UNITED STATES
SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION
FORM 10-Q
QUARTERLY REPORT PURSUANT TO SECTION 13 OR 15 (d)
OF THE SECURITIES EXCHANGE ACT OF 1934
For the quarterly period ended March 31, 2005
COMMISSION FILE NUMBER 1-9838
NS GROUP, INC.
| Kentucky (State or other jurisdiction of incorporation or organization) |
61-0985936 (I.R.S. Employer Identification No.) |
530 West Ninth Street, Newport, Kentucky 41071
(Address, including zip code, of principal executive offices)
Registrants telephone number, including area code (859) 292-6809
Indicate by check mark whether the registrant (1) has filed all reports required to be filed by Section 13 or 15(d) of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 during the preceding 12 months (or for such shorter period that the registrant was required to file such reports), and (2) has been subject to such filing requirements for the past 90 days. Yes þ No o
Indicate by check mark whether the registrant is an accelerated filer (as defined in Rule 12b-2 of the Exchange Act). Yes þ No o
At April 27, 2005, there were 22,225,245 shares outstanding of the Companys common stock.
NS GROUP, INC.
2
PART I FINANCIAL INFORMATION
ITEM 1. FINANCIAL STATEMENTS
NS GROUP, INC.
| Three Months Ended | ||||||||
| March 31, | ||||||||
| 2005 | 2004 | |||||||
Net sales |
$ | 139,024 | $ | 84,517 | ||||
Cost of products sold |
110,561 | 72,802 | ||||||
Gross profit |
28,463 | 11,715 | ||||||
Selling, general and administrative expenses |
5,873 | 4,354 | ||||||
Restructuring charges |
| 1,897 | ||||||
Operating income |
22,590 | 5,464 | ||||||
Investment income |
239 | 36 | ||||||
Interest expense |
(159 | ) | (318 | ) | ||||
Other, net |
37 | (38 | ) | |||||
Income before income taxes |
22,707 | 5,144 | ||||||
Provision for income taxes |
3,374 | 103 | ||||||
Net income |
$ | 19,333 | $ | 5,041 | ||||
Net income per common share - |
||||||||
Basic |
$ | 0.88 | $ | 0.24 | ||||
Diluted |
$ | 0.86 | $ | 0.24 | ||||
Weighted average shares outstanding - |
||||||||
Basic |
22,062 | 20,910 | ||||||
Diluted |
22,529 | 21,204 | ||||||
See accompanying notes to condensed consolidated financial statements.
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NS GROUP, INC.
| March 31, | December 31, | |||||||
| 2005 | 2004 | |||||||
| (Unaudited) | ||||||||
ASSETS |
||||||||
Current assets: |
||||||||
Cash and equivalents |
$ | 43,875 | $ | 30,944 | ||||
Accounts receivable, less allowances
of $1,533 and $1,492, respectively |
58,464 | 54,134 | ||||||
Inventories |
122,341 | 119,817 | ||||||
Operating supplies and prepaid expenses |
9,019 | 9,498 | ||||||
Deferred income taxes |
1,625 | 1,625 | ||||||
Other current assets |
2,365 | 2,379 | ||||||
Total current assets |
237,689 | 218,397 | ||||||
Property, plant and equipment, net |
43,741 | 44,260 | ||||||
Other assets |
2,117 | 2,190 | ||||||
Assets held for sale |
2,055 | 2,055 | ||||||
Total assets |
$ | 285,602 | $ | 266,902 | ||||
LIABILITIES AND SHAREHOLDERS EQUITY |
||||||||
Current liabilities: |
||||||||
Accounts payable |
$ | 38,095 | $ | 41,061 | ||||
Accrued liabilities and other |
24,397 | 25,967 | ||||||
Deferred revenue |
13,896 | 13,641 | ||||||
Current portion of restructuring liabilities |
916 | 896 | ||||||
Current portion of long-term debt |
41 | 41 | ||||||
Total current liabilities |
77,345 | 81,606 | ||||||
Long-term debt |
411 | 421 | ||||||
Deferred income taxes |
1,788 | 1,788 | ||||||
Other long-term liabilities |
8,887 | 8,764 | ||||||
Total liabilities |
88,431 | 92,579 | ||||||
Shareholders equity: |
||||||||
Preferred stock, no par value, 2,000 shares authorized, none issued |
| | ||||||
Common stock, no par value, 40,000 shares authorized,
25,111 shares issued at 2005 and 2004 |
288,784 | 287,897 | ||||||
Treasury stock, at cost, 2,897 and 3,205 shares |
(24,480 | ) | (27,085 | ) | ||||
Unearned compensation |
(276 | ) | (307 | ) | ||||
Accumulated other comprehensive income |
50 | 58 | ||||||
Accumulated deficit |
(66,907 | ) | (86,240 | ) | ||||
Shareholders equity |
197,171 | 174,323 | ||||||
Total liabilities and shareholders equity |
$ | 285,602 | $ | 266,902 | ||||
See accompanying notes to condensed consolidated financial statements.
4
NS GROUP, INC.
| Three Months Ended | ||||||||
| March 31, | ||||||||
| 2005 | 2004 | |||||||
CASH FLOWS OPERATING ACTIVITIES |
||||||||
Net income |
$ | 19,333 | $ | 5,041 | ||||
Adjustments to reconcile net income to net cash flows
provided (used) by operating activities: |
||||||||
Depreciation and amortization |
1,266 | 1,339 | ||||||
Amortization of deferred finance costs |
72 | 92 | ||||||
Restructuring charges |
| 1,897 | ||||||
Changes in operating assets and liabilities: |
||||||||
Accounts receivable, net |
(4,330 | ) | (12,995 | ) | ||||
Inventories |
(2,524 | ) | (13,404 | ) | ||||
Other current assets |
471 | 1,078 | ||||||
Accounts payable |
(2,966 | ) | 10,084 | |||||
Accrued liabilities |
(1,213 | ) | 3,032 | |||||
Deferred revenue |
255 | 2,336 | ||||||
Restructuring liabilities |
| (167 | ) | |||||
Other, net |
40 | 190 | ||||||
Net cash flows provided (used) by operating activities |
10,404 | (1,477 | ) | |||||
CASH FLOWS INVESTING ACTIVITIES |
||||||||
Purchases of property, plant and equipment |
(755 | ) | (308 | ) | ||||
Proceeds from sales of assets held for sale |
| 3,500 | ||||||
Changes in other assets |
| (61 | ) | |||||
Net cash flows provided (used) by investing activities |
(755 | ) | 3,131 | |||||
CASH FLOWS FINANCING ACTIVITIES |
||||||||
Repayments of long-term debt |
(10 | ) | (10 | ) | ||||
Net repayments under revolving credit facility |
| (3,464 | ) | |||||
Decrease in other notes payable |
| (106 | ) | |||||
Proceeds from option exercises |
3,292 | 163 | ||||||
Payment of financing costs |
| (105 | ) | |||||
Net cash flows provided (used) by financing activities |
3,282 | (3,522 | ) | |||||
Increase (decrease) in cash and equivalents |
12,931 | (1,868 | ) | |||||
Cash and equivalents at beginning of period |
30,944 | 2,628 | ||||||
Cash and equivalents at end of period |
$ | 43,875 | $ | 760 | ||||
Supplemental disclosure of cash flow information: |
||||||||
Cash paid during the period for interest |
$ | 2 | $ | 178 | ||||
Cash paid during the period for income taxes |
$ | 625 | $ | | ||||
See accompanying notes to condensed consolidated financial statements.
5
NOTES TO CONDENSED CONSOLIDATED FINANCIAL STATEMENTS (UNAUDITED)
Note 1: SUMMARY OF SIGNIFICANT ACCOUNTING POLICIES
Basis of Presentation
The condensed consolidated financial statements include the accounts of NS Group, Inc. and its wholly-owned subsidiaries (collectively referred to as the Company). The significant subsidiaries are Newport Steel Corporation (Newport) and Koppel Steel Corporation (Koppel). All significant intercompany balances and transactions have been eliminated.
The accompanying condensed consolidated financial statements have been prepared in conformity with accounting principles generally accepted in the United States of America for interim financial information and with the rules and regulations of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). Accordingly, they do not include all of the information and footnotes for complete financial statements as required by accounting principles generally accepted in the United States of America. In the opinion of management, all adjustments (consisting of normal recurring adjustments) considered necessary for a fair presentation have been included in the financial statements. Operating results for an interim period are not necessarily indicative of the results that may be expected for a full year. Reference should be made to NS Group, Inc.s Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2004 for additional footnote disclosure, including a summary of significant accounting policies. Certain reclassifications have been made to prior period balances in order to conform to the current period presentation.
Use of Estimates
The preparation of financial statements in conformity with accounting principles generally accepted in the United States of America requires that management make certain estimates and assumptions that affect the amounts reported in the consolidated financial statements and accompanying notes. Actual results could differ from those recorded estimates.
6
Stock-Based Compensation
The Company accounts for stock-based compensation using the intrinsic value method in accordance with Accounting Principles Board Opinion No. 25, Accounting for Stock Issued to Employees, and related interpretations.
If the Company accounted for stock-based compensation using the fair value recognition provisions of SFAS No. 123, Accounting for Stock-Based Compensation, net income and diluted income per share would have been as follows:
| Three Months Ended | ||||||||
| March 31, | ||||||||
| (In thousands, except per share amounts) | 2005 | 2004 | ||||||
Net income as reported |
$ | 19,333 | $ | 5,014 | ||||
Add: Stock-based employee compensation
included in reported net income, net of
related tax effects |
27 | 31 | ||||||
Less: Stock-based employee compensation
expense determined under the fair value
method for all awards, net of related tax effects |
(196 | ) | (399 | ) | ||||
Net income pro forma |
$ | 19,164 | $ | 4,646 | ||||
Diluted income per share as reported |
$ | 0.86 | $ | 0.24 | ||||
Effect of stock-based employee
compensation expense determined under the fair
value method for all awards, net of related tax effects |
(0.01 | ) | (0.02 | ) | ||||
Diluted income per share pro forma |
$ | 0.85 | $ | 0.22 | ||||
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Earnings Per Share
Basic earnings per share is computed by dividing net income by the weighted-average number of common shares outstanding for the period. Diluted earnings per share is computed by dividing net income by the weighted average number of common shares outstanding and dilutive common stock equivalents. The following table reconciles the number of common shares outstanding at the end of each period to the number of weighted average basic common shares outstanding and the number of weighted average diluted common shares outstanding for the purposes of calculating basic and diluted earnings per common share. The table also provides the number of shares of common stock potentially issuable at the end of each period and the number of potentially issuable shares excluded from the diluted earnings per share computation for each period.
| Three Months Ended | ||||||||
| March 31, | ||||||||
| (In thousands) | 2005 | 2004 | ||||||
Number of common shares outstanding at period-end |
22,214 | 20,930 | ||||||
Effect of using weighted average common shares outstanding |
(152 | ) | (20 | ) | ||||
Weighted average basic common shares outstanding |
22,062 | 20,910 | ||||||
Dilutive effect of common stock options and restricted
stock units |
467 | 294 | ||||||
Weighted average diluted common shares outstanding |
22,529 | 21,204 | ||||||
Potentially issuable shares |
559 | 1,730 | ||||||
Number of potentially issuable shares excluded from diluted
common shares outstanding |
| 684 | ||||||
Note 2: RESTRUCTURING LIABILITIES AND ASSETS HELD FOR SALE
Restructuring Liabilities
During the quarter ended March 31, 2001, the Company implemented restructuring initiatives involving certain operations of its business. One initiative was to purchase hot-rolled coils rather than manufacture them at the Companys welded tubular operations. As a result, the Company discontinued the production of hot-rolled coils and closed its melt shop and hot strip mill operations at its facilities in Wilder, Kentucky, effective March 31, 2001. In addition, the Company decided to exit the special bar quality business by June 30, 2001, which was operated from its Koppel, Pennsylvania facility.
Consequently, in the first quarter of 2001, the Company recorded $56.2 million of restructuring charges, including $43.4 million resulting primarily from asset impairment losses related to machinery, equipment and related spare parts inventories to be sold. The restructuring charges include a $0.6 million write-down of special bar quality finished goods inventories that was included in cost of products sold.
8
Following is a summary of the accrued restructuring liabilities and activity for the period presented:
| (In thousands) | Current | Noncurrent | Total | |||||||||
December 31, 2004 |
$ | 896 | $ | 1,779 | $ | 2,675 | ||||||
Payments |
(42 | ) | (42 | ) | ||||||||
Receipts |
43 | 43 | ||||||||||
Reclassifications |
19 | (19 | ) | | ||||||||
March 31, 2005 |
$ | 916 | $ | 1,760 | $ | 2,676 | ||||||
At March 31, 2005, the current restructuring liabilities of $0.9 million represent the estimated costs for environmental remediation and monitoring costs of a closed landfill and an operating contract. In addition, Other long-term liabilities includes $1.8 million of restructuring costs, of which $1.4 million represents the estimated costs for post-closure maintenance and monitoring of a landfill and $0.4 million pertains to the estimated costs to fulfill a natural gas transportation contract into 2009. In connection with the Companys post-closure maintenance and monitoring obligations of the landfill, at March 31, 2005, the Company had $1.6 million of investments held in a restricted trust account which are included in Other assets on the consolidated balance sheet.
In the first quarter of 2004, the Company recorded $1.9 million in additional restructuring charges primarily related to the settlement of an operating contract.
Assets Held for Sale
Assets of the closed operations, consisting of machinery and equipment, spare parts and supply inventories, are classified as Assets Held for Sale in the Companys consolidated balance sheet. The assets include the Companys best estimates of the amounts expected to be realized on the sale of the assets less costs to sell. While the estimates are based on an analysis of the facilities, including valuations by independent appraisers, the amounts the Company will ultimately realize could differ materially from the amounts estimated. The assets are being actively marketed by an outside broker.
Note 3: SEGMENT AND CONCENTRATIONS INFORMATION
The Company operates in a single reportable segment which consists of (i) welded and seamless tubular goods used primarily in oil and natural gas drilling and production operations (oil country tubular goods, or OCTG); and (ii) line pipe used in the transmission of oil, natural gas and other fluids. The segment reflects the aggregation of two business units which have similar economic characteristics such as products and services, manufacturing processes, customers and distribution channels and is consistent with both internal management reporting and resource and budgetary allocations. Corporate general and administrative expenses are fully absorbed by the segment.
Net sales by product category for the three month periods presented are as follows:
| Three Months Ended | ||||||||
| March 31, | ||||||||
| (In thousands) | 2005 | 2004 | ||||||
Welded products |
$ | 59,872 | $ | 39,409 | ||||
Seamless products |
79,152 | 45,108 | ||||||
| $ | 139,024 | $ | 84,517 | |||||
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Concentrations
The Companys operations are conducted principally in the United States. The Company grants trade credit to customers, the most significant of which are distributors serving the oil and natural gas exploration and production industries. Sales to the Companys two largest customers accounted for 26% and 12% of net sales for the three months ended March 31, 2005. Sales to the Companys three largest customers accounted for 26%, 10% and 10% of net sales for the three months ended March 31, 2004. The Companys two largest customers in 2005 accounted for $19.4 million of the Companys accounts receivable balances at March 31, 2005. The Companys three largest customers in fiscal 2004 accounted for $28.1 million of the Companys accounts receivable balances at December 31, 2004.
The Companys welded operations depend primarily on three suppliers for its steel coils with one supplier accounting for the majority of its purchases. If the Company would suffer the loss of a significant customer or supplier, the effect could result in reduced sales or a delay in manufacturing which could adversely affect operating results.
Approximately 90% of the Companys 987 hourly employees are represented by the United Steelworkers of America. The collective bargaining agreements for Newport and Koppel expire in 2009 and 2010, respectively. The collective bargaining agreement for one of the Companys tubular finishing facilities expires in May 2006.
Note 4: INVENTORIES
Inventories consist of the following:
| March 31, | December 31, | |||||||
| (In thousands) | 2005 | 2004 | ||||||
Raw materials |
$ | 37,900 | $ | 49,054 | ||||
Semi-finished and finished products |
84,441 | 70,763 | ||||||
| $ | 122,341 | $ | 119,817 | |||||
Note 5: REVOLVING CREDIT FACILITY
The Company has a revolving credit facility that provides up to $50.0 million under a borrowing formula that is based upon eligible inventory and accounts receivable, subject to certain reserves and satisfaction of certain conditions to each draw under the facility. Interest rates on the facility vary according to the amount of loans outstanding and range from the prime rate plus 1.00% to prime plus 1.75% with respect to domestic rate loans, and from the LIBOR rate plus 2.50% to LIBOR plus 3.25% with respect to LIBOR rate loans. The credit agreement contains financial and other covenants, including a minimum level of earnings, as defined in the agreement, and limitations on certain types of transactions, including the ability of the Companys subsidiaries to declare and pay dividends. At March 31, 2005, the Company was in compliance with the covenants of the credit facility. The credit facility expires in March 2007.
At March 31, 2005, the Company had $6.9 million of letters of credit outstanding under the credit facility and approximately $43.1 million in borrowing availability. The letters of credit are issued against the credit facility as collateral for the Companys self-insured workers compensation program. The facility is secured by a first priority lien on substantially all of the Companys inventories, accounts receivable and property, plant and equipment and related intangibles.
10
Note 6: COMMITMENTS AND CONTINGENCIES
The Company is subject to various claims, lawsuits and administrative proceedings arising in the ordinary course of business with respect to environmental matters, workers compensation, health care and product liability coverage (each of which is self-insured to certain levels), as well as commercial and other matters. The Company accrues for the cost of such matters when the incurrence of such costs is probable and can be reasonably estimated. Based upon its evaluation of available information, management does not believe that any such matters will have, individually or in the aggregate, a material adverse effect upon the Companys consolidated financial position, results of operations or cash flows.
Environmental
The Company is subject to federal, state and local environmental laws and regulations, including, among others, the Resource Conservation and Recovery Act (RCRA), the Clean Air Act, the 1990 Amendments to the Clean Air Act and the Clean Water Act, and all regulations promulgated in connection therewith. Such laws and regulations include those concerning the discharge of contaminants as air emissions or waste water effluents and the disposal of solid and/or hazardous wastes such as electric arc furnace dust. As such, the Company is from time to time involved in administrative and judicial proceedings and administrative inquiries related to environmental matters.
The Company operates a steel mini-mill at its Koppel, Pennsylvania facility that produces dust that contains lead, cadmium and chromium and is classified as a hazardous waste. Dust produced by its electric arc furnace is collected through emission control systems and recycled at EPA-approved facilities.
The Company has a closed hazardous waste landfill on its property in Wilder, Kentucky that is being monitored according to a post-closure permit that was approved by the Kentucky Division of Waste Management. The Company has accrued the estimated costs for the post-closure maintenance and monitoring of the landfill and escrowed the funds.
In late 2001, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) designated Imperial Adhesives, Inc., a former subsidiary of the Company, as one of a number of potentially responsible parties under the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation and Liability Act (CERCLA) at an environmental remediation site. The EPA has contended that any company linked to a CERCLA site is potentially liable for costs under the legal doctrine of joint and several liability. This environmental remediation site involves a municipal waste disposal facility owned and operated by an independent operator. A preliminary study of the site is ongoing. Consequently, it is too early to determine the Companys ultimate liability. The Company believes, however, that the reasonably foreseeable resolution of this matter will not have a material adverse effect on its consolidated financial statements.
The Company had accrued liabilities of $3.7 million at March 31, 2005 and December 31, 2004 for environmental remediation obligations. Based upon its evaluation of available information, management does not believe that any of the environmental contingency matters discussed above are likely, individually or in the aggregate, to have a material adverse effect upon the Companys consolidated financial position, results of operations or cash flows. However, the Company cannot predict with certainty that new information or developments with respect to its environmental contingency matters, individually or in the aggregate, will not have a material adverse effect on the Companys consolidated financial position, results of operations or cash flows.
Other
The Company has entered into a fixed volume and base price contract with its major supplier of steel coils for 2005 of approximately $89.0 million, excluding raw material surcharges and extras.
11
Note 7: PENSION AND OTHER POSTRETIREMENT PLANS
Pension and post-retirement health benefit costs for the three months ended March 31, 2005 and 2004 are as follows:
| Pension | Health | |||||||||||||||
| Three Months Ended March 31, | ||||||||||||||||
| (In thousands) | 2005 | 2004 | 2005 | 2004 | ||||||||||||
Service cost |
$ | 99 | $ | 87 | $ | 5 | $ | 5 | ||||||||
Interest cost |
40 | 33 | 5 | 5 | ||||||||||||
Recognized actuarial loss |
1 | | | | ||||||||||||
Amortization of transition obligation |
| | 7 | 7 | ||||||||||||
| $ | 140 | $ | 120 | $ | 17 | $ | 17 | |||||||||
Note 8: PRODUCT WARRANTIES
The Companys products are used in applications which are subject to inherent risks, including well failures, performance deficiencies, line pipe leaks, personal injury, property damage, environmental contamination or loss of production. The Company warrants its products to meet certain specifications and actual or claimed deficiencies from these specifications may give rise to claims. The Company maintains reserves for asserted and unasserted product warranty and product liability claims. The product warranty and product liability claims exposure is evaluated using historical claim trends and information available on specifically known claims. The Company considers the extent of insurance coverage in its estimate of the reserve. The incurrence of an unusually large dollar claim or a large number of claims could alter the Companys exposure and the related reserves.
The following table identifies changes in warranty reserves for the three months ended March 31, 2005 and 2004:
| (In thousands) | 2005 | 2004 | ||||||
Balance, January 1 |
$ | 2,051 | $ | 3,057 | ||||
Accruals for warranties during the period |
1,736 | 398 | ||||||
Settlements made during the period |
(857 | ) | (187 | ) | ||||
Balance, March 31 |
$ | 2,930 | $ | 3,268 | ||||
Included in the balances at March 31, 2005 and 2004 is $0.5 million of valuation accounts that are reported against accounts receivable balances in the consolidated balance sheets.
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ITEM 2. MANAGEMENTS DISCUSSION AND ANALYSIS OF FINANCIAL CONDITION AND RESULTS OF OPERATIONS
We make forward-looking statements in this report which represent our expectations or beliefs about future events and financial performance. You can identify these statements by forward-looking words such as expect, believe, anticipate, goal, plan, intend, estimate, may, will or similar words. Forward-looking statements are subject to known and unknown risks, uncertainties and assumptions, including:
| | world-wide and domestic supplies of and demand for natural gas and oil; | |||
| | fluctuations in industry-wide tubular inventory levels; | |||
| | domestic competitive pressures; | |||
| | the level and pricing of imports and the presence or absence of governmentally imposed trade restrictions; | |||
| | steel coil and steel scrap price volatility; | |||
| | manufacturing efficiencies; | |||
| | costs of compliance with environmental regulations; | |||
| | asserted and unasserted claims; | |||
| | the ability to maintain an internal control framework compliant with Sarbanes-Oxley Section 404; | |||
| | general economic conditions; and | |||
| | other risks and uncertainties described under Risk Factors included in Exhibit 99.1 of our annual report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2004. | |||
In light of these risks, uncertainties and assumptions, the future events discussed in this report might not occur. In addition, actual results could differ materially from those suggested by the forward-looking statements. Accordingly, you should not place undue reliance on the forward-looking statements, which speak only as of the date on which they are made. We may not update these forward-looking statements, even though our situation may change in the future, unless we are obligated under federal securities laws to update and disclose material developments related to previously disclosed information. We qualify all of our forward-looking statements by these cautionary statements.
For a more complete understanding of our business activities and financial results, you should read the analysis of financial condition and results of operations together with the unaudited financial statements included in this report.
OVERVIEW
Our Products and Facilities
We are a domestic producer of seamless and welded tubular steel products serving the energy industry. We conduct our business within a single reportable business segment. Our tubular products, commonly referred to as oil country tubular goods (OCTG), are used primarily in oil and natural gas drilling exploration and production operations. We also manufacture line pipe, which is used as gathering lines for the transmission of petrochemicals and hydrocarbons.
Our products are manufactured and sold under two brands. Our Koppel brand is our seamless tubular product manufactured at our facility located near Koppel, Pennsylvania. Our Newport brand is our welded tubular product manufactured at our tubular facilities located near Newport, Kentucky. The primary geographic market for our products is the southwestern, western and Appalachian regions of the United States, as well as western regions of Canada. We also operate tubular finishing facilities in the southwest United States, where we can provide further finishing processes to our product.
13
Economic and Industry-Wide Factors that Affect our Business
Demand for Our Products
Over 90% of our revenues were derived from the sale of OCTG in the first quarters of 2005 and 2004. Therefore, our revenue is directly dependent on the demand for OCTG, which is highly cyclical in nature. There are a number of factors that we monitor to assist us in estimating the future demand for our OCTG product. Demand for our OCTG products is dependent on the number and depth of oil and natural gas wells being drilled in the United States and globally. The level of drilling activity is, among other things, dependent on the current and anticipated supply and demand for oil and natural gas. Oil and natural gas prices are volatile and can have a substantial effect upon drilling levels and resulting demand for our energy related products. Shipments by domestic producers of OCTG products may also be positively or negatively affected by the amount of inventory held by producers, distributors and end-users, as well as by imports of OCTG products.
The average number of oil and gas drilling rigs operating in the United States (rig count), domestic shipments of OCTG products (excluding exports), OCTG imports and inventories for the first quarters of 2005 and 2004 were as follows:
| First Quarter | ||||||||
| 2005 | 2004 | |||||||
Average natural gas price per mcf |
$ | 6.27 | $ | 5.69 | ||||
Average U.S. rig count |
1,283 | 1,118 | ||||||
Domestic OCTG shipments (millions of tons) |
0.7 | 0.7 | ||||||
OCTG imports (millions of tons) |
0.3 | 0.2 | ||||||
OCTG inventories (millions of tons at period-end) |
1.7 | 1.5 | ||||||
Inventory tons per rig (at period-end) |
1,299 | 1,314 | ||||||
Source: Baker Hughes, Preston Pipe and Tube Report and Company estimates
Economic conditions in the United States resulted in an estimated real GDP growth of 4.4% in 2004. Relative economic conditions continued to remain strong into the first quarter of 2005, thus supporting natural gas prices that have kept rig count at high activity levels. Based upon current settlement prices for natural gas futures, economists forecasts of real GDP growth in 2005, as well as other factors, we estimate the rig count will average 1,290 in 2005. The rig count as of April 29, 2005 was 1,325.
The amount of OCTG inventory in the United States marketplace also affects demand for our products. U.S. end-users obtain OCTG from domestic and foreign tubular producers and from draw-downs of inventory from the end-user, distributor or tubular producers. While the absolute levels of OCTG inventories at March 31, 2005 of 1.7 million tons exceeded year ago levels, the amount of inventory tons per rig has remained virtually unchanged at 1,299 inventory tons per rig, which we believe represents an historically low level of inventory relative to active rigs. Therefore, we believe that current OCTG inventory levels in the marketplace will not have a detrimental effect on our 2005 shipments assuming our estimate of 2005 drilling levels.
14
Imports
Imports command a significant portion of the domestic OCTG market. We believe import levels are affected by, among other things:
| | currency exchange rates; | |||
| | overall world-wide demand for OCTG; | |||
| | freight costs; | |||
| | the trade practices of foreign governments and producers; and | |||
| | the presence or absence of antidumping, countervailing duty or other U.S. government orders that raise the cost or impose limits on imports. | |||
According to published industry reports, imports of OCTG products in the first quarter of 2005 comprised an estimated 33% of total domestic market shipments, compared to 24% in the first quarter of 2004.
Since 1995, the U.S. government has been imposing duties on imports of various OCTG products from Argentina, Italy, Japan, Korea and Mexico in response to antidumping and countervailing duty cases filed by several U.S. companies. In June 2001, the ITC voted to continue these duties for five more years.
Under the U.S. Continued Dumping and Subsidy Offset Act (CDSOA), tariffs collected on dumped imports are required to be directed to the industries harmed. These payments are made to cover certain operating expenses and investment in manufacturing facilities.