assured Guaranty acquired on July 1, 2009.
Some amounts in this Financial Supplement may not add due to rounding.
Cautionary Statement Regarding Forward-Looking Statements:
Any forward-looking statements made in this supplement reflect the current views of Assured Guaranty with respect to future events and financial performance and are made pursuant to the safe harbor provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Such statements involve risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from those set forth in these statements. For example, the Company's forward looking statements could be affected by many events. These events include (1) rating agency action, including a ratings downgrade of the Company or its affiliates and/or of transactions insured by the Company or its affiliates, both of which have occurred in the past; (2) developments in the world's financial and capital markets that adversely affect issuers' payment rates, the Company's loss experience, its ability to cede exposure to reinsurers, its access to capital, its unrealized (losses) gains on derivative financial instruments or its investment returns; (3) changes in the credit markets, segments thereof or general economic conditions; (4) more severe or frequent losses affecting the adequacy of the Company's loss reserves; (5) the impact of market volatility on the mark-to-market of the Company's contracts written in credit default swap form; (6) reduction in the amount of reinsurance facultative cessions or portfolio opportunities available to the Company; (7) decreased demand or increased competition; (8) changes in applicable accounting policies or practices; (9) changes in applicable laws or regulation, including insurance and tax laws; (10) other governmental actions; (11) difficulties with the execution of the Company's business strategy; (12) contract cancellations; (13) the Company's dependence on customers; (14) loss of key personnel; (15) adverse technological developments; (16) the effects of mergers, acquisitions and divestitures; (17) natural or man-made catastrophes; (18) other risks and uncertainties that have not been identified at this time; (19) management's response to these factors; and (20) other risk factors identified in Assured's filings with the SEC. Readers are cautioned not to place undue reliance on these forward looking statements, which speak only as of the dates on which they are made. The Company undertakes no obligation to publicly update or revise any forward looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise.
ASSURED GUARANTY LTD.
SELECTED FINANCIAL HIGHLIGHTS
(dollars in millions, except per share amounts)
|
Quarter Ended September 30, |
|
Nine Months Ended September 30, |
|
||||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
% Change versus 3Q-08 |
% Change versus YTD 2008 |
||||||||||||||||||
|
2009 | 2008 | 2009 | 2008 | ||||||||||||||||
Operating income reconciliation: |
||||||||||||||||||||
Operating income(b) |
$ | 70.1 | $ | 26.0 | 170 | % | $ | 160.9 | $ | 71.0 | 127 | % | ||||||||
Plus: Realized gains (losses) on investments, after tax |
(6.0 | ) | (17.1 | ) | (65 | )% | (30.2 | ) | (15.9 | ) | 90 | % | ||||||||
Plus: Non-credit impairment unrealized gains (losses) on credit derivatives, after tax |
(41.3 | ) | (76.7 | ) | (46 | )% | (165.8 | ) | 241.8 | NM | ||||||||||
Plus: Unrealized gains (losses) on committed capital securities, after tax |
(34.5 | ) | 4.5 | NM | (61.1 | ) | 15.8 | NM | ||||||||||||
Plus: Goodwill and settlement of intercompany relationship, net |
(23.3 | ) | | NM | (23.3 | ) | | NM | ||||||||||||
Net income (loss) attributable to Assured Guaranty Ltd. |
$ | (35.0 | ) | $ | (63.3 | ) | (45 | )% | $ | (119.5 | ) | $ | 312.7 | (138 | )% | |||||
Return on equity ("ROE") calculations: |
||||||||||||||||||||
ROE, excluding unrealized gain (loss) on investment portfolio |
(5.7 | )% | (11.4 | )% | (7.0 | )% | 21.9 | % | ||||||||||||
Operating ROE(c) |
8.8 | % | 4.4 | % | 7.4 | % | 4.3 | % | ||||||||||||
Earnings per diluted share:(1) |
||||||||||||||||||||
Operating income(b) |
$ | 0.44 | $ | 0.28 | 57 | % | $ | 1.39 | $ | 0.81 | 72 | % | ||||||||
Plus: Realized gains (losses) on investments, after tax |
(0.04 | ) | (0.19 | ) | (79 | )% | (0.27 | ) | (0.18 | ) | 50 | % | ||||||||
Plus: Non-credit impairment unrealized gains (losses) on credit derivatives, after tax |
(0.26 | ) | (0.84 | ) | (69 | )% | (1.46 | ) | 2.76 | NM | ||||||||||
Plus: Unrealized gains (losses) on committed capital securities, after tax |
(0.22 | ) | 0.05 | NM | (0.54 | ) | 0.18 | NM | ||||||||||||
Plus: Goodwill and settlement of intercompany relationship, net |
(0.15 | ) | | NM | (0.21 | ) | | NM | ||||||||||||
Net income (loss) attributable to Assured Guaranty Ltd.(2) |
$ | (0.22 | ) | $ | (0.69 | ) | (68 | )% | $ | (1.05 | ) | $ | 3.54 | (130 | )% | |||||
Other information: |
||||||||||||||||||||
Net debt service outstanding |
$ | 967,440 | $ | 355,712 | 172 | % | ||||||||||||||
Net par outstanding |
646,630 | 227,342 | 184 | % | ||||||||||||||||
Claims-paying resources |
12,643 | 5,082 | 149 | % | ||||||||||||||||
Gross par written |
9,097 | 10,776 | (16 | )% | $ | 41,934 | $ | 48,859 | (14 | )% |
- (1)
- Effective
January 1, 2009, the Company adopted FASB Accounting Standards Codification ("ASC") 260-10, "Earnings Per Share" (FSP
EITF 03-6-1, "Determining Whether Instruments Granted in Share-Based Payment Transactions Are Participating Securities"), which clarifies that share-based payment awards
that entitle their holders to receive nonforfeitable dividends or dividend equivalents before vesting should be considered participating securities and shall be included in the calculation of basic
and diluted net income (loss) per share. Upon retrospective adoption of ASC 260-10, Assured decreased previously reported diluted net loss per share by $0.01 for Q3 2008 and decreased
previously reported diluted net income per share by $0.01 for nine months 2008. Operating income, a non-GAAP financial measure, for both periods is positive, therefore the per diluted
share calculation ignores the effect of ASC 260-10 and includes the effect of dilutive securities.
- (2)
- Total may not add due to differences in calculating GAAP and non-GAAP per diluted share amounts.
Note: Please refer to endnotes for explanation of non-GAAP financial measures [operating income (b) and operating ROE (c)].
NM = Not meaningful
1
ASSURED GUARANTY LTD.
CONSOLIDATED INCOME STATEMENTS
(dollars and shares in millions, except per share amounts)
|
Quarter Ended September 30, |
|
Nine Months Ended September 30, |
|
||||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
% Change versus 3Q-08 |
% Change versus YTD 2008 |
||||||||||||||||||
|
2009 | 2008 | 2009 | 2008 | ||||||||||||||||
Revenues |
||||||||||||||||||||
Net earned premiums(1) |
$ | 330.0 | $ | 85.5 | 286 | % | $ | 557.1 | $ | 184.0 | 203 | % | ||||||||
Net investment income |
84.7 | 43.4 | 95 | % | 171.6 | 120.2 | 43 | % | ||||||||||||
Realized gains on credit derivatives(2) |
57.3 | 30.0 | 91 | % | 114.8 | 89.0 | 29 | % | ||||||||||||
Incurred losses on credit derivatives |
(142.2 | ) | (10.1 | ) | NM | (178.5 | ) | (18.5 | ) | NM | ||||||||||
Other income |
58.7 | 0.3 | NM | 60.1 | 0.4 | NM | ||||||||||||||
Total revenues |
388.5 | 149.1 | 161 | % | 725.1 | 375.1 | 93 | % | ||||||||||||
Expenses |
||||||||||||||||||||
Loss and loss adjustment expenses(1) |
133.3 | 82.5 | 62 | % | 251.1 | 175.8 | 43 | % | ||||||||||||
Profit commission expense |
0.2 | (1.4 | ) | NM | 2.5 | 0.8 | 213 | % | ||||||||||||
Amortization of deferred acquisition costs(1) |
1.3 | 19.3 | (93 | )% | 41.3 | 43.0 | (4 | )% | ||||||||||||
Other operating expenses |
66.2 | 21.6 | 206 | % | 116.5 | 69.9 | 67 | % | ||||||||||||
FSAH acquisition-related expenses |
51.3 | | NM | 80.2 | | NM | ||||||||||||||
Interest and related expenses |
27.7 | 7.3 | 279 | % | 43.3 | 21.4 | 102 | % | ||||||||||||
Total expenses |
280.0 | 129.3 | 117 | % | 534.9 | 310.9 | 72 | % | ||||||||||||
Operating income before provision (benefit) for income taxes |
108.5 | 19.8 | 448 | % | 190.2 | 64.2 | 196 | % | ||||||||||||
Total provision (benefit) for income taxes |
38.4 | (6.2 | ) | NM | 29.3 | (6.8 | ) | NM | ||||||||||||
Operating income(b) |
70.1 | 26.0 | 170 | % | 160.9 | 71.0 | 127 | % | ||||||||||||
Plus: Realized gains (losses) on investments, after tax |
(6.0 |
) |
(17.1 |
) |
(65 |
)% |
(30.2 |
) |
(15.9 |
) |
90 |
% |
||||||||
Plus: Non-credit impairment unrealized gains (losses) on credit derivatives, after tax |
(41.3 | ) | (76.7 | ) | (46 | )% | (165.8 | ) | 241.8 | NM | ||||||||||
Plus: Unrealized gains (losses) on committed capital securities, after tax |
(34.5 | ) | 4.5 | NM | (61.1 | ) | 15.8 | NM | ||||||||||||
Plus: Goodwill and settlement of intercompany relationship, net |
(23.3 | ) | | NM | (23.3 | ) | | NM | ||||||||||||
Net income (loss) attributable to Assured Guaranty Ltd. |
$ | (35.0 | ) | $ | (63.3 | ) | (45 | )% | $ | (119.5 | ) | $ | 312.7 | (138 | )% | |||||
Effect of refundings and accelerations, net |
||||||||||||||||||||
Earned premiums from refundings and accelerations, net |
$ | 17.4 | $ | 31.7 | (45 | )% | $ | 127.7 | $ | 36.2 | 253 | % | ||||||||
Operating income effect |
$ | 9.9 | $ | 20.4 | (51 | )% | $ | 87.5 | $ | 22.7 | 285 | % | ||||||||
Operating income per diluted share effect |
$ | 0.06 | $ | 0.22 | (73 | )% | $ | 0.76 | $ | 0.26 | 192 | % | ||||||||
Weighted average shares outstanding |
||||||||||||||||||||
Basic shares outstandingGAAP(3) (for net income (loss) per share calculation) |
156.3 | 90.9 | 72 | % | 113.6 | 87.0 | 31 | % | ||||||||||||
Diluted shares outstandingGAAP(3) (for net income (loss) per share calculation) |
156.3 | 90.9 | 72 | % | 113.6 | 87.5 | 30 | % | ||||||||||||
Diluted shares outstandingnon-GAAP(3) (for operating income per share calculation) |
160.1 | 91.5 | 75 | % | 115.4 | 88.1 | 31 | % | ||||||||||||
Shares outstanding at the end of period |
156.6 | 90.9 | 72 | % |
- (1)
- The
Company adopted ASC 944-20, "Financial ServicesInsurance" (FAS No. 163, "Accounting for Financial Guarantee Insurance
Contracts") effective January 1, 2009.
- (2)
- Includes
revenue earned on credit derivatives.
- (3)
- Effective January 1, 2009, the Company adopted ASC 260-10, which clarifies that share-based payment awards that entitle their holders to receive nonforfeitable dividends or dividend equivalents before vesting should be considered participating securities and shall be included in the calculation of basic and diluted net income (loss) per share. Upon retrospective adoption of ASC 260-10, Assured revised basic and diluted shares outstanding under GAAP. Operating income, a non-GAAP financial measure, for both periods is positive, therefore the diluted shares outstanding under non-GAAP ignores the effect of ASC 260-10 and includes the effect of dilutive securities.
Note: Please refer to endnotes for explanation of non-GAAP financial measures [operating income (b)].
NM = Not meaningful
2
ASSURED GUARANTY LTD.
CONSOLIDATED BALANCE SHEETS
(dollars in millions)
|
As of : | ||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
September 30, 2009 | December 31, 2008 | |||||||
Assets |
|||||||||
Investment portfolio, available-for-sale: |
|||||||||
Fixed maturity securities, at fair value |
$ | 8,448.1 | $ | 3,154.1 | |||||
Short-term investments |
1,492.9 | 477.2 | |||||||
Total investment portfolio |
9,941.0 | 3,631.3 | |||||||
Assets acquired in refinancing transactions |
159.2 |
|
|||||||
Cash |
260.5 | 12.3 | |||||||
Premiums receivable, net(1) |
1,504.0 | 15.7 | |||||||
Ceded unearned premium reserve(1) |
1,163.1 | 18.9 | |||||||
Deferred acquisition costs(1) |
243.6 | 288.6 | |||||||
Reinsurance recoverable on paid and unpaid losses(1) |
5.8 | 6.5 | |||||||
Credit derivative assets |
462.3 | 147.0 | |||||||
Committed capital securities, at fair value |
38.5 | 51.1 | |||||||
Deferred tax asset, net(1) |
1,093.6 | 129.1 | |||||||
Goodwill |
| 85.4 | |||||||
Salvage recoverable(1) |
184.4 | 80.2 | |||||||
Financial guaranty variable interest entities' assets |
846.9 | | |||||||
Other assets |
299.7 | 89.6 | |||||||
Total assets |
$ | 16,202.6 | $ | 4,555.7 | |||||
Liabilities and shareholders' equity |
|||||||||
Liabilities |
|||||||||
Unearned premium reserves(1) |
$ | 8,632.7 | $ | 1,233.7 | |||||
Loss and loss adjustment expense reserve(1) |
218.7 | 196.8 | |||||||
Long-term debt |
915.2 | 347.2 | |||||||
Note payable to related party |
155.8 | | |||||||
Credit derivative liabilities |
2,100.5 | 733.8 | |||||||
Funds held under reinsurance contracts |
30.2 | 30.7 | |||||||
Reinsurance balances payable, net(1) |
179.3 | 18.0 | |||||||
Financial guaranty variable interest entities' liabilities |
851.4 | | |||||||
Other liabilities |
321.7 | 69.4 | |||||||
Total liabilities |
13,405.5 | 2,629.5 | |||||||
Shareholders' equity |
|||||||||
Common stock |
1.6 | 0.9 | |||||||
Additional paid-in capital |
2,010.8 | 1,284.4 | |||||||
Retained earnings(1)(2) |
580.2 | 638.1 | |||||||
Accumulated other comprehensive income (loss)(2) |
209.0 | 2.9 | |||||||
Total shareholders' equity attributable to Assured Guaranty Ltd. |
2,801.6 | 1,926.2 | |||||||
Noncontrolling interest in consolidated VIEs |
(4.5 | ) | | ||||||
Total shareholders' equity |
2,797.1 | 1,926.2 | |||||||
Total liabilities and shareholders' equity |
$ | 16,202.6 | $ | 4,555.7 | |||||
- (1)
- The
Company adopted ASC 944-20 effective January 1, 2009.
- (2)
- The Company adopted ASC 320-10-65-1, "InvestmentsDebt and Equity Securities" (FSP No. FAS 115-2 and FAS 124-2, "Recognition and Presentation of Other-Than-Temporary Impairments") effective April 1, 2009. The adoption of this accounting rule increased retained earnings and decreased accumulated other comprehensive income (loss) by $57.7 million.
3
ASSURED GUARANTY LTD.
ADJUSTED BOOK VALUE
(dollars in millions, except per share amounts)
|
As of : | |
|||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
September 30, 2009 |
December 31, 2008 |
% Change versus 12/31/2008 |
||||||||
Adjusted book value reconciliation: |
|||||||||||
Book value attributable to Assured Guaranty Ltd. |
$ | 2,801.6 | $ | 1,926.2 | 45 | % | |||||
Less: Non-credit impairment unrealized gains (losses) on credit derivatives, after tax |
(905.4 | ) | (422.7 | ) | 114 | % | |||||
Less: Unrealized gains (losses) on committed capital securities, after tax |
25.0 | 33.2 | (25 | )% | |||||||
Less: Unrealized gain (loss) on investment portfolio excluding foreign exchange effect |
207.5 | (3.4 | ) | NM | |||||||
Operating shareholders' equity |
$ | 3,474.5 | $ | 2,319.1 | 50 | % | |||||
Less: Deferred acquisition costs ("DAC"), after tax |
238.9 | 260.6 | (8 | )% | |||||||
Plus: Net present value of estimated future credit derivative revenue, after tax(e) |
562.1 | 708.3 | (21 | )% | |||||||
Plus: Unearned premium reserve on financial guaranty contracts in excess of expected loss, after tax(2) |
4,713.8 | 1,033.4 | 356 | % | |||||||
Plus: Unearned revenue on credit derivatives, after tax(3) |
36.9 | 17.6 | 110 | % | |||||||
Adjusted book value(d) |
$ | 8,548.4 | $ | 3,817.8 | 124 | % | |||||
Adjusted book value per share reconciliation: |
|||||||||||
Book value attributable to Assured Guaranty Ltd. |
$ | 17.89 | $ | 21.18 | (16 | )% | |||||
Less: Non-credit impairment unrealized gains (losses) on credit derivatives, after tax |
(5.78 | ) | (4.65 | ) | 24 | % | |||||
Less: Unrealized gains (losses) on committed capital securities, after tax |
0.16 | 0.36 | (56 | )% | |||||||
Less: Unrealized gain (loss) on investment portfolio excluding foreign exchange effect |
1.33 | (0.04 | ) | NM | |||||||
Operating shareholders' equity per share |
$ | 22.19 | $ | 25.50 | (13 | )% | |||||
Less: DAC, after tax |
1.53 | 2.87 | (47 | )% | |||||||
Plus: Net present value of estimated future credit derivative revenue, after tax(e) |
3.59 | 7.79 | (54 | )% | |||||||
Plus: Unearned premium reserve on financial guaranty contracts in excess of expected loss, after tax(2) |
30.10 | 11.36 | 165 | % | |||||||
Plus: Unearned revenue on credit derivatives, after tax(3) |
0.24 | 0.19 | 26 | % | |||||||
Adjusted book value(d) |
$ | 54.59 | $ | 41.97 | 30 | % | |||||
- (1)
- The
Company adopted ASC 944-20 effective January 1, 2009. The adoption of this accounting rule had an effect of $19.4 million on
January 1, 2009 book value.
- (2)
- Unearned
premium reserve (UPR) less ceded unearned premiums, after tax.
- (3)
- Unearned revenue less ceded unearned premiums on credit derivatives, after tax.
Note: Please refer to endnotes for explanation of non-GAAP financial measures [adjusted book value (d) and net present value of estimated future installment premiums in force (e)].
NM = Not meaningful
4
ASSURED GUARANTY LTD.
CONSOLIDATED CAPITAL AND CLAIMS PAYING RESOURCES
(dollars in millions)
|
As of September 30, 2009 | ||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Assured Guaranty Corp. |
Assured Guaranty Re Ltd.(1) |
Assured Guaranty Municipal Corp. |
Consolidated | |||||||||||
Claims paying resources |
|||||||||||||||
Policyholders' surplus |
$ | 179 | $ | 1,147 | $ | 1,140 | $ | 2,466 | |||||||
Contingency reserve |
772 | | 1,226 | 1,998 | |||||||||||
Qualified statutory capital |
951 | 1,147 | 2,366 | 4,464 | |||||||||||
Unearned premium reserve |
838 | 857 | 2,380 | 4,075 | |||||||||||
Loss and loss adjustment expense reserves |
209 | 68 | 1,105 | 1,382 | |||||||||||
Total policyholders' surplus and reserves |
1,998 | 2,072 | 5,851 | 9,921 | |||||||||||
Present value of installment premium(e)(2) |
639 | 360 | 824 | 1,823 | |||||||||||
Standby line of credit/stop loss |
200 | 200 | 498 | 898 | |||||||||||
Total claims paying resources |
$ | 2,837 | $ | 2,632 | $ | 7,173 | $ | 12,642 | |||||||
Net par insured outstanding(3) |
$ | 128,854 | $ | 116,295 | $ | 388,950 | $ | 631,742 | |||||||
Net debt service outstanding(3) |
$ | 183,396 | $ | 190,235 | $ | 581,685 | $ | 950,565 | |||||||
Ratios: |
|||||||||||||||
Net par insured to statutory capital |
135:1 | 101:1 | 164:1 | 142:1 | |||||||||||
Capital ratio(4) |
193:1 | 166:1 | 246:1 | 213:1 | |||||||||||
Financial resources ratio(5) |
65:1 | 72:1 | 81:1 | 75:1 |
- (1)
- Assured
Guaranty Re Ltd. ("AG Re") numbers are the Company's estimate of U.S. statutory as these Companies file Bermuda statutory financial
statements.
- (2)
- Includes
financial guaranty and credit derivatives.
- (3)
- Statutory
basis.
- (4)
- The
capital ratio is calculated by dividing net debt service outstanding by qualified statutory capital.
- (5)
- The financial resources ratio is calculated by dividing net debt service outstanding by total claims paying resources.
Note: Please refer to endnotes for explanation of non-GAAP financial measures [net present value of estimated future installment premiums in force (e)].
5
ASSURED GUARANTY LTD.
NEW BUSINESS PRODUCTION
(dollars in millions)
|
Quarter Ended September 30, |
|
Nine Months Ended September 30, |
|
|||||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
% Change versus 3Q-08 |
% Change versus YTD 2008 |
|||||||||||||||||||
|
2009 | 2008 | 2009 | 2008 | |||||||||||||||||
Consolidated new business analysis: |
|||||||||||||||||||||
Present value of new business premiums ("PVP")(a) |
|||||||||||||||||||||
Public financeU.S. |
$ | 154.9 | $ | 107.2 | 44 | % | $ | 500.2 | $ | 460.4 | 9 | % | |||||||||
Public financenon-U.S. |
| 17.7 | NM | 1.8 | 31.3 | (94 | )% | ||||||||||||||
Structured financeU.S. |
2.3 | 14.5 | (84 | )% | 16.9 | 144.9 | (88 | )% | |||||||||||||
Structured financenon-U.S. |
0.9 | | NM | 0.9 | 58.3 | (98 | )% | ||||||||||||||
Total PVP(a) |
158.1 | 139.4 | 13 | % | 519.8 | 694.9 | (25 | )% | |||||||||||||
Less: PVP(a) of credit derivatives |
| 1.1 | NM | 2.4 | 146.9 | (98 | )% | ||||||||||||||
PVP(a) of financial guaranty insurance |
158.1 | 138.3 | 14 | % | 517.4 | 548.0 | (6 | )% | |||||||||||||
Less: Financial guaranty installment premium PVP(a) |
4.2 | 37.8 | (89 | )% | 28.3 | 85.9 | (67 | )% | |||||||||||||
Total: Financial guaranty upfront GWP |
153.9 | 100.5 | 53 | % | 489.1 | 462.1 | 6 | % | |||||||||||||
Plus: Upfront premium due to commutation |
| (20.8 | ) | NM | | (20.8 | ) | NM | |||||||||||||
Plus: Financial guaranty installment GWP |
4.4 | 32.9 | (87 | )% | 4.4 | 88.9 | (95 | )% | |||||||||||||
Plus: Financial guaranty installment PVP(a) adjustment(1) |
(34.3 | ) | | NM | 7.4 | | NM | ||||||||||||||
Total financial guaranty GWP |
124.0 | 112.6 | 10 | % | 500.9 | 530.2 | (6 | )% | |||||||||||||
Plus: Mortgage guaranty segment GWP |
0.2 | 0.2 | 0 | % | 0.2 | 0.7 | (71 | )% | |||||||||||||
Plus: Other segment GWP |
| | NM | (1.1 | ) | 3.5 | NM | ||||||||||||||
Total GWP |
$ | 124.2 | $ | 112.8 | 10 | % | $ | 500.0 | $ | 534.4 | (6 | )% | |||||||||
Consolidated financial guaranty gross par written: |
|||||||||||||||||||||
Public financeU.S. |
$ | 8,497 | $ | 7,728 | 10 | % | $ | 40,384 | $ | 32,108 | 26 | % | |||||||||
Public financenon-U.S. |
| 1,146 | (100 | )% | 556 | | NM | ||||||||||||||
Structured financeU.S. |
600 | 1,926 | (69 | )% | 994 | 10,716 | (91 | )% | |||||||||||||
Structured financenon-U.S. |
| (24 | ) | (100 | )% | | 6,036 | (100 | )% | ||||||||||||
Total |
$ | 9,097 | $ | 10,776 | (16 | )% | $ | 41,934 | $ | 48,859 | (14 | )% | |||||||||
Financial guaranty direct GWP analysis: |
|||||||||||||||||||||
Financial guaranty direct PVP(a) |
|||||||||||||||||||||
Public financeU.S. |
$ | 154.9 | $ | 67.7 | 129 | % | $ | 409.5 | $ | 374.3 | 9 | % | |||||||||
Public financenon-U.S. |
| | | 1.7 | 9.0 | (81 | )% | ||||||||||||||
Structured financeU.S. |
2.3 | 14.5 | (84 | )% | 16.9 | 137.7 | (88 | )% | |||||||||||||
Structured financenon-U.S. |
0.9 | | NM | 0.9 | 57.8 | (98 | )% | ||||||||||||||
Financial guaranty direct PVP(a): |
158.1 | 82.2 | 92 | % | 429.0 | 578.8 | (26 | )% | |||||||||||||
Less: PVP(a) of credit derivatives GWP |
| | | 2.4 | 143.8 | (98 | )% | ||||||||||||||
PVP(a) of financial guaranty direct GWP |
158.1 | 82.2 | 92 | % | 426.6 | 435.0 | (2 | )% | |||||||||||||
Less: Present value of insurance installment premiums(a) |
4.2 | 30.3 | (86 | )% | 23.2 | 70.0 | (67 | )% | |||||||||||||
Upfront financial guaranty GWP |
153.9 | 51.9 | 197 | % | 403.4 | 365.0 | 11 | % | |||||||||||||
Plus: Financial guaranty installment GWP |
4.4 | 19.5 | (77 | )% | 4.4 | 50.6 | (91 | )% | |||||||||||||
Plus: Financial guaranty installment PVP(a) adjustment(1) |
(26.7 | ) | | NM | 7.6 | | NM | ||||||||||||||
Financial guaranty direct GWP |
$ | 131.6 | $ | 71.4 | 84 | % | $ | 415.4 | $ | 415.6 | (0 | )% | |||||||||
Financial guaranty direct gross par written: |
|||||||||||||||||||||
Public financeU.S. |
$ | 8,497 | $ | 5,574 | 52 | % | $ | 26,953 | $ | 25,958 | 4 | % | |||||||||
Public financenon-U.S. |
| | | 90 | | NM | |||||||||||||||
Structured financeU.S. |
600 | 1,920 | (69 | )% | 973 | 10,059 | (90 | )% | |||||||||||||
Structured financenon-U.S. |
| | | | 4,413 | (100 | )% | ||||||||||||||
Total |
$ | 9,097 | $ | 7,494 | 21 | % | $ | 28,016 | $ | 40,430 | (31 | )% | |||||||||
- (1)
- 2009 amounts represent the difference in management estimates for the discount rate applied to future installments as well as the estimated term for future installments compared to the discount rate used for ASC 944-20.
Note: Please refer to endnotes for explanation of non-GAAP financial measures [PVP (a)].
NM = Not meaningful
6
ASSURED GUARANTY LTD.
SEGMENT CONSOLIDATION
(dollars in millions)
|
Quarter Ended September 30, 2009 | |||||||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Financial Guaranty Direct |
Financial Guaranty Reinsurance(1)(2) |
Mortgage Guaranty |
Total Financial Guaranty |
Other | Total | ||||||||||||||
Total PVP(a) |
$ | 158.1 | $ | | $ | | $ | 158.1 | $ | 158.1 | ||||||||||
Income statement: |
||||||||||||||||||||
Net earned premiums(1) |
314.7 | 14.6 | 0.7 | 330.0 | | 330.0 | ||||||||||||||
Realized gains on credit derivatives: |
||||||||||||||||||||
Net credit derivative premiums earned |
57.0 | 0.2 | | 57.2 | | 57.2 | ||||||||||||||
Ceding commissions income (expense), net |
| 0.1 | | 0.1 | | 0.1 | ||||||||||||||
Total realized gains on credit derivatives(3) |
57.0 | 0.3 | | 57.3 | | 57.3 | ||||||||||||||
Other income |
34.6 | 21.5 | | 56.1 | | 56.1 | ||||||||||||||
Total revenues |
406.3 | 36.4 | 0.7 | 443.4 | | 443.4 | ||||||||||||||
|
| |||||||||||||||||||
Loss and loss adjustment expenses(1) |
97.2 | 35.9 | 0.2 | 133.3 | | 133.3 | ||||||||||||||
Incurred losses (gains) on credit derivatives(4) |
142.4 | (0.2 | ) | | 142.2 | | 142.2 | |||||||||||||
Total incurred losses |
239.6 | 35.7 | 0.2 | 275.5 | | 275.5 | ||||||||||||||
Profit commission expense |
| | 0.2 | 0.2 | | 0.2 | ||||||||||||||
Amortization of deferred acquisition costs(1) |
3.0 | (1.8 | ) | 0.1 | 1.3 | | 1.3 | |||||||||||||
Operating expenses |
59.1 | 6.3 | 0.8 | 66.2 | | 66.2 | ||||||||||||||
Total underwriting expenses |
$ | 301.7 | $ | 40.2 | $ | 1.3 | $ | 343.2 | $ | | $ | 343.2 | ||||||||
Underwriting (loss) gain |
$ | 104.6 | $ | (3.8 | ) | $ | (0.6 | ) | $ | 100.2 | $ | | $ | 100.2 | ||||||
Expense ratio(f) |
16.7 | % | 29.7 | % | 160.3 | % | 17.5 | % | 17.5 | % |
7
ASSURED GUARANTY LTD.
SEGMENT CONSOLIDATION (Continued)
(dollars in millions)
|
Quarter Ended September 30, 2008 | |||||||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Financial Guaranty Direct |
Financial Guaranty Reinsurance(1)(2) |
Mortgage Guaranty |
Total Financial Guaranty |
Other | Total | ||||||||||||||
Total PVP(a) |
$ | 82.2 | $ | 57.2 | $ | | $ | 139.4 | $ | 139.4 | ||||||||||
Income statement: |
||||||||||||||||||||
Net earned premiums |
26.9 | 57.4 | 1.2 | 85.5 | | 85.5 | ||||||||||||||
Realized gains on credit derivatives: |
||||||||||||||||||||
Net credit derivative premiums earned |
28.4 | 2.1 | | 30.5 | | 30.5 | ||||||||||||||
Ceding commissions income (expense), net |
0.2 | (0.7 | ) | | (0.5 | ) | | (0.5 | ) | |||||||||||
Total realized gains on credit derivatives(3) |
28.6 | 1.4 | | 30.0 | | 30.0 | ||||||||||||||
Other income |
| | | | | | ||||||||||||||
Total revenues |
55.5 | 58.8 | 1.2 | 115.5 | | 115.5 | ||||||||||||||
Loss and loss adjustment expenses |
65.9 | 15.5 | 1.0 | 82.5 | | 82.5 | ||||||||||||||
Incurred losses (gains) on credit derivatives(4) |
10.1 | | | 10.1 | | 10.1 | ||||||||||||||
Total incurred losses |
76.0 | 15.5 | 1.0 | 92.6 | | 92.6 | ||||||||||||||
Profit commission expense |
| (1.5 | ) | 0.1 | (1.4 | ) | | (1.4 | ) | |||||||||||
Amortization of deferred acquisition costs |
4.0 | 15.1 | 0.1 | 19.3 | | 19.3 | ||||||||||||||
Operating expenses |
15.4 | 5.6 | 0.5 | 21.6 | | 21.6 | ||||||||||||||
Total underwriting expenses |
$ | 95.5 | $ | 34.8 | $ | 1.7 | $ | 132.0 | $ | | $ | 132.0 | ||||||||
Underwriting gain |
$ | (40.0 | ) | $ | 24.0 | $ | (0.5 | ) | $ | (16.5 | ) | $ | | $ | (16.5 | ) | ||||
Expense ratio(f) |
34.8 | % | 33.5 | % | 59.3 | % | 34.4 | % | 34.4 | % |
- (1)
- The
Company adopted ASC 944-20 effective January 1, 2009.
- (2)
- Due
to the timing of receiving reports prepared by Assured's ceding companies, PVP(a) for installment premiums, par written and par outstanding on treaty
business in the Company's Financial Guaranty Reinsurance segment are reported on a one-quarter lag.
- (3)
- Includes
premiums and ceding commissions.
- (4)
- Includes paid and payable losses and received and receivable recoveries.
Note: Please refer to endnotes for explanation of non-GAAP financial measures [PVP (a), and expense ratio (f)].
8
ASSURED GUARANTY LTD.
SEGMENT CONSOLIDATION (Continued)
(dollars in millions)
|
Nine Months Ended September 30, 2009 | |||||||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Financial Guaranty Direct |
Financial Guaranty Reinsurance(1)(2) |
Mortgage Guaranty |
Total Financial Guaranty |
Other | Total | ||||||||||||||
Total PVP(a) |
$ | 429.0 | $ | 90.8 | $ | | $ | 519.8 | $ | 519.8 | ||||||||||
Income statement: |
||||||||||||||||||||
Net earned premiums(1) |
446.6 | 108.2 | 2.3 | 557.1 | | 557.1 | ||||||||||||||
Realized gains on credit derivatives: |
||||||||||||||||||||
Net credit derivative premiums earned |
112.6 | 2.3 | | 114.9 | | 114.9 | ||||||||||||||
Ceding commissions income (expense), net |
0.8 | (0.9 | ) | | (0.1 | ) | | (0.1 | ) | |||||||||||
Total realized gains on credit derivatives(3) |
113.4 | 1.4 | | 114.8 | | 114.8 | ||||||||||||||
Other income |
34.6 | 21.5 | 56.1 | | 56.1 | |||||||||||||||
Total revenues |
594.6 | 131.1 | 2.3 | 728.0 | | 728.0 | ||||||||||||||
|
| |||||||||||||||||||
Loss and loss adjustment expenses(1) |
140.8 | 98.3 | 12.0 | 251.1 | | 251.1 | ||||||||||||||
Incurred losses (gains) on credit derivatives(4) |
178.9 | (0.4 | ) | | 178.5 | | 178.5 | |||||||||||||
Total incurred losses |
319.7 | 97.9 | 12.0 | 429.6 | | 429.6 | ||||||||||||||
Profit commission expense |
| 1.9 | 0.6 | 2.5 | | 2.5 | ||||||||||||||
Amortization of deferred acquisition costs(1) |
12.8 | 28.1 | 0.4 | 41.3 | | 41.3 | ||||||||||||||
Operating expenses |
95.3 | 19.2 | 2.0 | 116.5 | | 116.5 | ||||||||||||||
Total underwriting expenses |
$ | 427.8 | $ | 147.2 | $ | 15.0 | $ | 589.9 | $ | | $ | 589.9 | ||||||||
Underwriting (loss) gain |
$ | 166.8 | $ | (16.0 | ) | $ | (12.7 | ) | $ | 138.1 | $ | | $ | 138.1 | ||||||
Expense ratio(f) |
19.2 | % | 45.4 | % | 131.3 | % | 23.9 | % | 23.9 | % |
9
ASSURED GUARANTY LTD.
SEGMENT CONSOLIDATION (Continued)
(dollars in millions)
|
Nine Months Ended September 30, 2008 | |||||||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Financial Guaranty Direct |
Financial Guaranty Reinsurance(2) |
Mortgage Guaranty |
Total Financial Guaranty |
Other | Total | ||||||||||||||
Total PVP(a) |
$ | 578.8 | $ | 116.1 | $ | | $ | 694.9 | $ | 694.9 | ||||||||||
Income statement: |
||||||||||||||||||||
Net earned premiums |
65.0 | 114.8 | 4.4 | 184.0 | | 184.0 | ||||||||||||||
Realized gains on credit derivatives: |
||||||||||||||||||||
Net credit derivative premiums earned |
86.4 | 3.4 | | 89.8 | | 89.8 | ||||||||||||||
Ceding commissions income (expense), net |
0.3 | (1.1 | ) | | (0.8 | ) | | (0.8 | ) | |||||||||||
Total realized gains on credit derivatives(3) |
86.7 | 2.3 | | 89.0 | | 89.0 | ||||||||||||||
Other income |
| | | | | | ||||||||||||||
Total revenues |
151.7 | 117.1 | 4.4 | 273.1 | | 273.1 | ||||||||||||||
Loss and loss adjustment expenses |
130.0 | 46.0 | 1.1 | 177.1 | (1.5 | ) | 175.8 | |||||||||||||
Incurred losses (gains) on credit derivatives(4) |
18.9 | | | 18.9 | (0.4 | ) | 18.5 | |||||||||||||
Total incurred losses |
148.9 | 46.0 | 1.1 | 196.0 | (1.9 | ) | 194.3 | |||||||||||||
Profit commission expense |
| 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.8 | | 0.8 | ||||||||||||||
Amortization of deferred acquisition costs |
10.1 | 32.5 | 0.3 | 43.0 | | 43.0 | ||||||||||||||
Operating expenses |
51.9 | 16.0 | 1.9 | 69.9 | | 69.9 | ||||||||||||||
Total underwriting expenses |
$ | 210.9 | $ | 95.1 | $ | 3.6 | $ | 309.6 | $ | (1.9 | ) | $ | 307.9 | |||||||
Underwriting gain |
$ | (59.2 | ) | $ | 22.0 | $ | 0.8 | $ | (36.4 | ) | $ | 1.9 | $ | (34.6 | ) | |||||
Expense ratio(f) |
40.7 | % | 42.4 | % | 57.5 | % | 41.8 | % | 41.8 | % |
- (1)
- The
Company adopted ASC 944-20 effective January 1, 2009.
- (2)
- Due
to the timing of receiving reports prepared by Assured's ceding companies, PVP(a) for installment premiums, par written and par outstanding on treaty
business in the Company's Financial Guaranty Reinsurance segment are reported on a one-quarter lag.
- (3)
- Includes
premiums and ceding commissions.
- (4)
- Includes paid and payable losses and received and receivable recoveries.
Note: Please refer to endnotes for explanation of non-GAAP financial measures [PVP (a), and expense ratio (f)].
10
ASSURED GUARANTY LTD.
FINANCIAL GUARANTY DIRECT SEGMENT
(dollars in millions)
|
3Q-08 | 3Q-09 | Nine Months 2008 |
Nine Months 2009 |
|||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income statement: |
|||||||||||||||
Net earned premiums: |
|||||||||||||||
Scheduled net earned premiums(1) |
|||||||||||||||
Public financeU.S. |
$ | 9.9 | $ | 69.7 | $ | 18.7 | $ | 95.1 | |||||||
Public financenon-U.S. |
1.3 | 17.9 | 3.9 | 20.1 | |||||||||||
Structured financeU.S. |
12.3 | 208.4 | 37.2 | 235.9 | |||||||||||
Structured financenon-U.S. |
3.4 | 7.6 | 5.2 | 10.8 | |||||||||||
Total scheduled net earned premiums |
26.9 | 303.6 | 65.0 | 361.9 | |||||||||||
Net earned premiums from refundings and accelerations(1) |
| 11.1 | | 84.7 | |||||||||||
Total net earned premiums |
26.9 | 314.7 | 65.0 | 446.6 | |||||||||||
Realized gains on credit derivatives: |
|||||||||||||||
Net credit derivative premiums earned |
28.4 | 57.0 | 86.4 | 112.6 | |||||||||||
Ceding commissions income (expense), net |
0.2 | | 0.3 | 0.8 | |||||||||||
Total realized gains on credit derivatives(2) |
28.6 | 57.0 | 86.7 | 113.4 | |||||||||||
Other income |
| 34.6 | | 34.6 | |||||||||||
Total revenues |
55.5 | 406.3 | 151.7 | 594.6 | |||||||||||
Loss and loss adjustment expenses (recoveries)(1): |
|||||||||||||||
Case |
99.9 | 97.2 | 132.1 | 140.8 | |||||||||||
Portfolio |
(34.0 | ) | | (2.1 | ) | | |||||||||
Total loss and loss adjustment expenses (recoveries)financial guaranty |
65.9 | 97.2 | 130.0 | 140.8 | |||||||||||
Incurred losses (gains) on credit derivatives(3) |
10.1 | 142.4 | 18.9 | 178.9 | |||||||||||
Total incurred losses |
76.0 | 239.6 | 148.9 | 319.7 | |||||||||||
Profit commission expense |
| | | | |||||||||||
Amortization of deferred acquisition costs(1) |
4.0 | 3.0 | 10.1 | 12.8 | |||||||||||
Operating expenses |
15.4 | 59.1 | 51.9 | 95.3 | |||||||||||
Total expenses |
$ | 95.5 | $ | 301.7 | $ | 210.9 | $ | 427.8 | |||||||
Underwriting gain (loss) |
$ | (40.0 | ) | $ | 104.6 | $ | (59.2 | ) | $ | 166.8 | |||||
Expense ratio(f) |
34.8 | % | 16.7 | % | 40.7 | % | 19.2 | % |
- (1)
- The
Company adopted ASC 944-20 effective January 1, 2009.
- (2)
- Includes
premiums and ceding commissions.
- (3)
- Includes paid and payable losses and received and receivable recoveries.
Note: Please refer to endnotes for explanation of non-GAAP financial measures [PVP (a), and expense ratio (f)].
11
ASSURED GUARANTY LTD.
FINANCIAL GUARANTY DIRECT SEGMENT (Continued)
(dollars in millions)
|
3Q-08 | 3Q-09 | Nine Months 2008 |
Nine Months 2009 |
|||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PVP(a): |
|||||||||||||||
Public financeU.S. |
$ | 67.7 | $ | 154.9 | $ | 374.3 | $ | 409.5 | |||||||
Public financenon-U.S. |
| | 9.0 | 1.7 | |||||||||||
Structured financeU.S. |
14.5 | 2.3 | 137.7 | 16.9 | |||||||||||
Structured financenon-U.S. |
| 0.9 | 57.8 | 0.9 | |||||||||||
Total PVP(a) |
82.2 | 158.1 | 578.8 | 429.0 | |||||||||||
Less: PVP(a) of credit derivatives GWP |
| | 143.8 | 2.4 | |||||||||||
PVP of financial guaranty GWP |
82.2 | 158.1 | 435.0 | 426.6 | |||||||||||
Less: Present value of insurance installment premiums(a) |
30.3 | 4.2 | 70.0 | 23.2 | |||||||||||
Upfront financial guaranty GWP |
51.9 | 153.9 | 365.0 | 403.4 | |||||||||||
Plus: Financial guaranty installment GWP |
19.5 | 4.4 | 50.6 | 4.4 | |||||||||||
Plus: Financial guaranty installment PVP(a) adjustment(2) |
| (26.7 | ) | | 7.6 | ||||||||||
Financial guaranty direct GWP |
$ | 71.4 | $ | 131.6 | $ | 415.6 | $ | 415.4 | |||||||
Gross par written: |
|||||||||||||||
Public financeU.S. |
$ | 5,574 | $ | 8,497 | $ | 25,958 | $ | 26,953 | |||||||
Public financenon-U.S. |
| | | 90 | |||||||||||
Structured financeU.S. |
1,920 | 600 | 10,059 | 973 | |||||||||||
Structured financenon-U.S. |
| | 4,413 | | |||||||||||
Total |
$ | 7,494 | $ | 9,097 | $ | 40,430 | $ | 28,016 | |||||||
|
|
|
As of September 30, | |||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
|
2008 | 2009 | ||||||||||
Net par outstanding: |
||||||||||||||
Public financeU.S. |
$ | 32,889 | $ | 371,748 | ||||||||||
Public financenon-U.S. |
11,274 | 37,139 | ||||||||||||
Structured financeU.S. |
66,567 | 135,939 | ||||||||||||
Structured financenon-U.S. |
21,355 | 33,080 | ||||||||||||
Total |
$ | 132,084 | $ | 577,906 | ||||||||||
Unearned premium reserve, net of ceded reinsurancefinancial guaranty |
$ | 569.4 | $ | 7,036.4 | ||||||||||
Unearned credit derivative revenues, net of ceded reinsurance |
14.2 | 50.1 | ||||||||||||
Net present value of installment premiums in forcecredit derivatives(e) |
408.0 | 805.1 | ||||||||||||
Net present value of installment premiums in forcefinancial guaranty(e)(1) |
241.3 | |
- (1)
- The
Company adopted ASC 944-20 effective January 1, 2009. Net present value of installment premiums in force for financial guaranty are
included in "unearned premium reserve, net of ceded reinsurancefinancial guaranty" line.
- (2)
- 2009 amounts represent the difference in management estimates for the discount rate applied to future installments as well as the estimated term for future installments compared to the discount rate used for ASC 944-20.
Note: Please refer to endnotes for explanation of non-GAAP financial measures [PVP (a) and net present value of estimated future installment premiums in force (e)].
Note: AGM is included in the financial guaranty direct segment.
12
ASSURED GUARANTY LTD.
FINANCIAL GUARANTY REINSURANCE SEGMENT
(dollars in millions)
|
3Q-08 | 3Q-09 | Nine Months 2008 |
Nine Months 2009 |
|||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income statement: |
|||||||||||||||
Net earned premiums(1): |
|||||||||||||||
Scheduled net earned premiums |
$ | 25.7 | $ | 8.3 | $ | 78.6 | $ | 65.1 | |||||||
Net earned premiums from refundings and accelerations |
31.7 | 6.3 | 36.2 | 43.1 | |||||||||||
Total net earned premiums |
57.4 | 14.6 | 114.8 | 108.2 | |||||||||||
Realized gains on credit derivatives: |
|||||||||||||||
Net credit derivative premiums earned |
2.1 | 0.2 | 3.4 | 2.3 | |||||||||||
Ceding commissions income (expense), net |
(0.7 | ) | 0.1 | (1.1 | ) | (0.9 | ) | ||||||||
Total realized gains on credit derivatives(2) |
1.4 | 0.3 | 2.3 | 1.4 | |||||||||||
Other income |
| 21.5 | | 21.5 | |||||||||||
Total revenues |
58.8 | 36.4 | 117.1 | 131.1 | |||||||||||
Loss and loss adjustment expenses (recoveries)(1): |
|||||||||||||||
Case |
18.0 | 35.9 | 47.0 | 98.3 | |||||||||||
Portfolio |
(2.5 | ) | | (1.0 | ) | | |||||||||
Total loss and loss adjustment expenses (recoveries)financial guaranty |
15.5 | 35.9 | 46.0 | 98.3 | |||||||||||
Incurred losses (gains) on credit derivatives(3) |
| (0.2 | ) | | (0.4 | ) | |||||||||
Total incurred losses |
15.5 | 35.7 | 46.0 | 97.9 | |||||||||||
Profit commission expense |
(1.5 | ) | | 0.5 | 1.9 | ||||||||||
Amortization of deferred acquisition costs(1) |
15.1 | (1.8 | ) | 32.5 | 28.1 | ||||||||||
Operating expenses |
5.6 | 6.3 | 16.0 | 19.2 | |||||||||||
Total expenses |
$ | 34.8 | $ | 40.2 | $ | 95.1 | $ | 147.2 | |||||||
Underwriting gain (loss) |
$ | 24.0 | $ | (3.8 | ) | $ | 22.0 | $ | (16.0 | ) | |||||
Expense ratio(f) |
33.5 | % | 29.7 | % | 42.4 | % | 45.4 | % |
- (1)
- The
Company adopted ASC 944-20 effective January 1, 2009.
- (2)
- Includes
premiums and ceding commissions.
- (3)
- Includes paid and payable losses and received and receivable recoveries.
Note: Please refer to endnotes for explanation of non-GAAP financial measures [PVP (a), and expense ratio (f)].
13
ASSURED GUARANTY LTD.
FINANCIAL GUARANTY REINSURANCE SEGMENT (Continued)
(dollars in millions)
|
3Q-08 | 3Q-09 | Nine Months 2008 |
Nine Months 2009 |
|||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PVP(a): |
|||||||||||||||
Public financeU.S. |
$ | 39.5 | $ | | $ | 86.1 | $ | 90.7 | |||||||
Public financenon-U.S. |
17.7 | | 22.3 | 0.1 | |||||||||||
Structured financeU.S. |
| | 7.2 | | |||||||||||
Structured financenon-U.S. |
| | 0.5 | | |||||||||||
Total PVP(a) |
57.2 | | 116.1 | 90.8 | |||||||||||
Less: PVP(a) of credit derivatives GWP |
1.1 | | 3.0 | | |||||||||||
PVP(a) of financial guaranty GWP |
56.1 | | 113.0 | 90.8 | |||||||||||
Less: Present value of financial guaranty installment premiums(a) |
7.5 | | 15.9 | 5.1 | |||||||||||
Upfront financial guaranty GWP |
48.6 | | 97.1 | 85.7 | |||||||||||
Plus: Upfront premium due to commutation(2) |
(20.8 | ) | | (20.8 | ) | | |||||||||
Plus: Financial guaranty installment GWP |
13.4 | | 38.3 | | |||||||||||
Plus: Financial guaranty installment PVP(a) adjustment(3) |
| (7.5 | ) | | (0.1 | ) | |||||||||
Financial guaranty reinsurance GWP |
$ | 41.2 | $ | (7.5 | ) | $ | 114.6 | $ | 85.6 | ||||||
Gross par written: |
|||||||||||||||
Public financeU.S. |
$ | 2,154 | $ | | $ | 6,150 | $ | 13,431 | |||||||
Public financenon-U.S. |
1,146 | | | 466 | |||||||||||
Structured financeU.S. |
6 | | 656 | 21 | |||||||||||
Structured financenon-U.S. |
(24 | ) | | 1,623 | | ||||||||||
Total |
$ | 3,282 | $ | | $ | 8,429 | $ | 13,918 | |||||||
|
|
|
As of September 30, | |||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Net par outstanding: |
|
|
2008 | 2009 | ||||||||||
Public financeU.S. |
$ | 72,695 | $ | 53,137 | ||||||||||
Public financenon-U.S. |
| 6,088 | ||||||||||||
Structured financeU.S. |
9,216 | 6,244 | ||||||||||||
Structured financenon-U.S. |
13,347 | 3,255 | ||||||||||||
Total |
$ | 95,258 | $ | 68,724 | ||||||||||
Unearned premium reserve, net of ceded reinsurancefinancial guaranty |
$ | 625.9 | $ | 670.4 | ||||||||||
Unearned credit derivative revenues, net of ceded reinsurance |
4.4 | 3.4 | ||||||||||||
Net present value of installment premiums in forcecredit derivatives(e) |
11.2 | 12.3 | ||||||||||||
Net present value of installment premiums in forcefinancial guaranty(e)(4) |
253.4 | |
- (1)
- Due
to the timing of receiving reports prepared by Assured's ceding companies, PVP for installment premiums, par written and par outstanding on treaty
business in the Company's financial guaranty reinsurance segment are reported on a one-quarter lag.
- (2)
- Relates
to commutation of XLFA reinsurance cession of approximately $2.1 billion of net par outstanding.
- (3)
- 2009
amounts represent the difference in management estimates for the discount rate applied to future installments as well as the estimated term for future
installments compared to the discount rate used for ASC 944-20.
- (4)
- The Company adopted ASC 944-20 effective January 1, 2009. Net present value of installment premiums in force for financial guaranty are included in "unearned premium reserve, net of ceded reinsurancefinancial guaranty" line.
Note: Please refer to endnotes for explanation of non-GAAP financial measures [PVP (a) and net present value of estimated future installment premiums in force (e)].
Note: AGM is included in the financial guaranty direct segment.
14
ASSURED GUARANTY LTD.
INVESTMENT PORTFOLIO
As of September 30, 2009
(dollars in millions)
|
Amortized Cost |
Pre-Tax Book Yield |
After-Tax Book Yield |
Fair Value |
Annualized Investment Income(4) |
||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Investment Portfolio, available-for-sale: |
|||||||||||||||||||
Fixed maturity securities: |
|||||||||||||||||||
U.S. Treasury securities and obligations of U.S. government agencies |
$ | 510.9 | 2.99 | % | 2.26 | % | $ | 530.6 | $ | 15.3 | |||||||||
Agency obligations |
439.2 | 3.81 | % | 3.36 | % | 458.3 | 16.7 | ||||||||||||
Foreign government securities |
350.9 | 2.98 | % | 1.96 | % | 351.3 | 10.5 | ||||||||||||
Obligations of states and political subdivisions |
2,547.4 | 3.64 | % | 3.43 | % | 2,666.9 | 92.7 | ||||||||||||
Insured obligations of state and political subdivisions(1) |
2,436.8 | 4.57 | % | 4.33 | % | 2,572.6 | 111.4 | ||||||||||||
Corporate securities |
356.5 | 4.69 | % | 4.13 | % | 370.4 | 16.7 | ||||||||||||
Mortgage-backed securities(2): |
|||||||||||||||||||
Pass-throughs |
1,416.2 | 5.47 | % | 4.74 | % | 1,419.3 | 77.5 | ||||||||||||
PACs |
23.5 | 4.57 | % | 4.27 | % | 23.9 | 1.1 | ||||||||||||
Asset-backed securities(3) |
69.6 | 5.02 | % | 5.01 | % | 54.8 | 3.5 | ||||||||||||
Total fixed maturity securities |
8,151.0 | 4.24 | % | 3.83 | % | 8,448.1 | 345.4 | ||||||||||||
Short-term investments |
1,492.5 | 0.21 | % | 0.16 | % | 1,492.9 | 3.1 | ||||||||||||
Total investment portfolio |
$ | 9,643.5 | 3.61 | % | 3.27 | % | $ | 9,941.0 | $ | 348.5 | |||||||||
|
Fair Value |
% | |
|
|
||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Ratings(5): |
|||||||||||||||||
Treasury and U.S. government obligations |
$ | 530.6 | 6.3 | % | |||||||||||||
Agency obligations |
458.3 | 5.4 | % | ||||||||||||||
AAA/Aaa |
2,858.3 | 33.9 | % | ||||||||||||||
AA/Aa |
2,890.2 | 34.2 | % | ||||||||||||||
A/A |
1,412.7 | 16.7 | % | ||||||||||||||
BBB |
185.4 | 2.2 | % | ||||||||||||||
Below investment grade ("BIG")(6) |
112.6 | 1.3 | % | ||||||||||||||
Total fixed maturity securities available for sale |
$ | 8,448.1 | 100.0 | % | |||||||||||||
Duration of investment portfolio (in years): |
3.8 | ||||||||||||||||
- (1)
- Reflects
obligations of state and local political subdivisions that have been insured by other financial guarantors. The underlying ratings of these bonds
average A+. Includes $545.6 million insured by AGC & AGM.
- (2)
- $2.3 million
is U.S. subprime RMBS, which has an average rating of AAA.
- (3)
- Contains
no CDOs of ABS.
- (4)
- Represents
annualized investment income based on amortized cost and pre-tax book yields.
- (5)
- Ratings
are represented by the lower of the Moody's Investors Service and Standard & Poor's classifications.
- (6)
- Includes $31.4 million which the Company purchased for risk mitigation purposes.
15
ASSURED GUARANTY LTD.
ESTIMATED NET EXPOSURE AMORTIZATION(1)
(dollars in millions)
|
Estimated Net Debt Service Amortization |
Estimated Ending Net Debt Service Outstanding |
||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total Financial Guaranty: |
||||||||
2009 (as of September 30) |
$ | 967,440 | ||||||
2009 (October-December) |
$ | 17,224 | 950,216 | |||||
2010 |
69,907 | 880,309 | ||||||
2011 |
60,847 | 819,462 | ||||||
2012 |
67,740 | 751,722 | ||||||
2013 |
59,903 | 691,819 | ||||||
2009-2013 |
275,621 |
691,819 |
||||||
2014-2018 |
243,890 | 447,929 | ||||||
2019-2023 |
162,984 | 284,945 | ||||||
2024-2028 |
117,950 | 166,995 | ||||||
After 2028 |
166,995 | | ||||||
Total |
$ | 967,440 | ||||||
- (1)
- Represents amortization of existing guaranteed portfolio (principal and interest), assuming no advance refundings, as of September 30, 2009. Expected maturities will differ from contractual maturities because borrowers may have the right to call or prepay guaranteed obligations.
16
ASSURED GUARANTY LTD.
ESTIMATED NET UNEARNED PREMIUM AMORTIZATION AND ESTIMATED NET FUTURE INSTALLMENT PREMIUMS
(dollars in millions)
|
Non-Credit Derivative Financial Guaranty Contracts | |
|
|||||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Run-off of Net UPR(1) |
Expected Losses |
Run-off of Net UPR in Excess of Expected Losses |
Accretion of Discount |
Credit Derivative Revenues and Other Installment Earned Premiums(2) |
Total | ||||||||||||||
Total Financial Guaranty: |
||||||||||||||||||||
2009 (4th Qtr) |
$ | 304.0 | $ | 16.6 | $ | 287.4 | $ | 9.9 | $ | 60.7 | $ | 358.0 | ||||||||
2010 |
1,054.0 | 158.4 | 895.6 | 37.6 | 196.8 | 1,130.0 | ||||||||||||||
2011 |
809.1 | 116.8 | 692.3 | 35.3 | 175.4 | 903.0 | ||||||||||||||
2012 |
670.8 | 120.3 | 550.5 | 33.2 | 141.3 | 725.0 | ||||||||||||||
2013 |
570.7 | 119.2 | 451.5 | 31.0 | 106.9 | 589.4 | ||||||||||||||
2009-2013 |
3,408.6 |
531.3 |
2,877.3 |
147.0 |
681.1 |
3,705.4 |
||||||||||||||
2014-2018 |
1,894.1 | 354.5 | 1,539.6 | 126.6 | 220.9 | 1,887.1 | ||||||||||||||
2019-2023 |
1,019.1 | 86.1 | 933.0 | 86.9 | 87.0 | 1,106.9 | ||||||||||||||
2024-2028 |
642.0 | 40.8 | 601.2 | 55.4 | 62.5 | 719.1 | ||||||||||||||
After 2028 |
742.8 | 53.0 | 689.8 | 47.8 | 116.3 | 853.9 | ||||||||||||||
Total |
$ | 7,706.6 | $ | 1,065.7 | $ | 6,640.9 | $ | 463.7 | $ | 1,167.8 | $ | 8,272.4 | ||||||||
- (1)
- Net
unearned premium reserve ("UPR") amounts are U.S. GAAP based UPR and net of ceded unearned premiums.
- (2)
- Includes earnings on future installments of credit derivatives.
17
ASSURED GUARANTY LTD.
FINANCIAL GUARANTY PROFILE
As of September 30, 2009
(dollars in millions)
Historical Net Par Outstanding and Average Rating by Asset Type
|
Financial Guaranty Direct |
Financial Guaranty Reinsurance |
Consolidated | ||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Net Par Outstanding | Avg. Rating(1) | |||||||||||
Sector:
|
Net Par Outstanding | Net Par Outstanding | |||||||||||
Public Finance |
|||||||||||||
United States: |
|||||||||||||
General obligation |
$ | 161,128 | $ | 17,306 | $ | 178,434 | A+ | ||||||
Tax backed |
73,307 | 10,283 | 83,590 | A+ | |||||||||
Municipal utilities |
63,032 | 6,931 | 69,963 | A | |||||||||
Transportation |
29,072 | 6,870 | 35,942 | A | |||||||||
Healthcare |
19,587 | 2,512 | 22,099 | A | |||||||||
Higher education |
11,967 | 3,023 | 14,990 | A+ | |||||||||
Housing |
7,258 | 1,432 | 8,690 | AA- | |||||||||
Infrastructure finance |
2,454 | 828 | 3,282 | BBB | |||||||||
Investor-owned utilities |
124 | 1,725 | 1,849 | BBB+ | |||||||||
Other public finance |
3,819 | 2,227 | 6,046 | A | |||||||||
Total public financeU.S. |
$ | 371,748 | $ | 53,137 | $ | 424,885 | A+ | ||||||
Non-U.S.: |
|||||||||||||
Infrastructure finance |
$ | 13,117 | $ | 2,941 | $ | 16,058 | BBB | ||||||
Regulated utilities |
11,331 | 2,584 | 13,915 | BBB+ | |||||||||
Pooled infrastructure |
4,389 | | 4,389 | AAA | |||||||||
Other public finance |
8,302 | 563 | 8,865 | AA- | |||||||||
Total public financenon-U.S. |
$ | 37,139 | $ | 6,088 | $ | 43,227 | A- | ||||||
Total public finance |
$ | 408,887 | $ | 59,225 | $ | 468,112 | A+ | ||||||
Structured Finance |
|||||||||||||
United States: |
|||||||||||||
Pooled corporate obligations |
$ | 74,641 | $ | 925 | $ | 75,566 | AAA | ||||||
Residential mortgage-backed and home equity |
29,555 | 602 | 30,157 | BB+ | |||||||||
Financial products |
10,914 | | 10,914 | AA- | |||||||||
Consumer receivables |
7,831 | 1,654 | 9,485 | A | |||||||||
Commercial mortgage-backed securities |
7,076 | 379 | 7,455 | AAA | |||||||||
Commercial receivables |
1,211 | 1,730 | 2,941 | BBB+ | |||||||||
Structured credit |
2,393 | 343 | 2,736 | A- | |||||||||
Insurance securitizations |
1,314 | 337 | 1,651 | A+ | |||||||||
Other structured finance |
1,004 | 274 | 1,278 | A- | |||||||||
Total structured financeU.S. |
$ | 135,939 | $ | 6,244 | $ | 142,183 | AA- | ||||||
Non-U.S.: |
|||||||||||||
Pooled corporate obligations |
$ | 23,343 | $ | 1,037 | $ | 24,380 | AAA | ||||||
Residential mortgage-backed and home equity |
5,253 | 65 | 5,318 | AAA | |||||||||
Structured credit |
1,475 | 757 | 2,232 | BBB | |||||||||
Commercial receivables |
1,027 | 871 | 1,898 | A- | |||||||||
Insurance securitizations |
964 | 31 | 995 | CCC | |||||||||
Commercial mortgage-backed securities |
452 | 320 | 772 | AA | |||||||||
Other structured finance |
566 | 174 | 740 | AAA | |||||||||
Total structured financenon-U.S. |
$ | 33,080 | $ | 3,255 | $ | 36,335 | AA | ||||||
Total structured finance |
$ | 169,019 | $ | 9,499 | $ | 178,518 | AA- | ||||||
Total exposures |
$ | 577,906 | $ | 68,724 | $ | 646,630 | A+ | ||||||
Mortgage guaranty risk in force |
$ | 395 | NA |
- (1)
- Assured's internal rating. Assured's scale is comparable to that of the nationally recognized rating agencies. The super senior category, which is not generally used by rating agencies, is used by the Company in instances where Assured's AAA-rated exposure has additional credit enhancement due to either (1) the existence of another security rated AAA that is subordinated to Assured's exposure or (2) Assured's exposure benefits from a different form of credit enhancement that would pay any claims first in the event that any of the exposures incurs a loss, and such credit enhancement, in management's opinion, causes Assured's attachment point to be materially above the AAA attachment point.
Please refer to Glossary for description of selected types of U.S. public finance, non-U.S. public finance, U.S. structured finance and non-U.S. structured finance obligations hat the Company insures and reinsures.
NA = Not Applicable
18
ASSURED GUARANTY LTD.
FINANCIAL GUARANTY PROFILE (Continued)
As of September 30, 2009
(dollars in millions)
Gross Par Written by Asset Type
|
Total Financial Guaranty |
Avg. Rating(1) | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3Q-09 | ||||||
Sector: |
|||||||
Public Finance |
|||||||
United States: |
|||||||
Tax backed |
$ | 2,740 | A | ||||
General obligation |
2,608 | A | |||||
Municipal utilities |
1,289 | A | |||||
Transportation |
1,196 | A- | |||||
Higher education |
288 | A | |||||
Healthcare |
294 | A | |||||
Infrastructure finance |
56 | A- | |||||
Housing |
26 | AA | |||||
Other public finance |
| | |||||
Total public financeU.S. |
$ | 8,497 | A | ||||
Non-U.S.: |
|||||||
Infrastructure finance |
$ | | | ||||
Regulated utilities |
| | |||||
Other public finance |
| | |||||
Total public financenon-U.S. |
$ | | | ||||
Total public finance |
$ | 8,497 | A | ||||
Structured Finance |
|||||||
United States: |
|||||||
Consumer receivables |
$ | 600 | AAA | ||||
Commercial receivables |
| | |||||
Total structured financeU.S. |
$ | 600 | AAA | ||||
Non-U.S.: |
|||||||
Total structured financenon-U.S. |
$ | | | ||||
Total structured finance |
$ | 600 | AAA | ||||
Total gross par written |
$ | 9,097 | A | ||||
- (1)
- Assured's internal rating. Assured's scale is comparable to that of the nationally recognized rating agencies. The super senior category, which is not generally used by rating agencies, is used by the Company in instances where Assured's AAA-rated exposure has additional credit enhancement due to either (1) the existence of another security rated AAA that is subordinated to Assured's exposure or (2) Assured's exposure benefits from a different form of credit enhancement that would pay any claims first in the event that any of the exposures incurs a loss, and such credit enhancement, in management's opinion, causes Assured's attachment point to be materially above the AAA attachment point.
Please refer to Glossary for description of selected types of U.S. public finance, non-U.S. public finance, U.S. structured finance and non-U.S. structured finance obligations that the Company insures and reinsures.
19
ASSURED GUARANTY LTD.
FINANCIAL GUARANTY PROFILE (Continued)
As of September 30, 2009
(dollars in millions)
Distribution by Ratings of Financial Guaranty Portfolio
|
As of September 30, 2009 | |||||||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Financial Guaranty Direct |
Financial Guaranty Reinsurance |
Consolidated | |||||||||||||||||
Ratings(1):
|
Net Par Outstanding |
% | Net Par Outstanding |
% | Net Par Outstanding |
% | ||||||||||||||
Super senior |
$ | 45,795 | 7.9 | % | $ | | 0.0 | % | $ | 45,795 | 7.1 | % | ||||||||
AAA |
60,557 | 10.5 | % | 2,315 | 3.4 | % | 62,872 | 9.7 | % | |||||||||||
AA |
178,235 | 30.8 | % | 20,525 | 29.9 | % | 198,760 | 30.7 | % | |||||||||||
A |
201,298 | 34.8 | % | 30,202 | 43.9 | % | 231,500 | 35.8 | % | |||||||||||
BBB |
70,158 | 12.1 | % | 13,517 | 19.7 | % | 83,675 | 12.9 | % | |||||||||||
Below investment grade |
21,863 | 3.9 | % | 2,165 | 3.1 | % | 24,028 | 3.8 | % | |||||||||||
Total exposures |
$ | 577,906 | 100.0 | % | $ | 68,724 | 100.0 | % | $ | 646,630 | 100.0 | % | ||||||||
|
As of September 30, 2009 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Public Finance U.S. |
Public Finance Non-U.S. |
Structured Finance U.S. |
Structured Finance Non-U.S. |
Consolidated | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Ratings(1):
|
Net Par Outstanding |
% | Net Par Outstanding |
% | Net Par Outstanding |
% | Net Par Outstanding |
% | Net Par Outstanding |
% | ||||||||||||||||||||||
Super senior |
$ | 25 | 0.0 | % | $ | 2,323 | 5.4 | % | $ | 29,963 | 21.1 | % | $ | 13,484 | 37.1 | % | $ | 45,795 | 7.1 | % | ||||||||||||
AAA |
6,882 | 1.6 | % | 3,545 | 8.2 | % | 40,979 | 28.8 | % | 11,465 | 31.6 | % | 62,871 | 9.7 | % | |||||||||||||||||
AA |
167,617 | 39.4 | % | 2,753 | 6.4 | % | 26,017 | 18.3 | % | 2,373 | 6.5 | % | 198,760 | 30.7 | % | |||||||||||||||||
A |
208,257 | 49.0 | % | 11,978 | 27.7 | % | 8,602 | 6.0 | % | 2,664 | 7.3 | % | 231,501 | 35.8 | % | |||||||||||||||||
BBB |
38,952 | 9.2 | % | 22,244 | 51.5 | % | 17,153 | 12.1 | % | 5,326 | 14.7 | % | 83,675 | 12.9 | % | |||||||||||||||||
Below investment grade |
3,152 | 0.7 | % | 384 | 0.9 | % | 19,469 | 13.7 | % | 1,023 | 2.8 | % | 24,028 | 3.8 | % | |||||||||||||||||
Total exposures |
$ | 424,885 | 100.0 | % | $ | 43,227 | 100.0 | % | $ | 142,183 | 100.0 | % | $ | 36,335 | 100.0 | % | $ | 646,630 | 100.0 | % | ||||||||||||
- (1)
- Assured's internal rating. Assured's scale is comparable to that of the nationally recognized rating agencies. The super senior category, which is not generally used by rating agencies, is used by the Company in instances where Assured's AAA-rated exposure has additional credit enhancement due to either (1) the existence of another security rated AAA that is subordinated to Assured's exposure or (2) Assured's exposure benefits from a different form of credit enhancement that would pay any claims first in the event that any of the exposures incurs a loss and such credit enhancement, in management's opinion, causes Assured's attachment point to be materially above the AAA attachment point.
20
ASSURED GUARANTY LTD.
FINANCIAL GUARANTY PROFILE (Continued)
As of September 30, 2009
(dollars in millions)
Geographic Distribution of Financial Guaranty Portfolio as of September 30, 2009
|
Net Par Outstanding |
% of Total | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
U.S.: |
||||||||
California |
$ | 59,822 | 9.3 | % | ||||
New York |
35,457 | 5.5 | % | |||||
Texas |
30,778 | 4.8 | % | |||||
Pennsylvania |
28,952 | 4.5 | % | |||||
Florida |
25,468 | 3.9 | % | |||||
Illinois |
25,320 | 3.9 | % | |||||
New Jersey |
18,662 | 2.9 | % | |||||
Michigan |
17,133 | 2.6 | % | |||||
Washington |
13,422 | 2.1 | % | |||||
Massachusetts |
13,347 | 2.1 | % | |||||
Other states |
156,524 | 24.2 | % | |||||
Structured finance (multiple states) |
142,183 | 21.9 | % | |||||
Total U.S. |
567,068 | 87.7 | % | |||||
Non-U.S.: |
||||||||
United Kingdom |
31,553 | 4.9 | % | |||||
Australia |
8,795 | 1.4 | % | |||||
Canada |
5,052 | 0.8 | % | |||||
France |
2,595 | 0.4 | % | |||||
Italy |
2,582 | 0.4 | % | |||||
Other |
28,985 | 4.4 | % | |||||
Total non-U.S. |
79,562 | 12.3 | % | |||||
Total exposures |
$ |
646,630 |
100.0 |
% |
||||
21
ASSURED GUARANTY LTD.
POOLED CORPORATE OBLIGATIONS PROFILE
(dollars in millions)
Distribution of Financial Guaranty Direct Pooled Corporate Obligations by Ratings as of September 30, 2009
Ratings(1):
|
Net Par Outstanding |
% of Total | Avg. Initial Credit Enhancement(2) |
Avg. Current Enhancement(2) |
||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Super Senior |
$ | 33,413 | 34.1 | % | 29.0 | % | 26.4 | % | ||||||
AAA |
42,590 | 43.4 | % | 29.3 | % | 26.8 | % | |||||||
AA |
11,971 | 12.2 | % | 34.5 | % | 29.5 | % | |||||||
A |
2,410 | 2.5 | % | 33.0 | % | 33.5 | % | |||||||
BBB |
5,650 | 5.8 | % | 38.1 | % | 29.8 | % | |||||||
Below investment grade |
1,950 | 2.0 | % | 44.1 | % | 31.2 | % | |||||||
Total exposures |
$ | 97,984 | 100.0 | % | 30.7 | % | 27.4 | % | ||||||
Distribution of Financial Guaranty Direct Pooled Corporate Obligations by Year Insured as of September 30, 2009
Year insured:
|
Net Par Outstanding |
% of Total | Avg. Initial Credit Enhancement(2) |
Avg. Current Enhancement(2) |
|||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2004 and prior |
$ | 15,412 | 15.7 | % | 23.7 | % | 21.7 | % | |||||
2005 |
20,667 | 21.1 | % | 29.0 | % | 25.7 | % | ||||||
2006 |
20,756 | 21.2 | % | 33.0 | % | 28.1 | % | ||||||
2007 |
38,570 | 39.4 | % | 33.0 | % | 29.6 | % | ||||||
2008 |
2,579 | 2.6 | % | 35.5 | % | 37.3 | % | ||||||
2009 |
| | | | |||||||||
|
$ | 97,984 | 100.0 | % | 30.7 | % | 27.4 | % | |||||
22
ASSURED GUARANTY LTD.
POOLED CORPORATE OBLIGATIONS PROFILE (Continued)
(dollars in millions)
Distribution of Financial Guaranty Direct Pooled Corporate Obligations by Asset Class as of September 30, 2009
Asset class:
|
Net Par Outstanding |
% of Total | Avg. Initial Credit Enhancement(2) |
Avg. Current Enhancement(2) |
Avg. Rating(1) |
|||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Synthetic high yield pooled corporate |
$ | 11,313 | 11.5 | % | 36.7 | % | 31.9 | % | AAA | |||||
Synthetic investment grade pooled corporate |
14,796 | 15.1 | % | 19.2 | % | 17.8 | % | Super Senior | ||||||
CLOs/CBOs |
57,793 | 59.0 | % | 30.3 | % | 26.3 | % | AAA | ||||||
Market Value CDOs of corporate |
5,860 | 6.0 | % | 32.2 | % | 40.0 | % | AAA | ||||||
Trust Preferredbanks and insurance |
3,810 | 3.9 | % | 47.7 | % | 38.2 | % | BBB+ | ||||||
Trust PreferredUS Mortgage and REITs(3) |
2,419 | 2.5 | % | 50.1 | % | 42.5 | % | BB+ | ||||||
Trust PreferredEuropean Mortgage and REITs |
1,069 | 1.1 | % | 36.9 | % | 31.3 | % | BBB- | ||||||
CDO of CDOs (corporate)(4) |
48 | 0.0 | % | 24.4 | % | 16.7 | % | A- | ||||||
Other Pooled Corporate |
876 | 0.9 | % | N/A | N/A | A- | ||||||||
|
$ | 97,984 | 100.0 | % | 30.7 | % | 27.4 | % | AAA | |||||
- (1)
- Assured's
internal rating. Assured's scale is comparable to that of the nationally recognized rating agencies. The super senior category, which is not
generally used by rating agencies, is used by the Company in instances where Assured's AAA-rated exposure has additional credit enhancement due to either (1) the existence of
another security rated AAA that is subordinated to Assured's exposure or (2) Assured's exposure benefits from a different form of credit enhancement that would pay any claims first in the event
that any of the exposures incurs a loss and such credit enhancement, in management's opinion, causes Assured's attachment point to be materially above the AAA attachment point.
- (2)
- "Average
Credit Enhancement" is intended to provide a measure of the amount of equity and/or subordinated tranches that are junior in the capital structure
to Assured's exposure, expressed as a percentage of the total transaction size, and reflects any reduction of that credit support resulting from defaults or other factors. For transactions where
excess spread may be available to absorb certain losses, the amounts shown above do not include any benefit from excess spread. The calculation methodologies differ for the various asset classes to
reflect differences in transaction structures in order to provide a measure that management believes is comparable across asset classes. Data is obtained from third-party sources such as trustee
reports and may be subject to misstatement or correction.
- (3)
- REITs
are real estate investment trusts.
- (4)
- CDOs are collateralized debt obligations.
23
ASSURED GUARANTY LTD.
CONSOLIDATED U.S. RESIDENTIAL MORTGAGE-BACKED SECURITIES ("RMBS") PROFILE
(dollars in millions)
Distribution of U.S. RMBS by Rating(1) and by Segment as of September 30, 2009
Ratings(1):
|
Direct Net Par Outstanding |
% | Reinsurance Net Par Outstanding |
% | Total Net Par Outstanding |
% | |||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Super senior |
$ | 545 | 1.8 | % | $ | | | $ | 545 | 1.8 | % | ||||||||
AAA |
3,220 | 10.8 | % | 25 | 5.5 | % | 3,244 | 10.8 | % | ||||||||||
AA |
2,336 | 7.9 | % | 46 | 10.4 | % | 2,383 | 7.9 | % | ||||||||||
A |
2,190 | 7.4 | % | 80 | 18.1 | % | 2,271 | 7.5 | % | ||||||||||
BBB |
4,856 | 16.3 | % | 86 | 19.3 | % | 4,942 | 16.4 | % | ||||||||||
Below investment grade |
16,566 | 55.8 | % | 207 | 46.6 | % | 16,773 | 55.6 | % | ||||||||||
|
$ | 29,714 | 100.0 | % | $ | 444 | 100.0 | % | $ | 30,157 | 100.0 | % | |||||||
Distribution of U.S. RMBS by Rating(1), December 31, 2006 to September 30, 2009
Ratings(1):
|
12/31/06 | 12/31/07 | 12/31/08 | 09/30/09 | |||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Super senior |
41.4 | % | 35.4 | % | 34.7 | % | 1.8 | % | |||||
AAA |
23.1 | % | 33.9 | % | 9.1 | % | 10.8 | % | |||||
AA |
0.3 | % | 5.0 | % | 8.5 | % | 7.9 | % | |||||
A |
9.2 | % | 6.4 | % | 13.4 | % | 7.5 | % | |||||
BBB |
25.1 | % | 9.1 | % | 10.4 | % | 16.4 | % | |||||
Below investment grade |
0.9 | % | 10.1 | % | 24.0 | % | 55.6 | % | |||||
|
100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | |||||
Distribution of U.S. RMBS by Rating(1) and Type of Exposure as of September 30, 2009
Year insured:
|
Prime First Lien(2) |
Closed End Seconds |
HELOC | Alt-A First Lien |
Alt-A Option ARMs |
Subprime First Lien |
NIMs(3) | Total Net Par Outstanding |
||||||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Super senior |
$ | | $ | | $ | | $ | | $ | | $ | 545 | $ | | $ | 545 | ||||||||||
AAA |
179 | 0 | 488 | 170 | 165 | 2,243 | | 3,244 | ||||||||||||||||||
AA |
37 | 46 | 546 | 261 | 21 | 1,471 | | 2,383 | ||||||||||||||||||
A |
53 | 2 | 7 | 1,062 | 56 | 1,092 | | 2,271 | ||||||||||||||||||
BBB |
109 | | 442 | 1,706 | 260 | 2,394 | 31 | 4,942 | ||||||||||||||||||
Below investment grade |
639 | 1,310 | 4,795 | 4,076 | 3,500 | 2,283 | 170 | 16,773 | ||||||||||||||||||
Total exposures |
$ | 1,016 | $ | 1,359 | $ | 6,279 | $ | 7,275 | $ | 4,000 | $ | 10,027 | $ | 201 | $ | 30,157 | ||||||||||
24
ASSURED GUARANTY LTD.
CONSOLIDATED U.S. RESIDENTIAL MORTGAGE-BACKED SECURITIES ("RMBS") PROFILE (Continued)
(dollars in millions)
Distribution of U.S. RMBS by Year Insured and Type of Exposure as of September 30, 2009
Year insured:
|
Prime First Lien(2) |
Closed End Seconds |
HELOC | Alt-A First Lien |
Alt-A Option ARMs |
Subprime First Lien |
NIMs | Total Net Par Outstanding |
||||||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2004 and prior |
$ | 81 | $ | 3 | $ | 414 | $ | 151 | $ | 64 | $ | 1,781 | $ | 1 | $ | 2,496 | ||||||||||
2005 |
186 | | 1,336 | 780 | 189 | 486 | 15 | 2,992 | ||||||||||||||||||
2006 |
166 | 472 | 2,080 | 568 | 1,051 | 4,406 | 87 | 8,831 | ||||||||||||||||||
2007 |
583 | 884 | 2,449 | 3,466 | 2,547 | 3,257 | 98 | 13,284 | ||||||||||||||||||
2008 |
| | | 2,310 | 149 | 96 | | 2,555 | ||||||||||||||||||
2009 |
| | | | | | | | ||||||||||||||||||
Total exposures |
$ | 1,016 | $ | 1,359 | $ | 6,279 | $ | 7,275 | $ | 4,000 | $ | 10,027 | $ | 201 | $ | 30,157 | ||||||||||
- (1)
- Assured's
internal rating. Assured's scale is comparable to that of the nationally recognized rating agencies. The super senior category, which is not
generally used by rating agencies, is used by the Company in instances where Assured's AAA-rated exposure has additional credit enhancement due to either (1) the existence of
another security rated AAA that is subordinated to Assured's exposure or (2) Assured's exposure benefits from a different form of credit enhancement that would pay any claims first in the event
that any of the exposures incurs a loss and such credit enhancement, in management's opinion, causes Assured's attachment point to be materially above the AAA attachment point.
- (2)
- Includes
primarily Prime First Lien plus an insignificant amount of other miscellaneous MBS transactions.
- (3)
- NIMs are net interest margin securities.
Distribution of U.S. RMBS by Rating(1) and Year Insured as of September 30, 2009
Year insured:
|
Super Senior |
AAA Rated |
AA Rated |
A Rated |
BBB Rated |
BIG Rated |
Total | |||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2004 and prior |
$ | | $ | 1,584 | $ | 116 | $ | 227 | $ | 148 | $ | 421 | $ | 2,496 | ||||||||
2005 |
| 339 | 103 | 211 | 641 | 1,697 | 2,992 | |||||||||||||||
2006 |
545 | 994 | 1,100 | 917 | 1,377 | 3,898 | 8,831 | |||||||||||||||
2007 |
| 327 | 818 | 13 | 1,379 | 10,747 | 13,284 | |||||||||||||||
2008 |
| | 246 | 902 | 1,396 | 10 | 2,555 | |||||||||||||||
2009 |
| | | | | | | |||||||||||||||
|
$ | 545 | $ | 3,244 | $ | 2,383 | $ | 2,271 | $ | 4,942 | $ | 16,773 | $ | 30,157 | ||||||||
% of total |
1.8 | % | 10.8 | % | 7.9 | % | 7.5 | % | 16.4 | % | 55.6 | % | 100.0 | % |
Distribution of U.S. Home Equity Line of Credit ("HELOC") RMBS by Rating(1) and Year Insured as of September 30, 2009
Year insured:
|
Super Senior |
AAA Rated |
AA Rated |
A Rated |
BBB Rated |
BIG Rated |
Total | |||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2004 and prior |
$ | | $ | 40 | $ | 6 | $ | 5 | $ | 47 | $ | 317 | $ | 414 | ||||||||
2005 |
| 77 | | 2 | 161 | 1,095 | 1,336 | |||||||||||||||
2006 |
| 56 | | | 234 | 1,790 | 2,080 | |||||||||||||||
2007 |
| 315 | 541 | | | 1,593 | 2,449 | |||||||||||||||
2008 |
| | | | | | | |||||||||||||||
2009 |
| | | | | | | |||||||||||||||
|
$ | | $ | 488 | $ | 546 | $ | 7 | $ | 442 | $ | 4,795 | $ | 6,279 | ||||||||
% of total |
0.0 | % | 7.8 | % | 8.7 | % | 0.1 | % | 7.0 | % | 76.4 | % | 100.0 | % |
25
ASSURED GUARANTY LTD.
CONSOLIDATED U.S. RESIDENTIAL MORTGAGE-BACKED SECURITIES ("RMBS") PROFILE (Continued)
(dollars in millions)
Distribution of U.S. Closed End Seconds ("CES") RMBS by Rating(1) and Year Insured as of September 30, 2009
Year insured:
|
Super Senior |
AAA Rated |
AA Rated |
A Rated |
BBB Rated |
BIG Rated |
Total | |||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2004 and prior |
$ | | $ | 0 | $ | | $ | 2 | $ | | $ | | $ | 3 | ||||||||
2005 |
| | | | | | ||||||||||||||||
2006 |
| | | | | 472 | 472 | |||||||||||||||
2007 |
| | 46 | | | 838 | 884 | |||||||||||||||
2008 |
| | | | | | | |||||||||||||||
2009 |
| | | | | | | |||||||||||||||
|
$ | | $ | 0 | $ | 46 | $ | 2 | $ | | $ | 1,310 | $ | 1,359 | ||||||||
% of total |
0.0 | % | 0.0 | % | 3.4 | % | 0.2 | % | 0.0 | % | 96.4 | % | 100.0 | % |
- (1)
- Assured's internal rating. Assured's scale is comparable to that of the nationally recognized rating agencies. The super senior category, which is not generally used by rating agencies, is used by the Company in instances where Assured's AAA-rated exposure has additional credit enhancement due to either (1) the existence of another security rated AAA that is subordinated to Assured's exposure or (2) Assured's exposure benefits from a different form of credit enhancement that would pay any claims first in the event that any of the exposures incurs a loss and such credit enhancement, in management's opinion, causes Assured's attachment point to be materially above the AAA attachment point.
Distribution of U.S. Alternative-A ("Alt-A") First Lien RMBS by Rating(1) and Year Insured as of September 30, 2009
Year insured:
|
Super Senior |
AAA Rated |
AA Rated |
A Rated |
BBB Rated |
BIG Rated |
Total | |||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2004 and prior |
$ | | $ | 90 | $ | 1 | $ | 26 | $ | 20 | $ | 15 | $ | 151 | ||||||||
2005 |
| 80 | 15 | 134 | 161 | 391 | 780 | |||||||||||||||
2006 |
| | | | | 568 | 568 | |||||||||||||||
2007 |
| | | | 364 | 3,102 | 3,466 | |||||||||||||||
2008 |
| | 246 | 902 | 1,162 | | 2,310 | |||||||||||||||
2009 |
| | | | | | | |||||||||||||||
|
$ | | $ | 170 | $ | 261 | $ | 1,062 | $ | 1,706 | $ | 4,076 | $ | 7,275 | ||||||||
% of total |
0.0 | % | 2.3 | % | 3.6 | % | 14.6 | % | 23.5 | % | 56.0 | % | 100.0 | % |
26
ASSURED GUARANTY LTD.
CONSOLIDATED U.S. RESIDENTIAL MORTGAGE-BACKED SECURITIES ("RMBS") PROFILE (Continued)
(dollars in millions)
Distribution of U.S. Alt-A Option Adjustable Rate Mortgage ("ARM") RMBS by Rating(1) and Year Insured as of September 30, 2009
Year insured:
|
Super Senior |
AAA Rated |
AA Rated |
A Rated |
BBB Rated |
BIG Rated |
Total | |||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2004 and prior |
$ | | $ | | $ | 12 | $ | 52 | $ | | $ | | $ | 64 | ||||||||
2005 |
| 3 | | 3 | 38 | 144 | 189 | |||||||||||||||
2006 |
| 160 | | | 3 | 888 | 1,051 | |||||||||||||||
2007 |
| 1 | 9 | | 70 | 2,467 | 2,547 | |||||||||||||||
2008 |
| | | | 149 | | 149 | |||||||||||||||
2009 |
| | | | | | | |||||||||||||||
|
$ | | $ | 165 | $ | 21 | $ | 56 | $ | 260 | $ | 3,500 | $ | 4,000 | ||||||||
% of total |
0.0 | % | 4.1 | % | 0.5 | % | 1.4 | % | 6.5 | % | 87.5 | % | 100.0 | % |
Distribution of U.S. Subprime First Lien RMBS by Rating(1) and Year Insured as of September 30, 2009
Year insured:
|
Super Senior |
AAA Rated |
AA Rated |
A Rated |
BBB Rated |
BIG Rated |
Total | |||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2004 and prior |
$ | | $ | 1,437 | $ | 60 | $ | 115 | $ | 82 | $ | 88 | $ | 1,781 | ||||||||
2005 |
| 180 | 88 | 46 | 172 | | 486 | |||||||||||||||
2006 |
545 | 616 | 1,100 | 917 | 1,140 | 89 | 4,406 | |||||||||||||||
2007 |
| 11 | 223 | 13 | 914 | 2,096 | 3,257 | |||||||||||||||
2008 |
| | | | 86 | 10 | 96 | |||||||||||||||
2009 |
| | | | | | | |||||||||||||||
|
$ | 545 | $ | 2,243 | $ | 1,471 | $ | 1,092 | $ | 2,394 | $ | 2,283 | $ | 10,027 | ||||||||
% of total |
5.4 | % | 22.4 | % | 14.7 | % | 10.9 | % | 23.9 | % | 22.8 | % | 100.0 | % |
- (1)
- Assured's internal rating. Assured's scale is comparable to that of the nationally recognized rating agencies. The super senior category, which is not generally used by rating agencies, is used by the Company in instances where Assured's AAA-rated exposure has additional credit enhancement due to either (1) the existence of another security rated AAA that is subordinated to Assured's exposure or (2) Assured's exposure benefits from a different form of credit enhancement that would pay any claims first in the event that any of the exposures incurs a loss and such credit enhancement, in management's opinion, causes Assured's attachment point to be materially above the AAA attachment point.
27
ASSURED GUARANTY LTD.
FINANCIAL GUARANTY DIRECT U.S. RMBS PROFILE
(dollars in millions)
Distribution of Financial Guaranty Direct U.S. RMBS by Rating(1) and Type of Exposure as of September 30, 2009
Ratings(1):
|
Prime First Lien(2) |
Closed End Seconds |
HELOC | Alt-A First Lien |
Alt-A Option ARMs |
Subprime First Lien |
NIMs | Total Net Par Outstanding |
|||||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Super senior |
$ | | $ | | $ | | $ | | $ | | $ | 545 | $ | | $ | 545 | |||||||||
AAA |
167 | | 488 | 167 | 161 | 2,237 | | 3,220 | |||||||||||||||||
AA |
3 | 46 | 541 | 261 | 21 | 1,466 | | 2,336 | |||||||||||||||||
A |
27 | | | 1,036 | 51 | 1,077 | | 2,190 | |||||||||||||||||
BBB |
108 | | 385 | 1,704 | 257 | 2,372 | 31 | 4,856 | |||||||||||||||||
Below investment grade |
635 | 1,297 | 4,658 | 4,071 | 3,494 | 2,242 | 170 | 16,566 | |||||||||||||||||
Total exposures |
$ | 939 | $ | 1,343 | $ | 6,072 | $ | 7,239 | $ | 3,983 | $ | 9,937 | $ | 201 | $ | 29,714 | |||||||||
Distribution of Financial Guaranty Direct U.S. RMBS by Year Insured as of September 30, 2009
Year insured:
|
Prime First Lien(2) |
Closed End Seconds |
HELOC | Alt-A First Lien |
Alt-A Option ARMs |
Subprime First Lien |
NIMs | Total Net Par Outstanding |
|||||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2004 and prior |
$ | 8 | $ | | $ | 354 | $ | 119 | $ | 63 | $ | 1,710 | $ | 1 | $ | 2,255 | |||||||||
2005 |
186 | | 1,284 | 779 | 181 | 486 | 15 | 2,930 | |||||||||||||||||
2006 |
162 | 459 | 1,985 | 565 | 1,043 | 4,398 | 87 | 8,700 | |||||||||||||||||
2007 |
583 | 884 | 2,449 | 3,466 | 2,547 | 3,257 | 98 | 13,284 | |||||||||||||||||
2008 |
| | | 2,310 | 149 | 86 | | 2,545 | |||||||||||||||||
2009 |
| | | | | | | | |||||||||||||||||
|
$ | 939 | $ | 1,343 | $ | 6,072 | $ | 7,239 | $ | 3,983 | $ | 9,937 | $ | 201 | $ | 29,714 | |||||||||
Distribution of Financial Guaranty Direct U.S. RMBS by Year Issued as of September 30, 2009
Year issued:
|
Prime First Lien(2) |
Closed End Seconds |
HELOC | Alt-A First Lien |
Alt-A Option ARMs |
Subprime First Lien |
NIMs | Total Net Par Outstanding |
|||||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2004 and prior |
$ | 8 | $ | | $ | 354 | $ | 119 | $ | 63 | $ | 1,710 | $ | 1 | $ | 2,255 | |||||||||
2005 |
186 | | 1,284 | 779 | 181 | 4,835 | 15 | 7,279 | |||||||||||||||||
2006 |
162 | 459 | 2,078 | 879 | 1,043 | 548 | 87 | 5,257 | |||||||||||||||||
2007 |
583 | 884 | 2,356 | 5,461 | 2,696 | 2,758 | 98 | 14,837 | |||||||||||||||||
2008 |
| | | | | 86 | | 86 | |||||||||||||||||
2009 |
| | | | | | | | |||||||||||||||||
|
$ | 939 | $ | 1,343 | $ | 6,072 | $ | 7,239 | $ | 3,983 | $ | 9,937 | $ | 201 | $ | 29,714 | |||||||||
- (1)
- Assured's
internal rating. Assured's scale is comparable to that of the nationally recognized rating agencies. The super senior category, which is not
generally used by rating agencies, is used by the Company in instances where Assured's AAA-rated exposure has additional credit enhancement due to either (1) the existence of
another security rated AAA that is subordinated to Assured's exposure or (2) Assured's exposure benefits from a different form of credit enhancement that would pay any claims first in the event
that any of the exposures incurs a loss and such credit enhancement, in management's opinion, causes Assured's attachment point to be materially above the AAA attachment point.
- (2)
- Includes primarily Prime First Lien plus an insignificant amount of other miscellaneous MBS transactions
28
ASSURED GUARANTY LTD.
FINANCIAL GUARANTY DIRECT U.S. RMBS PROFILE (Continued)
(dollars in millions)
Distribution of Financial Guaranty Direct U.S. RMBS Net Par Outstanding by Rating(1) and Year Issued as of September 30, 2009
Year issued:
|
Super Senior |
AAA Rated |
AA Rated |
A Rated |
BBB Rated |
BIG Rated |
Total | |||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2004 and prior |
$ | | $ | 1,563 | $ | 69 | $ | 153 | $ | 83 | $ | 388 | $ | 2,255 | ||||||||
2005 |
545 | 952 | 1,203 | 1,123 | 1,717 | 1,739 | 7,279 | |||||||||||||||
2006 |
| 389 | 246 | 13 | 543 | 4,066 | 5,257 | |||||||||||||||
2007 |
| 316 | 818 | 902 | 2,427 | 10,373 | 14,837 | |||||||||||||||
2008 |
| | | | 86 | | 86 | |||||||||||||||
2009 |
| | | | | | | |||||||||||||||
|
$ | 545 | $ | 3,220 | $ | 2,336 | $ | 2,190 | $ | 4,856 | $ | 16,566 | $ | 29,714 | ||||||||
% of total |
1.8 | % | 10.8 | % | 7.9 | % | 7.4 | % | 16.3 | % | 55.8 | % | 100.0 | % |
Distribution of Financial Guaranty Direct U.S. RMBS Net Par Outstanding by Rating(1) and Year Insured as of September 30, 2009
Year insured:
|
Super Senior |
AAA Rated |
AA Rated |
A Rated |
BBB Rated |
BIG Rated |
Total | |||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2004 and prior |
$ | | $ | 1,563 | $ | 69 | $ | 153 | $ | 83 | $ | 388 | $ | 2,255 | ||||||||
2005 |
| 336 | 103 | 205 | 626 | 1,659 | 2,930 | |||||||||||||||
2006 |
545 | 994 | 1,100 | 917 | 1,371 | 3,772 | 8,700 | |||||||||||||||
2007 |
| 327 | 818 | 13 | 1,379 | 10,747 | 13,284 | |||||||||||||||
2008 |
| | 246 | 902 | 1,396 | | 2,545 | |||||||||||||||
2009 |
| | | | | | | |||||||||||||||
|
$ | 545 | $ | 3,220 | $ | 2,336 | $ | 2,190 | $ | 4,856 | $ | 16,566 | $ | 29,714 | ||||||||
% of total |
1.8 | % | 10.8 | % | 7.9 | % | 7.4 | % | 16.3 | % | 55.8 | % | 100.0 | % |
- (1)
- Assured's internal rating. Assured's scale is comparable to that of the nationally recognized rating agencies. The super senior category, which is not generally used by rating agencies, is used by the Company in instances where Assured's AAA-rated exposure has additional credit enhancement due to either (1) the existence of another security rated AAA that is subordinated to Assured's exposure or (2) Assured's exposure benefits from a different form of credit enhancement that would pay any claims first in the event that any of the exposures incurs a loss and such credit enhancement, in management's opinion, causes Assured's attachment point to be materially above the AAA attachment point.
29
ASSURED GUARANTY LTD.
FINANCIAL GUARANTY DIRECT U.S. RMBS PROFILE (Continued)
(dollars in millions)
Distribution of Financial Guaranty Direct U.S. Mortgage-Backed Securities Issued January 1, 2005 or Later by Exposure Type, Average Pool Factor, Subordination, Cumulative Losses and 60+ Day Delinquencies as of September 30, 2009(1)
U.S. Prime First Lien(2)
Year issued:
|
Net Par Outstanding |
Pool Factor(3) |
Subordination(4) | Cumulative Losses(5) |
60+ Day Delinquencies(6) |
Number of Transactions |
|||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2005 |
$ | 186 | 65.9 | % | 5.4 | % | 5.5 | % | 0.4 | % | 6 | ||||||||
2006 |
162 | 73.0 | % | 7.6 | % | 0.0 | % | 9.9 | % | 1 | |||||||||
2007 |
583 | 79.1 | % | 11.1 | % | 9.5 | % | 0.9 | % | 1 | |||||||||
2008 |
| | | | | | |||||||||||||
2009 |
| | | | | | |||||||||||||
|
$ | 931 | 75.9 | % | 9.7 | % | 8.6 | % | 0.8 | % | 8 | ||||||||
U.S. CES
Year issued:
|
Net Par Outstanding |
Pool Factor(3) |
Subordination(4) | Cumulative Losses(5) |
60+ Day Delinquencies(6) |
Number of Transactions |
|||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2005 |
$ | | | | | | | ||||||||||||
2006 |
459 | 29.0 | % | (68.4 | )% | 16.1 | % | 10.6 | % | 2 | |||||||||
2007 |
884 | 39.4 | % | (16.9 | )% | 15.7 | % | 15.3 | % | 10 | |||||||||
2008 |
| | | | | | |||||||||||||
2009 |
| | | | | | |||||||||||||
|
$ | 1,343 | 35.8 | % | (34.5 | )% | 15.8 | % | 13.7 | % | 12 | ||||||||
U.S. HELOC
Year issued:
|
Net Par Outstanding |
Pool Factor(3) |
Subordination(4) | Cumulative Losses(5) |
60+ Day Delinquencies(6) |
Number of Transactions |
|||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2005 |
$ | 1,284 | 26.2 | % | 0.6 | % | 10.1 | % | 11.9 | % | 6 | ||||||||
2006 |
2,078 | 55.3 | % | 0.3 | % | 20.0 | % | 14.4 | % | 8 | |||||||||
2007 |
2,356 | 48.3 | % | 3.8 | % | 19.4 | % | 7.4 | % | 8 | |||||||||
2008 |
| | | | | | |||||||||||||
2009 |
| | | | | | |||||||||||||
|
$ | 5,718 | 45.8 | % | 1.8 | % | 17.5 | % | 11.0 | % | 22 | ||||||||
30
ASSURED GUARANTY LTD.
FINANCIAL GUARANTY DIRECT U.S. RMBS PROFILE (Continued)
(dollars in millions)