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SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION

Washington, D.C. 20549

 

FORM 10-K

 

Annual Report Pursuant to Section 13 or 15(d) of the

Securities Exchange Act of 1934

For the Fiscal Year Ended

Commission File

December 31, 2003

No. 1-13653


AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC.

Incorporated under

IRS Employer I.D.

the Laws of Ohio

No. 31-1544320

   

One East Fourth Street, Cincinnati, Ohio 45202

(513) 579-2121

Securities Registered Pursuant to Section 12(b) of the Act:

 

Name of Each Exchange

Title of Each Class

on which Registered

American Financial Group, Inc.:

 

Common Stock

New York Stock Exchange

7-1/8% Senior Debentures due December 15, 2007

New York Stock Exchange

7-1/8% Senior Debentures due April 15, 2009

New York Stock Exchange

7-1/8% Senior Debentures due February 3, 2034

New York Stock Exchange

   

Securities Registered Pursuant to Section 12(g) of the Act:  None

Other securities for which reports are submitted pursuant to Section 15(d) of the Act:

        Senior Convertible Notes due June 2, 2033

        Indicate by check mark whether the Registrant (1) has filed all reports required to be filed by Section 13 or 15(d) of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 during the preceding 12 months, and (2) has been subject to such filing requirements for the past 90 days. Yes  X   No      

        Indicate by check mark if disclosure of delinquent filers pursuant to Item 405 of Regulation S-K is not contained herein, and need not be contained, to the best of registrant's knowledge, in definitive proxy or information statements incorporated by reference in Part III of this Form 10-K or any amendment to this Form 10-K.  [X]

        Indicate by check mark whether the registrant is an accelerated filer.  Yes  X   No      

        State the aggregate market value of the voting and non-voting common equity held by non-affiliates computed by reference to the price at which the common equity was last sold, or the average bid and asked price of such common equity, as of the last business day of the registrant's most recently completed second fiscal quarter: $926.7 million (based upon nonaffiliate holdings of 40,644,434 shares and a market price of $22.80 per share at June 30, 2003). Comparable data at March 1, 2004, is $1,334.4 million (based on nonaffiliate holdings of 44,185,471 shares and a market price of $30.20 per share).

        Indicate the number of shares outstanding of each of the registrant's classes of common stock, as of the latest practicable date: 73,227,778 shares (excluding 9,953,392 shares owned by a subsidiary) as of March 1, 2004.

_____________

Documents Incorporated by Reference:

Proxy Statement for 2004 Annual Meeting of Stockholders (portions of which are incorporated by reference into Part III hereof).


AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC.

INDEX TO ANNUAL REPORT

ON FORM 10-K

 

Page 

Part I

 

  Item  1 - Business:

 

                Introduction

1 

                Property and Casualty Insurance Operations

2 

                Annuity and Life Operations

13 

                Other Companies

17 

                Investment Portfolio

17 

                Foreign Operations

18 

                Regulation

19 

  Item  2 - Properties

20 

  Item  3 - Legal Proceedings

20 

  Item  4 - Submission of Matters to a Vote of Security Holders

(a) 

   
   

Part II

 

  Item  5 - Market for Registrant's Common Equity and Related

 

               Stockholder Matters

22 

  Item  6 - Selected Financial Data

23 

  Item  7 - Management's Discussion and Analysis of Financial

 

               Condition and Results of Operations

24 

  Item 7A - Quantitative and Qualitative Disclosures About

 

               Market Risk

43 

  Item  8 - Financial Statements and Supplementary Data

44 

  Item  9 - Changes in and Disagreements with Accountants on

 

               Accounting and Financial Disclosure

(a) 

  Item 9A - Controls and Procedures

44 

   

Part III

 

  Item 10 - Directors and Executive Officers of the Registrant

44 

  Item 11 - Executive Compensation

44 

  Item 12 - Security Ownership of Certain Beneficial Owners

 

               and Management and Related Stockholder Matters

44 

  Item 13 - Certain Relationships and Related Transactions

44 

  Item 14 - Principal Accountant Fees and Services

44 

   
   

Part IV

 

  Item 15 - Exhibits, Financial Statement Schedules and

 

               Reports on Form 8-K

S-1 

   
   

  (a)  The response to this Item is "none".

 





 

 

AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC.

FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS

 

This Form 10-K, chiefly in Items 1, 3, 5, 7 and 8, contains certain forward-looking statements that are subject to numerous assumptions, risks or uncertainties. The Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 provides a safe harbor for forward-looking statements. Some of the forward-looking statements can be identified by the use of forward-looking words such as "anticipates", "believes", "expects", "estimates", "intends", "plans", "seeks", "could", "may", "should", "will" or the negative version of those words or other comparable terminology. Examples of such forward-looking statements include statements relating to: expectations concerning market and other conditions and their effect on future premiums, revenues, earnings and investment activities; recoverability of asset values; expected losses and the adequacy of reserves for asbestos, environmental pollution and mass tort claims; rate increases, and improved loss experience.

Actual results could differ materially from those contained in or implied by such forward-looking statements for a variety of factors including:

The forward-looking statements herein are made only as of the date of this report. The Company assumes no obligation to publicly update any forward-looking statements.

 

 

PART I

ITEM 1

Business

 

Please refer to "Forward-Looking Statements" following the Index in front of this Form 10-K.

Introduction

American Financial Group, Inc. ("AFG") is a holding company which, through subsidiaries, is engaged primarily in property and casualty insurance, focusing on specialized commercial products for businesses, and in the sale of retirement annuities, life, and supplemental health insurance products. AFG was incorporated as an Ohio corporation in 1997; its predecessor holding company originated in 1955. Its insurance subsidiaries have been operating as far back as the 1800's. Its address is One East Fourth Street, Cincinnati, Ohio 45202; its phone number is (513) 579-2121. SEC filings, news releases and other information may be accessed free of charge through AFG's Internet site at: www.amfnl.com.

At December 31, 2003, Carl H. Lindner, members of his immediate family and trusts for their benefit (collectively the "Lindner Family") beneficially owned approximately 42% of AFG's outstanding voting Common Stock.

Over the years, AFG and its predecessors have owned, operated, and invested in businesses in a variety of industries and geographic areas, culminating in today's group of insurance companies. Generally, AFG's interests have been in the following areas: insurance, savings and loan, leasing, banking, real estate, communications/ entertainment and food distribution. A small number of opportunistic investments have been made in troubled and other undervalued assets.

Recent Transactions

Early in 2003, AFG began an analysis of alternatives to simplify its corporate structure and promote easier oversight, analysis and operation of its subsidiaries. As a result, mergers and a recapitalization were consummated. Committees of independent directors conducted the analyses with the counsel of recognized outside experts and approved each of the transactions. In November, AFG merged with two of its subsidiaries, American Financial Corporation ("AFC") and AFC Holding Company with AFC's Series J preferred stock being acquired and retired in exchange for approximately 3.3 million shares of AFG Common Stock (aggregate value of $75 million). In addition, approximately $170 million in deferred tax liabilities associated with AFC's holding of AFG stock were eliminated. As of January 31, 2004, American Premier Underwriters, Inc. ("APU", a wholly-owned subsidiary) paid an extraordinary dividend consisting of approximately two-thirds of its assets, including its insurance subsidiaries, to its imme diate parent, APU Holding Company, and retained sufficient assets to enable it to meet its estimated liabilities.

In the fourth quarter of 2003, AFG pursued a sale of Transport Insurance Company, an inactive property and casualty subsidiary with only run-off liabilities, including old asbestos and environmental claims. Transport's asbestos and environmental ("A&E") reserves represent approximately 12% of AFG's total net A&E reserves. Although a transaction has not been consummated, AFG recorded a $55 million impairment charge at December 31, 2003, to reduce its investment in Transport to estimated fair value, based on negotiations with potential buyers.

Infinity Property and Casualty Corporation ("Infinity") was incorporated in September 2002 as a wholly-owned subsidiary of AFG. On December 31, 2002, AFG transferred to Infinity the following subsidiaries: Atlanta Casualty Company, Infinity Insurance Company, Leader Insurance Company and Windsor Insurance Company. In exchange, AFG received all of the issued and outstanding shares of Infinity common stock and a $55 million 10-year promissory note (paid off in July 2003). In addition, effective January 1, 2003, Great American Insurance Company ("GAI"), an AFG

1

subsidiary, transferred to Infinity its personal insurance business written through independent agents. In 2002 and 2001, these businesses represented 28% and 35%, respectively, of AFG's property and casualty group's net written premiums. In a February 2003 public offering, AFG sold 61% of Infinity for net proceeds of $186.3 million. In December 2003, AFG sold its remaining shares of Infinity for net proceeds of $214 million. AFG realized a net pretax gain of $17.1 million on the two sales of Infinity stock.

In April 2003, AFG sold subsidiaries that market automobile insurance directly to customers for $32.2 million, realizing a pretax gain of $3.4 million on the sale. These businesses generated approximately 3% of AFG's net written premiums in 2002.

In connection with the February 2003 sale of Infinity, AFG subsidiaries continue to write certain business for, and fully reinsure it to, Infinity. In 2003, AFG subsidiaries ceded $96 million in premiums to Infinity (subsequent to the sale). When GAI sold its Japanese division in 2001 and its commercial lines division in 1998, it had similar arrangements, each of which lasted about three years.

The businesses discussed above are included in the tables and financial statements herein through their respective disposal dates.

Property and Casualty Insurance Operations

Prior to the sale of Infinity and the direct-to-consumer auto businesses in 2003, AFG's property and casualty group was engaged primarily in specialty and private passenger automobile insurance businesses, which were managed as two major business groups: Specialty and Personal. The businesses sold represented nearly all of the Personal group. AFG's remaining Personal lines business generated less than 3% of net written premiums in 2003.

The property and casualty group reports to a single senior executive and is comprised of multiple business units which operate autonomously but with certain strong central controls and full accountability. The decentralized approach allows each unit the autonomy necessary to respond to local and specialty market conditions while capitalizing on the efficiencies of centralized investment and administrative support functions. AFG's property and casualty insurance operations employ approximately 4,400 persons.

The property and casualty group operates in a highly competitive industry that is affected by many factors which can cause significant fluctuations in its results of operations. The industry has historically been subject to pricing cycles characterized by periods of intense competition and lower premium rates (a "downcycle") followed by periods of reduced competition, reduced underwriting capacity due to lower policyholders' surplus and higher premium rates (an "upcycle"). After being in an extended downcycle for over a decade, the property and casualty insurance industry has experienced significant market firming and price increases in certain specialty markets.

The primary objective of AFG's property and casualty insurance operations is to achieve solid underwriting profitability while providing excellent service to its policyholders. Underwriting profitability is measured by the combined ratio which is a sum of the ratios of underwriting losses, loss adjustment expenses ("LAE"), underwriting expenses and policyholder dividends to premiums. When the combined ratio is under 100%, underwriting results are generally considered profitable; when the ratio is over 100%, underwriting results are generally considered unprofitable. The combined ratio does not reflect investment income, other income or federal income taxes.

While many costs included in underwriting may be readily determined (commissions, administrative expenses, and many of the losses on claims reported), the process of determining overall underwriting results is also highly dependent upon the use of estimates in the case of losses incurred or expected but not yet reported or developed. Actuarial procedures and projections are used to obtain "best estimates" which are then included in the overall results. While the process is imprecise and develops amounts which are subject to change over time, AFG's

2

projections, excluding asbestos and environmental ("A&E") claims, have generally been close to the developed ultimate results, as can be seen in the "reserve development triangles" on page 11.

AFG's property and casualty group, like many others in the industry, has A&E claims arising in most cases from general liability policies written in years before 1987. The establishment of reserves for such A&E claims presents unique and difficult challenges and is subject to uncertainties significantly greater than those presented by other types of claims.

In February 2003, GAI entered into an agreement for the settlement of asbestos-related coverage litigation from insurance policies issued in the 1970's and 1980's. Management believes that the $123.5 million settlement (GAI has the option to pay in cash or over time with 5.25% interest) with parties related to and known as A.P. Green Industries, Inc. will enhance financial certainty and provide resolution to litigation that represents AFG's largest known asbestos-related claim and the only such claim that management believes to be material. For a discussion of uncertainties related to A&E claims, see Management's Discussion and Analysis - "Asbestos and Environmental-related Reserves."

Management's focus on underwriting performance has resulted in a statutory combined ratio averaging 105.1% for the period 1999 to 2003 (or 104.0% excluding special charges in 2002 and 2001 related to asbestos and other environmental matters), as compared to 108.2% for the property and casualty industry over the same period (Source: "Best's Review/Preview - Property/Casualty" - January 2004 Edition). AFG believes that its product line diversification and underwriting discipline have contributed to the Company's ability to consistently outperform the industry's underwriting results. Management's philosophy is to refrain from writing business that is not expected to produce an underwriting profit even if it is necessary to limit premium growth to do so.

Generally, while financial data is reported on a statutory basis for insurance regulatory purposes, it is reported in accordance with generally accepted accounting principles ("GAAP") for shareholder and other investment purposes. In general, statutory accounting results in lower capital and surplus and lower net earnings than result from application of GAAP. Major differences include charging policy acquisition costs to expense as incurred rather than spreading the costs over the periods covered by the policies; reporting investment-grade bonds and redeemable preferred stocks at amortized cost; netting of reinsurance recoverables and prepaid reinsurance premiums against the corresponding liability; requiring additional loss reserves; and charging to surplus certain assets, such as furniture and fixtures and agents' balances over 90 days old.

Unless indicated otherwise, the financial information presented for the property and casualty insurance operations herein is presented based on GAAP.

The following table shows (in millions) certain information of AFG's property and casualty insurance operations.

 

2003 

2002

2001

Statutory Basis

     

Premiums Earned

$1,873 

$ 2,372

$ 2,566

Admitted Assets

6,499 

7,233

6,736

Unearned Premiums

981 

1,168

1,158

Loss and LAE Reserves (net)

3,035 

3,607

3,539

Capital and Surplus

1,814 

1,742

1,669

       

GAAP Basis

     

Premiums Earned

$1,909 

$ 2,403

$ 2,594

Total Assets

9,979 

10,927

10,007

Unearned Premiums

1,595 

1,848

1,641

Loss and LAE Reserves (gross)(*)

4,909 

5,204

4,778

Shareholder's Equity

2,884 

3,241

3,288

 

(*)  GAAP loss and LAE reserves net of reinsurance recoverable

     were $2.9 billion at December 31, 2003, $3.4 billion at

     December 31, 2002, and $3.3 billion at December 31, 2001.

3

The following table shows the independent ratings and 2003 net written premiums (in millions) of AFG's major property and casualty insurance subsidiaries. AFG continues to focus on growth opportunities in what it believes to be more profitable specialty businesses.

   

Company                          (Ratings - AM Best/S&P)

Net Written Premiums 

         

Ongoing Businesses

       

  Great American Pool(*)

A   

$1,059 

 

  Republic Indemnity

A-

A   

273 

 

  Mid-Continent

A   

248 

 

  American Empire Surplus Lines

A   

161 

 

  National Interstate

A-

n/a  

149 

 

  Other

   

16 

 

Businesses sold in 2003 through sale date

       

  Infinity (through mid-February)

n/a

n/a  

84 

 

  GAI direct-to-consumer (through April)

n/a

n/a  

    22 

 
     

$2,012 

 
         

(*)    The Great American Pool represents approximately 10 subsidiaries.

(n/a)  Not available/not applicable.

 

Performance measures such as underwriting profit or loss and related combined ratios are often used by property and casualty insurers to help users of their financial statements better understand the Company's performance. See Note C - "Segment of Operations" to the financial statements for the reconciliation of AFG's operating profit by significant business segment to the consolidated Statement of Operations.

4

The following table shows the performance of AFG's property and casualty insurance operations (dollars in millions):

 

2003 

2002 

2001   

       

Gross written premiums (a)

$3,508 

$3,935 

$3,520   

Ceded reinsurance (a)

(1,496)

(1,521)

  (938)  

Net written premiums

$2,012 

$2,414 

$2,582(b)

       

Net earned premiums

$1,909 

$2,403 

$2,594   

Loss and LAE

1,353 

1,783 

1,978   

Asbestos litigation settlement

-    

30 

-      

Special A&E charge

-    

-    

69(c)

Underwriting expenses

532 

606 

736   

Policyholder dividends

     2 

     8 

_____5   

Underwriting gain (loss)

$   22 

($   24)

($  194)  

       

GAAP ratios:

     

  Loss and LAE ratio

70.9%

75.4%

78.9%  

  Underwriting expense ratio

27.9 

25.3 

28.4   

  Policyholder dividend ratio

    .1 

    .3 

    .2   

  Combined ratio (d)

  98.9%

 101.0%

 107.5%  

       

Statutory ratios:

     

  Loss and LAE ratio

72.1%

76.3%

80.2%  

  Underwriting expense ratio

28.0 

25.0 

28.3   

  Policyholder dividend ratio

    .2 

    .2 

    .3   

  Combined ratio (d)

 100.3%

 101.5%

 108.8%  

       

Industry statutory combined ratio (e)

     

  All lines

101.1%

107.4%

115.9%  

  Commercial lines

103.6%

107.7%

117.1%  

   

(a)

Excludes the following premiums that were written under special arrangements on behalf of, and fully reinsured to, Infinity (following its sale in February) and the purchasers of the commercial lines and Japanese divisions: 2003 - $122 million; 2002 - $173 million; and 2001 - $143 million.

(b)

Before a reduction of $29.7 million for unearned premium transfer related to the sale of the Japanese division.

(c)

Excludes a $31 million charge recorded by Transport, which has been reclassified to Discontinued Operations in AFG's Statement of Operations.

(d)

The 2003 combined ratios include 2.3 percentage points related to an arbitration decision for GAI's share of a 1995 property fire and business interruption claim. The 2002 combined ratios include 1.2 percentage points (GAAP) and 1.3 points (statutory) related to the A.P. Green asbestos litigation settlement. The 2001 combined ratios include 2.7 percentage points for the third quarter strengthening of insurance reserves relating to A&E matters and 1 percentage point attributable to the attack on the World Trade Center.

(e)

Ratios are derived from "Best's Review/Preview - Property/Casualty"
(January 2004 Edition).

   

As with other property and casualty insurers, AFG's operating results can be adversely affected by unpredictable catastrophe losses. Certain natural disasters (hurricanes, earthquakes, tornadoes, floods, forest fires, etc.) and other incidents of major loss (explosions, civil disorder, fires, etc.) are classified as catastrophes by industry associations. Losses from these incidents are usually tracked separately from other business of insurers because of their sizable effects on overall operations. AFG generally seeks to reduce its exposure to such events through individual risk selection and the purchase of reinsurance. Total net losses to AFG's insurance operations from catastrophes were $17 million in 2003; $7 million in 2002 and $42 million in 2001. These amounts are included in the tables herein. AFG's catastrophe losses in 2001 included $25 million related to the terrorist attack on the World Trade Center.

The Terrorism Risk Insurance Act of 2002 ("TRIA") is to be in effect until the end of 2005 and establishes a temporary Terrorism Risk Insurance Program which requires commercial insurers to offer virtually all policyholders coverage for certain "acts of terrorism" as defined by TRIA. This federal legislation provides

5

that coverage may not materially differ from the terms, amounts, and other coverage limitations applicable to losses arising from occurrences other than terrorism. The federal government provides some stop loss insurance to insurers after an act has been certified by the government as an act of terrorism and after an insurer has paid losses in excess of a deductible. The deductible progresses from 7% to 15% of direct earned premium in each of the three program years. TRIA supersedes state insurance law to the extent that such law is inconsistent with its terms.

AFG incurred no losses due to "acts of terrorism" in 2003. For 2004, AFG would have to sustain losses in excess of $244 million to be eligible for the reinsurance under TRIA. AFG believes that it is unlikely that its losses in the event of a terrorist act would be so significant as to exceed the deductible necessary to participate in the federal reinsurance. AFG generally seeks to limit its exposure to catastrophe losses including those arising from terrorist acts. AFG is complying with the obligations of TRIA to offer coverage but continues to review its business with consideration of the price it charges for such coverage, as well as through management of individual risk selection.

Specialty

General  The Specialty group emphasizes the writing of specialized insurance coverage where AFG personnel are experts in particular lines of business or customer groups. The following are examples of such specialty businesses:

Property and Transportation

 
   

  Inland and Ocean Marine

Provides coverage primarily for marine cargo, boat dealers, marina operators/dealers, excursion vessels, builder's risk, contractor's equipment, excess property and motor truck cargo.

   

  Agricultural-related

Provides federally reinsured multi-peril crop (allied lines) insurance covering most perils as well as crop hail, equine mortality and other coverages for full-time operating farms/ranches and agribusiness operations on a nationwide basis.

   

  Commercial Automobile

Markets customized insurance programs for various transportation operations (such as busses and trucks), and a specialized physical damage product for the trucking industry.

Specialty Casualty

 
   

  Executive and Professional     Liability

Markets coverage for attorneys, architects and engineers, and for directors and officers of businesses and not-for-profit organizations.

   

  Umbrella and Excess Liability

Provides higher layer liability coverage in excess of primary layers.

   

  Excess and Surplus

Specially designed insurance products offered to those that can't find coverage in standard markets.

   

Specialty Financial

 
   

  Fidelity and Surety Bonds

Provides surety coverage for various types of contractors and public and private corporations and fidelity and crime coverage for government, mercantile and financial institutions.

   

  Collateral Protection

Provides coverage for insurance risk management programs for lending and leasing institutions.

   

California Workers' Compensation

 
   

  Workers' Compensation

Writes coverage for prescribed benefits payable to employees (principally in California) who are injured on the job.

6

Specialization is the key element to the underwriting success of these business units. Each unit has independent management with significant operating autonomy to oversee the important operational functions of its business such as underwriting, pricing, marketing, policy processing and claims service. These specialty businesses are opportunistic and their premium volume will vary based on prevailing market conditions. AFG continually evaluates expansion in existing markets and opportunities in new specialty markets that meet its profitability objectives.

The U.S. geographic distribution of the Specialty group's statutory direct written premiums in 2003 compared to 1999 is shown below. Amounts exclude business written under special arrangements on behalf of, and fully reinsured to, the purchasers of the divisions sold in 2003 and 1999.

 

2003 

1999 

   

2003 

1999 

California

20.7%

26.3%

 

Oklahoma

2.6 

3.3 

Texas

8.7 

7.8 

 

New Jersey

2.6 

2.5 

Florida

5.8 

4.4 

 

Missouri

2.1 

*  

New York

5.0 

5.7 

 

Michigan

2.1 

*  

Illinois

4.4 

4.0 

 

Indiana

2.0 

*  

Ohio

3.0 

2.2 

 

Massachusetts

*  

3.7 

Georgia

2.9 

2.0 

 

North Dakota

*  

2.1 

Pennsylvania

2.8%

2.3%

 

Other

 35.3 

 33.7 

         

100.0%

100.0%

                

           

(*) less than 2%

             

The following table sets forth a distribution of statutory net written premiums for AFG's Specialty group by NAIC annual statement line for 2003 compared to 1999.

 

2003 

1999 

Other liability

29.0%

19.3%

Workers' compensation

16.5 

18.7 

Auto liability

8.8 

9.3 

Commercial multi-peril

7.7 

9.8 

Inland marine

6.9 

13.3 

Fidelity and surety

5.6 

4.9 

Collateral protection

5.3 

2.7 

Auto physical damage

4.8 

4.5 

Allied lines

3.8 

5.9 

Product liability

3.5 

*  

Ocean marine

3.4 

3.7 

General aviation

*  

2.8 

Other

  4.7 

  5.1 

 

100.0%

100.0%

                  

   

(*) less than 2%

   
     
     
     
     

 

7

The following table shows the performance of AFG's Specialty group insurance operations (dollars in millions):

 

2003 

2002 

2001   

       

Gross written premiums (a):

   

   

  Property and Transportation

$1,142 

$  886 

$  742   

  Specialty Casualty

1,413 

1,235 

859   

  Specialty Financial

396 

332 

356   

  California Workers' Compensation

290 

229 

243   

  Other

     2 

    31 

    36   

  

$3,243 

$2,713 

$2,236   

       

Net written premiums:

     

  Property and Transportation

$  515 

$  413 

$  506   

  Specialty Casualty

679 

609 

512   

  Specialty Financial

302 

255 

247   

  California Workers' Compensation

271 

219 

236   

  Other

    87 

    81 

    41   

 

$1,854 

$1,577 

$1,542(b)

       

GAAP combined ratio:

     

  Property and Transportation

87.8%

90.1%

96.7%  

  Specialty Casualty

98.2 

106.6 

111.5   

  Specialty Financial

108.3 

101.4 

80.1   

  California Workers' Compensation

92.0 

96.4 

104.8   

Total Specialty GAAP combined ratio

 96.0%

 98.4%

101.7%  

Total Specialty statutory combined ratio

97.7%

100.1%

104.6%  

       

Industry statutory combined ratio (c)

103.6%

107.7%

117.1%  

       

(a)

Excludes the following premiums that were written under special arrangements on behalf of, and fully reinsured to, the purchasers of the Commercial lines and Japanese divisions: 2003 - $26 million; 2002 -$173 million; and 2001 - $143 million.

(b)

Before a reduction of $29.7 million for the unearned premium transfer related to the sale of the Japanese division.

(c)

Represents the commercial industry statutory combined ratio derived from "Best's Review/Preview - Property/Casualty" (January 2004 Edition).

   

Marketing  The Specialty group operations direct their sales efforts primarily through independent property and casualty insurance agents and brokers, although portions are written through employee agents. These businesses write insurance through several thousand agents and brokers and have approximately 450,000 policies in force.

Competition  These businesses compete with other individual insurers, state funds and insurance groups of varying sizes, some of which are mutual insurance companies possessing competitive advantages in that all their profits inure to their policyholders. They also compete with self-insurance plans, captive programs and risk retention groups. Due to the specialty nature of these coverages, competition is based primarily on service to policyholders and agents, specific characteristics of products offered and reputation for claims handling. Price, commissions and profit sharing terms are also important factors. Management believes that sophisticated data analysis for refinement of risk profiles, extensive specialized knowledge and loss prevention service have helped AFG's Specialty group compete successfully.

 

8

Personal

The Personal group wrote primarily nonstandard private passenger automobile liability and physical damage insurance, and to a lesser extent, homeowners' insurance. AFG sold 61% of Infinity Property and Casualty Corporation in a February 2003 public offering and its remaining stake in Infinity in December 2003. In April 2003, AFG sold two of its subsidiaries that market automobile insurance directly to customers. The businesses sold in these transactions represented 92% of the Personal group's 2002 net written premiums.

Reinsurance

Consistent with standard practice of most insurance companies, AFG reinsures a portion of its business with other insurance companies and assumes a relatively small amount of business from other insurers. Ceding reinsurance permits diversification of risks and limits the maximum loss arising from large or unusually hazardous risks or catastrophic events. The availability and cost of reinsurance are subject to prevailing market conditions which may affect the volume and profitability of business that is written. AFG is subject to credit risk with respect to its reinsurers, as the ceding of risk to reinsurers generally does not relieve AFG of its liability to its insureds until claims are fully settled.

AFG regularly monitors the financial strength of its reinsurers. This process periodically results in the transfer of risks to more financially secure reinsurers. Substantially all reinsurance is ceded to reinsurers having more than $100 million in capital and A.M. Best ratings of "A-" or better. AFG further minimizes the credit risk of certain ceding arrangements by entering into the contracts on a "funds withheld" basis. Under "funds withheld" arrangements, AFG retains ceded premiums to fund ceded losses as they become due from the reinsurer. As an alternative method to reduce credit risk, AFG has, on occasion, required reinsurers to secure recoverables due under reinsurance agreements by establishing letters of credit. Excluding Infinity, Mitsui and Ohio Casualty (discussed below), approximately half of AFG's total reinsurance recoverable (net, of funds withheld) at December 31, 2003, was with the following companies: American Re-Insurance Company, Swiss Reinsurance America Corporation, Gene ral Reinsurance Corporation, X.L. Reinsurance America, Inc., Employers Reinsurance Corporation, Converium Reinsurance North America, Inc., Berkley Insurance Company, Everest Reinsurance Company, Folksamerica Reinsurance Company, Transatlantic Reinsurance Company, and Hanover Reinsurance Company, Ltd.

Reinsurance is provided on one of two bases, facultative or treaty. Facultative reinsurance is generally provided on a risk by risk basis. Individual risks are ceded and assumed based on an offer and acceptance of risk by each party to the transaction. Treaty reinsurance provides for risks meeting prescribed criteria to be automatically ceded and assumed according to contract provisions. The following table presents (by type of coverage) the amount of each loss above the specified retention maximum generally covered by treaty reinsurance programs (in millions):

 

Retention    

Reinsurance    

Coverage

  Maximum    

Coverage(a)    

California Workers' Compensation

$ 1.0    

$149.0    

Other Workers' Compensation

2.0    

48.0    

Commercial Umbrella

1.8    

48.2    

Property - General

2.0    

28.0    

Property - Catastrophe

10.0    

110.0    

     

(a)

Reinsurance covers substantial portions of losses in excess of retention.

 

However, in general, losses resulting from terrorism are not covered.

   

AFG also purchases facultative reinsurance providing coverage on a risk by risk basis, both pro rata and excess of loss, depending on the risk and available reinsurance markets.

9

Included in the balance sheet caption "recoverables from reinsurers and prepaid reinsurance premiums" were approximately $246 million on paid losses and LAE and $2.1 billion on unpaid losses and LAE at December 31, 2003. These amounts are net of allowances of approximately $42 million for doubtful collection of reinsurance recoverables. The collectibility of a reinsurance balance is based upon the financial condition of a reinsurer as well as individual claim considerations.

Premiums written for reinsurance ceded and assumed are presented in the following table (in millions):

 

2003 

2002 

2001 

Reinsurance ceded

$1,618 

$1,693 

$1,114 

Reinsurance assumed - including

     

  involuntary pools and associations

100 

80 

94 

       

In connection with the transfer of a portion of GAI's personal lines business to Infinity in 2003 and the sales of the Japanese division to Mitsui in 2001 and the Commercial lines division to Ohio Casualty in 1998, Great American agreed to issue and renew policies related to the businesses transferred until each purchaser received the required approvals and licensing to begin writing business on their own behalf. The Infinity agreement is effective until January 1, 2006. The Mitsui and Ohio Casualty agreements ended at the end of 2003 and in early 2001, respectively. Under these agreements, Great American cedes 100% of these premiums to the respective purchaser. In 2003, 2002 and 2001, premiums of $122 million, $173 million and $143 million, respectively, were ceded under these agreements.

Loss and Loss Adjustment Expense Reserves

The consolidated financial statements include the estimated liability for unpaid losses and LAE of AFG's insurance subsidiaries. This liability represents estimates of the ultimate net cost of all unpaid losses and LAE and is determined by using case-basis evaluations and actuarial projections. These estimates are subject to the effects of changes in claim amounts and frequency and are periodically reviewed and adjusted as additional information becomes known. In accordance with industry practices, such adjustments are reflected in current year operations.

Generally, reserves for reinsurance and involuntary pools and associations are reflected in AFG's results at the amounts reported by those entities.

 

10

The following discussion of insurance reserves includes the reserves of American Premier's subsidiaries for only those periods following its acquisition in 1995. See Note P to the Financial Statements for an analysis of changes in AFG's estimated liability for losses and LAE, net and gross of reinsurance, over the past three years on a GAAP basis.

The following table presents the development of AFG's liability for losses and LAE, net of reinsurance, on a GAAP basis for the last ten years, excluding reserves of American Premier subsidiaries prior to 1995. The top line of the table shows the estimated liability (in millions) for unpaid losses and LAE recorded at the balance sheet date for the indicated years. The second line shows the re-estimated liability as of December 31, 2003. The remainder of the table presents intervening development as percentages of the initially estimated liability. The development results from additional information and experience in subsequent years. The middle line shows a cumulative deficiency (redundancy) which represents the aggregate percentage increase (decrease) in the liability initially estimated. The lower portion of the table indicates the cumulative amounts paid as of successive periods as a percentage of the original loss reserve liability. For purposes of this table, reserves of businesses sold a re considered paid at the date of sale. For example, the percentage of the December 31, 2002 reserve liability paid in 2003 includes approximately 20 percentage points for reserves of Infinity at its sale date in February 2003.

 

1993  

1994  

1995  

1996  

1997  

1998  

1999  

2000  

2001  

2002  

2003  

Liability for unpaid losses

                     

and loss adjustment expenses:

                     

  As originally estimated

$2,113  

$2,187  

$3,393  

$3,404  

$3,489  

$3,305  

$3,224  

$3,192  

$3,253  

$3,400  

$2,850  

  As re-estimated at

    December 31, 2003

2,467  

2,553  

3,719  

3,739  

3,771  

3,278  

3,308  

3,506  

3,621  

3,567  

N/A  

Liability re-estimated:

  One year later

98.1% 

95.9% 

98.7% 

100.9% 

104.5% 

97.8% 

98.1% 

105.1% 

105.2% 

104.9% 

  Two years later

94.1% 

99.3% 

98.5% 

105.9% 

104.6% 

96.3% 

100.1% 

105.1% 

111.3% 

  Three years later

97.4% 

99.9% 

103.9% 

105.2% 

102.9% 

97.4% 

99.0% 

109.9% 

  Four years later

98.9% 

109.4% 

103.1% 

103.6% 

105.4% 

96.0% 

102.6% 

  Five years later

109.7% 

109.0% 

102.9% 

106.9% 

105.7% 

99.2% 

  Six years later

108.8% 

108.5% 

106.8% 

107.7% 

108.1% 

  Seven years later

108.5% 

115.3% 

107.7% 

109.8%