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SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION

Washington, D.C. 20549

 

FORM 10-K

 

Annual Report Pursuant to Section 13 or 15(d) of the

Securities Exchange Act of 1934

For the Fiscal Year Ended

Commission File

December 31, 2004

No. 1-13653


AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC.

Incorporated under

IRS Employer I.D.

the Laws of Ohio

No. 31-1544320

   

One East Fourth Street, Cincinnati, Ohio 45202

(513) 579-2121

Securities Registered Pursuant to Section 12(b) of the Act:

 

Name of Each Exchange

Title of Each Class

on which Registered

American Financial Group, Inc.:

 

Common Stock

New York Stock Exchange and

 

Nasdaq National Market

7-1/8% Senior Debentures due December 15, 2007

New York Stock Exchange

7-1/8% Senior Debentures due April 15, 2009

New York Stock Exchange

7-1/8% Senior Debentures due February 3, 2034

New York Stock Exchange

   

Securities Registered Pursuant to Section 12(g) of the Act:  None

Other securities for which reports are submitted pursuant to Section 15(d) of the Act:

        Senior Convertible Notes due June 2, 2033

        Indicate by check mark whether the Registrant (1) has filed all reports required to be filed by Section 13 or 15(d) of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 during the preceding 12 months, and (2) has been subject to such filing requirements for the past 90 days. Yes  X   No      

        Indicate by check mark if disclosure of delinquent filers pursuant to Item 405 of Regulation S-K is not contained herein, and need not be contained, to the best of registrant's knowledge, in definitive proxy or information statements incorporated by reference in Part III of this Form 10-K or any amendment to this Form 10-K.  [X]

        Indicate by check mark whether the registrant is an accelerated filer.  Yes  X   No      

        State the aggregate market value of the voting and non-voting common equity held by non-affiliates computed by reference to the price at which the common equity was last sold, or the average bid and asked price of such common equity, as of the last business day of the registrant's most recently completed second fiscal quarter: $1.4 billion (based upon non-affiliate holdings of 44,477,814 shares and a market price of $30.57 per share at June 30, 2004). Comparable data at March 1, 2005, is $1.5 billion (based on non-affiliate holdings of 46,792,642 shares and a market price of $31.01 per share).

        Indicate the number of shares outstanding of each of the registrant's classes of common stock, as of the latest practicable date: 76,782,663 shares (excluding 9,953,392 shares owned by a subsidiary) as of March 1, 2005.

_____________

Documents Incorporated by Reference:

Proxy Statement for 2005 Annual Meeting of Stockholders (portions of which are incorporated by reference into Part III hereof).


AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC.

INDEX TO ANNUAL REPORT

ON FORM 10-K

 

Page 

Part I

 

  Item  1 - Business:

 

                Introduction

1 

                Property and Casualty Insurance Operations

2 

                Annuity and Life Operations

12 

                Other Companies

16 

                Investment Portfolio

16 

                Regulation

17 

  Item  2 - Properties

19 

  Item  3 - Legal Proceedings

19 

  Item  4 - Submission of Matters to a Vote of Security Holders

(a) 

   
   

Part II

 

  Item  5 - Market for Registrant's Common Equity, Related

 

               Stockholder Matters and Issuer Purchases of

 

               Equity Securities

21 

  Item  6 - Selected Financial Data

22 

  Item  7 - Management's Discussion and Analysis of Financial

 

               Condition and Results of Operations

23 

  Item 7A - Quantitative and Qualitative Disclosures About

 

               Market Risk

44 

  Item  8 - Financial Statements and Supplementary Data

46 

  Item  9 - Changes in and Disagreements with Accountants on

 

               Accounting and Financial Disclosure

(a) 

  Item 9A - Controls and Procedures

47 

  Item 9B - Other Information

(a) 

   

Part III

 

  Item 10 - Directors and Executive Officers of the Registrant

S-1 

  Item 11 - Executive Compensation

S-1 

  Item 12 - Security Ownership of Certain Beneficial Owners

 

               and Management and Related Stockholder Matters

S-1 

  Item 13 - Certain Relationships and Related Transactions

S-1 

  Item 14 - Principal Accountant Fees and Services

S-1 

   
   

Part IV

 

  Item 15 - Exhibits and Financial Statement Schedules

S-1 

   

Signatures

 
   

Index to Exhibits

E-1 

   
   
   

  (a)  The response to this Item is "none".

 




 

AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC.

FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS

 

This Form 10-K, chiefly in Items 1, 3, 5, 7 and 8, contains certain forward-looking statements that are subject to numerous assumptions, risks or uncertainties. The Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 provides a safe harbor for forward-looking statements. Some of the forward-looking statements can be identified by the use of forward-looking words such as "anticipates", "believes", "expects", "estimates", "intends", "plans", "seeks", "could", "may", "should", "will" or the negative version of those words or other comparable terminology. Examples of such forward-looking statements include statements relating to: expectations concerning market and other conditions and their effect on future premiums, revenues, earnings and investment activities; recoverability of asset values; expected losses and the adequacy of reserves for asbestos, environmental pollution and mass tort claims; rate increases; and improved loss experience.

Actual results could differ materially from those contained in or implied by such forward-looking statements for a variety of factors including:

The forward-looking statements herein are made only as of the date of this report. The Company assumes no obligation to publicly update any forward-looking statements.

 

 

PART I

ITEM 1

Business

 

Please refer to "Forward-Looking Statements" following the Index in front of this Form 10-K.

Introduction

American Financial Group, Inc. ("AFG") is a holding company which, through subsidiaries, is engaged primarily in property and casualty insurance, focusing on specialized commercial products for businesses, and in the sale of retirement annuities, life, and supplemental health insurance products. AFG was incorporated as an Ohio corporation in 1997; its predecessor holding company originated in 1955. Its insurance subsidiaries have been operating as far back as the 1800's. Its address is One East Fourth Street, Cincinnati, Ohio 45202; its phone number is (513) 579-2121. SEC filings, news releases, AFG's Code of Ethics applicable to directors, officers and employees and other information may be accessed free of charge through AFG's Internet site at: www.afginc.com.

At March 1, 2005, AFG's Chairman of the Board (Carl H. Lindner) and its Co-CEOs (Carl H. Lindner III and S. Craig Lindner, sons of the Chairman) beneficially owned 14.8%, 7.0% and 7.2% of AFG Common Stock. In addition, another son (Keith E. Lindner) beneficially owned 10.0%.

Transactions Affecting Business Discussion

An AFG majority-owned subsidiary, National Interstate Corporation, issued 3,350,000 of its common shares in a first quarter 2005 initial public offering. National Interstate used $15 million of the $40.6 million in proceeds to repay a loan to Great American Insurance Company ("GAI"), a wholly-owned AFG subsidiary and the balance for general corporate purposes. Following the IPO, AFG owned approximately 54% of National Interstate's common stock.

In the fourth quarter of 2004, AFG completed the sale of Transport Insurance Company, an inactive property and casualty subsidiary with only run-off liabilities, including old asbestos and environmental ("A&E") claims for a pretax loss of $2.3 million on the sale. AFG had recorded a $55 million impairment charge at December 31, 2003, to reduce its investment in Transport to estimated fair value, based on negotiations with potential buyers. Transport's A&E reserves represented approximately one-eighth of AFG's total net A&E reserves at the time of the sale.

In order to simplify its corporate structure and promote easier oversight, analysis and operation of its subsidiaries, AFG merged with two of its subsidiaries, American Financial Corporation ("AFC") and AFC Holding Company with AFC's Series J preferred stock being acquired and retired in exchange for approximately 3.3 million shares of AFG Common Stock (aggregate value of $75 million) in November 2003. As of January 31, 2004, American Premier Underwriters, Inc. ("APU", a wholly-owned subsidiary) paid an extraordinary dividend consisting of approximately two-thirds of its assets, including its insurance subsidiaries, to its immediate parent, APU Holding Company, and retained sufficient assets to enable it to meet its estimated liabilities.

In late 2002 and early 2003, AFG transferred nearly all of its personal lines business (approximately 28% of the property and casualty group's net written premiums) to a newly-formed subsidiary, Infinity Property and Casualty Corporation ("Infinity"). In public offerings in February and December of 2003, AFG sold all the shares of Infinity for a total of $400 million, realizing a net pretax gain of $17.1 million.

1

In connection with the February 2003 sale of Infinity, AFG subsidiaries continue to write certain business for, and fully reinsure it to, Infinity. AFG subsidiaries ceded premiums of $87 million in 2004 and $96 million in 2003 (subsequent to the sale) to Infinity. When GAI sold its Japanese division in 2001 and its commercial lines division in 1998, it had similar arrangements, each of which lasted about three years.

In April 2003, AFG sold subsidiaries that market automobile insurance directly to customers for $32.2 million, realizing a pretax gain of $3.4 million on the sale. These businesses had generated approximately 3% of AFG's net written premiums in 2002.

The businesses discussed above are included in the tables and financial statements herein through their respective disposal dates.

Property and Casualty Insurance Operations

The property and casualty group reports to a single senior executive and is comprised of multiple business units which operate autonomously but with certain central controls and full accountability. The decentralized approach allows each unit the autonomy necessary to respond to local and specialty market conditions while capitalizing on the efficiencies of centralized investment and administrative support functions. AFG continues to focus on growth opportunities in what it believes to be more profitable specialty businesses. AFG's property and casualty insurance operations employ approximately 4,600 persons.

The property and casualty group operates in a highly competitive industry that is affected by many factors which can cause significant fluctuations in its results of operations. The industry has historically been subject to pricing cycles characterized by periods of intense competition and lower premium rates (a "downcycle") followed by periods of reduced competition, reduced underwriting capacity due to lower policyholders' surplus and higher premium rates (an "upcycle"). After being in an extended downcycle during the 1990s, the property and casualty insurance industry experienced significant market firming and price increases in certain specialty markets during the past three years. Rate increases moderated during 2004.

The primary objective of AFG's property and casualty insurance operations is to achieve solid underwriting profitability while providing excellent service to its policyholders. Underwriting profitability is measured by the combined ratio which is a sum of the ratios of underwriting losses, loss adjustment expenses ("LAE"), underwriting expenses and policyholder dividends to premiums. A combined ratio under 100% is indicative of an underwriting profit. The combined ratio does not reflect investment income, other income or federal income taxes.

While many costs included in underwriting may be readily determined (commissions, administrative expenses, and many of the losses on claims reported), the process of determining overall underwriting results is also highly dependent upon the use of estimates in the case of losses incurred or expected but not yet reported or developed. Actuarial procedures and projections are used to obtain "best estimates" of ultimate losses. While the process is imprecise and develops amounts which are subject to change over time, management believes that the liabilities for unpaid losses and loss adjustment expenses are adequate.

AFG's property and casualty group, like many others in the industry, has A&E claims arising in most cases from general liability policies written in years before 1987. The establishment of reserves for such A&E claims presents unique and difficult challenges and is subject to uncertainties significantly greater than those presented by other types of claims.

2

In February 2003, GAI entered into an agreement for the settlement of asbestos-related coverage litigation from claims related to insurance policies issued in the 1970's and 1980's. Management believes that the $123.5 million settlement (GAI has the option to pay in cash or over time with 5.25% interest) with parties related to and known as A.P. Green Industries, Inc. will enhance financial certainty and provide resolution to litigation that represents AFG's largest known asbestos-related claim

and the only such claim that management believes to be material. For a discussion of uncertainties related to A&E claims, see Management's Discussion and Analysis - Uncertainties - "Asbestos and Environmental-related Reserves."

Management's focus on underwriting performance has resulted in a statutory combined ratio averaging 99.6% for the period 2002 to 2004 (or 99.1% excluding a special charge in 2002 related to asbestos and other environmental matters), as compared to 101.5% for the property and casualty industry over the same period (Source: "Best's Review/Preview - Property/Casualty" - January 2005 Edition). AFG believes that its product line diversification and underwriting discipline have contributed to the Company's ability to consistently outperform the industry's underwriting results. Management's philosophy is to refrain from writing business that is not expected to produce an underwriting profit even if it is necessary to limit premium growth to do so.

Generally, while financial data is reported on a statutory basis for insurance regulatory purposes, it is reported in accordance with generally accepted accounting principles ("GAAP") for shareholder and other investment purposes. In general, statutory accounting results in lower capital and surplus and lower net earnings than result from application of GAAP. Major differences include charging policy acquisition costs to expense as incurred rather than spreading the costs over the periods covered by the policies; reporting investment-grade bonds and redeemable preferred stocks at amortized cost; netting of reinsurance recoverables and prepaid reinsurance premiums against the corresponding liability; requiring additional loss reserves; and charging to surplus certain assets, such as furniture and fixtures and agents' balances over 90 days old.

Unless indicated otherwise, the financial information presented for the property and casualty insurance operations herein is presented based on GAAP.

The following table shows (in millions) certain information of AFG's property and casualty insurance operations.

 

2004 

2003 

2002

Statutory Basis

     

Premiums Earned

$ 2,070 

$1,873 

$ 2,372

Admitted Assets

7,328 

6,499 

7,233

Unearned Premiums

1,091 

981 

1,168

Loss and LAE Reserves (net)

3,281 

3,035 

3,607

Capital and Surplus

2,071 

1,814 

1,742

       

GAAP Basis

     

Premiums Earned

$ 2,110 

$1,909 

$ 2,403

Total Assets

10,954 

9,979 

10,927

Unearned Premiums

1,612 

1,595 

1,848

Loss and LAE Reserves (gross)(*)

5,337 

4,909 

5,204

Shareholder's Equity

3,154 

2,884 

3,241

 

(*)  GAAP loss and LAE reserves net of reinsurance recoverable

     were $3.1 billion at December 31, 2004, $2.9 billion at

     December 31, 2003, and $3.4 billion at December 31, 2002.

3

The following table shows independent ratings and 2004 net written premiums (in millions) of AFG's major property and casualty insurance subsidiaries. Such ratings are generally based on concerns of policyholders and agents and are not directed toward the protection of investors. AFG believes that maintaining an S&P rating of at least "A-" is important to compete successfully in certain lines of business.

   

Company                          (Ratings - AM Best/S&P)

Net Written Premiums 

         

Great American Pool(*)

A   

$1,261 

 

Republic Indemnity

A-

A   

339 

 

Mid-Continent

A   

289 

 

American Empire Surplus Lines

A   

148 

 

National Interstate

n/a  

166 

 

Other

   

    26 

 
     

$2,229 

 
         

(*)    The Great American Pool represents approximately 10 subsidiaries.

(n/a)  Not available/not applicable.

 

Performance measures such as underwriting profit or loss and related combined ratios are often used by property and casualty insurers to help users of their financial statements better understand the Company's performance. See Note C - "Segment of Operations" to the financial statements for the reconciliation of AFG's operating profit by significant business segment to the Statement of Earnings.

The following table shows the performance of AFG's property and casualty insurance operations (dollars in millions):

 

2004 

2003 

2002 

       

Gross written premiums (a)

$3,646 

$3,508 

$3,935 

Ceded reinsurance (a)

(1,417)

(1,496)

(1,521)

Net written premiums

$2,229 

$2,012 

$2,414 

       

Net earned premiums

$2,110 

$1,909 

$2,403 

Loss and LAE

1,416 

1,353 

1,783 

Asbestos litigation settlement

-    

-    

30 

Underwriting expenses

   582 

   534 

   614 

Underwriting gain (loss)

$  112 

$   22 

($   24)

       

GAAP ratios:

     

  Loss and LAE ratio

67.2%

70.9%

75.4%

  Underwriting expense ratio

  27.6 

  28.0 

  25.6 

  Combined ratio (b)

  94.8%

  98.9%

 101.0%

       

Statutory ratios:

     

  Loss and LAE ratio

68.5%

72.1%

76.3%

  Underwriting expense ratio

  27.8 

  28.2 

  25.2 

  Combined ratio (b)

  96.3%

 100.3%

 101.5%

       

Industry statutory combined ratio (c)

     

  All lines

97.6%

100.1%

107.4%

  Commercial lines

99.4%

101.9%

107.7%

   

(a)

Excludes the following premiums that were written under special
arrangements on behalf of, and fully reinsured to, Infinity (following
its sale in February) and the purchaser of the Japanese division:
2004 - $91 million; 2003 - $122 million; and 2002 -$173 million.

(b)

The 2004 combined ratios include 1.8 percentage points related to
hurricanes in the Southeastern U.S. The 2003 combined ratios include
2.3 percentage points related to an arbitration decision for GAI's
share of a 1995 property fire and business interruption claim. The
2002 combined ratios include 1.2 percentage points (GAAP) and
1.3 points (statutory) related to the A.P. Green asbestos litigation
settlement.

(c)

Ratios are derived from "Best's Review/Preview - Property/Casualty"
(January 2005 Edition).

   

4

As with other property and casualty insurers, AFG's operating results can be adversely affected by unpredictable catastrophe losses. Certain natural disasters (hurricanes, earthquakes, tornadoes, floods, forest fires, etc.) and other incidents of major loss (explosions, civil disorder, fires, etc.) are classified as catastrophes by industry associations. Losses from these incidents are usually tracked separately from other business of insurers because of their sizable effects on overall operations. AFG generally seeks to reduce its exposure to such events through individual risk selection and the purchase of reinsurance. Total net losses to AFG's insurance operations from catastrophes were $36 million in 2004; $17 million in 2003 and $7 million in 2002. These amounts are included in the tables herein. Catastrophe losses for 2004 include $37 million related to hurricanes in the southeastern United States and $5 million of favorable prior year development.

The Terrorism Risk Insurance Act of 2002 ("TRIA") is to be in effect until the end of 2005 and establishes a temporary Terrorism Risk Insurance Program which requires commercial insurers to offer virtually all policyholders coverage for certain "acts of terrorism" as defined by TRIA. This federal legislation provides that coverage may not materially differ from the terms, amounts, and other coverage limitations applicable to losses arising from occurrences other than terrorism. The federal government provides some stop loss insurance to insurers after an act has been certified by the government as an act of terrorism and after an insurer has paid losses in excess of a deductible. The deductible progresses from 7% to 15% of direct earned premium in each of the three program years. TRIA supersedes state insurance law to the extent that such law is inconsistent with its terms.

AFG incurred no losses due to "acts of terrorism" in 2003 or 2004. For 2005, AFG would have to sustain losses in excess of $400 million to be eligible for the reinsurance under TRIA. AFG believes that it is unlikely that its losses in the event of a terrorist act would be so significant as to exceed the deductible necessary to participate in the federal reinsurance. AFG generally seeks to limit its exposure to catastrophe losses including those arising from terrorist acts. AFG is complying with the obligations of TRIA to offer coverage but continues to review its business with consideration of the price it charges for such coverage, as well as through management of individual risk selection.

Specialty

General  The Specialty group emphasizes the writing of specialized insurance coverage where AFG personnel are experts in particular lines of business or customer groups. The following are examples of such specialty businesses:

Property and Transportation

 
   

  Inland and Ocean Marine

Provides coverage primarily for marine cargo, boat dealers, marina operators/dealers, excursion vessels, builder's risk, contractor's equipment, excess property and motor truck cargo.

   

  Agricultural-related

Provides federally reinsured multi-peril crop (allied lines) insurance covering most perils as well as crop hail, equine mortality and other coverages for full-time operating farms/ranches and agribusiness operations on a nationwide basis.

   

  Commercial Automobile

Markets customized insurance programs for various transportation operations (such as busses and trucks), and a specialized physical damage product for the trucking industry.

5

 

Specialty Casualty

 
   

  Executive and Professional     Liability

Markets coverage for attorneys and for directors and officers of businesses and not-for-profit organizations.

   

  Umbrella and Excess Liability

Provides higher layer liability coverage in excess of primary layers.

   

  Excess and Surplus

Specially designed insurance products offered to those that can't find coverage in standard markets.

   

Specialty Financial

 
   

  Fidelity and Surety Bonds

Provides surety coverage for various types of contractors and public and private corporations and fidelity and crime coverage for government, mercantile and financial institutions.

   

  Collateral Protection

Provides coverage for insurance risk management programs for lending and leasing institutions.

   

California Workers' Compensation

 
   

  Workers' Compensation

Writes coverage for prescribed benefits payable to employees (principally in California) who are injured on the job.

   

Specialization is the key element to the underwriting success of these business units. Each unit has independent management with significant operating autonomy to oversee the important operational functions of its business such as underwriting, pricing, marketing, policy processing and claims service. These specialty businesses are opportunistic and their premium volume will vary based on prevailing market conditions. AFG continually evaluates expansion in existing markets and opportunities in new specialty markets that meet its profitability objectives.

The U.S. geographic distribution of the Specialty group's statutory direct written premiums in 2004 compared to 2000 is shown below. Amounts exclude business written under special arrangements on behalf of, and fully reinsured to, the purchasers of the divisions sold.

 

2004 

2000 

   

2004 

2000 

California

21.2%

25.8%

 

Pennsylvania

2.5%

2.3%

Texas

7.7 

7.7 

 

Missouri

2.2 

*  

Florida

6.0 

4.9 

 

Michigan

2.1 

2.6 

New York

4.5 

5.9 

 

Georgia

2.1 

2.3 

Illinois

4.5 

4.3 

 

Iowa

2.0 

*  

Ohio

2.9 

2.7 

 

Minnesota

2.0 

*  

Oklahoma

2.8 

3.2 

 

Indiana

2.0 

*  

New Jersey

2.8 

3.0 

 

Louisiana

*  

2.0 

       

Other

 32.7 

 33.3 

         

100.0%

100.0%

                                     

(*) less than 2%, included in "Other"

             

6

The following table sets forth a distribution of statutory net written premiums for AFG's Specialty group by NAIC annual statement line for 2004 compared to 2000.

 

2004 

2000 

Other liability

25.3%

20.4%

Workers' compensation

17.8 

21.3 

Inland marine

8.8 

11.8 

Auto liability

8.4 

8.8 

Collateral protection

7.0 

5.4 

Commercial multi-peril

6.5 

8.1 

Auto physical damage

5.9 

4.9 

Fidelity and surety

5.2 

4.8 

Allied lines

5.1 

4.7 

Product liability

3.7 

*  

Ocean marine

2.9 

3.5 

Other

  3.4 

  6.3 

 

100.0%

100.0%

                                     

   

(*) less than 2%, included in "Other"

   
     

The following table shows the performance of AFG's Specialty group insurance operations (dollars in millions):

 

2004 

2003 

2002 

       

Gross written premiums (a):

     

  Property and Transportation

$1,337 

$1,142 

$  886 

  Specialty Casualty

1,453 

1,413 

1,235 

  Specialty Financial

468 

396 

332 

  California Workers' Compensation

380 

290 

229 

  Other

     1 

     2 

    31 

  

$3,639 

$3,243 

$2,713 

       

Net written premiums:

     

  Property and Transportation

$  683 

$  515 

$  413 

  Specialty Casualty

740 

679 

609 

  Specialty Financial

395 

302 

255 

  California Workers' Compensation

339 

271 

219 

  Other

    67 

    87 

    81 

 

$2,224 

$1,854 

$1,577 

       

GAAP combined ratio:

     

  Property and Transportation

80.7%

87.8%

90.1%

  Specialty Casualty

99.8 

98.2 

106.6 

  Specialty Financial

108.9 

108.4 

101.4 

  California Workers' Compensation

89.5 

92.0 

96.4 

Total Specialty GAAP combined ratio

94.1%

 96.0%

 98.4%

Total Specialty statutory combined ratio

95.6%

97.7%

100.1%

       

Industry statutory combined ratio (b)

99.4%

101.9%

107.7%

       

(a)

Excludes the following premiums that were written under special arrangements on behalf of, and fully reinsured to, the purchaser of
the Japanese division: 2004 - $4 million; 2003 - $26 million;
and 2002 - $173 million.

(b)

Represents the commercial industry statutory combined ratio derived from "Best's Review/Preview - Property/Casualty" (January 2005 Edition).

   

Marketing  The Specialty group operations direct their sales efforts primarily through independent property and casualty insurance agents and brokers, although portions are written through employee agents. Independent agents and brokers generally receive a commission on the sale of each policy. Some agents and brokers are eligible for a bonus commission based on the profitability of all of the policies placed with AFG by the broker or agent in a particular year. The Specialty group writes insurance through several thousand agents and brokers and has over 500,000 policies in force.

7

Competition  These businesses compete with other individual insurers, state funds and insurance groups of varying sizes, some of which are mutual insurance companies possessing competitive advantages in that all their profits inure to their policyholders. They also compete with self-insurance plans, captive programs and risk retention groups. Due to the specialty nature of these coverages, competition is based primarily on service to policyholders and agents, specific characteristics of products offered and reputation for claims handling. Price, commissions and profit sharing terms are also important factors. Management believes that sophisticated data analysis for refinement of risk profiles, extensive specialized knowledge and loss prevention service have helped AFG's Specialty group compete successfully.

Personal

The Personal group wrote primarily nonstandard private passenger automobile liability and physical damage insurance, and to a lesser extent, homeowners' insurance. AFG sold 61% of Infinity Property and Casualty Corporation in a February 2003 public offering and its remaining stake in Infinity in December 2003. In April 2003, AFG sold two of its subsidiaries that market automobile insurance directly to customers. The businesses sold in these transactions represented 92% of the Personal group's 2002 net written premiums.

Reinsurance

Consistent with standard practice of most insurance companies, AFG reinsures a portion of its business with other insurance companies and assumes a relatively small amount of business from other insurers. Ceding reinsurance permits diversification of risks and limits the maximum loss arising from large or unusually hazardous risks or catastrophic events. The availability and cost of reinsurance are subject to prevailing market conditions which may affect the volume and profitability of business that is written. AFG is subject to credit risk with respect to its reinsurers, as the ceding of risk to reinsurers generally does not relieve AFG of its liability to its insureds until claims are fully settled.

AFG regularly monitors the financial strength of its reinsurers. This process periodically results in the transfer of risks to more financially secure reinsurers. Substantially all reinsurance is ceded to companies with investment grade or better S&P ratings or is secured by "funds withheld" or other collateral. Under "funds withheld" arrangements, AFG retains ceded premiums to fund ceded losses as they become due from the reinsurer. Excluding Infinity, Mitsui and Ohio Casualty (discussed below), recoverables from the following companies were individually between 5% and 10% of AFG's total reinsurance recoverable (net of payables to reinsurers) at December 31, 2004: American Re-Insurance Company, X.L. Reinsurance America, Inc., Swiss Reinsurance America Corporation, Berkley Insurance Company and General Reinsurance Corporation.

During 2004, AFG negotiated commutations or lump-sum cash settlements totaling $58.3 million with certain of its reinsurance carriers who have experienced deteriorating financial condition. AFG's $28.9 million loss on these commutations represents the differential between the consideration received from the reinsurers and the related reduction of reinsurance recoverable.

8

Reinsurance is provided on one of two bases, facultative or treaty. Facultative reinsurance is generally provided on a risk by risk basis. Individual risks are ceded and assumed based on an offer and acceptance of risk by each party to the transaction. Treaty reinsurance provides for risks meeting prescribed criteria to be automatically ceded and assumed according to contract provisions. The following table presents (by type of coverage) the amount of each loss above the specified retention maximum generally covered by treaty reinsurance programs (in millions):

 

Retention    

Reinsurance    

Coverage

  Maximum    

Coverage(a)    

California Workers' Compensation

$ 1.0    

$149.0    

Other Workers' Compensation

2.0    

48.0    

Commercial Umbrella

4.6    

45.4    

Property - General

2.0    

28.0    

Property - Catastrophe (other than earthquake)

10.0    

110.0    

Property - Catastrophe (earthquake)

10.0    

205.0    

   

(a)

Reinsurance covers substantial portions of losses in excess of retention.

 

However, in general, losses resulting from terrorism are not covered.

   

AFG also purchases facultative reinsurance providing coverage on a risk by risk basis, both pro rata and excess of loss, depending on the risk and available reinsurance markets.

Included in the Balance Sheet caption "recoverables from reinsurers and prepaid reinsurance premiums" were approximately $357 million on paid losses and LAE and $2.2 billion on unpaid losses and LAE at December 31, 2004. These amounts are net of allowances of approximately $36 million for doubtful collection of reinsurance recoverables. The collectibility of a reinsurance balance is based upon the financial condition of a reinsurer as well as individual claim considerations.

Premiums written for reinsurance ceded and assumed are presented in the following table (in millions):

 

2004 

2003 

2002 

Reinsurance ceded

$1,508 

$1,618 

$1,693 

Reinsurance assumed - including

     

  involuntary pools and associations

62 

100 

80 

       

In connection with the transfer of a portion of GAI's personal lines business to Infinity in 2003 and the sales of the Japanese division to Mitsui in 2001 and the commercial lines division to Ohio Casualty in 1998, GAI agreed to issue and renew policies related to the businesses transferred until each purchaser received the required approvals and licensing to begin writing business on their own behalf. The Infinity agreement is effective until January 1, 2006. The Mitsui and Ohio Casualty agreements ended at the end of 2003 and in early 2001, respectively. Under these agreements, GAI cedes 100% of these premiums to the respective purchaser. In 2004, 2003, and 2002, premiums of $91 million, $122 million and $173 million, respectively, were ceded under these agreements.

Loss and Loss Adjustment Expense Reserves

The consolidated financial statements include the estimated liability for unpaid losses and LAE of AFG's insurance subsidiaries. This liability represents estimates of the ultimate net cost of all unpaid losses and LAE and is determined by using case-basis evaluations and actuarial projections. These estimates are subject to the effects of changes in claim amounts and frequency and are periodically reviewed and adjusted as additional information becomes known. In accordance with industry practices, such adjustments are reflected in current year operations. Generally, reserves for reinsurance and involuntary pools and associations are reflected in AFG's results at the amounts reported by those entities.

 

9

The following discussion of insurance reserves includes the reserves of American Premier's subsidiaries for only those periods following its acquisition in 1995. See Note Q to the Financial Statements for an analysis of changes in AFG's estimated liability for losses and LAE, net and gross of reinsurance, over the past three years on a GAAP basis.

The following table presents the development of AFG's liability for losses and LAE, net of reinsurance, on a GAAP basis for the last ten years, excluding reserves of American Premier subsidiaries prior to 1995. The top line of the table shows the estimated liability (in millions) for unpaid losses and LAE recorded at the balance sheet date for the indicated years. The second line shows the re-estimated liability as of December 31, 2004. The remainder of the table presents intervening development as percentages of the initially estimated liability. The development results from additional information and experience in subsequent years. The middle line shows a cumulative deficiency (redundancy) which represents the aggregate percentage increase (decrease) in the liability initially estimated. The lower portion of the table indicates the cumulative amounts paid as of successive periods as a percentage of the original loss reserve liability. For purposes of this table, reserves of businesses sold a re considered paid at the date of sale. For example, the percentage of the December 31, 2002 reserve liability paid in 2003 includes approximately 20 percentage points for reserves of Infinity at its sale date in February 2003.

 

1994  

1995  

1996  

1997  

1998  

1999  

2000  

2001  

2002  

2003  

2004  

Liability for unpaid losses

                     

and loss adjustment expenses:

                     

  As originally estimated

$2,187  

$3,393  

$3,404  

$3,489  

$3,305  

$3,224  

$3,192  

$3,253  

$3,400  

$2,850  

$3,103  

  As re-estimated at

    December 31, 2004

2,572  

3,766  

3,795  

3,846  

3,371  

3,408  

3,609  

3,746  

3,751  

2,990  

N/A  

Liability re-estimated:

  One year later

95.9% 

98.7% 

100.9% 

104.5% 

97.8% 

98.1% 

105.1% 

105.2% 

104.9% 

104.9% 

  Two years later

99.3% 

98.5% 

105.9% 

104.6% 

96.3% 

100.1% 

105.1% 

111.3% 

110.3% 

  Three years later

99.9% 

103.9% 

105.2% 

102.9% 

97.4% 

99.0% 

109.9% 

115.2% 

  Four years later

109.4% 

103.1% 

103.6% 

105.4% 

96.0% 

102.6% 

113.1% 

  Five years later

109.0% 

102.9% 

106.9% 

105.7% 

99.2% 

105.7% 

  Six years later

108.5% 

106.8% 

107.7% 

108.1% 

102.0% 

  Seven years later

115.3% 

107.7% 

109.8% 

110.2% 

  Eight years later

116.4% 

109.6% 

111.5% 

  Nine years later

116.8% 

111.0% 

  Ten years later

117.6% 

Cumulative deficiency

  (redundancy):

    Aggregate

17.6